₦airaland Forum

Welcome, Guest: Join Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / New
Stats: 2,319,400 members, 5,114,722 topics. Date: Saturday, 24 August 2019 at 11:43 PM

El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency - Politics (2) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency (4362 Views)

Miyetti Allah Endorses Dave Umahi For 2023 Presidency / Presidential Race: The Battleground States / Ekiti State's Capital as battleground for Fayose and Fayemi(pic) (2) (3) (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (Reply) (Go Down)

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:30pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:


Forget the Christian factor, SS/SE will not vote for APC. Even though the number of votes will be different from 2019 election for APC, it will be slight increment.

You are emphasising about a Christian candidate from SW but you are not considering Muslim candidate factor for the north which is the one of the factors the north will also use to vote. Its better APC fill a Muslim/Muslim ticket than a Christian/Muslim ticket because the north is their main target

Kaduna, Kano and Kastina votes are very important to APC.

You are very wise.

The best bet for APC is Fashola/El-Rufai .

They need a Muslim Muslim ticket by fronting Fashola for the SW.

Don’t make a mistake, the SE &SS will never vote a Yoruba candidate coz he’s a Christian. They won’t vote Osinbajo.

SW don’t care about religion and they will vote Fashola overwhelmingly and the rest is left to the NE and NE to vote with El-Rufai as VP.

If Tinubu makes a mistake of vying for the presidency, APC will not get the required massive vote from even the SW.

2 Likes

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:36pm On Aug 14
LegendHero:


You are very wise.

The best bet for APC is Fashola/El-Rufai .

They need a Muslim Muslim ticket by fronting Fashola for the SW.

Don’t make a mistake, the SE &SS will never vote a Yoruba candidate coz he’s a Christian. They won’t vote Osinbajo.

SW don’t care about religion and they will vote Fashola overwhelmingly and the rest is left to the NE and NE to vote with El-Rufai as VP.

If Tinubu makes a mistake of vying for the presidency, APC will not get the required massive vote from even the SW.
Why do you think APC won't get massive vote in SW if Tinubu is given the. Ticket.

Dnt forget that the likes of Fashola, Aregbesola, Ambode, and many more used the influence and popularity of Tinubu in SW to get to where they are today. If SW never liked him, they would have been rejecting his candidates in different States especially in Lagos.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:37pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
Exactly why the APC will soon realize to stand a chance, you will have to put an Osinbajo or Fayemi.
Has to be a Christain.
Even if they lose the SE and SS, they will get 40-45%.
With 70% of the SW, they are looking good in the South. Forget split votes from the Yoruba that time. That only happens when a Yoruba is not on the ticket (in 1999 they were both Yorubas) or is unloved for whatever reason(like Tinubu is increasingly is).
With the prevalent mood in the SW about the Fulani Herdsmen, Tambuwal won’t get 10%.
If it’s Timubu or another Muslim/muslim ticket, they will lose a lot of the goodwill from Christain Yorubas who will rather sit at home than vote either Tambuwal or a Muslim Muslim ticket with the Islamization fears with the herdsmen etc.




Don’t get it wrong bro, the SE &SS will never vote APC up to 40% even with a Christian Osinbajo as president.

The APC need to face the NE ,NW, and SW. NC is usually always 50/50 like you said.

The only best chance of APC is Fashola, Fashola will get at least 85% of the votes in the SW, forget about Yoruba not voting in the same way, they will vote for Fashola and both Muslim and Christian Yorubas will vote without sentiment.

Reason why Fashola will win is not far fetched, the Northerner will be happy he’s a Muslim, he also has a track record , and the major reason is that they know Tinubu cannot control Fashola easily hence the north will think they can cut Tinubu powers with Fashola.

APC should not make the mistake of presenting Osinbajo or even Tinubu. While Tinubu will not get 70% of the vote in the SW, Osinbajo will not get 70% of the vote in the NW & NE.

2 Likes

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:41pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
Laugh all you want.
The entire southern part of the country knew once Jonathan got there, as acting President and then President, he had to be allowed a fresh 4 year term due to the militancy in the SS. At least the entire south knew.
He lost the North by the way.
Buhari ran against him and the northern votes were split between himself and Atiku the so-called northern consensus candidate. So there were alignments. Just didn’t matter since the votes were split.
With the entire south backing him, he won handily.
Anytime a Southerner is facing a northerner, you need a large swarth of the South with you or else you are done for.





Well, let's see how the politics will unfold before 2023. All we are doing are just speculations but however, they are in line with reality
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:42pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:

Why do you think APC won't get massive vote in SW if Tinubu is given the. Ticket.

Dnt forget that the likes of Fashola, Aregbesola, Ambode, and many more used the influence and popularity of Tinubu in SW to get to where they are today. If SW never liked him, they would have been rejecting his candidates in different States especially in Lagos.

You should understand the mind of the SW voters, they sometimes both based on conviction and logical deduction.

Tinubu wronged some people in SW and others might think Tinubu is part of the old political class and they will be skeptical to vote him. Propaganda can also start flying around by the opposition about Tinubu corruption cases or other stuffs.

What SW need to win the presidency is to win at least 85% of the vote cast in SW. Tinubu will not be able to beat that benchmark infact there might be voter apathy in the SW which will decrease the turnout of voters.

Not that people don’t love Tinubu, and it’s sure he will win the SW but the main thing is to win SW overwhelming and that can only be achieved by Fashola or Osinbajo.

But my fear is that Osinbajo may not get that much vote in the NE and NW.

Hence I think a Fashola should be the better choice.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:46pm On Aug 14
LegendHero:


Don’t get it wrong bro, the SE &SS will never vote APC up to 40% even with a Christian Osinbajo as president.

The APC need to face the NE ,NW, and SW. NC is usually always 50/50 like you said.

The only best chance of APC is Fashola, Fashola will get at least 85% of the votes in the SW, forget about Yoruba not voting in the same way, they will vote for Fashola and both Muslim and Christian Yorubas will vote without sentiment.

Reason why Fashola will win is not far fetched, the Northerner will be happy he’s a Muslim, he also has a track record , and the major reason is that they know Tinubu cannot control Fashola easily hence the north will think they can cut Tinubu powers with Fashola.

APC should not make the mistake of presenting Osinbajo or even Tinubu. While Tinubu will not get 70% of the vote in the SW, Osinbajo will not get 70% of the vote in the NW & NE.

I won't subscribe to your assertion that Tinubu won't get up to 70% votes in SW. No doubt Fashola is a sellable candidate but that doesn't make him more popular or acceptable than Tinubu in SW. Tinubu has good track records as governor of Lagos states and he is obviously not a greedy man. I believe in both Tinubu and Fashola but your assertion is very wrong.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 8:47pm On Aug 14
That’s why I wrote a phrase “even Fashola” as he has the best chance for a Muslim Muslim ticket. In the SW.
My only submission is this:
You are being romantic in thinking the North will because of religion vote a Southerner over another Northerner of the same religion. The North know the power of the President versus the VP and even Fashola would be shocked that they will go for a fellow Northerner before him.
Any Southerner without the MB and the South facing a Northerner is a goner. Take that to the bank.
Obasanjo knew this that’s why winning SW was do or die with him in 2003 when Buhari started contesting against him.
Osinbajo better be sleeping all day and night in SS and to a smaller extent SE right now.


LegendHero:


Don’t get it wrong bro, the SE &SS will never vote APC up to 40% even with a Christian Osinbajo as president.

The APC need to face the NE ,NW, and SW. NC is usually always 50/50 like you said.

The only best chance of APC is Fashola, Fashola will get at least 85% of the votes in the SW, forget about Yoruba not voting in the same way, they will vote for Fashola and both Muslim and Christian Yorubas will vote without sentiment.

Reason why Fashola will win is not far fetched, the Northerner will be happy he’s a Muslim, he also has a track record , and the major reason is that they know Tinubu cannot control Fashola easily hence the north will think they can cut Tinubu powers with Fashola.

APC should not make the mistake of presenting Osinbajo or even Tinubu. While Tinubu will not get 70% of the vote in the SW, Osinbajo will not get 70% of the vote in the NW & NE.

1 Like

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:54pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
That’s why I wrote a phrase “even Fashola” as he has the best chance for a Muslim Muslim ticket.
My only submission is this:
You are being romantic in thinking the North will because of religion vote a Southerner over another Northerner of the same religion. The North know the power of the President versus the VP and even Fashola would be shocked that they will go for a fellow Northerner before him.
Any Southerner without the MB and the South facing a Northerner is a goner. Take that to the bank.
Osinbajo better be sleeping all day and night in SS and to a smaller extent SE right now.



Well you also have a point and no argument is supreme over the other.

But I just have my reservation that the SW should NOT depend on the SS & SE to give Osinbajo a 40% vote. It will be fatal to make that assumptions.

The SS & SE are core PDP states and they will by default vote any one presented by PDP. We need the vote of the NE and NW more than we need the other south.

Northerners will actually vote for Fashola because most people love and believe in that man. Did you watch Fashola’s ministerial screening in 2015 in the senate? Northern senators respected that man so much during that shell creeping and he will be sellable in the north.

3 Likes

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 8:54pm On Aug 14
LegendHero:


You should understand the mind of the SW voters, they sometimes both based on conviction and logical deduction.

Tinubu wronged some people in SW and others might think Tinubu is part of the old political class and they will be skeptical to vote him. Propaganda can also start flying around by the opposition about Tinubu corruption cases or other stuffs.

What SW need to win the presidency is to win at least 85% of the vote cast in SW. Tinubu will not be able to beat that benchmark infact there might be voter apathy in the SW which will decrease the turnout of voters.

Not that people don’t love Tinubu, and it’s sure he will win the SW but the main thing is to win SW overwhelming and that can only be achieved by Fashola or Osinbajo.

But my fear is that Osinbajo may not get that much vote in the NE and NW.

Hence I think a Fashola should be the better choice.
I understand your point of view well but you should also understand there will be propaganda and counter propaganda no matter how clean the candidate is. Take Buhari for instance, ain't propagandas flying around when he wanted to contest? Didn't they accused him of the agenda of Islamizing Nigeria? No matter the clean record of the politician, there will always be propaganda. So I feel thats not a good reason for Fashola to be more acceptable in SW than Tinubu.

Any candidate presented in SW will pull a reasonable votes in the zone. I only emphasis on Muslim/Muslim ticket because of the northern votes. If Osinbanjo is presented today as flag bearer of APC, he will still get a reasonable votes in SW just that the north might be sentimental when it comes to religion.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 8:54pm On Aug 14
Tribe and religion

Not certain the day would come when we as Nigerians would stop thinking across those lines and making decisions on those two factors .


It’s all a sham .


Wake up
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 8:58pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:


I won't subscribe to your assertion that Tinubu won't get up to 70% votes in SW. No doubt Fashola is a sellable candidate but that doesn't make him more popular or acceptable than Tinubu in SW. Tinubu has good track records as governor of Lagos states and he is obviously not a greedy man. I believe in both Tinubu and Fashola but your assertion is very wrong.

I love Tinubu also but I think he might not get that 85% vote from the SW.

I’m not saying he will not win, of course he will win the SW but we need the Yorubas to give an overwhelming vote and we shouldn’t leave matter left to chance.

There will be voter apathy to some extent with Tinubu, but a Fashola on the ballot will even inspire the youth to go out and vote coz he has such great record as a governor and he’s so brilliant.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:01pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:

I understand your point of view well but you should also understand there will be propaganda and counter propaganda no matter how clean the candidate is. Take Buhari for instance, ain't propagandas flying around when he wanted to contest? Didn't they accused him of the agenda of Islamizing Nigeria? No matter the clean record of the politician, there will always be propaganda. So I feel thats not a good reason for Fashola to be more acceptable in SW than Tinubu.

Any candidate presented in SW will pull a reasonable votes in the zone. I only emphasis on Muslim/Muslim ticket because of the northern votes. If Osinbanjo is presented today as flag bearer of APC, he will still get a reasonable votes in SW just that the north might be sentimental when it comes to religion.

You are totally correct tho.

Osinbajo will get 85% vote or more in the SW but I’m afraid of the core north vote.

Fashola will get the 85% vote or more also in SW and will get more vote than an Osinbajo in the north by normal reasoning.

Tinubu is too powerful, some northern cabals might even want to work against him coz they wouldn’t want someone that powerful as the president. Although this argument is left to debate.

1 Like

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:02pm On Aug 14
LegendHero:


I love Tinubu also but I think he might not get that 85% vote from the SW.

I’m not saying he will not win, of course he will win the SW but we need the Yorubas to give an overwhelming vote and we shouldn’t leave matter left to chance.

There will be voter apathy to some extent with Tinubu, but a Fashola on the ballot will even inspire the youth to go out and vote coz he has such great record as a governor and he’s so brilliant.

Well, both are not bad candidates. They are both good to go

1 Like

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:03pm On Aug 14
omicpet:
Tribe and religion

Not certain the day would come when we as Nigerians would stop thinking across those lines and making decisions on those two factors .


It’s all a sham .


Wake up
You can't separate tribe and religion from politics.

They are very important factors in strategising in politics.

1 Like

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:10pm On Aug 14
LegendHero:


You are totally correct tho.

Osinbajo will get 85% vote or more in the SW but I’m afraid of the core north vote.

Fashola will get the 85% vote or more also in SW and will get more vote than an Osinbajo in the north by normal reasoning.

Tinubu is too powerful, some northern cabals might even want to work against him coz they wouldn’t want someone that powerful as the president. Although this argument is left to debate.
Your last paragraph. The cabals are Buharis men. I dnt think they will go against their master. The last time we had a powerful president was during a Yoruba man's tenure (obasanjo). The only person who can stop Tinubu presidency is APC is Buhari. Once he gets his support, most of the northerners will follow .

2 Likes

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 9:11pm On Aug 14
I agree. Also you have to consider external forces.
The US and UK elections will matter. If it’s a republican and Conservative party in office when 2023 rolls around, it’s likely to be a Christian candidate that will be supported and depending on where Obasanjo is at that point in time, he will be whispering in the ears of the US to ensure only a Christain gets in.
I’m Yoruba and I think we would readily vote for Fashola despite Muslim/muslim ticket, but I think you can forget SS and SE significantly in that scenario. If for some reason the North goes for the Northerner PDP, his goose is cooked

LegendHero:


I love Tinubu also but I think he might not get that 85% vote from the SW.

I’m not saying he will not win, of course he will win the SW but we need the Yorubas to give an overwhelming vote and we shouldn’t leave matter left to chance.

There will be voter apathy to some extent with Tinubu, but a Fashola on the ballot will even inspire the youth to go out and vote coz he has such great record as a governor and he’s so brilliant.

1 Like

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:14pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:

Your last paragraph. The cabals are Buharis men. I dnt think they will go against their master. The last time we had a power president was during a Yoruba man's tenure (obasanjo). The only person who can stop Tinubu presidency is APC is Buhari. Once he gets his support, most of the northerners will follow .

Correct. You have a point.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by LegendHero: 9:18pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
I agree. Also you have to consider external forces.
The US and UK elections will matter. If it’s a republican and Conservative party in office when 2023 rolls around, it’s likely to be a Christian candidate that will be supported and depending on where Obasanjo is at that point in time, he will be whispering in the ears of the US to ensure only a Christain gets in.
I’m Yoruba and I think we would readily vote for Fashola despite Muslim/muslim ticket, but I think you can forget SS and SE significantly in that scenario. If for some reason the North goes for the Northerner PDP, his goose is cooked


You truly have a point to be honest. It’s really a dicey situation. APC just gotta do a lot of tactical calculation before unveiling their candidate. They should make sure they select the candidate that will yield the optimal
vote.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:27pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
I agree. Also you have to consider external forces.
The US and UK elections will matter. If it’s a republican and Conservative party in office when 2023 rolls around, it’s likely to be a Christian candidate that will be supported and depending on where Obasanjo is at that point in time, he will be whispering in the ears of the US to ensure only a Christain gets in.
I’m Yoruba and I think we would readily vote for Fashola despite Muslim/muslim ticket, but I think you can forget SS and SE significantly in that scenario. If for some reason the North goes for the Northerner PDP, his goose is cooked

External forces do not determine who win an election in Nigeria. We are far beyond that level. What matters most is the internal strategy. The UK and US don't have any effect on the choice of candidate by electorates.
Trump tried it and Nigerians put him in his right place. Obasanjo also did and electorates made him understand he has no influence on who wins election in Nigeria

Americans won't come to Nigeria to vote na we go do the voting ourselves.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 9:30pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:

You can't separate tribe and religion from politics.

They are very important factors in strategising in politics.

Do those politicians consider tribe and religion when embezzling the funds amongst themselves ?

Do they consider it when marrying their kids off to each other ?

Be wise bro , they throw the religion and tribe coins up so the populace have something to feed on and align with.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by Shinjitsu: 9:36pm On Aug 14
Thiefnibu won't be happy about this news

Lol
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:37pm On Aug 14
omicpet:


Do those politicians consider tribe and religion when embezzling the funds amongst themselves ?

Do they consider it when marrying their kids off to each other ?

Be wise bro , they throw the religion and tribe coins up so the populace have something to feed on and align with.



I understand you. I am just being factual with you.
Politics does not unite people, it divides and thats why we have different political parties and caucuses.

Religion is a tool of division that's why politicians employ it in winning election. Also tribe is also a tool of division cos we have different tribes in Nigeria.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 9:41pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:


I understand you. I am just being factual with you.
Politics does not unite people, it divides and thats why we have different political parties and caucuses.

Religion is a tool of division that's why politicians employ it in winning election. Also tribe is also a tool of division cos we have different tribes in Nigeria.



Do you agree with me that it’s high time majority of the populace who claim to be learned or schooled shouldn’t be divided along religious and tribal lines ?
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by WiLdFLame(m): 9:41pm On Aug 14
now I see you don’t know anything about southwest. Come 2023 the Yoruba nation will be locked down for APC. Large blockvotes that will scare everyone . This is the firsttime the south west will be working really hard with power , strategy and investment in to getting the presidency. 2023 will be just like 1993 in terms of votes
SamNaijaboy:
I think you underestimate how many Yorubas listen to Baba Adeboye & MFM & Oyedepo.
A lot. Their endorsement helped to turn the tide of the Yoruba vote in 2015. They will NOT be endorsing any Muslim Muslim ticket that much I can tell you. And their adherents will sit at home.
I didn’t say they won’t win. The votes will just be suppressed in SW


3 Likes

Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by CrimeKsmart: 9:46pm On Aug 14
omicpet:


Do you agree with me that it’s high time majority of the populace who claim to be learned or schooled shouldn’t be divided along religious and tribal lines ?

I concur 100% . But being learned alone can't stop from being divided along religion or tribal lines. Exposure coupled with a sound education will make people see beyond religion and tribal lines. Most are educated but they aren't exposed
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by WiLdFLame(m): 9:51pm On Aug 14
What’s wrong with you people..who’s more competent than tinubu? Tell me ? Why do you think tinubu won’t get massive vote
LegendHero:


You are very wise.

The best bet for APC is Fashola/El-Rufai .

They need a Muslim Muslim ticket by fronting Fashola for the SW.

Don’t make a mistake, the SE &SS will never vote a Yoruba candidate coz he’s a Christian. They won’t vote Osinbajo.

SW don’t care about religion and they will vote Fashola overwhelmingly and the rest is left to the NE and NE to vote with El-Rufai as VP.

If Tinubu makes a mistake of vying for the presidency, APC will not get the required massive vote from even the SW.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by TSRC: 9:56pm On Aug 14
The PDP is winning the south in 2023 as usual regardless of the candidate . tongue
If they can retain their showing in 2019 and take advantage of buhari absence in the poll to really penetrate in the APC parts of the north, they would win.

Hopefully, it is an Igbo candidate. Anyone of Peter obi or umahi will do.
Peter obi is already known nationally thanks to the 2019 elections.
And umahi is good with the buhari fan base.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 10:17pm On Aug 14
Expecting June 12 to happen again after the herdsmen issue is just dreaming.
Didn’t they work really hard this time and the PDP won two states even with Osinbajo as VP?
And that was before the herdsmen issue got really bad in the SW? That was as a result of the view of Buhari as being incompetent economically and in camaraderie with the MB who was being overrun by herdsmen killings. Now that it’s worse in the SW you think there isn’t some blowback coming with the choice of an all Muslim ticket. Okay oh.

They better wait till they see what the PDP does first before deciding who their flag bearer would be as even Obasanjo did not dare go against a Northerner in 2003 without MB and the South in his kitty.

You know a friend from how he treats you and with Buhari and the Northern Fulani supremacists in power (and with the Ruga plans that were unveiled) there is something a bit more sinister brewing and all bets are off. No guarantee that they aren’t going to switch support at the last minute to the PDP guy as long as he is Fulani.
Actually if you are Yoruba, I would plan on that outcome.

WiLdFLame:
now I see you don’t know anything about southwest. Come 2023 the Yoruba nation will be locked down for APC. Large blockvotes that will scare everyone . This is the firsttime the south west will be working really hard with power , strategy and investment in to getting the presidency. 2023 will be just like 1993 in terms of votes
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by SamNaijaboy: 10:39pm On Aug 14
Depends on the PDP candidate


TSRC:
The PDP is winning the south in 2023 as usual regardless of the candidate . tongue
If they can retain their showing in 2019 and take advantage of buhari absence in the poll to really penetrate in the APC parts of the north, they would win.

Hopefully, it is an Igbo candidate. Anyone of Peter obi or umahi will do.
Peter obi is already known nationally thanks to the 2019 elections.
And umahi is good with the buhari fan base.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by omicpet(m): 10:47pm On Aug 14
CrimeKsmart:

I concur 100% . But being learned alone can't stop from being divided along religion or tribal lines. Exposure coupled with a sound education will make people see beyond religion and tribal lines. Most are educated but they aren't exposed

You couldn’t have said it any better
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by TSRC: 10:50pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
Depends on the PDP candidate


It always depends on the candidate.
My analysis works for those two candidates unless APC is running with a Northerner as President.

The VP for the pdp needs to be a very popular Northerner too.
Re: El-rufai Opens The Battleground For 2023 Presidency by fk001(m): 11:16pm On Aug 14
SamNaijaboy:
What happened in 2015? Northern PDP crossed over to APC. What makes you think that will not happen again, but this time in the opposite direction?
There will be a series of alignment in the North before the election. You see a lot of people are suspecting the North wants to hold on to power and if this is the case, that can only happen in the PDP. So they’ll move.
Whoever cannot hold the whole of the SW for the APC is a losing candidate and a Muslim SW person is unlikely to drive out people even if it’s Fashola unless the VP is a Christain (As the Yoruba churches won’t give their seal of approval on a Muslim Muslim ticket and a lot will sit at home rather than vote).
If it’s just about any Yoruba, why did Tinubu stand down for Osinbajo, or Buhari’s initial choice of Fashola was not advisable as VP?

Unfortunately a Northern Christain VP won’t happen as they need a popular northerner VP to counter PDP’s Northerner If PDP decides a Northerner is candidate.
The Northerners that value the stability of the country and the Christain Northerners will vote the APC candidate. With 40-45% (losing but substantial votes) from the SE and SS (some southerners would prefer a christain to another Muslim Fulani after Buhari’s 8 yrs), 75% from SW and 60% from the MB (majority christain & fulani herdsmen unloving), May be able to win by choosing a NE VP to win the NE





I have been following your conversation, but let me tell you the bitter truth.


Christian Northerners are PDP by default if you like fill in a reverend in APC and a shieck in PDP they will vote PDP, same goes to SE and SS.


SE, SS and Christian Northerners doesn't hate Hausa, Fulani or Muslims they only detest Buhari and the party he brought APC. They voted Yar'adua he is a Fulani Muslim and from PDP.

Forget all this herdsmen menace, I promise you whoever PDP filled in come 2023 SE, SS and Christian northerners will give him their 80% votes.

1 Like

(1) (2) (3) (4) (Reply)

Dele Momodu, Lp Presidential Aspirant Resign / B*r*e*a*k*i*n*g News!: Finally The Sponsors Of Boko Haram Step Out / National Conference To Start February 10

(Go Up)

Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health
religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket

Links: (0) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2019 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 250
Disclaimer: Every Nairaland member is solely responsible for anything that he/she posts or uploads on Nairaland.