Critically evaluate the Osun state and give your result permutation. Please don't attach sentiments.

APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADP will win Iwo local govt..... ADC may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

ejimatic:
APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADC will win Iwo local govt..... ADP may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

....egbedore may not go the way of PDP.... I know najeem....and prof mojeed

Cajal:
....egbedore may not go the way of PDP.... I know najeem....and prof mojeed

You are right both of them are bigwigs there.... Good permutation

In all poling unit in osun state, this is how people of the state will vote

APC 90 % of votes
PDP 5 % of votes and other political party with share the remaining 5 % of votes

ejimatic:
APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADC will win Iwo local govt..... ADP may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

I have nothing to add to this...


***Modified****

+ This:

https://www.nairaland.com/4741860/osun-2018-what-result-permutation/1#71334694

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

Brilliant!!!!

yarimo:
In all poling unit in osun state, this is how people of the state will vote

APC 90 % of votes
PDP 5 % of votes and other political party with share the remaining 5 % of votes

No sir,the results will be closer.osun doesnt vote in a landslide manner for a particular party.it will be like the ekiti,anambra,ondo or oyo polls.lets say in a polling unit of 500,apc 105 pdp 90 sdp 77 adp 75

APC to win all the local governments in Ilesa and Osogbo, APC to win 8 out of ten local governments in the central because that's the region where the flagbearer is coming from.

SDP to win 2L.G in Ile-Ife to lose Modakeke, win Ayedaade and slug it out with PDP in Isokan.

PDP to win the 2 L.G in Ede, win Irewole slightly, PDP to win Ayedire as well. PDP to win 6 out of the ten Local governments in Osun west

APC to win Ejigbo, orolu

ADP to win Iwo.

ADC might win Odo otin.


At the end, APC will win with not less than 50k votes but less than 100k votes.

ejimatic:
APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADC will win Iwo local govt..... ADP may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

I think pdp will win 6 lgas in osun west narrowly.adeoti should win 3 while apc wins ejigbo.in osun central,apc will win 9 lgas with a large margin especially in osogbo/olorunda.
In osun east,sdp will narrowly win ife areas with pdp coming close while in ilesa apc will win closely followed by sdp

senatordave1:

I think pdp will win 6 lgas in osun west narrowly.adeoti should win 3 while apc wins ejigbo.in osun central,apc will win 9 lgas with a large margin especially in osogbo/olorunda.
In osun east,sdp will narrowly win ife areas with pdp coming close while in ilesa apc will win closely followed by sdp

APC to follow closely in Ile-Ife because of the influence of people like Omoworare, Remi Makinde and this APC house of assembly honourable from Ile Ife. Ife election would be too close for the 3 parties.

Neyoor:



APC to follow closely in Ile-Ife because of the influence of people like Omoworare, Remi Makinde and this APC house of assembly honourable from Ile Ife. Ife election would be too close for the 3 parties.

Ya but its always been a pdp stronghold due to omisore's influence.anyway,it will turn to a battleground same as osun west.

senatordave1:

I think pdp will win 6 lgas in osun west narrowly.adeoti should win 3 while apc wins ejigbo.in osun central,apc will win 9 lgas with a large margin especially in osogbo/olorunda.
In osun east,sdp will narrowly win ife areas with pdp coming close while in ilesa apc will win closely followed by sdp

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

vacettetommy:

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

Apc is too entrenched and established to be voted out.the pdp candidate is even worse plus everyone understands why aregbe is owing

vacettetommy:

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

Your opinion is respected but time will tell if it will be so. If APC won Ekiti and Ondo I strongly believe it will win their base in South West.... Osun State.

senatordave1:

Apc is too entrenched and established to be voted out.the pdp candidate is even worse plus everyone understands why aregbe is owing

Good reasoning and conclusion

vacettetommy:

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

This your opinion looks sarcastic. Osogbo is having two local governments and the results from there alone can convincely outnumbered that of 4 L. Gs in OsunWest. Osogbo witnessed unprecedented development it has never witnessed in the history of Osun state and the people there will reciprocate that gesture by voting for APC.


Apart from that, Osogbo and EDE people have been enemies from time immemorial. They've never been on thesame lane. Late Adeleke also had problem there when he won Osun election in 1991. It is the believe of Osogbo people that Ede people will claim there land if they should allow them to get to power.


Don't forget Oyetola is from Central, Boripe local government which he will win convincingly. How about Ikirun where their king led the APC rally and used thug to disrupt PDP rally there last week. If worse come to worst, APC will still convincingly win 7 out of 10 L. G in the central

Neyoor:




This your opinion looks sarcastic. Osogbo is having two local governments and the results from there alone can convincely outnumbered that of 4 L. Gs in OsunWest. Osogbo witnessed unprecedented development it has never witnessed in the history of Osun state and the people there will reciprocate that gesture by voting for APC.


Apart from that, Osogbo and EDE people have been enemies from time immemorial. They've never been on thesame lane. Late Adeleke also had problem there when he won Osun election in 1991. It is the believe of Osogbo people that Ede people will claim there land if they should allow them to get to power.


Don't forget Oyetola is from Central, Boripe local government which he will win convincingly. How about Ikirun where their king led the APC rally and used thug to disrupt PDP rally there last week. If worse come to worst, APC will still convincingly win 7 out of 10 L. G in the central

This permutation is thorough and indicates you are an insider in Osun State. I agree with you.

yarimo:
In all poling unit in osun state, this is how people of the state will vote

APC 90 % of votes
PDP 5 % of votes and other political party with share the remaining 5 % of votes

You are wrong, PDP will not even come 2nd, PDP will either come a distant 3rd or 4th.

ejimatic:
This permutation is thorough and indicates you are an insider in Osun State. I agree with you.

That's just it and it still doesn't change the fact that PDP will win not less than 6 L.Gs convincingly in the west because that's where their candidate hails from and the yearnings of people from the west for power will pull them through.

When PDP captures West and APC captures Central. The East will be the determinant and that's where PDP will have problem.


Aregbesola is from the East, Ilesa and it's environments alone house 4 L. Gs which Aregbesola will deliver convincingly. Omisore will capture Ife zone and PDP will hardly win 2 L. Gs in the east zone

Neyoor:



That's just it and it still doesn't change the fact that PDP will win not less than 6 L.Gs convincingly in the west because that's where their candidate hails from and the yearnings of people from the west for power will pull them through.

When PDP captures West and APC captures Central. The East will be the determinant and that's where PDP will have problem.


Aregbesola is from the East, Ilesa and it's environments alone house 4 L. Gs which Aregbesola will deliver convincingly. Omisore will capture Ife zone and PDP will hardly win 2 L. Gs in that zone

You are right. Additionally Ilesa has six local governments that can die for Aregbesola. They are Ilesa west and East. Atakumosa west and East Obokiun and Oriade. APC will win convincingly there

Nice thread....
People who will vote,no abuses,no foul languages....

Except one or two permanent mischievous persons (they know themselves)

This is how a thread should be...thumbs up,guys..

I wish Osun Good luck on Sat.....

fergie001:
Nice thread....
People who will vote,no abuses,no foul languages....

Except one or two permanent mischievous persons (they know themselves)

This is how a thread should be...thumbs up,guys..

I wish Osun Good luck on Sat.....

Good observation. This is a mature thread I have seen so far on Nairaland. people's opinions are respected with good use of language even when there are differences ...I am proud of all of you on this thread. keep it up

Waiting for Johnyessence to come and analyze his party's strength and their tendency of winning the election

fergie001:
Nice thread....
People who will vote,no abuses,no foul languages....

Except one or two permanent mischievous persons (they know themselves)

This is how a thread should be...thumbs up,guys..

I wish Osun Good luck on Sat.....

You can see how apc guys always marshall out electoral stats and indices to back up their claims that buhari and apc will always win while pdp fans will only mouth that apc will lose without corresponding evidences.
Ede and osun west before the death of serubawon was apc strongholds.pdp natural strongholds were ife.now ife belongs to sdp while a large part of osun west is where pdp is restricted to.

ejimatic:
Good observation. This is a mature thread I have seen so far on Nairaland. people's opinions are respected with good use of language even when there are differences ...I am proud of all of you on this thread. keep it up

If care is not taken,omisore will overtake pdp and finish 2nd.this election will be like the 2015 polls in adamawa where pdp took third or the 2015 polls in oyo where pdp finished fourth

senatordave1:

You can see how apc guys always marshall out electoral stats and indices to back up their claims that buhari and apc will always win while pdp fans will only mouth that apc will lose without corresponding evidences.
Ede and osun west before the death of serubawon was apc strongholds.pdp natural strongholds were ife.now ife belongs to sdp while a large part of osun west is where pdp is restricted to.

Please,let the thread be as civil as possible...
I have seen counter foul languages in the past from both sides,yours inclusive....
You are not even in Osun....
Let's all hope the Osun people vote for who will give them the best leadership....they will be the ones to suffer or enjoy for the next four years....I am optimistic that the latter will prevail

Following...

ejimatic:
APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADP will win Iwo local govt..... ADC may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

.

ADC has no ground in ODO otin, former Gov,Oyinlola the back borne of ADC can't deliver Okuku is home town

I dey here

Mostfavoured010:
.

ADC has no ground in ODO otin, former Gov,Oyinlola the back borne of ADC can't deliver Okuku is home town

That's true. Even when Oyinlola decamped to APC before 2014 election, yet he failed to deliver the L.G to APC. The town used to be PDP stronghold but I don't know if that persist.

If you're in Osun, you'll understand how the election result will be, people aren't voting for party, they are voting for personality, PDP loose in Osun last GOv election because of the strongholds that decamp to APC what happened during the second term election of Bisi Akande would have repeat itself , take a look at the breakdown, some strongholds in OSun APC decamped to ADP, some are serving state Hon and former commissioners in APC and Former Gov Oyinlola decamped to ADC, the fact that APC flag bearer will follow the step of Aregbe in managing the state and will make people not to Vote for APC especially the state Govt Workers & students of tertiary institutions, election isn't predicted by crowds that attend the campaign or social Media polls, Osun West is a base of APC ,in the previous Bypass election ,despite the power of incumbency and federal power, APC lost woefully,If APC had given Adeleke the ticket, he will won. Omisore should have settled for 2019 senate ticket either in SDP or PDP cus its sure he will win but not in Governorship poll, APC ,PDP and SDP has the money to buy votes so money isn't the problem, but people will vote massively for Sen Adeleke, not because people like PDP but because of the love people have for the late Sen Adeleke ,people doesn't want the continuity of Aregbeslola's policies and besides PDP is still a strong party in the state.

breakdown of the past Osun west bypass election result as follows:

Iwo Local Government: APC-12,205 PDP-12,547

Olaoluwa Local Government: APC 5,316 PDP 5,618

Ayedire Local Government: APC 5,360 PDP 5,789
Ejigbo Local Government: APC 12,229 PDP 9,723

Irewole Local Government: APC 8,952 PDP 9,096

Ede North Local Government: APC 2,784 PDP 18,559

Ede South Local Government: APC 2,096 PDP 13,406

Ayedaade Local Government: APC 7179 PDP 9,061

Egbedore Local Government: APC 4,768 PDP 7,142

Isokan Local Government: APC 5227 PDP 6,539

Mostfavoured010:
If you're in Osun, you'll understand how the election result will be, people aren't voting for party, they are voting for personality, PDP loose in Osun last GOv election because of the strongholds that decamp to APC what happened during the second term election of Bisi Akande would have repeat itself , take a look at the breakdown, some strongholds in OSun APC decamped to ADP, some are serving state Hon and former commissioners in APC and Former Gov Oyinlola, the fact that APC flag bearer will follow the step of Aregbe in managing the state and will make people not to Vote for APC especially the state Govt, Workers & students of tertiary institutions, election isn't predicted by crowds that attend the campaign or social Media polls, Osun West is a base of APC ,in the previous Bypass election ,despite the power of incumbency and federal power, APC lost woefully to the, If APC had given Adeleke the ticket, he will won. Omisore should have settled for senate ticket cus its sure he will win but not in Governorship poll, APC ,PDP and SDP has the money to but votes but will will vote massively for Sen Adeleke, not because people like PDP but because of the love people have for the late Sen Adeleke and besides PDP is still a strong party in the state.
breakdown of the election result as follows:

Iwo Local Government: APC-12,205 PDP-12,547

Olaoluwa Local Government: APC 5,316 PDP 5,618

Ayedire Local Government: APC 5,360 PDP 5,789
Ejigbo Local Government: APC 12,229 PDP 9,723

Irewole Local Government: APC 8,952 PDP 9,096

Ede North Local Government: APC 2,784 PDP 18,559

Ede South Local Government: APC 2,096 PDP 13,406

Ayedaade Local Government: APC 7179 PDP 9,061

Egbedore Local Government: APC 4,768 PDP 7,142

Isokan Local Government: APC 5227 PDP 6,539

Your permutation is respected. However you did not talk about Osun Central and Osun East. please give your permutation in the two senatorial districts too and your final opinion on the overall result