USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

The rates of the USD/SEK is in the frames of upward trend. Dollar continues also to strengthen against the Krone, this week. It should be noted about unusually high volatility for this currency pair. Positively impacted the dollar a strong statistics from the USA this week. Employment in the agricultural sector increased to 263К against forecasted 187К. The number of applications for unemployment allowance dropped significantly to 234 thousand. It's been predicted reductions the number of applications from 258 to 250 thousands. In addition, received information about the reduction of the trade deficit: from - 44,8 - up-to -43,6. Also, it has been noticed the FED representatives, who said that current situation in the US economy is not only allows to increase the interest rate, but need it in the near future.
As for the Sweden, the market has not received new information that could affect the value of the Swedish Krona. At the moment there are only data for February. The most significant of them are increased volume of orders in industry by 12% and the growth of industrial production at 4.1% in February, year-on-year. Trade balance has been fixed at almost zero value, and in the period December 2016 - February 2017 amounted -0.6 billion SEK.
At this moment the most optimal can be the deals on the trend, which in the medium term can generate some profit. We can expect achieving the level 9.05. Oscillator MACD also show potential to growth. Though probability of a price correction remains high, but opening the short deals, seems less promising at the moment.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/07/0tybyk7alj26c5v69x4uw97q5.jpg[/img]

The GBPCAD in Crossroads & H4 Chart

When you take a look at daily chart for the GBPCAD currency pair, you will see that we have the last 3 candles are bearish candles which led the pair to 1.6513 the lowest level in two weeks after it recorded the highest 1.6798 in this month and for minutes ago the CPI released from the UK and came as the previous one at 2.3% and better than the forecasting figure at 2.2%, after this news the GBPCAD rose more than 55 pips to trade now around 1.6560.

[img]http://www.imghost.in/img/2017-04/11/ls31zfoncd439e9jxt1fa7ry4.png[/img]

The pair is trading inside a wedge since last November and I think it's the time for the breaking, when we look at the pair on smaller time frame like H4 we see the pair touched the lowest level and we can't predict now it will break it or will back to rise again, the Stochastic indicator is in oversold levels it means we can buy the pair from here.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis on daily and h4 chart we have to wait for a bullish candle on H4 chart and buy the pair and place our take profit at 1.6650 at the resistance level and around the SMA and the next target at 1.6760, but if the pair didn’t form a bullish candle and broke the wedge down we can sell it and keep our target at 1.6300.
We have to be careful in the upcoming days regarding hot news like the overnight rate and monetary policy from Canada in addition to BOC press conference.


[img]http://www.imghost.in/img/2017-04/11/7kfzwatlwvbqlt6kd4em4nqi6.png[/img]

AUD/CAD: review and forecast

The upward trend of the AUDCAD chart, which steadily continued amid decreasing of oil prices and other factors, is in the risk to be completed. Rising of oil prices and strengthening the USD allowed the canadian currency to strengthened amid disappointing statistics on the economy of Australia. The support line has been broken and greatly displaced down. So, now we can see that the downtrend is formed, though it's early to talk that current upward trend is over. It can be restored next week. Australian currency may take again the initiative, considering that in the near future, the market is not expected any important data on the canadian economy.
At the same time, next week, we expect important information from China and New Zealand, which may impact the value of the Australian currency, as Australia is a leading trade partner of these two countries. Yesterday, the AUD has increased significantly during 1 day - with 0,997 - up to 1,008 CAD thanks to latest information about economy of China, where in March, exports grew 16.4% year-on-year, and imports by 20%. In particular, imports from Australia grew by 74.8%. Also, positively impacted the strengthening of the Australian dollar, strong statistics on a labour market - recent report of the Australian Bureau of statistics show "the employment change" indicator was 60.9 K, against predicted 3 times less 20.
Today, we can't expect some volatility on the market because of Easter's holiday in Australia and Canada. So the the rates of the AUD/CAD probably will come to consolidation phase, but in Monday trading will be more active and probability of a price correction will increase. Oscillators give mixed signals, but in the current situation, low volatility in the market, we can pay attention to the entry points 1,0072 and 1,0085. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, we'd recommend to open the deals to SELL, trusting the Stochastics oscillator.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/14/zrgua74pijh0qwg0xfirh3y2k.jpg[/img]

The EUR/JPY Review & Forecasting Uptrend


Since March 13 the EURJPY currency pair has changed the direction and became strongly down and it declined since this day till yesterday around 790 pips, so large number or big loss for the pair, but after yesterday close I think the pair finished the bleeding journey and will start rising now, so if you want to make money read all this report till the end.
Firstly, we have so strong support area and the prices gave us the buy signal let's take a look at the chart:

1. The rising wave after the Brexit on June 24 till the top on Dec 15, the pair has reached to 61.8%, and it's the golden correction percentage and expected the pair will rise from there.
the smaller rising wave from Feb 27 till March 13, the pair has reached to 161.8, the golden extension percentage.

2. The rising trend line from July 6 which the prices touched it 4 times before and rose, the prices have touched again this week and expected to rise again.

3. On the daily chart, yesterday candle is bullish engulfing candle which refers to the uptrend.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis on daily we can buy the pair now at 115.95 and keep our first target at 118.20 and the second one at 120.10 especially after we saw the RSI indicator give buy signal and rose to 37 level.
This week we don't have any hot news from the European Union or even from Japan but be careful from any unusual news can change the market direction.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/18/tscv1p16cv92wqkewtjzveol2.png[/img]

Don't even think of trading news with this broker.
They would cancel all profits you make from news trading
Though it is in their terms of Agreement, I just wanted to inform
forex traders that may not be aware

EUR/SGD: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the EUR/SGD continue to be in the frames of the downward trend. It was expected that this week volatility on the market will decrease until announcement the results of the elections in France, but yesterday the UK's Prime Minister Teresa May announced about holding of early parliamentary elections. The market reacted positively and the Pound strengthened that had an impact on the value of the EUR. The decision about early elections is perceived positively because it can remove uncertainty on the question of the Brexit. Results of the UK's elections, will show surely if they move towards the exit from the EU or, in case of victory the opponents of Brexit, will finally leave this question. Thus, investors expect from new Parliament clear political and economic course. The Singapore dollar was under the significant pressure since yesterday. Stable macroeconomic statistics were unable to change anything amid significant political events, which directly affect the future of the EU.
At the moment the oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimous in the decision to open a short deals. After a significant price hike amid the news, the rates may continue in the frames of the downtrend. Now the rates consolidated and can go down. So, upon short term trading, the deals to SELL is the best solution. Upon medium-term trading, it is better to wait few days before the election in France. Based on that results we can obtain absolutely new value of the Euro in case of victory of Marie Le Pen, otherwise it will be strengthened for some time.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/19/28oqz5oljba6x06dc1mr13gn0.jpg[/img]

NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast

The NZD/JPY rates is in the frames of rapid downward trend. However, the new Zealand dollar had stopped falling and consolidated in the range 76,0 - 76,76 JPY. Yesterday it's been received important statistics related with 2 currencies. Economic statistics from New Zealand, positively impacted the NZD. The consumer price index grew in 2.2% year on year, exceeding forecasts. It is also the highest annual growth rate since 2011. For the 1st quarter of the year the index grew in 1%, slightly exceeding forecasted 0.8% level. At the moment, that was enough to stabilize the exchange rate of the NZD. In a week, the market expects new data about trade balance of New Zealand that may affect the value of the NZD.
On the other hand, the trade balance of Japan, already known, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations, amounted to only 0.17 T, although it was expected that this indicator will be 3 times more, and will be at 0.61. That's disappointed investors, although overall the economy of Japan is at good level. Volume of exports and imports grew, and exceeded predicted forecasted values. This also becomes the main growth factor of the Japanese economy in the future. Investors expect growth by 1% in 2017.
At this moment, the oscillators MACD, Stochastics, the RSI are neutral. It should be noted that since April 10, we can see formation of the flat trend, thought at the moment, it is early to say about ending of the downtrend. There're no enough preconditions for that. You should pay attention to the points of entry 76.75 and 76.2 JPY. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, it is recommended to open the short deals on the trend.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/21/07z0uks03yapl4irn81q41fa1.jpg[/img]

macphilip:
Don't even think of trading news with this broker.
They would cancel all profits you make from news trading
Though it is in their terms of Agreement, I just wanted to inform
forex traders that may not be aware

Hello,
I'm Official representative of SuperForex company. Can you provide me with details of trouble you've got?

NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
Today we would look at the development of the exchange rate between the New Zealand and the American dollars. Previously the pair moved within the 0.6860-6990 frame, but we saw the pair take a bullish turn as it broke above 0.7000 and it even reached the important level of 0.7100. The bullish influence continued in full heat and new heights were reached at the levels of 0.7250-0.7350, which serves as the pair’s sell zone.
The NZD/USD then finally returned to a bearish movement and dropped to 0.6960. This proved to be a weak support, as the pair tends to return to the border of the buy zone 0.6860, where we started. After touching this level the pair began climbing back up from 0.6960.
As the pair seems to be oscillating between these levels, we have opportunities to both buy and sell it at important intervals. Watch out for the pair dropping and also for it rising to 0.7100. This still provides a lot of resistance and the NZD/USD has struggled to overcome it. If it does success, it will likely go up to 0.7250.
At the moment of the publication of this article the pair has retreated to 0.6956 and most indicators agree that this is a strong sell.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/25/judga9i9jd0218ocpuij6w12m.png[/img]

CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

While the Euro has strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen, showing a giant price hike from 116.8 JPY up to 121 JPY based on results of the 1st round of elections in France, while the yen is losing positions against most currencies because it is under the pressure, mainly due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, the canadian dollar failed to take the initiative and the rates CAD/JPY continues in the frames of downward trend. Though it's strengthened a bit yesterday.
At the moment, the Canadian dollar is under the pressure of many factors, firstly because of the falling in oil prices. The price for black gold fell again, and fell below the psychological point in $ 50. Forecasts here aren't good for the CAD because the United States continues to increase oil production, and President D. Trump supporting it and trying to make conditions for energy companies easier for developing oil extraction on the continental territory in the U.S. and on the shelf. Also, the canadian dollar decreasing in value because D. Trump continues to demand revision of trade relations with its neighbors and contradictions between Canada and the United States becomes more and more serious.
This week is full of important events, and the market will get a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which will affect the rates of CAD/JPY. Today, the market awaits important information about the volume of retail sales in Canada, conference of the President of the United States. Also, tomorrow we'll get the Report of the Bank of Japan about perspectives for Japanese economy, and on Friday we expect data about Canada's GDP, consumer price indices and volume of production in Japan. Therefore, this week, volatility may increase. Probably we can expect for further strengthening of JPY in the frames of current downtrend. The oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimously indicate the good moment to open the deals to SELL, after the price correction, which occurred yesterday.

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[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-04/26/o75y9x2plam2kflowkf7xcgi2.jpg[/img]

SuperForex IB Info Session in Selangor!

On April 22, 2017 SuperForex held a special workshop dedicated to helping our Introducing Brokers in Selangor find successful strategies to develop and benefit from their partnerships with us.
This workshop for partners was put together by Mr. Dan Imran, a Forex analyst and official SuperForex representative for the region. Imran is also known as the founder of Sky Nova Ventures, a project that provides training and education for Forex traders and partners in Indonesia.
The event was structured around a diverse field of ideas designed to improve the Forex knowledge of partners and lead them toward developing successful business models for making a profit from their partnership with SuperForex and learning new client acquisition techniques.
This type of gathering, which SuperForex is very interested in conducting regularly, is open to both professional and inexperienced traders alike. In our Selangor gathering there was something useful for everyone. At the event we discussed online and offline promotion, as well as the materials and other support SuperForex provides for its partners. We also talked about how to use and benefit from the Local Depositor and SuperForex Money services we offer.
Vladimir Syrov, CEO of SuperForex, took part in the event by answering all questions that our IBs had in mind. Furthermore, he led a discussion on How to Be a Successful IB with SuperForex.
Thank you to everyone who joined us for the event, we hope you learned a lot of useful tips!
Important: Our next such gathering will be held between 9:30 am and 5 pm on May 13 (Saturday) in the Sky Nova Training Center, Bandar Puncak Alam, Selangor. Sign up here:
Email: skynovaventures@gmail.com
Whatsapp/Phone: +6016-6344660
Telegram: @DanImran
Want to organize a similar event in your region? Please contact our Partnership Department with any questions and suggestions.

Here is our little photo report:

OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of upward trend which began over a year ago. However, the trend is near the completion, and now on the daily chart, you can see signs of the flat trend formation, as the prices from November 2016, keep in the range of 47 - $ 54 per barrel. Support and resistance lines hadn't been broken for all the time. Uncreasing of the drilling rigs in the United States, 15 consecutive week, continue to adversely affect the price of oil. The price of oil reached a minimum level, which for 6 months has been achieved only 2 times.

On the market we can see uncertain situation: on the one hand, OPEC countries are going to continue the agreement “On the reduction of oil production”, and investors believe that it will be done at the next meeting, may 25. On the other hand, the USA abolishes all these efforts with their growth of oil production. Increasing of oil demand will unlikely resolve the issue with the overabundance of oil on the market. Amid this, long-term forecasts of some analysts, in particular experts from Citigroup (NYCE:C) about further increasing the price of oil to $ 65 in the second half of the year, does not seem probable cause oil prices are constantly under the pressure from a number of factors. This week it was the recovery of oil production in Libya, the recession of business activity in China and mentioned before, constant increasing in drilling rigs in the United States. Factors that could unambiguously support the price of oil are not enough, but the situation may change at the end of the month on the results of the OPEC meeting.

At this moment, the entry point to the market we can call the levels of 47.4 and 48.2. The most optimal for the moment we can determine the deals to BUY which can be effective to get the profit on the price correction. MACD, RSI, oscillators partially confirm this. It is most likely that after reaching a new minimum level, the price will move up. Soon investors will focus on the next OPEC meeting, and news from countries-participants of the Agreement “On the reduction of oil production”. It can slightly enhance the price of black gold in the short term.

NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country's economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar.

Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high.

At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 - 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it's 1.75%. Investors don't expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don't not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD.

Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there're no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading.

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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China.
By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don't expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn't join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend.

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EUR/SGD: review and forecast

Strengthening of the Euro, which began since the 1st round of elections in France, continues now. Political risks for the EU has been decreased and future of the EU does not cause serious doubts among investors anymore. Good economic indicators in the Eurozone, allow the Euro to grow, against most of currencies including the SGD. So we can see that on the chart of the EUR/SGD was formed by the rapid upward trend which may continue in the future. The value of the Euro reached the price 1.5455 SGD which is the highest level for the last 12 months.This week, the Euro also strengthened significantly against the USD, reaching the highest for the 6 months level.

Obtained data on GDP matched with expectations of investors, as well as recently received data about the consumer price index, so they continue to invest in Euro. At the same time, the Singapore dollar is losing value and can't find an incentive to strengthen. Received today data about Domestic Exports of Non Oil (NODX) in Singapore decreased to - 0.7 % yoy while investors were expecting for 12.4% growth considering that last month NODX volumes increased up to 16.5% yoy It should be noted that fall of exports, has been fixed for the first time in 6 months, so the market took it negatively.
New upward trend will probably continue, but in the near future we can expect for price correction. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI, unanimously indicate a good moment to open the short deals against the trend. Though upon medium-term trading it is better to open the deals on the trend.

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NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

Since the beginning of the year, the rates of the NZD/JPY continued in the frames of the rapid downtrend, however, the situation began to change and the current trend is under threat to change. On the chart has traced the new upward trend. It is too early to speak about the final change, but probability remains high. Both support line and resistance line have been removed. Though if the resistance line shifted in the downward direction, the support line has been reversed up.
So, Why the trend has begun to change its direction? In the beginning of the month, the Japanese yen came under the pressure because of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The conflict at any moment could go to the active zone and Japan could be involved in this conflict. So, the yen has lost positions against most currencies. Amid the geopolitical risks for Japan, the new Zealand dollar has been supported by positive data about retail volume which rose in the 1st quarter of 2017 in 1.5% against the forecast of 0.9%. It was the sharpest increase in retail trade since the second quarter of 2016. In addition, the number of tourists in April, continues to grow, increasing by 20% year on year. Strengthening of the NZD also contributes by the rising commodity prices, including oil.
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen managed to take the initiative again due to yesterday's data about the Japanese economy. Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 0.5%, coinciding with the forecasts of investors, and in year on year increasing was 2.2%, against forecasted 1.7%. In addition, second month in a row, orders for machinery have increased, although investors expected more than actual + 1.4% growth.
At the moment, the value of NZD consolidated in the range of 76.7 - 77.1 JPY. This levels are good entry points to the market. At the moment, the most optimal can be the deals to BUY, considering that today the market is expecting for the data about the milk price index. It will be published today and can support the NZD in the short term perspective. MACD, RSI oscillators confirm this and also signal a good moment for opening the deals to BUY. As for the medium-term trading, next week we'll get the data about the trade balance and export volumes - both from Japan and New Zealand. So, both currencies can get support and go up in price.

CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time was in the frames of the rapid downward trend, but now the situation can be changed: the trend had lost its intensity and the canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed and we can see that resistance line has been shifted, and the support line had turned up. However, given that strengthening of the CAD, is mainly based on the increasing of oil prices, which continues to grow amid upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume a declining for the next few weeks. And this will happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend the agreement On the reduction of oil and in case if not extended. The reason is that extending of the agreement by the OPEC does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all effect, and higher prices will only motivate for further increasing of oil production. this has been proven in practice.
The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: trade balance of Japan was 0.1 T in April, although investors expected level of 0.25 T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8% and
the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future it is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support JPY is not expected at all.
Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a 5 week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be most effective at this moment upon short term trading.

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XAU/USD (GOLD): Short review and forecast

This week prices for Gold continue to grow. The main factor of growth, of course, was the terrorist attack in Manchester, which forced investors to turn to less risky assets. In addition, the growth of prices continued amid the weak dollar and based on the results of the FOMC Committee meeting, where was designated plans of the US Central Bank to reduce the balance before the end of this year. The FED, which had planned a rate increase this year 2 times, began doubt about necessity for further growth of the rate due to weak economic indicators and slowdown of the economy, although the probability of a rate hike in June remains high. Of course it's also impacted the value of GOLD. Political instability in the United States and possibility of beginning a full and protracted political crisis also, contributes the growth.
So, there're a lot of factors which say about further increasing of prices. We can say for sure that the upward trend will continue and increase its intensity in the near future. It should be noted that the rates was carried out with high volatility in a wide range, but now the situation changes and the upward trend is more stable, which is clearly seen on the chart.
Thus, we can say that at the moment, the deals to BUY are more effective. Oscillator MACD confirms this.

OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices are gradually decreasing. Extension of the Pact on "Reducing of oil extraction" does not change the situation, as it was expected. OPEC's attempt to impact the market with the help of this agreement will be doomed, amid news about increasing of drilling activity in the USA, 19th week in a row, and increasing of oil production in Libya which haven't joint the agreement on "Reducing of oil extraction". At the same time, in order for achieving the balance on the market and oil prices growth, it is necessary to reduce oil extraction by all countries-manufacturers but this does not happen, and the reserves of crude oil on the market are close to record levels. Thus, the supply continues to exceed demand on the market.
Despite the dominant number of negative signals on the market, the rates of oil continues in the frames of the upward trend, though it is solely by inertia, and it's not based on objective factors. There're no perspectives for further growth at the moment. Most likely, in the near future, the upward trend will be changed to the flat trend which has already been formed. Lines of support and resistance can be fixed at the levels of 44.5 and $ 54 a barrel mark CL/WTI.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment. Today investors are waiting for the data about oil stocks from the American petroleum Institute. Investors expect a reduction of oil reserves that may support oil prices a bit. Therefore, upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY. But upon medium-term trading, the deals to SELL can be more effective.

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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

Since the beginning of April, the rates of USD/SEK continue in the frames of the downtrend. While the U.S dollar is under the pressure due to political scandals of the administration of D. Trump and slowdown of US economic growth, the Swedish Krona continues to strengthen, and reached the best level for the last 9 months - 8.68 SEK. against the dollar. But weakening of the dollar isn't the only reason that caused the strengthening of the crown. Also impacted the end of political uncertainty in the EU, and optimal economic indicators in Sweden. Published data showed GDP growth in Sweden to 0.4 % in Q1 2017. Investors expect more significant growth at 0.9%, but given the weakening dollar, it was enough to continue strengthening.
Probably the downtrend will continue this month. The U.S. dollar, however, can be strengthened for some period. In particular, published data about employment in the US, encouraged investors, and it is stopped the weakening of the USD and consolidated the rates. According to the ADP's company report , the number of jobs created in may increased by 253 thousand, although it was expected only by 185 thousand places. Today we expect the official data from the Ministry of labour, which likely will confirm the statistics from the ADP. Good data on the labor market may influence the FED's decision to raise the rate. So investors are focused on this data and waiting for it with high attention.
Thus, in the near future, we can expect a price correction and upon short-term trading, the most effective will be the deals to Buy. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time for the long trades. We can also designate the points of entry at the levels 8.671 and 8.705 SEK, breakout of which will be signalized the exit from the consolidation phase. Special attention should be paid to the level 8.671, achieving of which will be signalized about continuation of the trend, and can be a good signal to open the short deals.

[img]http://imghost.in/img/2017-06/02/457dphiq6mjbu35zh4aj70od0.jpg[/img]

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NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Starting from May 2017, the downward trend has been changed by rapid upward trend. The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level 0.72 USD over the last 3 months and continues to go up. The main reason for the rapid growth is a weak dollar, which continues to be under the pressure due to investigations about influence of Russia on elections in the United States. In particular, this Thursday, the former head of the FBI, James Comey, will be reporting in Thursday for the Committee of the U.S. Congress. Investors fear it can impact negatively on the administration of D. Trump , as well as D. Trump. This is why the dollar loses in value against all currencies.

But not only the weakening of the dollar affected the rate of NZD/USD. Also impacted received statistics about economy's most important trading partner of New Zealand - Australia.
This week, the reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and predicts economic growth for the next few years. Meanwhile, GDP data for Australia, has pleased investors: growth amounted to 0.3% in Q1 2017, while the market expected growth to 0.2%. Also, business inventories in Australia increased by 1.2 % in Q1 2017, exceeding market expectations of 0.5% growth. This is the strongest growth since 2012.
The MACD indicates a good time for short deals. The RSI confirms this, pointing out that the rates are in the overbought zone, and high probability of a price correction. But considering fundamental factors upon medium-term trading, it is better to open the deals on the trend. Peak growth has not been achieved yet, and expected for the next week data about volumes of retail sales and GDP of New Zealand, may support the NZD.

AUD/CAD: review and forecast

Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.

AUD/CAD: review and forecast

Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.

NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

On the NZD/JPY chart, we can see upward trend which had been formed just a month ago. Now it is becoming more intense. Especially, the Japanese yen lost in value today when the Bank of Japan revealed that they will not to change its monetary policy, keeping the stimulus program unchanged. The Bank of Japan also stated that won't raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Although it has the reasons for the rate change and tightening of monetary policy considering that GDP growth for five consecutive quarters, good situation in labor market, despite the weak wage growth. But the Bank of Japan stated that they are not interested in strengthening of the yen because the weak yen will have a positive impact on the economy and unemployment level.
The new Zealand dollar managed to strengthen against the yen weakening. Although this week was received contradictory statistics affecting the NZD value: GDP growth was weaker than expected in both quarterly and YoY, achieving +0.5% and +2.5%, respectively. But the index of business activity PMI exceeded expectations and amounted 58.5, which is the highest level since January 2016. Also, contributed the rapid strengthening of the NZD impressive data on the employment market in Australia, which is the main trading partner of New Zealand: unemployment rate in may was 5.5% against expected 5.7% and indicator of the "Level of change in employment” was 47K in May which is in 4.7 times more than expected.

Thus, strengthening of the NZD has led to the breaking and moving of the resistance line. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI unanimously indicate that the rates are in the overbought zone at the moment. So, probability of a price correction in the near future is very high. We can only agree with that because the short deals seems would be the most effective at the moment.

The Dollar Moving Down

Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.

The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.

Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.

After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

With the recent development we see a potential for further growth in the USD/CHF rate.

Today we direct our attention to the USD/CHF currency pair.

The USD/CHF managed to rise above its support level at 0.9558 yesterday and mark new highs near 0.9670. We expect that this movement above the support would persist for a while. The price is approaching the nearby resistance level of 0.9693. If it manages to overcome that, we can see it grow further to the second resistance at 0.9725. As long as the pair moves above the support level at 0.9558, we hope to see a continuation of the bullish movement from yesterday.

In terms of trading this pair well today, we should expect it to move within about 90 pips, based on the USD/CHF’s previous behavior on the market. Any buy positions should be placed above the pivot of 0.9558, with a first target at the resistance at 0.9693, and a second target at the next resistance level at 0.9725, which is likely the best candidate for a T/P order, as it is unlikely that the pair will be able to overcome it and would likely drop after testing it. However, this strategy is only suitable if the pair remains above 0.9558; if it drops below, we should close these positions.

As of the moment of this article’s publication, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9595 and technical indicators agree on a strong buy recommendation.

NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis

We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.

Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.

For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.

Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.

In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.

Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.

The North Korean Crisis

Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.

One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.

Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.

It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.

To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.

Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.

Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.

The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.

GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

The Next Few Days

From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.

What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"


The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.

Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now it’s time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.

We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.

On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.

At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.