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Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory - Politics - Nairaland

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Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by LordVarys: 9:01pm On Oct 07, 2018
Seen a lot of people claim Buhari is invincible.
Here's a breakdown of 2015 results at the peak of his popularity and when the dynamics favoured him. Even then he just barely eked out a victory. Under no illusions that he can't win but Buhari is very vulnerable and Atiku is the strongest candidate the PDP could have put forward.
Additionally, rigging as seen in the Osun Bye-Election and vote buying in Ekiti is more difficult to implement on the national scale than in a one-off localized election.
Just looking at these figures one can chart a realistic path to victory for Atiku. The Middle Belt would swing back to PDP certainly and PDP would do better in the NE states of Adamawa and Gombe. Bauchi and to a lesser extent Borno would still deliver for Buhari albeit with a lesser margin. Plateau won't be as close as it was and Benue would return to PDP for apparent reasons. Nasarawa has been won by PDP back to back and they would retain it. The NW would be won by Buhari but Atiku won't repeat Jonathan's abysmal performance there and Buhari's margin would be eroded there.
For all the talk of Tinubu's invincibility, the APC only got 600k more votes than PDP in 2015. Atiku would get at least 50% here if he can effectively mobilize and reconcile the warring PDP factions here.
The SE is PDPs strongest base and they can be sure of 80% at least. The issue they have is to drive out turnout there as SE turned out poorly for Jonathan in 2015. A SE VP like Peter Obi would be a strong motivator to boost turnout.
The SS is the last region and a PDP stronghold. But APC has made some inroads and is well funded. PDP would win obviously but Buhari through well funded lieutenants like Akpabio, Amaechi, Oshiomole at al should secure 30% of SS votes.
That said PDP would still win and I believe the path is there for Atiku to eke put a victory.
2019 should be interesting.
My two cents though

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by LordVarys: 9:02pm On Oct 07, 2018
Cc lalasticlala mynd_44
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Kwamecron(m): 9:35pm On Oct 07, 2018
Cool
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by landmark86: 9:41pm On Oct 07, 2018
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The land are not for sale
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by jamejanev: 10:06pm On Oct 07, 2018
LordVarys:
Cc lalasticlala mynd_44
May God helps Atiku, everybody knows that if its a clean election, Atiku will win,but I don't think these Buhari and his crook APC will allow that. APC will rig the election, just quote my word today.

3 Likes

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Nemesis001: 10:20pm On Oct 07, 2018
Buhari issa goner.

grin

3 Likes

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Nemesis001: 10:22pm On Oct 07, 2018
CC deomelo hungerbad sarrki madridguy Bolustical seunmsg modath midolian corrithians butterflyleo cilicmarin passingshot vedaxcool blackpanda mannabbqgrill



una no go sleep well tonight o grin
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by CilicMarin: 10:24pm On Oct 07, 2018
grin grin > grin grin

Ipob Analysis!

Atiku Cannot Garner Up To 7Million Votes In Next Year's Election For The Following Reason:

1. Buhari has up to 12Million Northern Votes as a starter Pack.

2. Nobody Would be allowed to write results in the South South and South East For The PDP like In 2015(Delta,AkwaIbom and Rivers), while the Northern votes for Buhari will increase for obvious reasons.

3. Yorubas are already positioning to take over power in 2023. So you can't promise them anything to extend the Northern rulership to 12 Years.

4. Atiku is universally known as a corrupt Fugitive, APC will fully play it to full sound during campaign.

5. Amaechi, Elrufai, Ganduje, Akpabio and Oshiomole........you know the rest......

11 Likes 1 Share

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by meolaniyi(m): 10:41pm On Oct 07, 2018
Apc is relying on rigging
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by capatainrambo: 11:23pm On Oct 07, 2018
CilicMarin:
grin grin > grin grin

Ipob Analysis!

Atiku Cannot Garner Up To 7Million Votes In Next Year's Election For The Following Reason:

1. Buhari has up to 12Million Northern Votes as a starter
zombie junk tales

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by seborrhic: 11:23pm On Oct 07, 2018
Buhari won the 2015 elections due to the landslides from Kano,Katsina,Bauchi and Kaduna because of his existing aura and the hate against Gej.
In 2019,there is no GEJ to hate coupled with the fact that the era of those kinds of landslides are effectively over.The one place Buhari will have a large margin in the Northwest is Katsina state.
No matter what anyone thinks,Buhari cannot defeat an Atiku in 2019 with substantial margins of up to 500,000 -1m as he did against Gej. At best in those States it maybe 200,000-300,000 because several thousands that voted for him just because they hated GEJ,won't be so inclined.Atiku is a fellow Northern,Fulani Muslim so why would they vote Buhari because of hate against such an opponent they would be asking themselves.Asides that he has lost some of that aura he had built since he started contesting,many northerners now having seen he is not so different from any other Nigerian politician since he became president.
Ditto,Rivers,Akwa Ibom,Delta cannot produce similar margins for PDP against APC as happened in 2015 because the dynamics have changed.
The North Central and how well the PDP can get out the Southeasterners to come out and vote,maybe the deciding factor on who wins eventually.
Buhari and APC in their heart of hearts would have sincerely wished it was any other candidate than Atiku facing him because they know now they got a battle on their hands and for the first time realise a defeat is now possible.

5 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by LordVarys: 11:26pm On Oct 07, 2018
seborrhic:
Buhari won the 2015 elections due to the landslides from Kano,Katsina,Bauchi and Kaduna because of his existing aura and the hate against Gej.
In 2019,there is no GEJ to hate coupled with the fact that the era of those kinds of landslides are effectively over.The one place Buhari will have a large margin in the Northwest is Katsina state.
No matter what anyone thinks,Buhari cannot defeat an Atiku in 2019 with substantial margins of up to 500,000 -1m as he did against Gej. At best in those States it maybe 200,000-300,000 because several thousands that voted for him just because they hated GEJ,won't be so inclined.Atiku is a fellow Northern,Fulani Muslim so why would they vote Buhari because of hate against his opponent.
Ditto,Rivers,Akwa Ibom,Delta cannot produce similar margins for PDP against APC because the dynamics have changed.
The North Central and how well the PDP can get out the Southeasterners to come out and vote,maybe the deciding factor on who wins eventually.
Buhari and APC in their heart of hearts would have sincerely wished it was any other candidate than Atiku facing him because they know they got a battle on their hands and for the first time realise a defeat is now possible.
This 100%. It's a very fluid and open race now.

5 Likes

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by KanwuliaMama: 11:30pm On Oct 07, 2018
Oh yes o!
Time to fast and pray for INEC! grin
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by samstradam: 12:17am On Oct 08, 2018
seborrhic:
Buhari won the 2015 elections due to the landslides from Kano,Katsina,Bauchi and Kaduna because of his existing aura and the hate against Gej.
In 2019,there is no GEJ to hate coupled with the fact that the era of those kinds of landslides are effectively over.The one place Buhari will have a large margin in the Northwest is Katsina state.
No matter what anyone thinks,Buhari cannot defeat an Atiku in 2019 with substantial margins of up to 500,000 -1m as he did against Gej. At best in those States it maybe 200,000-300,000 because several thousands that voted for him just because they hated GEJ,won't be so inclined.Atiku is a fellow Northern,Fulani Muslim so why would they vote Buhari because of hate against such an opponent they would be asking themselves.Asides that he has lost some of that aura he had built since he started contesting,many northerners now having seen he is not so different from any other Nigerian politician since he became president.
Ditto,Rivers,Akwa Ibom,Delta cannot produce similar margins for PDP against APC as happened in 2015 because the dynamics have changed.
The North Central and how well the PDP can get out the Southeasterners to come out and vote,maybe the deciding factor on who wins eventually.
Buhari and APC in their heart of hearts would have sincerely wished it was any other candidate than Atiku facing him because they know now they got a battle on their hands and for the first time realise a defeat is now possible.

I stopped reading after the first sentence.

For the umpteenth time , NO ONE HATES GEJ (except maybe Patience nowadays) , Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is a difficult man to hate for normal human beings

Just to make it clear, what LAZY IPOB YOUTHS and PDP apologists term as irrational hatred for GEJ in 2015, was simply fanatical LOVE for Buhari by core northerners (which they've always shown) and disdain for all things PDP in the SW and to an extent in the NC in 2015.

Until you recognise that GEJ was not the problem in 2015, all your analysis and political calculations will remain doomed.

7 Likes

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by CROWNWEALTH019(m): 12:20am On Oct 08, 2018
CilicMarin:
grin grin > grin grin

Ipob Analysis!

Atiku Cannot Garner Up To 7Million Votes In Next Year's Election For The Following Reason:

1. Buhari has up to 12Million Northern Votes as a starter Pack.

2. Nobody Would be allowed to write results in the South South and South East For The PDP like In 2015(Delta,AkwaIbom and Rivers), while the Northern votes for Buhari will increase for obvious reasons.

3. Yorubas are already positioning to take over power in 2023. So you can't promise them anything to extend the Northern rulership to 12 Years.

4. Atiku is universally known as a corrupt Fugitive, APC will fully play it to full sound during campaign.

5. Amaechi, Elrufai, Ganduje, Akpabio and Oshiomole........you know the rest......
We go chop buhari like cashew

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Pivotal: 12:31am On Oct 08, 2018
jamejanev:
May God helps Atiku, everybody knows that if its a clean election, Atiku will win,but I don't think these Buhari and his crook APC will allow that. APC will rig the election, just quote my word today.

You are quoted but everybody is not Ipob or Igbo. Your delusion is to your region alone.

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Calers: 12:35am On Oct 08, 2018
No rigging in south east and south south.

2 Likes

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by ashacot: 12:36am On Oct 08, 2018
Hmm, i think from what i have seen, wailers should just set their mind for possible defeat. Northerners.are already seeing these election as an election between Igbo party and candidate pdp and their god Buhari and APC.

PDP and Igbos have repeatedly insulted the northerners including even FFK, Fayose and Reno who are yorubas but PDP members and these pple are expected to campaign for pdp n atiku.

How do you now want the northerners to vote for a candidate(atiku) mainly projected by south east as revealed by the primary election of pdp.

This is a concern for wailers.

1 Like

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by senatordave1(m): 12:43am On Oct 08, 2018
seborrhic:
Buhari won the 2015 elections due to the landslides from Kano,Katsina,Bauchi and Kaduna because of his existing aura and the hate against Gej.
In 2019,there is no GEJ to hate coupled with the fact that the era of those kinds of landslides are effectively over.The one place Buhari will have a large margin in the Northwest is Katsina state.
No matter what anyone thinks,Buhari cannot defeat an Atiku in 2019 with substantial margins of up to 500,000 -1m as he did against Gej. At best in those States it maybe 200,000-300,000 because several thousands that voted for him just because they hated GEJ,won't be so inclined.Atiku is a fellow Northern,Fulani Muslim so why would they vote Buhari because of hate against such an opponent they would be asking themselves.Asides that he has lost some of that aura he had built since he started contesting,many northerners now having seen he is not so different from any other Nigerian politician since he became president.
Ditto,Rivers,Akwa Ibom,Delta cannot produce similar margins for PDP against APC as happened in 2015 because the dynamics have changed.
The North Central and how well the PDP can get out the Southeasterners to come out and vote,maybe the deciding factor on who wins eventually.
Buhari and APC in their heart of hearts would have sincerely wished it was any other candidate than Atiku facing him because they know now they got a battle on their hands and for the first time realise a defeat is now possible.
I mostly agree with you.buhari winnings in nw/ne will reduce same as that of pdp in ss/se.north central will be 50/50.this is the decider,no state will give atiku up to 1 million but buhari will record up to that in kano,katsina,bauchi or borno.secondly,there will be low turnout in ss/se
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by senatordave1(m): 12:45am On Oct 08, 2018
LordVarys:
Seen a lot of people claim Buhari is invincible.
Here's a breakdown of 2015 results at the peak of his popularity and when the dynamics favoured him. Even then he just barely eked out a victory. Under no illusions that he can't win but Buhari is very vulnerable and Atiku is the strongest candidate the PDP could have put forward.
Additionally, rigging as seen in the Osun Bye-Election and vote buying in Ekiti is more difficult to implement on the national scale than in a one-off localized election.
Just looking at these figures one can chart a realistic path to victory for Atiku. The Middle Belt would swing back to PDP certainly and PDP would do better in the NE states of Adamawa and Gombe. Bauchi and to a lesser extent Borno would still deliver for Buhari albeit with a lesser margin. Plateau won't be as close as it was and Benue would return to PDP for apparent reasons. Nasarawa has been won by PDP back to back and they would retain it. The NW would be won by Buhari but Atiku won't repeat Jonathan's abysmal performance there and Buhari's margin would be eroded there.
For all the talk of Tinubu's invincibility, the APC only got 600k more votes than PDP in 2015. Atiku would get at least 50% here if he can effectively mobilize and reconcile the warring PDP factions here.
The SE is PDPs strongest base and they can be sure of 80% at least. The issue they have is to drive out turnout there as SE turned out poorly for Jonathan in 2015. A SE VP like Peter Obi would be a strong motivator to boost turnout.
The SS is the last region and a PDP stronghold. But APC has made some inroads and is well funded. PDP would win obviously but Buhari through well funded lieutenants like Akpabio, Amaechi, Oshiomole at al should secure 30% of SS votes.
That said PDP would still win and I believe the path is there for Atiku to eke put a victory.
2019 should be interesting.
My two cents though
The middle belt will swing to anybody marginally.once buhari gets 30% in ss and 20% in se,its over for atiku.buhari will also win massively in kano,katsina
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by durangokid: 2:04am On Oct 08, 2018
senatordave1:

I mostly agree with you.buhari winnings in nw/ne will reduce same as that of pdp in ss/se.north central will be 50/50.this is the decider,no state will give atiku up to 1 million but buhari will record up to that in kano,katsina,bauchi or borno.secondly,there will be low turnout in ss/se
Mark my words ss and se will see a massive turn out in 2019 elections, I have never seen such eager and awareness before
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Realjerome200: 2:51am On Oct 08, 2018
seborrhic:
Buhari won the 2015 elections due to the landslides from Kano,Katsina,Bauchi and Kaduna because of his existing aura and the hate against Gej.
In 2019,there is no GEJ to hate coupled with the fact that the era of those kinds of landslides are effectively over.The one place Buhari will have a large margin in the Northwest is Katsina state.
No matter what anyone thinks,Buhari cannot defeat an Atiku in 2019 with substantial margins of up to 500,000 -1m as he did against Gej. At best in those States it maybe 200,000-300,000 because several thousands that voted for him just because they hated GEJ,won't be so inclined.Atiku is a fellow Northern,Fulani Muslim so why would they vote Buhari because of hate against such an opponent they would be asking themselves.Asides that he has lost some of that aura he had built since he started contesting,many northerners now having seen he is not so different from any other Nigerian politician since he became president.
Ditto,Rivers,Akwa Ibom,Delta cannot produce similar margins for PDP against APC as happened in 2015 because the dynamics have changed.
The North Central and how well the PDP can get out the Southeasterners to come out and vote,maybe the deciding factor on who wins eventually.
Buhari and APC in their heart of hearts would have sincerely wished it was any other candidate than Atiku facing him because they know now they got a battle on their hands and for the first time realise a defeat is now possible.
This is an honest analysis devoid sentiment.

1 Like

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by Konki: 3:02am On Oct 08, 2018
Game is over for Buhari.

If there is any person to win PDP ticket, in Buhari's mind, it's never Turaki Adamawa.

Now the die is cast and Oshiomole has a big task in his hands.

#BackToDaura
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by rummmy: 4:05am On Oct 08, 2018
meolaniyi:
Apc is relying on rigging
this man have suddenly turned to a 5%..............change your strategy bros
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by rinzaugustine: 5:04am On Oct 08, 2018
The men that helped him gather those block votes like kwakwanso,oyinlola,atiku,saraki,kashamu etc are no longer with him and a lot of people who voted for him are now disenchanted with him for not being able to fufill his electoral promises of uplifting their standard of living

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by blackpanda: 5:11am On Oct 08, 2018
jamejanev:
May God helps Atiku, everybody knows that if its a clean election, Atiku will win,but I don't think these Buhari and his crook APC will allow that. APC will rig the election, just quote my word today.


Smh.
Even if u ask only PDP members to vote, PMB will still win grin
Re: Breakdown Of 2015 Results And Analysis Showing Atiku's Path To Victory by gratiaeo(m): 5:36am On Oct 08, 2018
North will surprise yoruba by substituting buhari for ATIKU for their own advantage. Buhari has always been a loser, 2019 election will be north vs north

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