N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. - Business - Nairaland
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Central Bank Starts Uniform Exchange Rate For Naira, Now ₦380 To $1 / Godwin Emefiele: 13 Things You Probably Didn’t Know About CBN Governor / Aishah Ahmad: Profile Of The CBN Deputy Governor (2) (3) (4)
| N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by 989900: 6:36pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
The below 'suggestions' are largely based on the assumption that we have a CBN board (BTW nothing inspiring about those on that board from Emefiele to Dr. Sarah Alade, Adelabu, to Dr. Okwu) whose sole goal is to drastically reduce inflation, revive the Naira; above all a CBN board free of corrupt, manipulated, and criminal minded individuals. If I were to write all that's burning through my head right now, I'd write a book and probably bore most folks on here to death. In my bid to cut to the chase and munch the meat while making this as interactive and understandable as possible (to the best of my limited ability), I'd just present us with raw facts and figures so we can all pass informed comments. Questions: 1. What was our average monthly demand for Forex (2013-2016)? 2016: US$ 1.5B -US$2.6B. 2013: $1.7-$3B 2. What was our average monthly oil earnings (2013-2016)? 2013: $3.8B (ROUGHLY) 2014: $3.3B (ROUGHLY) 2015: $1.7B (ROUGHLY) 2016: $750M (ROUGHLY) 3. What was our average monthly Forex inflow from FDIs in 2014 - 2016? 2014: $800M (ROUGHLY) 2015: $550M (ROUGHLY) 2016: $330M (ROUGHLY) 4. What was our total 'recorded' monthly remittance from diaspora between 2015 and 2016? 2015: $1.85B (ROUGHLY) 2016: $2.9B! (ROUGHLY) OBSERVATION: 1. Oil is no longer our largest source of Forex since 2015, rather remittances from diaspora, which was between 3-4 times more than Forex from oil in 2016 (and that is not even taken into account the ones brought in physically and unaccounted for)!! Nigeria is the 3rd largest recipient of Forex remittances from overseas in the world! 2. Inflows from FDIs are no longer what they used to be . . . those have fallen by over 50% . . . not basically a situation peculiar to Nigeria thing, nor PDP vs APC thing, though we could have done better. VERDICT: Our issues largely complicated by a chronically ill Naira was largely fueled by either complicity or incompetence or both, by our policy makers. You don't have to be a genius to realize that the large discrepancies between exchange rates created by whack policies got us here. It ensured people no longer send money anymore via Western union and e.t.c (which would have come in through the CBN), rather, they do directly to their dorm accounts and other means where they hoard and speculate on the Naira creating artificial scarcity. Going forward, after the 'technical devaluation' to N375 to a dollar for hospital, school and other bills, the best policy would be to continue to support the Naira until western union and other remittance platforms rates merges with parallel market or within N5-N10 of the parallel market say in the next few weeks, thereby encouraging inflows coming in thru the CBN and speculators dumping their 'stash', which would further help the Naira appreciate considerably to around N350 or less, even with less inputs from 'petro-dollars'. On the longer term, we pray our 'wild wild south-south' brothers would relax small about this bombing things, so that we can have more power supply which would help reduce our Forex consumption for refined fuel imports, while the CBN and FG intensifies efforts on reducing our over $4b per annum demand on rice imports and other food imports, hoping we can do something in the steel sector to reduce the billions of dollars we waste in importing those every year too. As we pray for Dangote and other new refineries coming up to deliver. CC: Lalasticlala, bros I beg we need inputs (You know I don't ever call you for fun). BCC: Mynd44 . . . I dey hail o! 4 Likes 3 Shares
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| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by KINGwax007(m): 6:42pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
I did not read the epistle, but I urge others to do so because you dey make sense  5 Likes 1 Share
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| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by ademoladeji(m): 6:50pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Easier said than done. All passengers of a vehicle can actually move a car but the driver is he who's behind the steering 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by omenkaLives(m): 6:51pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
KINGwax007:Me too. Jet lagged. 1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by buchai: 6:52pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
whatever the CBN governor and co are doing they should pls do it fast things are already got out off hand's. 1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by hucienda: 6:54pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Interesting analysis though this appears suited for the short term. What's the long term strat bearing in mind volatility both in the global oil prices and the delta respectively. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by KINGwax007(m): 7:00pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
omenkaLives:the guy na next CBN Governor...
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| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by vedaxcool(m): 7:10pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Interesting analysis... but does it take into cognizance the fuel importation problem which consumes a massive chunk of our forex? Emiefle should be shown the door ... Banking seems complicated enough for him talk more of monetary policy. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:10pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Dear OP, how does dollar remittances from abroad reduce or affect dollar demand in Nigeria? I think you got that wrong. Dollars sent home from abroad has no bearing on dollars demanded by Nigerians living/needing dollars. It has no bearing on local dollar demand. Having established that, remittances from abroad is not a source of our dollar earners let alone the biggest. Our single most important dollar earner remains crude oil sale, followed by FDI. 6 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by modath(f): 7:13pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Bros , I'm going to bookmark this & revisit by May 31st!! I'm an optimistic REALIST, so won't say nothing for NOW..   1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by princemillla(m): 7:19pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Am here to learn.... 1 Like 1 Share |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by omenkaLives(m): 7:19pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
KINGwax007:All best to him... 2 Likes
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| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by kollynxofodile(m): 7:21pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
omenkaLives:If na to read how snake turn human being U no go dey jet lagged. @ d op, nice analysis I've always tell pple that crash of crude contributed to only %10 of why Naira crashed, the lack of proper government policy is d bulk reason why it crashed. Couple with Capital outflow, dollar hurdind due to uncertainty sorrounding APC policy, also Buhari unguided statements and lack of direction. 2 Likes |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by omenkaLives(m): 7:23pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
kollynxofodile:Okay. Congrats to you for reading the post. 1 Like
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| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:24pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
989900 , response to my post above. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:27pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
kollynxofodile:Na lie! Crude price crash contibute nothing less than 70% to naira value crash. If you don't have healthy dollar reserve and don't earn reasonable amount of dollars through crude sale or FDI (to a lesser extent), there is no magic that will stop naira from massive crash. 5 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:31pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
All oil-dependent economies whose currency didn't suffer a crash during the crude crash have very healthy reserves to defend their currency. Saudi for example had more than $600bn in reserve before the crude crash started. Qatar with about 2 million population had about $65bn in reserves. With their healthy reserve, they're able to meet demand for dollars. Without healthy reserve and dimished earnings, how would the country be able to meet her dollar demands? 4 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by VeeVeeMyLuv(m): 7:33pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
bros you harsh o... instead of you to be looking at ways for the exchange rate to be better, you are suggesting reasons why CBN should further devalue. e b like say you get grudges against naija well sha i think the situation of the exchange rate will improve and get better if naija can be fiscally responsible. 1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by obiageIi(f): 7:37pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
O have said this over and over, our dollar wahala will end mid 2019. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by 989900: 7:37pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PassingShot: Read the piece again bro, and please edit this. Then read about remittances and the Philippines economy. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:40pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
989900:Haba, no be discuss you wan discuss? Point out what you disagree with or what you think is not correct so we can analyze it further. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by modath(f): 7:40pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PassingShot: 989900 , I'm looking forward to your "robust response" as well especially on WU/MG 412 & 447 rates...... Pls don't do like COZA pastor oooo... . I also need explanation on ; 1. Are our multinationals & SMEs getting enough to stay afloat? I need evidence ... 2. Why school fees NOW, when September is when fees are paid. 3. PTA when peak traveling period is in summer 4. Where did the "intervention funds" come from? 5. Why wait till e reach ground zero? Was it a move to swoop in like superhero cos iz not understanding me.... I remember Feb 2016 (Rinse Repeat Recycle)  1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PedroJP(m): 7:42pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PassingShot: Your assertion is wrong too. Yes, remittance may not be our highest source of dollars but it helps to an extent and has a direct effect on dollar availability and circulation. Dollar remittances home are withdrawn in Naira, hence providing our economy with dollars for reserve or to attend to demands. 2 Likes |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by Nobody: 7:44pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
So our target as a nation is N350 to 1$, that shows you are low our nation has sunk. 1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:47pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PedroJP:This is my point exactly. Not that dollar remittances doesn't add "anything" but it doesn't affect dollar demand. I may have failed to state it clearly, but it's wrong for the OP to state that remittances from abroad is the major source of our dollar. No way! 1 Like |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by 989900: 7:48pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PassingShot: I can't . . . I'm sorry . . . but please edit your initial post . . . you are my person, I can't call you out. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by 989900: 7:49pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PedroJP: Remittances are our major source of inflow! $35b (official diaspora remittances) vs roughly $10b or thereabout oil receipts . . . Data for the year 2016. Y'all should just read the article and research to cross check the data/figures I have posted and correct them if need be. The image attached is from a 56 page CBN bulletin. The data are from CBN and other governmental sources. The figures and facts are there, read and please re-read it. Most questions y'all have asked are already answered in it. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PedroJP(m): 7:52pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PassingShot: You are about to start your blame games again. The OP is suggesting for ways to earn dollars and defend the naira, you are here looking for ways to bring GEJ into it. What is hard in this OP's analysis and suggestion to understand that you are referring back to having strong reserves ? You knew you needed strong reserves of petrodollars and you started militarisation of Nigerdelta immediatelly you assumed power. You knew you needed a strong reserve to run your economy and you couldn't run and inclusive government to get aides, remittances and grants whereever quarter they could come from. Argue on the side of resources at your disposal and stop looking for whom to shift blames to. Buhari has even stopped blaming, why won't you ? 3 Likes |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PassingShot(m): 7:58pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
PedroJP:It shows your prejudice. No point talking to you. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by PedroJP(m): 7:59pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
989900: I can't totally agree sir, they are not consistent and sure bet for reliance but petrodollars is except price crash, militancy, etc. It is a known fact that our economy is oil dependent, same for other economies too. There is no way remittances can match our daily inflow of petrodollars when all is going well. Thanks NB. You may have your facts though but i am saying based on what is obtainable and clear to even the blinds. |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by 989900: 8:00pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
modath: |
| Re: N350 To $1 If I Were The CBN Governor. by Vision4God: 8:03pm On Feb 26, 2017 |
Hhmm |
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