A viral social media joke about Burundi (not necessarily true) being the only African country not to record a case of Coronavirus infection was simply linked to the unavailability of testing kits. This is the only way the true state of the contagion could be ascertained in any country. The World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in press conferences has been emphasizing that instruction to countries since the outbreak by saying; 'Test! test!! Test!!!'

Nigeria - the most populous black nation in the world has been proudly lagging in that area and nobody seems to be bothered about the untrue state of figures about infected people that it keeps making public.

Since the 18th of March, 2020, Nigeria has been witnessing a gradual increase in the number of Coronavirus cases. An additional number of 5 cases making up 8 in total prompted the Federal Government to issue travel restrictions against 13 countries on that fateful day following massive pressure from Nigerians on social media and also some representatives of the Nigeria Medical Association.

Despite the travel restrictions, the number of infected people has continued to increase but not at the rate of other countries of the world. Many have attributed this to some sort of luck, high temperatures limiting the virus spread or even answered prayers because Nigeria is a country not only populated with religious people but also very superstitious ones. Presently, we have 111 confirmed cases (as at Monday evening - 30th of March) in Nigeria spreading across 10 states and the FCT, and one might decide to celebrate the low figure thinking an outbreak of the level of what the U.S, Spain, Italy, UK and others is far from Nigeria. The figure is very deceitful and in fact, most of the figures of the infected cases around the world are misleading due to the varying patterns of testing employed by different countries. In essence, the number of Coronavirus cases are largely under-reported and also played down by some countries due to political reasons.

As for Nigeria, the truth is that our testing capacity has been very low and poor with an initial number of 5 NCDC testing laboratories across the 36 states in the country. Testing has been monopolized by government hospitals leaving private hospitals and laboratories out of the equation. The Nigerian government appears to be rationing testing kits by focusing on mostly returnees from Coronavirus-affected countries who display alarming symptoms of the dreaded ailment which has infected over 768,370 and leaving 36,912 others dead across the world. Close contacts of those that tested positive to the virus have also been given top priority. Since this disease could be very elusive as it infects people who unknowingly become carriers and spreaders without falling sick, it spreads rapidly under the radar and in a matter of days, thousands of cases can be confirmed. It only takes one person to maintain contact with a group of people and the infection will begin to spread like the California wildfires.

There is also the belief that the disease has been spreading without the knowledge of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, NCDC. This isn't far from the crude approach of the government which instructs suspected carriers to fill a contact form, self-isolate and keep in touch with the government about their health. Probably out of crass ignorance, carelessness or negligence, the travelers fill in wrong contact details to avoid any sort of disturbance from health officials. Since Nigeria has issues with technology and keeping a database that could help track people with their mere names, phone numbers, fingerprints or pictures like China does, we start to look for such people in futility when its confirmed that an infected person travelled on that same flight with them. Today, the Federal Government is struggling to trace over 6,000 largely uncooperative people who have had direct or indirect contact with index cases. A handful of that big figure could carry the virus, and spread it amongst the over 200 million people we have in the country. That is a huge disaster waiting to happen or probably has happened but yet to be fully unravelled.

As at Tuesday, the 24th of March, 2020, it was revealed that Nigeria had only tested 178 persons while South Korea was already bracing up for the dangers ahead by testing 10,000 people in a single day. It took the intervention of the Chinese billionaire, Jack Ma who donated testing kids and other Personal Protective Equipment before Nigeria scaled up its testing capacity up to 32% and since then, the numbers have been increasing. The informed general public who have been concerned about the unusual snail-speed of the spread of the disease are finally getting a true picture of what lies ahead. The virus is coming for us and we can only pray that its hit in Nigeria will not be too devastating.

Lagos State - the commercial capital of Nigeria has cemented its position as the 'Wuhan' of Nigeria with 59 recorded cases leaving the FCT behind with just 14 cases. The Lagos State government appears to have access to some information about the virus which the general public might not. Its bracing up for a major disaster and it has been making frantic efforts to mitigate the crushing effects. Local transmission which is the major strength of the pandemic hasn't been pronounced in Nigeria but indications have it that its ongoing and its only a matter of time before we start counting infected cases in thousands like countries in Europe and America.

Governor Babajide Sanwo-olu's body language tells it all but he keeps claiming his decisions are more of precautionary. He has urged residents to stay at home with civil servants ordered to work from home. He has partially closed market places as he restricts trading to people dealing in essential commodities. Gatherings of over 20 people have been banned with religious organizations directly affected. He has also been hinting about the possible imposition of curfew if the need arises. Apart from this, some physical structures have also been put in place to combat the virus before it makes a full landfall in Lagos State. A health facility has been set up in Gbagada asides from the Infectious Disease Hospital at Yaba which reportedly boasts of 100 beds. A massive makeshift isolation centre has also been set up at the Onikan stadium to house hundreds of Coronavirus patients. Funds have also been raised from private individuals, corporate organizations and state coffers. Donation of needed health kits, ventilators and others have been gathered from well-meaning Nigerians. Furthermore, the government has set up a food bank to feed over 200,000 households in the state for 14 days during the austerity period.

The Commissioner for Health in Lagos State, Professor Akin Abayomi who has been instrumental to postponing the doomsday isn't mincing words. He doesn't want to be politically correct. He simply wants Lagosians to get their body armours and arsenal ready for the war ahead with the unseen enemy. He must have frightened Lagosians and Nigerians as a whole when he revealed his statistical projection that 39,000 people could be infected with the virus in Lagos. According to him, the figure might be beaten down to 13,000 if Lagosians adhere to the globally recommended practice of social distancing. Which ever way the pendulum swings, this spells doom for not only the state but Nigeria as a whole. The professor is not alone, he is only doing his job with a touch of professionalism. The United Kingdom predicts the death of 20,000 people in the worst case scenario and the Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo is projecting the need for 30,000 ventilators in a similar scenario thereby drawing criticisms from an already overwhelmed President Donald Trump.

I know there is a need to be hopeful but we need to prepare for bad times. There is a way the virus operates. It initially spreads slowly like its doing in Nigeria presently, then balloons into several thousands, claims alot of lives of mostly the elderly including those with pre-existing medical conditions, and then peaks. China went through this process and I believe Nigeria might not be different. The Health Commissioner knows this and he isn't ready to downplay the capability of the virus like Trump dangerously did.

With a bigger testing capacity and widespread testing of patients, the actual number of cases might hit 500-1000 for now and if its not well managed, we might be going the way of Spain, Italy, or Iran.

By Osayimwen Osahon George

Source: http://www.villagetowncrier.com/2020/03/coronavirus-why-number-of-cases-will.html

CC Lalasticlala Seun Ishilove Mynd44 Dominique MissyB3 Fynestboi

We are well aware of the failings of the NCDC. A iittle positivity will help in the fight against this virus.

I'm a business man. No sales in the past week.

I've stocked up on food with the last free cash I have.

Little cash reserves on hand.

But I'm highly positive that we can beat this. Better than these countries you've listed. Las las our I-don't-care attitude will give us the needed immunity.

If with all the multi Million Billion dollars awareness done on HIV/AIDS couldn't stop sturborn Nigerians from spreading it then I think you might have a point (although I badly pray against it)

What did two dick heads who are power drunk did after visiting a highly infected country?

*Seyi Makinde hosted a mega rally of 5000 people to insult Ajimobi and wraped it up with an after party with Davido who has being on tour.. Seyi makinde stupidly assumed his imiunity as a governor covers corona virus, and since he is on the podium and not with masses he is free

*Mere Chief of Staff (executive secretary) felt he is so powerful since Buhari has unconstitutionally made him above board , he traveled to Germany and Egypt while Buhari smartly hide in Aso Rock, and to feel himself invisible he went to a wedding ceremony in company of northern governors and Dangote

just like Malaria which is a protozoa single cell organism about 1 micro meter is still virtually impossible to test everybody at the same time and we just test people with symptoms, COVID 19 virus is 70 nano meters small which is so tiny 700,000 corona virus can fit into just a centimeter it is very hard to test as most microscope cant even pick it up, its also not feasible to have more laboratories to test for corona virus as corona virus are next to invisible and scientist required are limited so is the expensiveness of the lab tools

The most sensible thing we can do is to


* seat at home , self quarantine and break the virus spread, cycle and connectivity chain
* only call NCDC centers after contacting a local hospital that ascertain you to show sign of symptoms , bombarding the call centers with prank call and calls on every sign of sneezing would overwhelm them
*stop overwhelming the few labs that we have with panic and sending in samples even without symptoms
*Till date almighty Americans have only tested about 30,000 cases in the labs because they have limited labs, what can Nigeria do if all our celebrities and politicians are now using lab test for show off while lab scientist are working over overtime



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Finally, a sensible article.
The only way to know it's true epidemiology is to test. For some reason Nigeria is using the same model the United States initially used, even though it's evident that model clearly failed, and the United States is now the world's epicenter for the pandemic.
Nigerias' slow paced and lackadaisical attitude will be her undoing.

are you even sure they are not inflating figures

iammo:


*Till date almighty Americans have only tested about 30,000 cases in the labs because they have limited labs, what can Nigeria do if all our celebrities and politicians are now using lab test for show off while lab scientist are working over overtime
[/b]


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If they have done 'only 30,000 test' then how can they have 145,000+ cases??

Priapus69:


If they have done 'only 30,000 test' then how can they have 145,000+ cases??

lab test for real confirmation like the one done in Lagos , Edo and Abuja NCDC test are different from test that determines severe symptoms like the temperature test, infrared scanner guns etc that wont give definitive result

Too long jor!

iammo:


lab test for real confirmation like the one done in Lagos , Edo and Abuja NCDC test are different from test that determines severe symptoms like the temperature test, infrared scanner guns etc that wont give definitive result

Before you're diagnosed, a confirmatory test is done. And 145,000 case has been identified, if you claim only 30,000 test has be carried out then how did they arrive at the 145k+ figures?

Priapus69:


Before you're diagnosed, a confirmatory test is done. And 145,000 case has been identified, if you claim only 30,000 test has be carried out then how did they arrive at the 145k+ figures?

well I don't work with US CDC or US dept of health and humanitarian, got my data from news site https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

Priapus69:


If they have done 'only 30,000 test' then how can they have 145,000+ cases??

He is talking of lab tests, which is different from tests done with test kits....like the one donated by Jack Ma. The USA did only about 30,000 tests in laboratory under the microscope...and not test kits that look for antigens or antibodies.

tuborme:


He is talking of lab tests, which is different from tests done with test kits....like the one donated by Jack Ma. The USA did only about 30,000 tests in laboratory under the microscope...and not test kits that look for antigens or antibodies.

Alright.