We have conducted about 5 different analysis using different scenarios and all returned the same result, Atiku won and the main deciding battle would be in NE and NC.

So below is our 6th analysis. We analysed the 6 regions using their voting pattern in 2015 when the call for APC was at it peak and today's trend to arrive at the result below:

But before we get started, I would love to congratulate our incoming President, The Turaki and Wazirin of Adamawa, His Excellency, Atiku Gbenga Okechukwu Akpan Tonye Ebei Abubakar.

North West
Buhari would win here with 4 million votes.

In 2015, APC won PDP with 5775k (5.8 million) votes (APC- 7115k PDP-1340k]. During that election, Tambuwal, Kwankwaso ans Shia moslems voted massively for Buhari and the herdsmen crisis in Zamfara. When you remove all these factors, together with the fact that Saraki's electoral amendment bill would cripple the use of under-aged voters because of the way the card readers would be used now, Buhari would lose at least 2 million supporters here. Only Shia moslems boasts of 10 million members.

South West
Buhari would win with 1.5 million votes.

In 2015, APC defeated PDP with 343k votes (APC-2163k PDP 1820k), but next year even though we don't expect SW to exceed that amount stupidly, but in this analysis we projected APC to win with 1.5 million votes because of their general resentment for anything Ndi Igbo.

South East
Atiku would win with 3 million votes.

In 2015, when SE turnout was at all time low since the history of this democracy, PDP defeated APC with. 2263 votes (APC 197k PDP 2560k). Next year we expect the turnout to increase geometrically to over 3.5 million votes but for the sake of this analysis we are going for 3 million votes.

South South
Atiku would win with 2.5 million votes.

Last election, PDP won APC with 4296k votes (APC 417 PDP 4713). APC made little incursion into the South South, but with the call for restructuring and resource control, we expect Atiku to win with over 2.5M votes. 2.5 million votes is too generous for a Buhari that is hated by the masses in South South. But we would let it go.

North East
Atiku wins with 1 million votes.

In 2015, APC won here with 2046k votes (APC 2849 PDP-803). Bauchi alone gave Buhari more win than Borno and Yobe combined. Bauchi Govenor is a non Atiku stooge and with him working with Dogara, the Buhari's votes here would be halved. Mama Taraba delivered over 45% of Taraban votes to Buhari, working with Ishiaku would see them deliver over 70% of the votes to Atiku. PDP is very strong in Adamawa, Atiku delivered 59% of Adamawa votes to Buhari while PDP retains over 39%. With two of them working together now, Atiku would clear over 80% votes in Adamawa. Dankwambo is so beloved in Gombe and he is the Coordinator for NE, he would deliver Gombe to Atiku. All these would leave Atiku and Buhari to battle for Borno and Yobe votes. Buhari would win here with about 60%. All these would make Atiku win NE with about 1.5 million votes but we are dashing Buhari 500k.

Middle Belt
Atiku would win with 2 million votes

In 2015, APC won with 700k votes (APC 2414 PDP 1714). PDP is very strong in Middle belt but Benue, Kwara, Plateau and Niger voted massively for APC yet they won with only 700k votes. In 2019, Kwara would deliver 60% to Atiku, while Benue and Plateau would vote massively for PDP. Votes in Niger would be split 50%- 50%, while Buhari would lose some ground in Kogi and Nasarawa.

In Summary:

NW: Buhari wins with 4 million
NE: Atiku wins with 1 million
SW: Buhari wins with 1.5 million
SE: Atiku wins with 3 million
SS: Atiku wins with 2 million
NC: Atiku wins with 2 million

Buhari total marginal wins: 5.5 million
Atiku's marginal win: 8 Million votes

Atiku wins the election with 2.5 million votes.

NOTE: This analysis was biased against PDP get Atiku won. So even in the worst case scenarios Atiku would emerge President.

You don't seem to have a single inkling of the love the masses have for Buhari. We don't care about how 'successful' a crooked business man is, what we care is somebody who cares about local and peasant industries.

How could you even begin to compare someone who even in what you call a 'successful' businessman is defrauding the FG of billions to someone who has encouraged, improved and put more money into the pockets of local economies of our parents.

Keep articulating for yourself. I won't vote for a billionaire who's still stealing from my parents and unborn children.

Please note that numbers of eligible South East and South South added together is not up the the total number of eligible voters in North East alone.

Why did you assume that voters turn out will be HIGH in South East and LOW in other zones? What if South East record LOW voters turn out (due to voters apathy because of Biafra struggle)? Did you know that there is an active campaign in the South East tagged "No Referendum; No Elections.

MalcoImX:
You don't seem to have a single inkling of the love the masses have for Buhari. We don't care about how 'successful' a crooked business man is, what we care is somebody who cares about local and peasant industries.

How could you even begin to compare someone who even in what you call a 'successful' businessman is defrauding the FG of billions to someone who has encouraged, improved and put more money into the pockets of local economies of our parents.

Keep articulating for yourself. I won't vote for a billionaire who's still stealing from my parents and unborn children.

you people keep forgeting that nigerians voted buhari in 2015 because they hoped that he would be better than gej. But now buhari has been tested and he has failed woefully. Now we'll try someone else

izombie:
you people keep forgeting that nigerians voted buhari in 2015 because they hoped that he would be better than gej. But now buhari has been tested and he has failed woefully. Now we'll try someone else

You don't seem to know what Buhari means to the local people, that's all. Can you even wait for an hour to vote for your Atikulate when these people could wait in the sun and rains for hours.

Sai Baba

MalcoImX:
You don't seem to know what Buhari means to the local people, that's all. Can you even wait for an hour to vote for your Atikulate when these people could wait in the sun and rains for hours.

which people? You think it is 2015 when he was contesting against a Christian and Southener.Dream on

Brai777:
Please note that numbers of eligible South East and South South added together is not up the the total number of eligible voters in North East alone.

Why did you assume that voters turn out will be HIGH in South East and LOW in other zones? What if South East record LOW voters turn out (due to voters apathy because of Biafra struggle)? Did you know that there is an active campaign in the South East tagged "No Referendum; No Elections.

Even if you analyse this using number of registered voters, Atiku would beat Buhari stupidly.

Check this thread for yourself:
https://www.nairaland.com/4786961/nigeriadecides2019-how-atiku-easily-stroll

MalcoImX:
You don't seem to know what Buhari means to the local people, that's all. Can you even wait for an hour to vote for your Atikulate when these people could wait in the sun and rains for hours.

When he was at his highest with all the major politicians around him he won with 3 million votes but now he is contested against the same establishment that made him President and the masses.

Wait till the campaigns and see.

2.4 million vote in South South ni, 18.9 million vote in South South Kor.. You seat in your house analysing what's going on in other regions, who the Bleep is this?

South West doesn't give bloc votes. Last election APC defeated PDP in the SW with 300k votes and one single State in the SE can match this. And the number of registered voters in the other 4 SE states and SS is more than that of NW. There are 20 million registered voters in NE and NC and Atiku would win them both.

Efewestern:
2.4 million vote in South South ni, 18.9 million vote in South South Kor.. You seat in your house analysing what's going on in other regions, who the Bleep is this?

I am Atikulate Nigerian, enemy to the enemies of state. I know you are sad that your western land can only give 300k electoral win. Isn't it pathetic? Especially knowing that this people are eyeing the Presidency in 2023 believing that they don't need SS/SE to achieve that.

SW APC want to return Buhari with their pathetic 343k win. Even with the 1.5 million we gave to them, their Buhari no still win.

Brai777:
Please note that numbers of eligible South East and South South added together is not up the the total number of eligible voters in North East alone.

Why did you assume that voters turn out will be HIGH in South East and LOW in other zones? What if South East record LOW voters turn out (due to voters apathy because of Biafra struggle)? Did you know that there is an active campaign in the South East tagged "No Referendum; No Elections.

Are you aware that pioneer organisation of Biafran Nationalism MASSOB endorsed Atiku/Obi? IPOB go soon shock una. We are boycotting gubernatorial election after voting for Atiku.

IamAtikulate:

I am Atikulate Nigerian, enemy to the enemies of state. I know you are sad that your western land can only give 300k electoral win. Isn't it pathetic? Especially knowing that this people are eyeing the Presidency in 2023 believing that they don't need SS/SE to achieve that.

I don't want to start any debate with you, believe anything you want to believe, you eye go soon clear, Even if PDP wins SS, it will be with a very small margin, not the one you typed up there, it's just not realistic, SS is a very diverse region, don't expect block votes, plus APC will be ready to rig too, too many APC loyalist in some states in the region.

How western Nigeria vote is none of my business, I don't interfere with the politics of other regions, I'm just concerned about my own.

[quote author=MalcoImX post=72222085]You don't seem to know what Buhari means to the local people, that's all. Can you even wait for an hour to vote for your Atikulate when these people could wait in the sun and rains for hours.[/quote.
Majority of votes from local people u guys always depend on will end up void because majority of them don't know how to vote correctly and let me remind you,this is not an election between Gej/buhari. It is northerner against northerner.

Brai777:
Please note that numbers of eligible South East and South South added together is not up the the total number of eligible voters in North East alone.

Why did you assume that voters turn out will be HIGH in South East and LOW in other zones? What if South East record LOW voters turn out (due to voters apathy because of Biafra struggle)? Did you know that there is an active campaign in the South East tagged "No Referendum; No Elections.

do uo know what they call block vote?
where even d APC agents will allow the PDP to fill the ballot boxes

[quote author=walexydo post=72223070][/quote]Were they void when they voted before?

IamAtikulate:

When he was at his highest with all the major politicians around him he won with 3 million votes but now he is contested against the same establishment that made him President and the masses.

Wait till the campaigns and see.

We are waiting for the campaigns and we'll see who pulls the most crowds, even with Atiku's rent-a-crowd.

IamAtikulate:
We have conducted about 5 different analysis using different scenarios and all returned the same result, Atiku won and the main deciding battle would be in NE and NC.

So below is our 6th analysis. We analysed the 6 regions using their voting pattern in 2015 when the call for APC was at it peak and today's trend to arrive at the result below:

But before we get started, I would love to congratulate our incoming President, The Turaki and Wazirin of Adamawa, His Excellency, Atiku Gbenga Okechukwu Akpan Tonye Ebei Abubakar.

North West
Buhari would win here with 4 million votes.

In 2015, APC won PDP with 5775k (5.8 million) votes (APC- 7115k PDP-1340k]. During that election, Tambuwal, Kwankwaso ans Shia moslems voted massively for Buhari and the herdsmen crisis in Zamfara. When you remove all these factors, together with the fact that Saraki's electoral amendment bill would cripple the use of under-aged voters because of the way the card readers would be used now, Buhari would lose at least 2 million supporters here. Only Shia moslems boasts of 10 million members.

South West
Buhari would win with 1.5 million votes.

In 2015, APC defeated PDP with 343k votes (APC-2163k PDP 1820k), but next year even though we don't expect SW to exceed that amount stupidly, but in this analysis we projected APC to win with 1.5 million votes because of their general resentment for anything Ndi Igbo.

South East
Atiku would win with 3 million votes.

In 2015, when SE turnout was at all time low since the history of this democracy, PDP defeated APC with. 2263 votes (APC 197k PDP 2560k). Next year we expect the turnout to increase geometrically to over 3.5 million votes but for the sake of this analysis we are going for 3 million votes.

South South
Atiku would win with 2.5 million votes.

Last election, PDP won APC with 4296k votes (APC 417 PDP 4713). APC made little incursion into the South South, but with the call for restructuring and resource control, we expect Atiku to win with over 2.5M votes. 2.5 million votes is too generous for a Buhari that is hated by the masses in South South. But we would let it go.

North East
Atiku wins with 1 million votes.

In 2015, APC won here with 2046k votes (APC 2849 PDP-803). Bauchi alone gave Buhari more win than Borno and Yobe combined. Bauchi Govenor is a non Atiku stooge and with him working with Dogara, the Buhari's votes here would be halved. Mama Taraba delivered over 45% of Taraban votes to Buhari, working with Ishiaku would see them deliver over 70% of the votes to Atiku. PDP is very strong in Adamawa, Atiku delivered 59% of Adamawa votes to Buhari while PDP retains over 39%. With two of them working together now, Atiku would clear over 80% votes in Adamawa. Dankwambo is so beloved in Gombe and he is the Coordinator for NE, he would deliver Gombe to Atiku. All these would leave Atiku and Buhari to battle for Borno and Yobe votes. Buhari would win here with about 60%. All these would make Atiku win NE with about 1.5 million votes but we are dashing Buhari 500k.

Middle Belt
Atiku would win with 2 million votes

In 2015, APC won with 700k votes (APC 2414 PDP 1714). PDP is very strong in Middle belt but Benue, Kwara, Plateau and Niger voted massively for APC yet they won with only 700k votes. In 2019, Kwara would deliver 60% to Atiku, while Benue and Plateau would vote massively for PDP. Votes in Niger would be split 50%- 50%, while Buhari would lose some ground in Kogi and Nasarawa.

In Summary:

NW: Buhari wins with 4 million
NE: Atiku wins with 1 million
SW: Buhari wins with 1.5 million
SE: Atiku wins with 3 million
SS: Atiku wins with 2 million
NC: Atiku wins with 2 million

Buhari total marginal wins: 5.5 million
Atiku's marginal win: 8 Million votes

Atiku wins the election with 2.5 million votes.

NOTE: This analysis was biased against PDP get Atiku won. So even in the worst case scenarios Atiku would emerge President.

Gush
their words irritates

PaChukwudi44:


which people? You think it is 2015 when he was contesting against a Christian and Southener.Dream on

OK oo; only don't come here crying when your expectations are not met.

Efewestern:


I don't want to start any debate with you, believe anything you want to believe, you eye go soon clear, Even if PDP wins SS, it will be with a very small margin, not the one you typed up there, it's just not realistic, SS is a very diverse region, don't expect block votes, plus APC will be ready to rig too, too many APC loyalist in some states in the region.

How western Nigeria vote is none of my business, I don't interfere with the politics of other regions, I'm just concerned about my own.

Why is it that the only thing in the mind of zombies is rigging? If you believe that Buhari would narrow down win in SS against Atiku that is campaigning with restructuring and resource control then I believe that Atiku would win NW.

Take it or leave it, Rivers alone would give PDP 2 million. It would be a miracle for Buhari to be defeated with 2.5 million. Anything less than 3 million is a miracle. No politician alive can defeat Jonathan in South South.

MalcoImX:
You don't seem to have a single inkling of the love the masses have for Buhari. ]We don't care about how 'successful' a crooked business man is, what we care is somebody who cares about local and peasant industries.

How could you even begin to compare someone who even in what you call a 'successful' businessman is defrauding the FG of billions to someone who has encouraged, improved and put more money into the pockets of local economies of our parents.

Keep articulating for yourself. I won't vote for a billionaire who's still stealing from my parents and unborn children.

Please it's the love you have for Buhari. You are entitled to that. Don't entangle the rest of Nigerians to your malaria induced love.

oglalasioux:


Please it's the love you have for Buhari. You are entitled to that. Don't entangle the rest of Nigerians to your malaria induced love.

Whenever you hear me talking about the masses, please don't include Athiefkulooters.

IamAtikulate:

Why is it that the only thing in the mind of zombies is rigging? If you believe that Buhari would narrow down win in SS against Atiku that is campaigning with restructuring and resource control then I believe that Atiku would win NW.

Take it or leave it, Rivers alone would give PDP 2 million. It would be a miracle for Buhari to be defeated with 2.5 million. Anything less than 3 million is a miracle. No politician alive can defeat Jonathan in South South.

Your analysis is unrealistic.buhari cannot lose in the north east.buhari always wins bauchi massively.in 2003,2007 and 2011 polls were bauchi was ruled by the pdp,buhari still polled over a million votes there.so the governor working for atiku will make no difference.buhari's winnings doesnt depend on governors or politicians in the north,he has a massive cult following.moreover a massive win in bauchi for buhari will be a win for the governor also.pdp has never polled more than 300k in bauchi.
Buhari has always won gombe.you claimed dankwambo is loved but buhari won gombe in 2015.dankwambo is only popular at the guber level.borno and yobe love buhari more than katsina and always wins here massively even when in 2011 they were under anpp and shekarau was the flagbearer while bubu was in cpc.
Its only in adamawa and taraba that atiku may narrowly win.buhari has always gotten 30% in these states.even when mama taraba wasnt in apc,buhari got 25%.politicians like danladi,ikenya,sabo kente are more influential than mama taraba.

All the reruns from rivers since 2016 should tell you that pdp cant get bloc votes from rivers again.pdp usually get bloc votes from ss because of federal might and manual accreditation.if pdp poll 2 million,apc will poll 1 million.rivers poll is about who can rig most and can cause more violence.
Gej got 11 million in ss/se in 2011,7 million in 2015.commonsense should tell you that atiku will poll lower next year.again,you predict that atiku will win ss/se by 5.5 million.that means he will lose heavily inother regions because for him to stand a chance,he must poll at least 10million there which is impossible.

Whoever will win north central will do so narrowly with not more than 500k votes.south west will give buhari more votes this time.atiku will end up winning only ss/se.dont waste your time

IamAtikulate:

Why is it that the only thing in the mind of zombies is rigging? If you believe that Buhari would narrow down win in SS against Atiku that is campaigning with restructuring and resource control then I believe that Atiku would win NW.

Take it or leave it, Rivers alone would give PDP 2 million. It would be a miracle for Buhari to be defeated with 2.5 million. Anything less than 3 million is a miracle. No politician alive can defeat Jonathan in South South.

If you can't be civil in your discussion don't quote me, never in my post did I call you names.

Rivers is not the only state in SS, we have other states in SS and I can categorically tell you that APc is well grounded in those states, even if APC loose in SS, they will still get a very reasonable amount of votes.

Jonathan can't really influence any results here, we have two Aboki.s at the poll, don't expect any sympathy towards PDP, last election was quite different, Everybody in the region supported GeJ because he was from SS, same can't be said here.

When I talked about rigging, I'm only stating the obvious fact, PDP are known for their rigging tactics, now both parties will rig.

Also stop using restructuring as a way of getting votes from the SS, the president of Nigeria doesn't have the power to restructure the country, the Senate does, and the northerners will make sure that never happens.

I might not like Buhari due to his level of bigotry, but ATIKU is never an option.

I don't see how Atiku will come out victorious ahead of Buhari, The fact is that even if PDP wins SS, it will be with a very small margin, and the numbers of eligible South East and South South added together is not up the the total number of eligible voters in North East alone.