By Mahmud Jega

1] Incumbency. It is not for nothing that most political talk in Nigeria centres on the intentions of the incumbent President. Even when the incumbent is not in the race, the talk still centres on who he is likely to anoint as his successor. When a sitting president is up for re-election, most Nigerians think there is no way he can be beaten. This belief has some historical validity because since the First Republic, an incumbent ruler has never been defeated in a national election in Nigeria. In 1983 and 2003, especially, incumbent presidents won with outrageous majorities that were totally out of sync with their observable standing in the voters’ eye. Even at the gubernatorial level, incumbents win re-election most of the time despite very poor records in office. Usually, a governor is defeated only due to overwhelming Federal might; the only cases in Nigeria in which incumbent state governors were defeated despite Federal support were Kwara in 1983, Kano in 2003, Bauchi, Edo and Ondo in 2007.

2] Money. I once read in an American newsletter that “money is not everything in American politics, but without it, a candidate will not go very far beyond the starting line.” Very good. In Nigeria here, you will not even get near the starting line without heavy bags of money. Money is the palm oil with which Nigerian political words are eaten. When a Nigerian is told that so-and-so person wants to be a governor or a president, his first response almost always is, “Does he have enough money? You know it is costly!”

3] Party. Since 1999, Nigeria’s democracy has veered inexorably towards a one party state. At present, PDP has the president and vice president, all the ministers, 28 out of 36 state governors and 90% of National Assembly members. Despite the party’s increasing unpopularity with the ordinary voter and its very low esteem in public eyes, PDP has won three consecutive elections with geometrically increasing majorities. No wonder most Nigerians think that to stand any chance of winning an election in Nigeria, you must be in PDP.

4] Zone. [/b]It may sound ridiculous in Europe, but in Nigeria here, where you come from could scuttle your political ambition before it gets underway. Since 1979 at least, zoning has been one of the biggest Achilles’ heels to a Nigerian political ambition; many an ambitious and very promising candidate has been halted in his tracks because the post he is aspiring to was zoned by the party to another zone. In 1999, zoning was so complete that all three registered parties at the time zoned the presidency to the Yoruba. In so far as there are more than 50 parties in Nigeria right now, zoning isn’t that much of a hindrance, because an aspirant can go to another party. But Nigerians still think very much about an aspirant’s zone in all political calculations.

[b]5] Record of service. In other lands, an aspirant’s record of service is probably the most important index of his likely election success, alongside ideology and bag of promises. Not so in Nigeria here. Many a person with a shameful record of public or private sector service has stood for and has often won elections here with large majorities. Many Nigerians go straight from dismissal from work, exile or even prison to stand in elections. In 1991, a man whose picture in full prison garbs was widely distributed by his opponents was still well on his way to winning a gubernatorial election on the grounds that he later received a state pardon.

Even where a person’s “record” in office is discussed in Nigerian political circles, it is not the record that you usually think of. In 1983, an NPN gubernatorial aspirant was asked at a state congress to state his achievements in office as a minister, and he replied that he awarded “juicy contracts” to three people from the state. That’s the kind of record that wins party primaries, especially.

6] National appeal. Many presidential aspirants in Nigeria are what in other places are called the “favourite sons” of states and regions, people who are local champions with massive appeal in one area only. Although there are several routes to becoming a figure with wide appeal in Nigeria, including military service, heading an important Federal ministry or other agency, extraordinary gubernatorial tenure, excelling in the private sector or dogged labour union/civil society work, preciously few people rise to that level these days.

7] The Vision Thing. In other climes, the first thing everyone wants to know from an aspirant is his vision. Not so here. People sit down here and plan how to spend billions in pursuit of an office without sparing a thought for what they will do when they get the office. Which is just as well, for no one asks them about it. Vision is such a low priority thing in Nigerian politics that many governors and presidents work out their programs only after winning the election, not before.

8] Eloquence. US President John Kennedy’s old speechwriter Ted Sorensen once wrote that an American presidential campaign is built around the speech. In so far as what you say is the most important thing that will draw people to you, a candidate spends most of his time preparing his speeches, what to say, how to say it and where. In Nigeria here, no one gives a second thought to eloquence or to substance. Thinking about the eloquence of Nigeria’s four civilian presidents since 1979 reminds me of what TIME magazine once said about the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Although he is an economist of high international standing, Singh’s extremely listless public speech was described as “a natural remedy for sleep disorders.”

[b]9] Luck. [/b]When all is said and done, the most reliable indicator of presidential election success in Nigeria is, luck. All the four men who rose to become Executive Presidents of Nigeria since 1979 apparently had more luck than anything else on their side. In 1998, I asked Malam Yahaya Abdulkarim to respond to the charge by Senator Saidu Dansadau that his becoming governor of old Sokoto State in 1992 was entirely due to good luck. Malam Yahaya said, “Allah yasa ga Dansadau! Is luck not what everybody is looking for in politics?”
http://www.dailytrust.com/dailytrust/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=758:luck-may-just-be-it&catid=6:daily-columns&Itemid=6

President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling party cannot be an exception to the failures of the most corrupt party in Africa.

We must sack the ruling party by peace or by force.

Number 9 seems to have done 100% of the work for our current leader. Wonder how much longer that streak will run for.

^^^ the streak started from Bayelsa and took him to aso rock

he has never printed posters to campaign and yet hes presiding over 9ja

i think the luck will take him to UN hot seat soon

I wonder if there has been in rise in number of parents naming their kids 'Goodluck' as a result. lol

lol

im thinking of naming my first child goodluck
lmao