Nowenuse:


Your analysis is wrong for the North-east and North-central.

Let me speak for my own north-central region first. Even in 2015, at the height of 'Sai Baba/changi ' campaign, Buhari was not able to win up to 70% in the north-central. It seems like you don't know that there are many die hard 'hausa-fulani interest' opposers all over the north-central. And Plateau state which usually has the highest voting turnout in the region is the stronghold!

Ask yourself why Buhari (APC) lost in Plateau & Nasarawa in 2015 even though both states voted APC governors?

Now in 2019 when many are already dissappointed in Buhari you still expect him to win in North-central? Joke of the year. The highest Buhari can get in north-central would be 50% (and this is if the Tivs decide to vote APC like they did in 2015, due to their jealousy of Idoma power in PDP through David Mark), otherwise PDP will sweep north-central with 70%. Not to talk of now that Igalas will massively go back to PDP because they want to remove that Ebira APC governor.

Pls don't just sit down and analyze politics of regions you don't know about. Find out from political savvy natives of the region.

SouthEastFacts:

The only place you will see Card Reader wahala were in PDP strongholds. It was those faulty card reader that undermined those turn out.

Don't forget during elections, there is always a total lock down of the economy? So there is nothing like Igbos leaving election for their business.

Check Anambra election turn out for instance, it grew by 39% in 2013, grew by the same 39% in 2015, although it fell by 47% in 2017 maybe as a result of IPOB.

Election was heavily rigged in NW using under-aged voters. So those votes were not genuine.

Truthman:


Thanks. I don't actually believe that one region is more important than the other. I more or less consider each state unique; what wins elections in most cases are a strong combination of local factors and ability of a candidiate to establish strong connection with the state.
for these two main reasons, it is my view that 2019 elections will be largely determined by North Central states. The southern states will have marginal impact on the outcome of the election.

SouthEastFacts:

You are just talking like a kid.

How old is Nigerian democracy, calculate the number of years Igbos has served at the highest level and compare it with Yoruba's 10 years, which they only got in this 4th Republic.

Where was the Yorubas in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and even before the 1st Republic?

I know you thought Nigerian democracy started from 1999.

The 4th Republic which started from 1999, is just 18 years, and each Region is expected to serve 8 years each.

The fact the Yorubas started first didn't make them special, but to compensate them for watching helplessly as Abiola is sent beyond. Even Obsanjo wasn't their choice. He was imposed on them, forced down their throat because their meaningless votes couldn't influence anything.

Buhari is in power because the NW didn't complete their 8 years, which Yar'Adua started. If not, nothing in this world would have made him President.

Assuming Jonathan ascendance didn't upset the plan, SE should be doing part of their 8 years now.

Nigerian 4th Republic is only 18 years, and you don't expect 6 regions to produce President within those 18 years.

When the time comes, all the whole gods of Yorubaland wouldn't be able to stop Igbo Presidency, talk more of your valueless votes.

Next time, stop commenting like a kid.

SouthEastFacts:
The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined.

This group arrogating to themselves the title of King Maker in the Nigerian political space, believes it will be disastrous for the PDP to ignore them in build up to 2019 election. They believe they can influence the outcome of any Presidential election, hence they are positioning for the PDP VP slot.

In this article, we are going to analyze the political clout of South Western Nigeria from 2011 and their impact on Presidential elections in Nigeria.

In 2011 election, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in Eastern Nigerian (South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%)) was 67.0% while SW was 32.8% and they repeated this turn out in 2015 again.

While other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16290593 votes casted in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4613712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11676881.

Out of this 16290593 votes casted in the South, 13890271 votes were casted for PDP. South West even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2786417 votes, leaving South East with the lowest population and South South with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4985246 and 6118608 votes respectively.

While South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22495187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc vote, while South East as PDP's strongest hold.

In 2015, South West gave 1851416 votes to PDP while giving 2433193 votes to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581777, advantage Anambra in the South East rendered useless by giving PDP 660762, returning advantage to PDP by 78985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1851416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage.

While South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East as PDP's strongest hold and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South.

While South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12853162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

Finally it is important to point out 4 things:
1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 6093068 votes.

South West voted 2786417 for PDP, 1369943 for ACN, 321609 to CPC and 30906 for ANPP.

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1989982 votes.

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured, turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%.

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.

Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total vote, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South, while South East and South South provided the other 11%.

Statistics from 2007, when His Excellency, the former Vice President, ran on that platform equally confirms this.

As a result of this, the South West can never offer a bloc vote. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they CAN NEVER influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities.

SOURCES:
https://naijagists.com/final-inec-results-of-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-by-state-buhari-wins-21-states-gej-picks-16/

www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/

senatordave1:

Stop this biased nonsense.i agree there were underage voting but whats the percentage,was the number significant,where they up to 100,000? What about the mindless vote inflation and massive thumbprinting down south? Is it not clear to you that the south rigs election more than the north? At least chiod voters are humans,what about the multiple thumbprinting and animal thumbprints in south,isnt it inhuman? Less than 100 people voted in my village yet close to 2k votes were recorded for pdp,how manage? Did you know obj had 1.3 million votes in ogun in 2003 out of 1.4 million registered voters? He had 2 million in rivers with a voters register of 2.4 million? When has the north recorded such incredible fraud? Anambra,imo and abia had close to 1.3 million votes between 2003 and 2011 polls with a register of less than 1.8 million each when most of them do not come out to vote? Both apc and pdp rigs but apc rigging is more credible and with a human face.

GavelSlam:


Yet your analysis does not tally with your reference.

My argument is simple: Your analysis cannot be trusted when even your statistics do not add up, you cannot say from where you get your figures.