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Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 5:14pm On Sep 11, 2019
Since the images and videos of the maiming and killing of black foreigners inSouth Africa began to emerge on various social media platforms last week, Nigeriahas been an emotionally frayed place. Tens of thousands of Nigerians live in South African cities and in recent years, they have become frequent targets of xenophobic attacks.

This time, anger in Nigeria boiled over and young Nigerians took to the streets protesting South African aggression and unleashing some of their own on South African-owned businesses.

The Nigerian government felt pressured to act and subsequently recalled its ambassador from Pretoria and announced it was pulling out of the World Economic Forum meeting on Africa which was held in Cape Town. While some Nigerians welcomed the move, others thought it was not enough and called on their government to intervene and rescue its citizens.

Examples abound of powerful countries going to great lengths to protect and repatriate their citizens who have faced danger abroad.

But Nigeria is not one of them. Indeed, in the past, the country has stood its ground on a number of occasions when defending its national interests. In the 1960s, for example, Nigeria had a face-off with Franceover the latter's continuous tests of nuclear weapons in the Sahara desert. The government of Abubakar Tafawa Balewa acted decisively, breaking diplomatic relations with Paris, expelling the French ambassador and imposing a full embargo on French goods.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Nigeria led the international effort to isolate and pressure the apartheid regime in South Africa. It threatened economic action against Western powers for refusing to sanction the regime and supported the national liberation movements in Southern Africa, including the African Nation Congress (ANC), with millions of dollarsannually.

In the 1990s, the country, under the leadership of military ruler Sani Abacha, defied international sanctions and welcomed a visit by Libyan leaderMuammar Gaddafi. It also directly intervened in the Liberian civil war, dispatching Nigerian troops to fight.

Most of the reactions to the violent attacks on Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa reflect a yearning for Abacha-style diplomacy. But as recent developments in its relations with the United Statesdemonstrated, Nigeria can no longer wield such diplomatic power. Last month, the Nigerian government was spectacularly quick to react to the US's reciprocal rise in visa fees by reducing the charge for Americans applying for a visa to enter the country. And last year President Muhammadu Buhari decided to "keep quiet" on President Donald Trump's alleged "s***hole" remark about African nations.

At present, it is clear Nigeria does not have the military, the intelligence capability or the diplomatic clout to pursue a serious escalation against even a regional power, such as South Africa.

This diplomatic "standoff" with Pretoria has exposed the weakness Abuja has masked in parading itself as a self-styled "Giant of Africa". South Africa used to be a bully that Nigeria could restrain through its support for proxies inside the country and its neighbourhood. But since the end apartheid, this relationship has evolved into a regional competition, which Pretoria is winning.

After the sanctions and international isolation were lifted, South Africa quickly became the continent's more favoured ally of developed economies and foreign investors. Pretoria emerged as the recipient of the largest share of foreign direct investment in sub-Saharan Africa and in 2011 joined the BRIC countries in an economic pact formed to challenge the domination of Western economic policy.

It is also an important trading partner that Nigeria cannot afford to lose. South African businesses have major investments in the country, including the DSTV cable service, MTN telecom, the Shoprite supermarket chain and others. Nigeria exports $3.83bn worth of goods, mostly oil and oil products, to South Africa. By contrast, it imports just $514.3m of South African products, which accounts for less than one percent of total South African exports.

The more contrasting feature of the two economies, and which again highlights Nigeria's weakness is that while Abuja levers around a commodity-dependent economy, Pretoria has built a highly-diversified economy with a superior industrial structure. In other words, Nigeria needs South Africa economically, much more than South Africa needs Nigeria.

Nigeria's geopolitical power has also waned in recent years, while South Africa has remained a major regional power. Abuja has been battling with a rebellion in the north for years and has struggled to put a stop to flares of tribal violence regularly killing dozens of people. In its neighbourhood, Nigeria continues to feel largely insecure, surrounded by Francophone countries whose allegiances to France threaten the commitment of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to stability and non-aggression in the region.

The Nigerian government has also been unable to muster enough influence in the West to become a trusted partner. In 2014, the Obama administration, for example, blocked the sale of arms to the Nigerian military. The Trump administration decided to proceed with it but under heavy conditions which Nigerian officials have deemed "unacceptable". Western reluctance to sell weapons to Abuja has pressed it to seek arms on the black market. South Africa has embarrassed it twice in recent years by intercepting large arms shipment bound for Nigeria.

In this sense, the Nigerian government cannot do anything about the violence against its citizens in South Africa beyond making a few symbolic diplomatic moves and bringing up once again the Nigerian role in liberating South Africans from its white oppressors. It is clear that in doing so it is addressing Pretoria from the position of weakness.

Indeed, using persistent references to sub-Saharan African commonality and solidarity as a result of shared history, race and geography is not an effective foreign policy tool.

The idea of One Africa is a farce taken too far, and successive Nigerian elites have pandered to this fantasy to the detriment of national interests. The legacy of this pan-African misadventure is a geopolitically weak Nigeria which cannot stand up to for itself and for its citizens

This very much has to do with mismanagement of the economy. The redemption Nigeria needs is one that moves the country away from dependence on oil exports, foreign imports and interventions and towards diversification and industrialisation. We cannot afford to glorify the idea of producing pencils in the age of artificial intelligence any more.

Only if the country becomes materially secure and industrially productive will it be able to regain its soft power and international clout and stand up to the old bullies in its neighbourhood.
curlled from

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/indepth/opinion/nigeria-nigerians-xenophobic-attacks-south-africa-190908200649204.html

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Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 5:17pm On Sep 11, 2019
this is how the whites thinks about Nigeria now pathetic
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by tayebest(m): 5:22pm On Sep 11, 2019
Assuming Buhari has send that air fighter jets to South Africa with our flag hovering under it. Threatening the hell outta South Africa and her citizen. And should cut all diplomatic ties with them. sad

Aljazeera won't be here spewing thrash! angry
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by babyfaceafrica: 5:44pm On Sep 11, 2019
trash!
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by helinues: 5:48pm On Sep 11, 2019
Then Trump would have bombed the entire North Korea if that's how things work.
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Charleys: 6:14pm On Sep 11, 2019
South Africa is better than Nigeria. Truth hurts so much.
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Gandollaar(f): 6:56pm On Sep 11, 2019
inereunwa1:
this is how the whites thinks about Nigeria now pathetic
But that is exactly how we are, too bad.
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Gandollaar(f): 6:59pm On Sep 11, 2019
babyfaceafrica:
trash!
Says a shittholer. Truth hurts. Denying the truth of ones inadequacy is unpatriotic

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Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Gandollaar(f): 7:01pm On Sep 11, 2019
And south Africans would read this and grin widely. embarassed
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 7:46pm On Sep 11, 2019
Gandollaar:
But that is exactly how we are, too bad.
the thing tire me too!!
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 7:54pm On Sep 11, 2019
tayebest:
Assuming Buhari has send that air fighter jets to South Africa with our flag hovering under it. Threatening the hell outta South Africa and her citizen. And should cut all diplomatic ties with them. sad

Aljazeera won't be here spewing thrash! angry
it isn't always about that, first Nigeria should have used its diplomatic powers to boycott south Africa through AU and ECOWAS and also utilize it status as the giants of Africa!! that would have brought south Africa to their knees!! so its not always about using military power its should only be used if all other diplomat failed and last resort!
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by tayebest(m): 9:48pm On Sep 11, 2019
inereunwa1:
it isn't always about that, first Nigeria should have used its diplomatic powers to boycott south Africa through AU and ECOWAS and also utilize it status as the giants of Africa!! that would have brought south Africa to their knees!! so its not always about using military power its should only be used if all other diplomat failed and last resort!

See ehn, sometimes all this diplomatic moves don't work. I expect AU to have stepped in and utter some aggressive measures, but, No. Nigeria just need to man and take drastic measures.

Even though we are to take some diplomatic steps, we still need some hard moves. SA are taking us for granted. Imagine those lazy youths carrying out xenophobic protests and police are not doing poo.

We need to send some threats to them. The air fighter jets I mentioned earlier was just to send message to them that they don't have monopoly of violence. We dont have to attack them first with aggression. We are Africa giant for a reason!
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 10:19pm On Sep 11, 2019
tayebest:


See ehn, sometimes all this diplomatic moves don't work. I expect AU to have stepped in and utter some aggressive measures, but, No. Nigeria just need to man and take drastic measures.

Even though we are to take some diplomatic steps, we still need some hard moves. SA are taking us for granted. Imagine those lazy youths carrying out xenophobic protests and police are not doing poo.

We need to send some threats to them. The air fighter jets I mentioned earlier was just to send message to them that they don't have monopoly of violence. We dont have to attack them first with aggression. We are Africa giant for a reason!
yes I get where you are going with that but in terms of military power Nigeria is behind south Africa and it was rightly pointed out in the article above, and the other thing I agree with you is that of the AU; they are just there for formalities nothing more!!! take example from the many atrocities committed by many members states, despite all the evidence, yet no sanctions or any action to curtailed their evil deeds! it's the same thing with UN etc they are just there for reasons only known to them which are "selected few" despite all the evils happening around the world they still treats it with kids gloves!! and why haven't they condemned the xenophobic act already!! I have other things to say but I don't want to get banned !
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Banmeallday: 10:47pm On Sep 11, 2019
Wow,Nigeria doesnt have the military to confront SA, even with all the stupid “Generals” that have not gone to war except against civilians....despite all the military Excellencies and coup plotters, including Buhari.....


Yet fools will come and post the so called Nigger Area army “military” training exercises with dogs and old 1960s bombers, sliding from poles and thinking they doing something serious.....


Joke of a nation
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by Rosskiki: 10:54pm On Sep 11, 2019
That article is PURE GARBAGE.

Militarily, Nigeria can defeat South Africa with proper strategy. The difference between both militaries is very small. Plus the Nigerian military is far more battle hardened and battle ready than the SA military, who haven't fought any wars in recent history. In a conflict, Nigeria will smartly seek allies in countries like Egypt and Ethiopia, to add extra firepower and air support. Believe me SA can be beaten black and blue if Nigeria really wants to go for it.


TOP AFRICAN COUNTRIES BY MILITARY POWER:

1 EGYPT
2 ALGERIA
3 SOUTH AFRICA
4 NIGERIA
5 ETHIOPIA
6 ANGOLA
7 MOROCCO
8 SUDAN
9 DRC
10 LIBYA

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-africa.asp
Re: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford A Stand-off With South Africa by inereunwa1(m): 7:14pm On Sep 13, 2019
@ Lalasticlala please push this to front page let's discuss the way forward for we country naija!

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