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The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather - Health - Nairaland

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The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Seun(m): 8:52am On Apr 04, 2020
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

In the early days of the Coronavirus scourge, many Nigerians believed that we wouldn't be affected because of our hot weather. Now that we're testing people, we have seen a sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases, to about 210, which is still quite low for a country with 190 million residents. However many people suspect that the virus has penetrated our society far more deeply than the NCDC statistics suggest. We've noticed that people who travelled to colder countries recently or spend most of their time in air-conditioned spaces, or their direct contacts, are massively over-represented among the confirmed cases. Is this because they are the only ones being tested, or is heat a factor?

Here is the list of the 10 countries that have the highest number of active COVID-19 cases, and their forecasted temperatures for the day:
* USA has 257,790 active cases. The temperature forecast for New York is 8°C - 15°C.
* Italy has 85,388 active cases. The temperature forecast for Rome is 7°C - 25°C.
* Spain has 77,488 active cases. The temperature forecast for Madrid is 6°C - 19°C
* Germany has 65,309 active cases. The temperature forecast for Berlin is 1°C - 12°C
* France has 61,650 active cases. The temperature forecast for Paris is 6°C - 17°C
* UK has 34,428 active cases. The temperature forecast for London is 4°C - 16°C
* Iran has 31,954 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tehran is 8°C - 19°C
* Turkey has 20,012 active cases. The temperature forecast for Istanbul is 8°C - 11°C
* Switzerland has 14,169 active cases. The temperature forecast for Geneva is 3°C - 17°C
* Netherlands has 13,986 active cases. The temperature forecast for Amsterdam is 4°C - 14°C

On average, the top ten countries with Coronavirus have a temperature forecast of 5.5 - 16.5°C. The temperature forecast for Lagos is 26°C - 34°C, and for Abuja, it's 24°C - 36°C. This is a massive, massive difference! The maximum temperature of nine of the countries above is lower than the minimum temperature of Lagos. The maximum temperature of 7 of those countries is lower than the minimum thermostat setting of most Nigerian air-conditioners (18°C).

The countries mentioned above are in Africa, Asia or Europe. What about Africa? Here's our top 5:
* South Africa has 1,401 active cases. The temperature forecast for Johannesburg is 9°C - 15°C.
* Algeria has 1,004 active cases. The temperature forecast for Algiers is 9°C - 17°C.
* Egypt has 703 active cases. The temperature forecast for Cairo is 24°C - 34°C.1
* Tunisia has 472 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tunis is 8°C - 17°C.
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. 1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes. This, apart from the lack of testing, may explain why we are yet to see as many cases of transmission outside the circles of travellers and the rich and powerful in Nigeria as expected. It is consistent with what we know about other respiratory illnesses, and why countries like the US expect the disease to slow down in their summer season (starting from June).

When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.

Knowing that the virus hates our hot temperature gives me hope. If a cold country like South Korea (0°C -13°C forecast for today) could beat the virus without destroying their economy by imposing a total lockdown, a constantly hot country like Nigeria could do much better if we used the same tactics. We need to start testing people who have had close contact with confirmed cases before they show symptoms. We also need to enforce universal wearing of face-masks and social distancing everywhere, which in itself may even be sufficient to end the virus.

May your days be bright and hot. May your air-conditioners be off and your windows wide open (to get rid of aerosolized droplets). Cheers.

PS: I always make a lot of mistakes when I post long articles, so if you spot any errors, omissions, or false statements, please correct me.

673 Likes 72 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by TissuePaper: 8:53am On Apr 04, 2020
quiet shout

19 Likes 2 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by legalwealth(m): 8:53am On Apr 04, 2020
Hmm! !!

But some were saying that coronavirus is not affected by but this seems to have proven them wrong.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 8:54am On Apr 04, 2020
Dear Seun Osewa,



What are you giving back to your esteemed members this period?


We all know that it is not the best of times for everyone, and I will suggest you show some appreciation and some act of kindness to members of this forum who are in need.




God bless Nairaland.

Jason.

544 Likes 41 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by dejt4u(m): 8:56am On Apr 04, 2020
Insightful. I like your objectivity

6 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by kelvine(m): 8:58am On Apr 04, 2020
Seun has really been active on the Covid 19 trend.
I hope the lockdown is not affecting your business.
Greetings bro.

113 Likes 8 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nmezor(f): 8:58am On Apr 04, 2020
Nice one Oga Seun

6 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 8:59am On Apr 04, 2020
Thank you Seun...its a hard fact that WHO and the west would never tell you. I harped on our unprecedented temperature rise here, which was a reason for the minimal spread, considering how illiterate and careless the populace is but some never-ready-to-learn on NL took swipe at me. In an extremely cold weather especially when abroad, when I speak, heavy vapour would be coming out of my mouth as if I'm puffing out cigar smoke. Whatever is released in the air stays awhile before it fizzles. Covid-19 easily get spread in a cold region than it does in a hot weather. In like-manner, if you touch any metal or stainless steel in the winter, the finger print remains obvious for a long time.

Those local cases reported were exceptional. They were mainly lovers who had lodged in a hotel since the day the partner arrived in the country. There's AC always in the hotel room. The driver who has been taking the index case upandan inside a chilled uber ride to as far as ekiti tested positive....another proof

106 Likes 3 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by bigiyaro(m): 9:02am On Apr 04, 2020
I also heard that the outer layer of the virus is made up fats, hence the effectiveness of soapy hand wash, it follows logically that heat should drastically shorten its life span.

62 Likes 3 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Illusioneffect(m): 9:06am On Apr 04, 2020
Let's not lose hope, we can make the defeat of coronavirus if we stay at home

1 Like

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by HenryThegreat1(m): 9:08am On Apr 04, 2020
His write up were all educative and informative, in fact I do copy and paste on my .....

25 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by greatme2good(f): 9:15am On Apr 04, 2020
What of during rainy season? Coz we are about entering the season.

37 Likes 2 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by VeeVeeMyLuv(m): 9:15am On Apr 04, 2020
Yeah it has a predilection for cold, respiratory infections generally.

guys here whose workplace environment are always chilled with AC and who themselves work in OR with chillers (big refrigerators and freezers) will agree with me that they are always having catarrh, cold while on the job, some even develop pneumonia.

90 Likes 10 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by VeeVeeMyLuv(m): 9:17am On Apr 04, 2020
greatme2good:
What of during rainy season? Coz we are about entering the season.
yea thought about that too
Let's hope the disease die completely before then

7 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 9:21am On Apr 04, 2020
Guess the people infected are always in cold places

Just a thought

31 Likes 1 Share

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by WIZGUY69(m): 9:23am On Apr 04, 2020
What if i say you should multiply that 210 by 1000? Yes that's the number of case in Nigeria right now. undecided

12 Likes 1 Share

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by babyfaceafrica: 9:28am On Apr 04, 2020
Makes sense

1 Like 1 Share

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by sonofthunder: 9:30am On Apr 04, 2020
Seun:
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

In the early days of the Coronavirus scourge, many Nigerians believed that we wouldn't be affected because of our hot weather. Now that we're testing people, we have seen a sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases, to about 220, which is still very low for a country with 190 million residents. However many people suspect that the virus has penetrated our society far more deeply than the NCDC statistics suggest. We've noticed that people who travelled to colder countries recently or spend most of their time in air-conditioned spaces, or their direct contacts, are massively over-represented among the confirmed cases. Is this because they are the only ones being tested, or is heat a factor?

Here is the list of the 10 countries that have the highest number of active COVID-19 cases, and their forecasted temperatures for the day:
* USA has 257,790 active cases. The temperature forecast for New York is 8°C - 15°C.
* Italy has 85,388 active cases. The temperature forecast for Rome is 7°C - 25°C.
* Spain has 77,488 active cases. The temperature forecast for Madrid is 6°C - 19°C
* Germany has 65,309 active cases. The temperature forecast for Berlin is 1°C - 12°C
* France has 61,650 active cases. The temperature forecast for Paris is 6°C - 17°C
* UK has 34,428 active cases. The temperature forecast for London is 4°C - 16°C
* Iran has 31,954 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tehran is 8°C - 19°C
* Turkey has 20,012 active cases. The temperature forecast for Istanbul is 8°C - 11°C
* Switzerland has 14,169 active cases. The temperature forecast for Geneva is 3°C - 17°C
* Netherlands has 13,986 active cases. The temperature forecast for Amsterdam is 4°C - 14°C

On average, the top ten countries with Coronavirus have a temperature forecast of 5.5 - 16.5°C. The temperature forecast for Lagos is 26°C - 34°C, and for Abuja, it's 24°C - 36°C. This is a massive, massive difference! The maximum temperature of nine of the countries above is lower than the minimum temperature of Lagos. The maximum temperature of 7 of those countries is lower than the minimum thermostat setting of most Nigerian air-conditioners (18°C).

The countries mentioned above are in Africa, Asia or Europe. What about Africa? Here's our top 5:
* South Africa has 1,401 active cases. The temperature forecast for Johannesburg is 9°C - 15°C.
* Algeria has 1,004 active cases. The temperature forecast for Algiers is 9°C - 17°C.
* Egypt has 703 active cases. The temperature forecast for Cairo is 24°C - 34°C.1
* Tunisia has 472 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tunis is 8°C - 17°C.
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. 1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes. This, apart from the lack of testing, may explain why we are yet to see any significant evidence of transmission outside the circles of travellers and the rich and powerful in Nigeria. It is consistent with what we know about other respiratory illnesses, and why countries like the US expect the disease to slow down in their summer season (starting from June).

When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.

Knowing that the virus hates our hot temperature gives me hope. If a cold country like South Korea (0°C -13°C forecast for today) could beat the virus without destroying their economy by imposing a total lockdown, a constantly hot country like Nigeria could do much better if we used the same tactics. We need to start testing people who have had close contact with confirmed cases before they show symptoms. We also need to enforce universal wearing of face-masks and social distancing everywhere, which in itself may even be sufficient to end the virus.

May your days be bright and hot. May your air-conditioners be off and your windows wide open (to get rid of aerosolized droplets). Cheers.

PS: I always make a lot of mistakes when I post long articles, so if you spot any errors, omissions, or false statements, please correct me.
I quite agree with your analysis. Anyone that needs to know more on this can search for Dr. Eric Berg on YouTube and watch his recent videos on corona virus. The virus spread is much similar to the Spanish flu and it thrives with lower levels of sunlight which commutates into lower immune levels due to lower levels of vitamin D synthesized in the body. People that still have access to pharmacies can buy vitamin D supplements to to help boost their immune system, especially as we now spend most of our time indoors.

Modified: Also zinc rich foods is important this period. If you really want to understand how this works then go to the channel I mentioned above.

42 Likes 4 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 9:34am On Apr 04, 2020
I talk am before. Na weather dey help us not the stealing states and federal governments. tongue

Massive raining season is almost here. The temperature is definitely going to drop.
They better find cure or control it to the bearest minimum before the rains hit or else we are all fvcked.

29 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 9:36am On Apr 04, 2020
Erediauwa:
Dear Seun Osewa,



What are you giving back to your esteemed members this period?


We all know that it is not the best of times for everyone, and I will suggest you show some appreciation and some act of kindness to members of this forum who are in need.




God bless Nairaland.

Jason.
giving is not by force. Hustle

21 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Nobody: 9:38am On Apr 04, 2020
Kekereekun123:
giving is not by force. Hustle
Is anyone forcing him to do so?


Don't be silly bro.

110 Likes 5 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Lanre4uonly(m): 9:41am On Apr 04, 2020
This moment too shall pass.

1 Like

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by Seun(m): 10:04am On Apr 04, 2020
greatme2good:
What of during rainy season? Coz we are about entering the season.
I think it will spread faster. Especially in June (24°C - 30°C) and July-September (23°C - 29°C) which will still be considered warm elsewhere.

Fortunately, we have enough time to put a mask on every face, and enforce good hygienic practices like washing of hands before entering any market, store, school, church, bank, etc. Enough time to ramp up our testing capabilities massively so we can isolate almost every single person who has the virus, including those who haven't experienced any symptoms of the disease. Meanwhile, our economy can continue to run so that the taxes needed to fund NCDC's aggressive efforts will continue to be paid by profitable businesses and employed workers.

81 Likes 6 Shares

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by yesloaded: 10:23am On Apr 04, 2020
Seun:

I think it will spread faster. Especially in June (24°C - 30°C) and July-September (23°C - 29°C) which will still be considered warm elsewhere.

Fortunately, we have enough time to put a mask on every face, and enforce good hygienic practices like washing of hands before entering any market, store, school, church, bank, etc. Enough time to ramp up our testing capabilities massively so we can isolate almost every single person who has the virus, including those who haven't experienced any symptoms of the disease. Meanwhile, our economy can continue to run so that the taxes needed to fund NCDC's aggressive efforts will continue to be paid by profitable businesses and employed workers.
Simple n straight

9 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by GAZZUZZ(m): 10:28am On Apr 04, 2020



When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.



Points are very correct.

Northern states will have very little or no issues with the spread of the virus because surfaces will become sterile in minutes, and the air is dry and hot killing anything that moves in the air.

We should pray for more heat and less rain

53 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by gbadexy(m): 10:29am On Apr 04, 2020
Makes sense.

2 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by searchng4love: 10:34am On Apr 04, 2020
GAZZUZZ:





Points are very correct.

Northern states will have very little or no issues with the spread of the virus because surfaces will become sterile in minutes, and the air is dry and hot killing anything that moves in the air.

We should pray for more heat and less rain
Is this why you relocated to Sokoto

18 Likes 1 Share

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by nickvanilla(m): 10:36am On Apr 04, 2020
Good points Seun.

Most of these corona viruses thrive in cold climates.

Recently, someone wrote an article (which appeared on FP) that about half a million Nigerians died during the Spanish Flu Pandemic. That's a lie.

Check Wikipedia & other sources, in the whole of Africa, there were no more than 450,000 deaths.

History is going to repeat itself. Just watch and see.

6 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by GAZZUZZ(m): 10:36am On Apr 04, 2020
searchng4love:

Is this why you relocated to Sokoto

Very correct, we are doing 38-40deg this morning

16 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by 3RNEST(m): 10:43am On Apr 04, 2020
:
Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by 989900: 10:43am On Apr 04, 2020
kelvine:
Seun has really been active on the Covid 19 trend.
I hope the lockdown is not affecting your business.
Greetings bro.

I guess these are happy traffic times for Seun.

OTOH, the temperature correlation is of course damn right.

At the initial, it was thought the virus would automatically be deactivated at 27°C thereabout, later it was found that they could survive up to 56°C (no inhabited place on earth hardly gets that hot, maybe those Kuwaiti and Pakistani cities and Death Valley, California). . . largely the virus' ability to survive or transmit is temperature dependent.

If the virus would survive for 3 days on metal handles outdoors in Calgary or Manchester in winter, it might not live longer than few hours on same metal handle outdoors in Kano, Algiers, Doha, or Houston in summer . . .factor in humidity too.


The below is from WHO:


Virus survival in stool and urine

Virus is stable in faeces(and urine) at room temperature for at least 1-2 days.
Virus is more stable (up to 4 days) in stool from diarrhea patients (which has higher pH than normal stool).
Disinfectants

Virus loses infectivity after exposure to different commonly used disinfectants and fixatives.
Virus survival in cell-culture supernatant

Only minimal reduction in virus concentration after 21 days at 4°C and -80°C.
Reduction in virus concentration by one log only at stable room temperature for 2 days. This would indicate that the virus is more stable than the known human coronaviruses under these conditions.
Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min (quick reduction).


Assuming the virus is everywhere and in every other person you come across and applying recommend safety precautions is the best practice all day, everyday!

8 Likes

Re: The Coronavirus Seems To Like Cold Weather by chibjohn(m): 10:45am On Apr 04, 2020
GAZZUZZ:





Points are very correct.

Northern states will have very little or no issues with the spread of the virus because surfaces will become sterile in minutes, and the air is dry and hot killing anything that moves in the air.

We should pray for more heat and less rain

You can never be too sure. Viruses behave weirdly. They are in-between living and non living things. When they are attached to living cells, they start acting as a living thing but when attached to non-living surfaces they become inactive for a length of time depending on the virus before dieing off.

So, even professionals haven't fully understood this virus let alone me and you. Let's just follow their instructions and not all these unsubstantiated temperature analysis.

41 Likes 1 Share

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