Preface

In the third quarter of 2016, the Nigerian economy officially slipped into a recession. Even though this was expected since the price of crude oil which is the main stay of the Nigerian economy had been on a downward spiral since 2014, i was still shocked that the Nigerian government never took any meaningful steps to avert the then imminent recession.

Given the time frame between the events that led to the recession and the recession itself, the two administrations of Jonathan and Buhari ought to be held responsible for their actions or lack of it which made the country fall into recession. While it is understandable (but not excusable) that in an election year, the economy will receive very little attention as politicians will be fully engrossed with their politicking and this may perhaps explain why the Jonathan administration failed to take necessary steps to avert the recession, i had expected that the incoming Buhari administration knowing fully well that it was taking over a depressed economy would have constituted a strong economic team immediately upon resuming office and get to work straight away on taking steps and measures to avoid the recession and revamp the economy.

Sadly the administration never gave it a thought and did not even deem it fit to even appoint an economic adviser at a time the country needed sound economic thinking the most. To me, it was this irresponsible inaction on the part of government that was most responsible for the 2016 recession.
Only a few years earlier between 2006 and 2011, the Nigerian economy was the fastest growing in Africa and one of the fastest growing in the world. This culminated in Nigeria being recognized as the biggest economy in Africa and the 25th biggest economy in the world in 2013 with a GDP size in excess of $500 billion.

The country was even projected to become one of the top ten biggest economies in the world by 2040 given the growth rate then and the potentials inherent in the country’s economy. It was thus a huge anti climax when just a few years down the line the country was allowed to slide into an avoidable recession in 2016 and emerged as the “Poverty capital of the world” in 2018.

The even worse thing is that whilst other poor countries were developing their economies and pulling their citizens out of poverty, studies showed that poverty rate in Nigeria was on the increase with 6 citizens being plunged into poverty every minute culminating in 3,153,600 additional Nigerians falling into poverty every year under the present administration. This amounted to a really sad development for a country that had the potentials of being one of the fastest growing economies in the world if only the country had good leadership and the right economic policies had been put in place.
It was this seeming contradiction between the huge potential of the Nigerian economy and the sad reality of growing poverty in the country today that spurred me on to write this book.

Given my training as an economist and my passion for the Nigerian economy, i have always monitored developments in the Nigerian economy and given deep thoughts to proffering solutions for the various economic problems that she has, with my ultimate desire being to see a Nigerian economy that will be amongst the biggest and most stable in the world.

I also realized that the country’s greatest asset (the people) was also her greatest liability and the key to fully unlocking the potentials of the Nigerian economy lies with being able to fully harness her human capital potentials. This can be achieved through a massive national re-orientation program to change the way we think and our attitude as Nigerians and through massive investments in education at all levels. It is only on this basis that the economic policies suggested in this book will work and the long term sustainability will be assured.

In writing this book, i have taken time to study and carry out research on the Nigerian economy and i have been able to proffer solutions and suggestions with which we can rapidly grow the country’s economy. However i am not naive enough to believe that it will work perfectly even if the suggestions in it are adopted wholesale by the government because as we economist will say “Ceteris paribus” which means it will work only if “all things being equal” and as we know, all things in Nigeria are never equal as vested interests will always vehemently resist anything that threatens the status quo.

Also for the economic plan to work it will need a very strong a determined leadership that will have to take decisions that are not politically expedient. This means that the political class might not be so willing to implement some of the ideas suggested in the plan but in all i hope i have been able to demonstrate through this book the huge potentials of the Nigerian economy and perhaps maybe some day, policy makers might decide to borrow some of the ideas proffered in it to implement and grow our economy for the benefit of all Nigerians.

PS: Coming out soon

About the author

Kunle Oshobi is a management consultant and development economist with a very rich working career spanning across manufacturing, insurance and the telecoms sectors where he worked in Audit, Accounting, Sales and Marketing functions with over twenty five years of cognate experience. He is also a Google Certified Digital Marketing Professional.

Given this background, Kunle has been able to assist several companies and organisations in Nigeria succeed in growing their businesses and avoid failure based on reasons ranging from corporate governance issues, poor brand value articulation, poor sales strategy, lack of planning and promotion, poor brand reputation and media management, human capital deficiency, to absence of marketing communication.

Growing up as a child, as a result of his love for economics as a subject of study, Kunle developed a deep passion for the development of the Nigerian economy and yearned to play a role in contributing significantly to the country’s economic development. It was this passion that inspired him to study the course as a degree program in the university.

Having closely monitored economic events in the country for the last thirty years, trained as an economist, developed a very good understanding of Nigeria’s economy and given his burning and passionate desire for the development of the country’s economy, this book was written by Kunle in the hope that it will contribute meaningfully to the economic development of the country or at the very least stimulate a national conversation on how best to develop the country’s economy with the ultimate aim of a better standard of living and quality of life for all Nigerians.

FOREWORD
by Donald Duke

In this work Project Nigeria, Kunle Oshobi takes us through the frightening challenges that Nigeria faces against the enormous potential that it abounds and surmises the urgency of now. With an unbridled population growth averaging 3.5% and an economic growth slagging in the lower 2%, the overall economy has recessed over the years with Gross Domestic Product per capita being severely eroded due to an inadequacy of the factors of production, power, access to availability and affordability of financing, poor infrastructure etc. Despite the much-touted progress being made under the aegis of “ease of doing business”, the effects are hardly felt and there is almost an unanimity that Nigeria poses, as one of the most difficult business environments on the continent.

The Nigerian potential is in no doubt. Take for instance the telecommunications industry, recently a telecoms company declared in its annual report a gross annual revenue of 1.2 trillion Naira which amounts to about 12% of the nation's budget. The combined revenues of the four major telecom companies could probably average about 25% of the budget of the nation. One sector! This in itself begs the question, do our economic managers understand what is happening? Are they able to match the enormous potential against the enormous challenges? Do they appreciate the urgency that a potentially already failing state portends for the nation, the sub region and its global implications?

In a generation, Nigeria’s population is postulated to double from its current 200 million to 400, thus making her the 3rd most populous nation on earth. With about half living below the poverty line, the consequences if not urgently addressed may trigger a situation difficult to contemplate. Despite an abundance of resources, the nation seems to have stalled its comfort at fossil fuels where for the last 40 years the daily output has hardly matched its installed capacity of 2.5mbd. But in real terms, cost of production has gone from an average of $5 in the seventies to the lower $20s today. In other words, net receipts have grossly dipped. Indeed, the nation’s federal budget has hovered at about $25 billion over the last 40 years but in real terms, value has ebbed severely. This is stark! Within this period the population has grown from 80 to 200 million.

The earlier reference to the telecommunication’s sector revenue averaging about 25% of the budget speaks of a gross dereliction or inadequacy in revenue collection by the revenue authorities, particularly when compared with our tax to GDP ratio at barely 5%. Oshobi urges focus on the levers of production, education and skills as human capital development, healthcare and infrastructure. He urges certain critical sectors with the potential of job creation and impact to be pursued with unrelenting vigor.

Towards achieving this, our trade policy must change. It must be based on reciprocity and trade or investment balance. Leveraging on our large consumer market, we must coerce our trade partners to invest in critical sectors of the Nigerian economy, inclusive of agriculture, infrastructure, defence industry, consumer products, health and skills development sectors. This will stem the further hemorrhaging of the economy, create jobs and infuse technology transfer. Adding value to imported items by allowing, for instance, only consumer electronics products as CKD and thereby compelling the assembly of these items locally will not only create jobs but will ensure skills and technology transfer.

Another policy area requiring re-visitation is the hardly compelling economic logic in demanding that trade within the ECOWAS sub region should be conducted in foreign currency. A mechanism that would allow the acceptance and convertibility of local currencies using a nominated existing bank with a wide operating base in the region as a clearinghouse or some designated institution will encourage inter-regional trade, allowing these countries conserve their foreign currencies for high valued goods not produced or manufactured within the sub-region.

We ought to explore an array of policy options as a means of encouraging and enhancing productivity within our economy. Our population, if well utilized is a blessing, as is the reverse if current trend continues. Project Nigeria is styled as a blueprint to achieving a growth potential that encapsulates the entire national fabric. Driven based on enhancing the human capital index and focusing on the development of the mind through education and social orientation to ensure the increased productivity of Nigerians. It further delves into the totality of governance as it relates to the nation. For instance, it recognizes that a complete reorientation is required in the attitudes of the government and the governed so that each complements the other towards a single goal, being the overall wellbeing of each citizen.

Using four sectors namely for illustrative purposes, financial services, power, agriculture and its allied industries and petrochemicals which are by no means exhaustive, Kunle has advocated these sectors with the view that if properly repositioned could by themselves be the fulcrum to catalyze the economic rebirth of the nation. Other sectors of the economy are addressed, identifying the challenges they face and proffering solutions to them.

The aviation sector he postulates, for instance, is bridled with high taxes and levies, inconsistencies in policy thus making it uncompetitive against international players and results in it contributing a meagre 0.4% to GDP as against an average of 10% in Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda and South Africa. Huge losses resulting from over-regulation as stated earlier in the aviation industry and total neglect or under regulation as depicted in road, rail and water transportation resulting in a further potential loss of over 10% of GDP.

The completeness of this work is its analytics of various sectors, identifying the challenges and proffering solutions. Mindful of the human capital and political will to make things happen, the inadequacy of local managerial expertise and the need to groom managers, rather than on the reliance of expatriates.

If anything, what the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic experience has brought to the fore is the veneer thinness and vulnerability of the Nigerian economy. Unable to absorb shocks and consequently operating as a hothouse plant that collapses at the slightest stress, the Nigerian economy operates on the principle of everything being equal. This is a fallacy as nowhere in the world do such conditions exist. Things don’t happen, people make things happen and therefore our budgets and budgeting principles and framework are piecemeal and guesswork that are hardly ever attained.

COVID-19 collapsed the global demand for crude oil, consequently throwing the2020 Nigerian budget into a tailspin. With a poor industrial production base, highly dependent on imports, funded largely by earnings from a single commodity, the entire national socioeconomic fabric descended into tatters. Therefore, the need for a new economic order is not only imperative but long past overdue, for a society that does not help the many that are poor, will be unable to save the few who are rich.

Donald Duke

When people ask me that what have I contributed to the development of the country instead of just criticizing the government of the day on social media, I can now point to my book which contains probably the most ambitious and well thought out Economic growth plan written for the Nigerian economy to date.

It is a plan that will not only transform the Nigerian economy into a top ten global economy within the next fifteen years, it will also raise the standard of living and quality of life of present and unborn generations of Nigerians. Inbox me for details of how to get your copy of this revolutionary book and let's join hands to build the country of our dreams.