Welcome, Guest: Register On Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / New
Stats: 3,148,899 members, 7,802,910 topics. Date: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 03:03 AM

Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. - Politics - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. (1627 Views)

Foreign Reserves Shed $5.09bn In Four Months / British court orders Irish firm to seize $9b Nigeria’s foreign reserves / Foreign Reserves Decline By $2.3bn In 11 Weeks (2) (3) (4)

(1) (2) (Reply) (Go Down)

Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 5:36pm On May 29, 2018
It was former president Obasanjo who started this whole business of turning the nation’s foreign reserves into an achievement to be celebrated. When Obasanjo took office in May 1999, Nigeria’s foreign reserves were just under $5bn. By the time he left in May 2007, it was $43bn. But beyond that, there was a difference in the composition of the reserves from today. For simplicity, let’s distinguish the two types of reserves as Paper and Cash Money. Out of the $43bn left by Obasanjo, around $11bn was Cash Money. 

CASH MONEY is money in the bank that you have not spent. You can dip into it on a rainy day. The best example of this for Nigeria is the Excess Crude Account. But Paper is quite different. Imagine that in March, Nigeria sold crude oil and earned $1bn from it. That money goes into a CBN account abroad. CBN calculates the naira equivalent at the official rate and gives it to the FG i.e. N305bn. The FG takes the money and pays salaries, wastes some and the rest disappears. The key thing to note here is that once the CBN has given the FG naira, the dollars no longer belong to the FG. The FG cannot spend that $1bn again even though it is sitting there as part of Nigeria’s reserves. So what is it for ? Let’s say a guy named Pastor Oyoyo wants to import a set of drums, guitars and hair cream for his new church, Fire for Fire InterGalactic Ministries. The total for all the imports come to $1m. He gives his bank N360m, his bank gives maybe N350m to CBN and CBN gives $1m to his bank. The bank gives him maybe $999,990 and he uses the money to pay for the imports.   So we come to the current reserves. A few days ago, the CBN announced it had hit $46bn. In a recent speech, President Buhari also boasted that his government had grown the foreign reserves from $24bn in 2016 to $46bn today using its special Magique Systeme. But there’s something interesting about this growth – the big change has all happened in the last year or so. What did Godwin Emefiele (popularly called Meffy) do to achieve this? This growth has three components. 

COMPONENT 1 – Since February 2017, Nigeria has issued $7.3bn worth of Eurobond debt (02/17 – $1.5bn, 06/17 – $300m, 11/17 – $3bn, 02/18 – $2.5bn). For context, from 2011 to 2015, Nigeria only did $1.5bn of Eurobonds. When Nigeria sells Eurobonds, the dollars are paid to CBN. Meffy then converts it to naira and gives the naira to the FG. In other words, that $7.3bn is added to Nigeria’s reserves as part of the Paper Reserves. Again, the FG cannot spend it because it has already collected the naira equivalent. 

COMPONENT 2 – Nigerian banks have lately been practicing an innovative type of banking that economists and scholars have described as Advanced Shashe Banking (ASB). Imagine a Nigerian bank named Seneat. This bank goes abroad and borrows $1bn via a Eurobond at 7% interest. It then does a swap with Meffy where it gives the $1bn to CBN at say N350 to $1 with an agreement to buy it back in 1 years time at say N360 to $1. This means that no matter what happens in a year time, CBN must sell $1bn back to Seneat at that rate. Seneat now takes its N350bn and buys lots and lots of FG treasury bills at 17% while Meffy adds the $1bn to the reserves. CBN has stopped publishing the swaps numbers since last year but I have some very clever friends who have calculated the current total to be $6bn. 

COMPONENT 3 – Since the CBN ‘stabilised’ the forex market last year with the launch of the I&E Window, much more foreign investment than before has come in. This is mostly made up of FPI where foreign investors bring in money to buy shares and government bonds. It’s different from FDI which is to build factories etc. Nothing wrong with FPI of course but its nice(r) when you have both. Again, they give their dollars to CBN and get naira to buy the shares they want. When they want to leave, CBN must collect their naira and give them dollars. And from experience, we know they usually run away close to elections in Nigeria given the way Nigeria behaves around that time. So how much is this component? It is hard to tell as CBN does not publish the numbers but I calculate to be around $9bn.  I have simplified the components to save time and space. The only portion of the current reserves that is Cash Money is the ECA which has $2.3bn. But as I showed in my previous column, all the money in the ECA has been borrowed against which means it’s also Paper. Next time you hear the FG boasting about growing the reserves, remember it is costing quite a lot to grow it this way. And then decide for yourself how much credit to allocate to Meffy and the FG for it. 800 words is enough for the wise.

https://m.guardian.ng/business-services/whats-inside-nigerias-foreign-reserves/

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 6:13pm On May 29, 2018
KratosCorp:
shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked sad
surprising isn't it ? This govt is more interested in semantics and outward appearances than actual governance that will benefit the people. We won't know the extent of damage done till they leave power.

2 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 6:22pm On May 29, 2018
Now now they've started deleting posts on this thread because truth is bitter

3 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by KratosCorp: 6:39pm On May 29, 2018
grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

O gosh! Did you notice how these mods keep deleting my comments? Geez! Can you even believe the jokers? Well,.let's see how long it will take them to push this thread to the front page.

Counting....

RZArecta2:
surprising isn't it ? This govt is more interested in semantics and outward appearances than actual governance that will benefit the people. We won't know the extent of damage done till they leave power.

3 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by Viergeachar: 6:39pm On May 29, 2018
Wow

1 Like

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 6:55pm On May 29, 2018
KratosCorp:
grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

O gosh! Did you notice how these mods keep deleting my comments? Geez! Can you even believe the jokers? Well,.let's see how long it will take them to push this thread to the front page.

Counting....

somebody is obviously on Lie Mohammed's payroll here cool

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by CodeTemplar: 7:17pm On May 29, 2018
We know this already just that Nigerians are so capable of adjusting their perceptions of situation to whatever massages their ego.

2 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 8:26pm On May 29, 2018
CodeTemplar:
We know this already just that Nigerians are so capable of adjusting their perceptions of situation to whatever massages their ego.
when the wahala of what this govt has put us into bursts, propaganda won't be able to save anybody again o

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by lukecent: 8:57pm On May 29, 2018
RZArecta2:
surprising isn't it ? This govt is more interested in semantics and outward appearances than actual governance that will benefit the people. We won't know the extent of damage done till they leave power.

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 11:31pm On May 29, 2018
[quote author=lukecent post=67999661][/quote] propaganda will bite these fóols real hard, I hope they have their bags packed cool

2 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 6:10am On May 30, 2018
Two zombies have quoted online polls to prove bayajida is working as if online polls equals to facts on ground. Hahaha grin fóols

2 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by lecowas: 7:18am On May 30, 2018
Choi! This is too bad to be true. Is a one chance cheesy

1 Like

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 7:41am On May 30, 2018
lecowas:
Choi! This is too bad to be true. Is a one chance cheesy
some senators spoke out early this year and told you guys that Nigeria is broke, most people didn't listen while some listened and abused them. The vocal ones are being hounded by the FG... Good morning Nigeria

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by lecowas: 7:59am On May 30, 2018
RZArecta2:
some senators spoke out early this year and told you guys that Nigeria is broke, most people didn't listen while some listened and abused them. The vocal ones are being hounded by the FG... Good morning Nigeria

That Nigeria is broke is a well known and established fact which is bad. Even at that, I don't support those sinnators because I don't believe they really have the interest of the masses at heart. Moreover, those that were supposedly hounded by the FG have a lot of skeletons in their cupboards,they only cry foul when the deal doesn't favour them.
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by Okoroawusa: 8:00am On May 30, 2018
How did OBJ grow it and how did GEJ deplete it?

Explain Mr Economist

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 8:22am On May 30, 2018
Okoroawusa:
How did OBJ grow it and how did GEJ deplete it?


Explain Mr Economist
we're discussing how Buhari destroyed "it" you guys have enough propaganda materials on how Gej depleted the account

3 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 8:53am On May 30, 2018
lecowas:


That Nigeria is broke is a well known and established fact which is bad. Even at that, I don't support those sinnators because I don't believe they really have the interest of the masses at heart. Moreover, those that were supposedly hounded by the FG have a lot of skeletons in their cupboards,they only cry foul when the deal doesn't favour them.
I focus on the message and I suggest you do so. If you keep throwing stones at ever barking dog you come across, you'll never get to your destination. Against next election by 2023, identify someone you see as credible and support him/her or put yourself in position to be selected so as to impact your people positively but right now, the question is, was their message true or false going by facts on ground now ?

2 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by SalamRushdie: 9:30am On May 30, 2018
I have addressed it time without number that our Foreign Reserve is definitely a fictitious cooked errors of paper based values with absolutely nothing on ground if not Buhari wouldn't have borrowed so much at such a high cost in three years...like I asked yesterday where is the Federal Govt which is claiming to lack funds getting enough to save as Foriegn reserve from?

6 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by plaetton: 10:55am On May 30, 2018
Okoroawusa:
How did OBJ grow it and how did GEJ deplete it?


Explain Mr Economist
First and foremost, remove this notion that GEJ depleted the foreign reserves. That was just an APC propaganda talking point. It obviously resonated and still resonates well with unthinking Zombies. That's why they are call Zombies.
The foreign reserves went down from its peak during the OBJ era to slightly shy of $30b when GEJ left office. In the case of GEJ, almost $7b of that was raw cash in the form of excess crude oil account ( ECA).
That hardly be described as a depletion.

OBJ grew the foreign reserves in many different ways.
First, rising oil prices meant more earnings and more reserves.
Secondly and most importantly, OBJ first renegotiated, then rescheduled and eventually got rid of $38b of foreign debt.
With $38b off our necks, and no multi-billion dollar interest payments and penalties, Nigeria was free to keep much of its foreign exchange earnings.

In the case of GEJ, rising crude Oil prices also meant rising revenues and reserves. But also meant commensurately rising cost of fuel subsidy payments.
GEJ was also prosecuting a very costly full fledged war against Boko Haram . The other tiers of government, the states and local governments, also demanded and got a commensurately higher allocations in line with the higher revenues.
As the economy grew year after year , so grew consumption , particularly imports, year after year. It is also worthy of note that a significant portion of the foreign reserve drawdown occurred from the transition period to the first 3 months of the Buhari administration , when Buhari scared away foreign capital with his uninformed and unguarded statements as well his intended declaration of war on Capital, as projected by his body language.

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by plaetton: 11:09am On May 30, 2018
Hey !!

What happened to my post ? shocked

Who is deleting posts critical of the government here ? tongue

Has the BMC infiltrated Nairaland moderators ?

undecided

3 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by plaetton: 11:12am On May 30, 2018
SalamRushdie:
I have addressed it time without number that our Foreign Reserve is definitely a fictitious cooked errors of paper based values with absolutely nothing on ground if not Buhari wouldn't have borrowed so much at such a high cost in three years...like I asked yesterday where is the Federal Govt which is claiming to lack funds getting enough to save as Foriegn reserve from?

Someone is deleting unfavorable posts on this thread.

I wonder if Nairaland is now under government blackmail ?

5 Likes

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by RZArecta2(m): 2:33pm On May 30, 2018
plaetton:

First and foremost, remove this notion that GEJ depleted the foreign reserves. That was just an APC propaganda talking point. It obviously resonated and still resonates well with unthinking Zombies. That's why they are call Zombies.
The foreign reserves went down from its peak during the OBJ era to slightly shy of $30b when GEJ left office. In the case of GEJ, almost $7b of that was raw cash in the form of excess crude oil account ( ECA).
That hardly be described as a depletion.

OBJ grew the foreign reserves in many different ways.
First, rising oil prices meant more earnings and more reserves.
Secondly and most importantly, OBJ first renegotiated, then rescheduled and eventually got rid of $38b of foreign debt.
With $38b off our necks, and no multi-billion dollar interest payments and penalties, Nigeria was free to keep much of its foreign exchange earnings.

In the case of GEJ, rising crude Oil prices also meant rising revenues and reserves. But also meant commensurately rising cost of fuel subsidy payments.
GEJ was also prosecuting a very costly full fledged war against Boko Haram . The other tiers of government, the states and local governments, also demanded and got a commensurately higher allocations in line with the higher revenues.
As the economy grew year after year , so grew consumption , particularly imports, year after year. It is also worthy of note that a significant portion of the foreign reserve drawdown occurred from the transition period to the first 3 months of the Buhari administration , when Buhari scared away foreign capital with his uninformed and unguarded statements as well his intended declaration of war on Capital, as projected by his body language.
no matter how much you school these zombies, they'll never learn. My worry right now is why are these mods deleting posts on this thread right from the first one where nobody was insulted neither was any nairaland rule broken. Must our people remain ignorant forever just so criminals can have free reign in power ? When this bubble bursts, nobody should say they didn't know o because a hungry man is a dangerous and angry man cool

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by honeychild(f): 5:32pm On May 30, 2018
@RZArecta2 from what I understand from your post, the foreign reserves we have now are not cash money available for the government to spend, because the government has already collected the Naira equivalent from CBN (correct me please if I am wrong).

But is it still available for the average importer who needs forex?

If so, then I will say it's still a positive development from 2015. I remember in 2015 my business was at a standstill because I couldn't get forex to pay my manufacturer in China, even though of course I had the Naira equivalent.

From what I understood then, the government could not support local forex demand because the foreign reserves were low.

Please do correct me where I am wrong because I actually have a very rudimentary understanding of this.
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by mrvitalis(m): 6:05pm On May 30, 2018
honeychild:
@RZArecta2 from what I understand from your post, the foreign reserves we have now are not cash money available for the government to spend, because the government has already collected the Naira equivalent from CBN (correct me please if I am wrong).

But is it still available for the average importer who needs forex?

If so, then I will say it's still a positive development from 2015. I remember in 2015 my business was at a standstill because I couldn't get forex to pay my manufacturer in China, even though of course I had the Naira equivalent.

From what I understood then, the government could not support local forex demand because the foreign reserves were low.

Please do correct me where I am wrong because I actually have a very rudimentary understanding of this.
Yes foreign reserves are not money you can't spend as a government

Don't mind fools who don't understand basic economics

Why is foreign reserves important?

It gives investors confidence that yes the nation has enough dollars in case I want to pull out or take out profit
Which means more investors and more jobs... More revenue and more development
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by overall90: 6:26pm On May 30, 2018
RZArecta2:
no matter how much you school these zombies, they'll never learn. My worry right now is why are these mods deleting posts on this thread right from the first one where nobody was insulted neither was any nairaland rule broken. Must our people remain ignorant forever just so criminals can have free reign in power ? When this bubble bursts, nobody should say they didn't know o because a hungry man is a dangerous and angry man cool

the bubble is definitely going to burst.it is a matter of time.
that was how they were warned when Buhari was taking eternity to appoint minsters but they refused to listen until recession came knocking.

1 Like

Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by Okoroawusa: 8:45pm On May 30, 2018
plaetton:

First and foremost, remove this notion that GEJ depleted the foreign reserves. That was just an APC propaganda talking point. It obviously resonated and still resonates well with unthinking Zombies. That's why they are call Zombies.
The foreign reserves went down from its peak during the OBJ era to slightly shy of $30b when GEJ left office. In the case of GEJ, almost $7b of that was raw cash in the form of excess crude oil account ( ECA).
That hardly be described as a depletion.

OBJ grew the foreign reserves in many different ways.
First, rising oil prices meant more earnings and more reserves.
Secondly and most importantly, OBJ first renegotiated, then rescheduled and eventually got rid of $38b of foreign debt.
With $38b off our necks, and no multi-billion dollar interest payments and penalties, Nigeria was free to keep much of its foreign exchange earnings.

In the case of GEJ, rising crude Oil prices also meant rising revenues and reserves. But also meant commensurately rising cost of fuel subsidy payments.
GEJ was also prosecuting a very costly full fledged war against Boko Haram . The other tiers of government, the states and local governments, also demanded and got a commensurately higher allocations in line with the higher revenues.
As the economy grew year after year , so grew consumption , particularly imports, year after year. It is also worthy of note that a significant portion of the foreign reserve drawdown occurred from the transition period to the first 3 months of the Buhari administration , when Buhari scared away foreign capital with his uninformed and unguarded statements as well his intended declaration of war on Capital, as projected by his body language.
blablablaaaaaaaablabla
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by plaetton: 9:10pm On May 30, 2018
Okoroawusa:

blablablaaaaaaaablabla
Lol.
Cognitive dissonance.
I'm not surprised at all.
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by Horus(m): 9:39pm On May 30, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVxAyqkQTZM

Nigeria's foreign reserves hit 4 year high at $47 billion

Nigeria's foreign reserve has now hit 47 billion dollars. This is the highest it has been in over four years. This defies the many times the central bank has had to dig into the reserves to protect the Naira. The apex bank says the reserve grew by 3.2 billion dollars between February and March this year alone and is expected to hit the 50 billion dollar mark before the end of the year.
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by uba1991: 10:22pm On May 30, 2018
Horus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVxAyqkQTZM

Nigeria's foreign reserves hit 4 year high at $47 billion

Nigeria's foreign reserve has now hit 47 billion dollars. This is the highest it has been in over four years. This defies the many times the central bank has had to dig into the reserves to protect the Naira. The apex bank says the reserve grew by 3.2 billion dollars between February and March this year alone and is expected to hit the 50 billion dollar mark before the end of the year.
GOD BLESS BUHARI
Re: Inside Nigerias Foreign Reserves. by SternProphet: 10:30pm On May 30, 2018
Whichever way you look at it, banking shenanigans or not, a high and growing Forex level is an indicator of foreign confidence in your economy.
Money does not flow into a country where it does not work efficiently to increase itself and make returns.

(1) (2) (Reply)

Fayose cries out, Heavy Shooting Now Going On In Front Of Ekiti Govt House / Breaking: Residents Panic As Earth Tremor Hits Abuja's Highbrow Area, Maitama / PDP Wins Shekarau's Polling Unit In Kano

(Go Up)

Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health
religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket

Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 59
Disclaimer: Every Nairaland member is solely responsible for anything that he/she posts or uploads on Nairaland.