Two things will be put into consideration to present an unbiased analysis

1. The fact that GEJ contested as a president and he campaigned with federal financial MIGHT unlike Atiku who is contesting without federal might.

2. The fact that Atiku is a Northern Muslim unlike GEJ who is Southern Christian.

Before I continue, let me post the 2019 data of collected PVC

Let me also share 2015 result

Go on

Following

According to 2015 election, Buhari performed excellently well in NW zones and one can rightfully say that NW was the strong force he had in 2015 while GEJ had SS and SE.

In 2015, PDP stronghold were

Enugu, Anambra, abia, akwaibom, crossriver, delta, Imo, Ebonyi, Rivers and Bayelsa
And judging from the total collected PVC of these regions as of 11th February 2019, they have approximately 17,899,000.


APC stronghold according to 2015 election were
Kano, jigawa, katsina, kaduna, borno, Niger, yobe, bauchi, gombe, sokoto and zamfara
And judging from the total collected PVC of these regions as of 11th February 2019, they have approximately 22,300,000

Atiku is from NE, and judging from APC 2015 states mentioned as Buhari stronghold, the NE states include Borno, Yobe, bauchi and gombe
From the total collected PVC of these NE regions as of 11th February 2019, they have APPROXIMATELY 6,900,000.
Kwankwanso and Tambuwal are strong influencers from Kano and sokoto respectively and these two regions are from NW regions which will make PDP draw some surprise votes from Kano and sokoto

So statistically,
Buhari is mostly likely going to win with great margin in NW and SW while Atiku will win in SE and SS with great margin and both candidates will likely battle hard in NC while Atiku will slightly win in NE (his geopolitical zone) .

So statistically, Atiku will likely win 2019 election with slight margin if done fairly

Is that all?