PassingShot:
It's only a matter of five weeks to the general election of 2019 which is a straight contest between PMB of APC and Atiku of PDP. In 2015, I did this thread and was successful to a very high degree (more than 90% success, you may want to read it here https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective).

In this year's prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:


1. I have considered each party's strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state's voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don't think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

This prediction has turned out to be about 90% accurate with the election results for 2019 presidential contest. The overall win margin is still about 4 million votes between Atiku and Buhari.

Respect sir.

PrecisionFx:



Best analysis so far.

Like I keep saying, in 2019 Nigerians will see how powerful OBJ is. OBJ is a national leader that has followship across every single state in Nigeria.

Nigerians will also see how Powerful m connected OBJ is in Yoruba land.

Also Men that own Nigeria who have all abandoned buhari like IBB, OBJ, TY Danjuma, Jeremiah Useni, etc.....this is a sure loss for buhari

LOL!!!

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PrecisionFx:


Its now sensible to admit that 50/50 is possible in SW.

Ogun, Osun, Ekiti m Ondo are very strong states for PDP to grab 50% - 55% votes.

Remember the OBJ factor......U will see how Powerful OBJ is in the SW and across the nation.

What 'love portion' did OBJ give to this poster, for heaven's sake? This is how some lose their entire life savings with their bets nau. I don dey tok myon about these pipu since o. Hmm.

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PrecisionFx:


Ogun is OBJs homeland, expect Buhari to lose there.

Rinse the B.S. and repeat.

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P34c3
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papiforreal:

I stopped reading your analysis too after saying pmb and Atiku would share the votes in the northwest and north east. As much as I believe the op was generous on the figures he alloted to Buhari in the ss/se, same applies to the figures he also alloted to Atiku in the ne and nw. Buhari would trunce the Atiku in the northwest with at least 70:30 in favour of Atiku. Atiku has no popularity here, he's corruption, not good Muslim and he's utterances didn't help him. The only States in the northwest Atiku would comfortably win in the ne is taraba and may be Adamawa with slight margin.
But Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, borno, goes to Buhari with wide margin.

Your head dey there (as in, "Good thinking." )

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