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Stats: 2,319,400 members, 5,114,722 topics. Date: Saturday, 24 August 2019 at 11:43 PM
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:30pm On Aug 14|
You are very wise.
The best bet for APC is Fashola/El-Rufai .
They need a Muslim Muslim ticket by fronting Fashola for the SW.
Don’t make a mistake, the SE &SS will never vote a Yoruba candidate coz he’s a Christian. They won’t vote Osinbajo.
SW don’t care about religion and they will vote Fashola overwhelmingly and the rest is left to the NE and NE to vote with El-Rufai as VP.
If Tinubu makes a mistake of vying for the presidency, APC will not get the required massive vote from even the SW.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:36pm On Aug 14|
LegendHero:Why do you think APC won't get massive vote in SW if Tinubu is given the. Ticket.
Dnt forget that the likes of Fashola, Aregbesola, Ambode, and many more used the influence and popularity of Tinubu in SW to get to where they are today. If SW never liked him, they would have been rejecting his candidates in different States especially in Lagos.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:37pm On Aug 14|
Don’t get it wrong bro, the SE &SS will never vote APC up to 40% even with a Christian Osinbajo as president.
The APC need to face the NE ,NW, and SW. NC is usually always 50/50 like you said.
The only best chance of APC is Fashola, Fashola will get at least 85% of the votes in the SW, forget about Yoruba not voting in the same way, they will vote for Fashola and both Muslim and Christian Yorubas will vote without sentiment.
Reason why Fashola will win is not far fetched, the Northerner will be happy he’s a Muslim, he also has a track record , and the major reason is that they know Tinubu cannot control Fashola easily hence the north will think they can cut Tinubu powers with Fashola.
APC should not make the mistake of presenting Osinbajo or even Tinubu. While Tinubu will not get 70% of the vote in the SW, Osinbajo will not get 70% of the vote in the NW & NE.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:41pm On Aug 14|
Well, let's see how the politics will unfold before 2023. All we are doing are just speculations but however, they are in line with reality
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:42pm On Aug 14|
You should understand the mind of the SW voters, they sometimes both based on conviction and logical deduction.
Tinubu wronged some people in SW and others might think Tinubu is part of the old political class and they will be skeptical to vote him. Propaganda can also start flying around by the opposition about Tinubu corruption cases or other stuffs.
What SW need to win the presidency is to win at least 85% of the vote cast in SW. Tinubu will not be able to beat that benchmark infact there might be voter apathy in the SW which will decrease the turnout of voters.
Not that people don’t love Tinubu, and it’s sure he will win the SW but the main thing is to win SW overwhelming and that can only be achieved by Fashola or Osinbajo.
But my fear is that Osinbajo may not get that much vote in the NE and NW.
Hence I think a Fashola should be the better choice.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:46pm On Aug 14|
I won't subscribe to your assertion that Tinubu won't get up to 70% votes in SW. No doubt Fashola is a sellable candidate but that doesn't make him more popular or acceptable than Tinubu in SW. Tinubu has good track records as governor of Lagos states and he is obviously not a greedy man. I believe in both Tinubu and Fashola but your assertion is very wrong.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 8:47pm On Aug 14|
That’s why I wrote a phrase “even Fashola” as he has the best chance for a Muslim Muslim ticket. In the SW.
My only submission is this:
You are being romantic in thinking the North will because of religion vote a Southerner over another Northerner of the same religion. The North know the power of the President versus the VP and even Fashola would be shocked that they will go for a fellow Northerner before him.
Any Southerner without the MB and the South facing a Northerner is a goner. Take that to the bank.
Obasanjo knew this that’s why winning SW was do or die with him in 2003 when Buhari started contesting against him.
Osinbajo better be sleeping all day and night in SS and to a smaller extent SE right now.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:54pm On Aug 14|
Well you also have a point and no argument is supreme over the other.
But I just have my reservation that the SW should NOT depend on the SS & SE to give Osinbajo a 40% vote. It will be fatal to make that assumptions.
The SS & SE are core PDP states and they will by default vote any one presented by PDP. We need the vote of the NE and NW more than we need the other south.
Northerners will actually vote for Fashola because most people love and believe in that man. Did you watch Fashola’s ministerial screening in 2015 in the senate? Northern senators respected that man so much during that shell creeping and he will be sellable in the north.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:54pm On Aug 14|
LegendHero:I understand your point of view well but you should also understand there will be propaganda and counter propaganda no matter how clean the candidate is. Take Buhari for instance, ain't propagandas flying around when he wanted to contest? Didn't they accused him of the agenda of Islamizing Nigeria? No matter the clean record of the politician, there will always be propaganda. So I feel thats not a good reason for Fashola to be more acceptable in SW than Tinubu.
Any candidate presented in SW will pull a reasonable votes in the zone. I only emphasis on Muslim/Muslim ticket because of the northern votes. If Osinbanjo is presented today as flag bearer of APC, he will still get a reasonable votes in SW just that the north might be sentimental when it comes to religion.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 8:54pm On Aug 14|
Tribe and religion
Not certain the day would come when we as Nigerians would stop thinking across those lines and making decisions on those two factors .
It’s all a sham .
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:58pm On Aug 14|
I love Tinubu also but I think he might not get that 85% vote from the SW.
I’m not saying he will not win, of course he will win the SW but we need the Yorubas to give an overwhelming vote and we shouldn’t leave matter left to chance.
There will be voter apathy to some extent with Tinubu, but a Fashola on the ballot will even inspire the youth to go out and vote coz he has such great record as a governor and he’s so brilliant.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:01pm On Aug 14|
You are totally correct tho.
Osinbajo will get 85% vote or more in the SW but I’m afraid of the core north vote.
Fashola will get the 85% vote or more also in SW and will get more vote than an Osinbajo in the north by normal reasoning.
Tinubu is too powerful, some northern cabals might even want to work against him coz they wouldn’t want someone that powerful as the president. Although this argument is left to debate.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:02pm On Aug 14|
Well, both are not bad candidates. They are both good to go
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:03pm On Aug 14|
omicpet:You can't separate tribe and religion from politics.
They are very important factors in strategising in politics.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:10pm On Aug 14|
LegendHero:Your last paragraph. The cabals are Buharis men. I dnt think they will go against their master. The last time we had a powerful president was during a Yoruba man's tenure (obasanjo). The only person who can stop Tinubu presidency is APC is Buhari. Once he gets his support, most of the northerners will follow .
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 9:11pm On Aug 14|
I agree. Also you have to consider external forces.
The US and UK elections will matter. If it’s a republican and Conservative party in office when 2023 rolls around, it’s likely to be a Christian candidate that will be supported and depending on where Obasanjo is at that point in time, he will be whispering in the ears of the US to ensure only a Christain gets in.
I’m Yoruba and I think we would readily vote for Fashola despite Muslim/muslim ticket, but I think you can forget SS and SE significantly in that scenario. If for some reason the North goes for the Northerner PDP, his goose is cooked
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:14pm On Aug 14|
Correct. You have a point.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:18pm On Aug 14|
You truly have a point to be honest. It’s really a dicey situation. APC just gotta do a lot of tactical calculation before unveiling their candidate. They should make sure they select the candidate that will yield the optimal
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:27pm On Aug 14|
SamNaijaboy:External forces do not determine who win an election in Nigeria. We are far beyond that level. What matters most is the internal strategy. The UK and US don't have any effect on the choice of candidate by electorates.
Trump tried it and Nigerians put him in his right place. Obasanjo also did and electorates made him understand he has no influence on who wins election in Nigeria
Americans won't come to Nigeria to vote na we go do the voting ourselves.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 9:30pm On Aug 14|
Do those politicians consider tribe and religion when embezzling the funds amongst themselves ?
Do they consider it when marrying their kids off to each other ?
Be wise bro , they throw the religion and tribe coins up so the populace have something to feed on and align with.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by Shinjitsu: 9:36pm On Aug 14|
Thiefnibu won't be happy about this news
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:37pm On Aug 14|
I understand you. I am just being factual with you.
Politics does not unite people, it divides and thats why we have different political parties and caucuses.
Religion is a tool of division that's why politicians employ it in winning election. Also tribe is also a tool of division cos we have different tribes in Nigeria.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 9:41pm On Aug 14|
Do you agree with me that it’s high time majority of the populace who claim to be learned or schooled shouldn’t be divided along religious and tribal lines ?
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by WiLdFLame(m): 9:41pm On Aug 14|
now I see you don’t know anything about southwest. Come 2023 the Yoruba nation will be locked down for APC. Large blockvotes that will scare everyone . This is the firsttime the south west will be working really hard with power , strategy and investment in to getting the presidency. 2023 will be just like 1993 in terms of votes
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:46pm On Aug 14|
omicpet:I concur 100% . But being learned alone can't stop from being divided along religion or tribal lines. Exposure coupled with a sound education will make people see beyond religion and tribal lines. Most are educated but they aren't exposed
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by WiLdFLame(m): 9:51pm On Aug 14|
What’s wrong with you people..who’s more competent than tinubu? Tell me ? Why do you think tinubu won’t get massive vote
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by TSRC: 9:56pm On Aug 14|
The PDP is winning the south in 2023 as usual regardless of the candidate .
If they can retain their showing in 2019 and take advantage of buhari absence in the poll to really penetrate in the APC parts of the north, they would win.
Hopefully, it is an Igbo candidate. Anyone of Peter obi or umahi will do.
Peter obi is already known nationally thanks to the 2019 elections.
And umahi is good with the buhari fan base.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 10:17pm On Aug 14|
Expecting June 12 to happen again after the herdsmen issue is just dreaming.
Didn’t they work really hard this time and the PDP won two states even with Osinbajo as VP?
And that was before the herdsmen issue got really bad in the SW? That was as a result of the view of Buhari as being incompetent economically and in camaraderie with the MB who was being overrun by herdsmen killings. Now that it’s worse in the SW you think there isn’t some blowback coming with the choice of an all Muslim ticket. Okay oh.
They better wait till they see what the PDP does first before deciding who their flag bearer would be as even Obasanjo did not dare go against a Northerner in 2003 without MB and the South in his kitty.
You know a friend from how he treats you and with Buhari and the Northern Fulani supremacists in power (and with the Ruga plans that were unveiled) there is something a bit more sinister brewing and all bets are off. No guarantee that they aren’t going to switch support at the last minute to the PDP guy as long as he is Fulani.
Actually if you are Yoruba, I would plan on that outcome.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 10:39pm On Aug 14|
Depends on the PDP candidate
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 10:47pm On Aug 14|
You couldn’t have said it any better
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by TSRC: 10:50pm On Aug 14|
SamNaijaboy:It always depends on the candidate.
My analysis works for those two candidates unless APC is running with a Northerner as President.
The VP for the pdp needs to be a very popular Northerner too.
|Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by fk001(m): 11:16pm On Aug 14|
I have been following your conversation, but let me tell you the bitter truth.
Christian Northerners are PDP by default if you like fill in a reverend in APC and a shieck in PDP they will vote PDP, same goes to SE and SS.
SE, SS and Christian Northerners doesn't hate Hausa, Fulani or Muslims they only detest Buhari and the party he brought APC. They voted Yar'adua he is a Fulani Muslim and from PDP.
Forget all this herdsmen menace, I promise you whoever PDP filled in come 2023 SE, SS and Christian northerners will give him their 80% votes.
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