bender79:
uneducated thinking comes from you because you assume that there will be 100parcent turnout in the south, particularly SE and SS which are the only sure regions of Atiku

What will pin them down at home?

And you assume there will be 100% turn out in APC stronghold?

[color=#000000][/color]SS÷PDP
SE÷PDP
NE÷PDP
NC÷PDP
NW÷APC
SW÷AAC
Don't argue with me I'm a certified political analyst who has traveled round all these regions interacting with the grassroot voting populace in the stronghold states of these regions before bringing my results[b]SS÷PDP

Very much kindergarten.

Iceness:
[color=#000000][/color]SS÷PDP
SE÷PDP
NE÷PDP
NC÷PDP
NW÷APC
SW÷AAC
Don't argue with me I'm a certified political analyst who has traveled round all these regions interacting with the grassroot voting populace in the stronghold states of these regions before bringing my results[b]SS÷PDP

I can see!that is why you are dividing their votes already. Trash at the moment you wrote AAC for SW

successmatters:


What will pin them down at home?

And you assume there will be 100% turn out in APC stronghold?

50 parcent turnout at each end puts buhari ahead as long as Atiku doesn't cut by half buhari's scores, which is unlikely. From there, the battle shifts to NC and SW and I bet you APC will use all the advantages they have to pull it off

successmatters:


In the same vein, where can buharri win in SE? None.

He won't even collect up to 5%

perhaps u should first read the comment I quote because I don't see reason for this question

About 28million people voted in the 2015 election. Buhari got about 15million and Jonathan got 13million.

The truth is 95% of those that voted PDP will still vote PDP while only about 70% that voted APC will still vote them.

The 10million new voters are the ones that will decide this election and with the hunger in the land in a free and fair election there is no way Buhari can win. Atiku would get about 65 to 70% of the new voters. A slim win for him

My 2cents.

codedguy1:
About 28million people voted in the 2015 election. Buhari got about 15million and Jonathan got 13million.

The truth is 95% of those that voted PDP will still vote PDP while only about 70% that voted APC will still vote them.

The 10million new voters are the ones that will decide this election and with the hunger in the land in a free and fair election there is no way Buhari can win. Atiku would get about 65 to 70% of the new voters. A slim win for him

My 2cents.

You better throw your 2cents away.it makes no sense that you claim Atiku will get 65-70 parcent of new voters when most of them are in buhari's stronghold

bender79:
Voter turn out is what you should be aiming at.

Consideration has to be given to areas with more fraudulent registrations. That could be another advantage to Atiku.

You know the registration is an ongoing process, meaning that all those underage voters are among. If they are not allowed to vote as may be the case, then it might affect Buhari more.

But Atiku needs 30% core north votes regardless.

Anyone that predict Buhari not winning kogi is just dumb walahi.

[quote author=Iceness post=75967688][b][/b]I am from the south south and I can assure that a lot of people most especially those who voted Buhari in 2015 are ready to mobilise and vote him out most especially my state Edo
Don't think Oshiomole can win one polling unit for BuhariI am from the south south and I can assure that a lot of people most especially those who voted Buhari in 2015 are ready to mobilise and vote him out most especially my state Edo
Don't think Oshiomole can win one polling unit for BuhariI am from the south south and I can assure that a lot of people most especially those who voted Buhari in 2015 are ready to mobilise and vote him out most especially my state Edo
Don't think Oshiomole can win one polling unit for Buhari[edo state is ready to take him out]

codedguy1:
About 28million people voted in the 2015 election. Buhari got about 15million and Jonathan got 13million.

The truth is 95% of those that voted PDP will still vote PDP while only about 70% that voted APC will still vote them.

The 10million new voters are the ones that will decide this election and with the hunger in the land in a free and fair election there is no way Buhari can win. Atiku would get about 65 to 70% of the new voters. A slim win for him

My 2cents.

As much as I love your analysis because it has some atoms objectivity but you forgot the inflated , rigged and abnormal figures pdp got from the SS/SE which they are likely not to get this time around. The few APC leaders in those regions were helpless and caged in 2015 but now APC have more political heavyweights in those regions and they will likely use the federal might to either reduce the pdp leaders influence and even hustle out more votes for Buhari.


In 2015 wike was able to cage and neutralized Amaechi but the reverse will be the case now. Anambra was a free state for pdp to do as they like but now they have the APC leaders and Obiano to contend with, same with Orji Kalu in Abia , the nnamanis in Enugu and other places

kayzat:




As much as I love your analysis because it has some atoms objectivity but you forgot the inflated , rigged and abnormal figures pdp got from the SS/SE which they are likely not to get this time around. The few APC leaders in those regions were helpless and caged in 2015 but now APC have more political heavyweights in those regions and they will likely use the federal might to either reduce the pdp leaders influence and even hustle out more votes for Buhari.


In 2015 wike was able to cage and neutralized Amaechi but the reverse will be the case now. Anambra was a free state for pdp to do as they like but now they have the APC leaders and Obiano to contend with, same with Orji Kalu in Abia , the nnamanis in Enugu and other places

are you sure you are not forgetting the rigged and over inflated votes in the north? with videos of almajiri voting. Now that a fulani core huasa man is contesting, Buhari will not have that leeway again.

dokie:


Men, this is a tiiight race.

But with 30% in the North and 85% in the SSSE Atiku wins.

Do the maths.

For Atiku to win this, he needs at least 30 % from the north.

And there's no region called South West

shachris05:


are you sure you are not forgetting the rigged and over inflated votes in the north? with videos of almajiri voting. Now that a fulani core huasa man is contesting, Buhari will not have that leeway again.

And you think they won't rig more than that now that they have the federal might in their hands

kayzat:




And you think they won't rig more than that now that they have the federal might in their hands

Federal might does not work in presidential election....not when all the voting is happening in one day. If that's what you are counting on, then you failed.

The key people that helped him rig are now in PDP.

gulfer:
And there's no region called South West

The gains of Atiku in the North central will cancel out Buharis win in the South West.

Lagos is South West but will be shared equally because it houses the largest amount of non Yorubas as well as enlightened yorubas, so tribal sentiments will be largely downplayed. The only reason why APC might have a slight win in Lagos is BAT influence. But check all elections since 99 BAT has always had a narrow win.

kayzat:




As much as I love your analysis because it has some atoms objectivity but you forgot the inflated , rigged and abnormal figures pdp got from the SS/SE which they are likely not to get this time around. The few APC leaders in those regions were helpless and caged in 2015 but now APC have more political heavyweights in those regions and they will likely use the federal might to either reduce the pdp leaders influence and even hustle out more votes for Buhari.


In 2015 wike was able to cage and neutralized Amaechi but the reverse will be the case now. Anambra was a free state for pdp to do as they like but now they have the APC leaders and Obiano to contend with, same with Orji Kalu in Abia , the nnamanis in Enugu and other places

The issue of both candidates being from the north will play a vital role in this election. The inroads Atiku will make in the north will more than the inroads Buhari will make in the ss and se especially because those guys usually gibe block votes to the PDP. The sw is dicey it will be divided 50/50.

Theain battle for Atiku is to gamer 30% in the nw especially, the ne will be 5050 also. I Dont see buhari winning the nc.

There were also rigged figures up north.

Excaperx:
nassarawa? Dude wake up they hate buhari and he has never won there.

Kwara? Forget otoge nonsense, saraki get there.

Kogi? You are joking.

It's only Niger state that's certain for buhari, PDP have babaginda there

Kogi people can be funny, with due respect. Weird bunch. They're a people with serious identity crisis, and politically, they're always zealous asslick the prevailing core Northern establishment at any given time. I think lifeless Buhari would win that Kogi.

shachris05:


Federal might does not work in presidential election....not when all the voting is happening in one day. If that's what you are counting on, then you failed.

The key people that helped him rig are now in PDP.

Now you're becoming a jester


You mean federal might doesn't count in the presidential election? How then did the pdp able to get all those figures and intimidate the APC leaders. Even Tinubu was intimidated to some extent in the last election

bender79:
Buhari has always won Nassarawa and nothing has changed since then. Elections in Nigeria are not won on sentiments. People win elections with structures and APC structures are still rooted along the NC region whether they are hated is another topic.

Bro...go back and check,Buhari did not even win nasarawa in 2015, you have you facts wrong.

bender79:
Buhari has always won Nassarawa and nothing has changed since then. Elections in Nigeria are not won on sentiments. People win elections with structures and APC structures are still rooted along the NC region whether they are hated is another topic.

Nassarawa, Taraba PDP has been winning those states since we enter democracy, same with Benue and plateau, PDP lost Benue and plateau just 2015, which I'm 100% the two states will swing back to PDP by Sunday

dokie:


The gains of Atiku in the North central will cancel out Buharis win in the South West.

Lagos is South West but will be shared equally because it houses the largest amount of non Yorubas as well as enlightened yorubas, so tribal sentiments will be largely downplayed. The only reason why APC might have a slight win in Lagos is BAT influence. But check all elections since 99 BAT has always had a narrow win.

If Atiku is not careful he will come third in Lagos State behind sowore or moghalu.


BAT has been having slim winnings because they've always been in opposition and the amount of resources the ruling parties always deployed to challenge his authority is not a child's play now this is the first time he will be in the driving seat as a leader of the ruling party

kayzat:




Now you're becoming a jester


You mean federal might doesn't count in the presidential election? How then did the pdp able to get all those figures and intimidate the APC leaders. Even Tinubu was intimidated to some extent in the last election

You are so funny man. How many police? in how many pooling units do you want to deploy your federal might in? for you to win with Federal might, the force has to be so much that the people are overwhelmed. That cannot happen in a national election that all 120 thousand pooling units are all voting at the same time.

successmatters:


Atiku can collect half of that NE /Nw votes

But

Buharri cannot collect even 5% of SS /SE votes

Eediot
...after this election .... your wailing continue

codedguy1:


The issue of both candidates being from the north will play a vital role in this election. The inroads Atiku will make in the north will more than the inroads Buhari will make in the ss and se especially because those guys usually gibe block votes to the PDP. The sw is dicey it will be divided 50/50.

Theain battle for Atiku is to gamer 30% in the nw especially, the ne will be 5050 also. I Dont see buhari winning the nc.

There were also rigged figures up north.

SW will not even be close. Who are the pdp leaders to challenge APC in the SW? Apart from fayose and maybe Makinde in Oyo state others will be roasted by the ruling party

bender79:
You better throw your 2cents away.it makes no sense that you claim Atiku will get 65-70 parcent of new voters when most of them are in buhari's stronghold

Calm down bro...you really think everybody in the northwest will vote buhari, cos you guys keep throwing the whole buhari strong hold phrase...most of my businesses are conducted in the north,from kano to Kaduna and katsina...and I can tell you that you will be surprised at how many votes the Atiku guy will clench...I am even in Kaduna currently.

kayzat:




If Atiku is not careful he will come third in Lagos State behind sowore or moghalu.


BAT has been having slim winnings because they've always been in opposition and the amount of resources the ruling parties always deployed to challenge his authority is not a child's play now this is the first time he will be in the driving seat as a leader of the ruling party

Lagos is a 50-50 state.It is too cosmopolitan to be regionalized.Anyone who wins lagos will do so with a very small margin like in 2015

shachris05:


You are so funny man. How many police? in how many pooling units do you want to deploy your federal might in? for you to win with Federal might, the force has to be so much that the people are overwhelmed. That cannot happen in a national election that all 40 thousand pooling units are all voting at the same time.

Even your fellow Atikulators will be laughing at you with this your argument

PaChukwudi44:

Lagos is a 50-50 state.It is too cosmopolitan to be regionalized.Anyone who wins lagos will do so with a very small margin like in 2015

Saturday will soon be here and you guys will cry rigging as usual

kayzat:





Even your fellow Atikulators will be laughing at you with this your argument

dude federal might doesn't not work in a national election. The very reason your actually intelligent mates (no offence ) in APC are pushing for a staggered election.

So sad you are not intelligent enough to be having this discussion with me. I needed a smarter zombie.

bender79:
Total no of pvc collected in NW/NE-26,952,981
Total no of pvc collected in SS/SE-19,694,368. These are the numbers from strongholds of they two top contenders. Now I'm must say that if Atiku will win this election he must do well in NW and NE. It will be a battle Royale in the NC and SW. Atiku needs to close up buhari numbers in those regions by at least 50parcent to have any chance. If buhari does very well in those regions then it is game over!

ICYMI- Buhari has never won an election against any one from the north. He only won against Obasanjo and Jonathan