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Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? - Science/Technology - Nairaland

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Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by SmartyPants(m): 6:29pm On Apr 06, 2020
Hi all.

I believe the true fatality rate of Covid-19 is far higher than the 5% currently being reported, and the reason for this is a basic error in calculation.

Now the current fatality rate, is calculated as the percentage of deaths - X /total infected - Y, at any given point in time.

So:

1. The total number of infected is 1,298,022

2. The total of dead now is 71, 296

3. The total number of recovered is 272,837

4. The total terminated cases = recovered plus deaths = 344, 133

Now the true picture of the fatality should be calculated as the percentage of deaths - 71,296 /total terminated cases - 344,133 at any given point in time.

This figure is 20%. That is, for every 5 people infected, 1 will die.

Now the currently reported figure is 5%, calculated as total deaths (71,296) / total infected as at now (1,298,022).

This gives a figure of 5.5%.

Here is the proof that this is wrong:

If fatality = 5.5% then recovery must equal 94.5%.

Since fatality + recovery = total infections, and

Fatality rate is total deaths/total infected %

Then recovery rate must be total recovery/total infected %. Using the figures above = 272,837/ 1,298,022 = 21%

recovery rate plus death rate must = 100 but 5.5% + 21% does not.

A qualitative explanation for this error is the fact that new infections accrue in a different period of time from deaths and recoveries.
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by Nairalandmonika: 6:59pm On Apr 06, 2020
Am trying to look for sense in your calculations
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by SmartyPants(m): 7:58pm On Apr 06, 2020
Nairalandmonika:
Am trying to look for sense in your calculations

It's not complex. Totally recoveries + total deaths = total cases for any given time period.

The percentage of people who recovered is a percentage of total cases for that time period.

The percentage of people who died is a percentage of total cases for the same time period.

Added together the percentages of those who died and those who recovered must = the total population of infected for that time period.

So the fatality rate for that time period is percentage of deaths/total infected for the same time period.

Recovery rate is percentage of recovered/total deaths for that same time period.

Are you with me?
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by Nairalandmonika: 8:37pm On Apr 06, 2020
SmartyPants:


It's not complex. Totally recoveries + total deaths = total cases for any given time period.

The percentage of people who recovered is a percentage of total cases for that time period.

The percentage of people who died is a percentage of total cases for the same time period.

Added together the percentages of those who died and those who recovered must = the total population of infected for that time period.

So the fatality rate for that time period is percentage of deaths/total infected for the same time period.

Recovery rate is percentage of recovered/total deaths for that same time period.

Are you with me?
U are still not making sense to me.
First of all the covid pandemic is ongoing, your calculation seems to be base on a time period. But everything happening now is ongoing, from infection to recovery to death.

At this point, you consider recovery, death and active cases.

You seems to forget active cases considering only death and recovery.
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by SmartyPants(m): 9:05pm On Apr 06, 2020
Nairalandmonika:

U are still not making sense to me.
First of all the covid pandemic is ongoing, your calculation seems to be base on a time period. But everything happening now is ongoing, from infection to recovery to death.

At this point, you consider recovery, death and active cases.

You seems to forget active cases considering only death and recovery.


Exactly... I am deliberately excluding active cases because they should not be factored in.

So we take a ratio, clearly, 1 person dies for every 4 survivors at present. Do you agree?
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by Nairalandmonika: 9:07pm On Apr 06, 2020
SmartyPants:


Exactly... I am deliberately excluding active cases because they should not be factored in.

Including active cases doesn't provide any information for us. Why are you comparing total deaths from a discrete period in time against total continuous cases? That doesn't tell us anything.

The way to get a clear picture is to compare the rates of the dead against the rates of the survivors.

So we take a ratio, clearly, 1 person dies for every 4 survivors at present. Do you agree?

Ya, but what am saying is that this is ongoing, you can't give a final verdict as these figures may change. And they vary from country to country.
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by SmartyPants(m): 9:09pm On Apr 06, 2020
Nairalandmonika:

Ya, but what am saying is that this is ongoing, you can't give a final verdict as these figures may change. And they vary from country to country.

I'm not suggesting a final verdict... I'm saying that as of today, we are being led to believe that 5 out of every 100 people will die whereas it's been more likely 20 out of a 100 so far...
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by Nairalandmonika: 9:51pm On Apr 06, 2020
SmartyPants:


I'm not suggesting a final verdict... I'm saying that as of today, we are being led to believe that 5 out of every 100 people will die whereas it's been more likely 20 out of a 100 so far...

Ok if u say so, but I believe over the coming weeks the Spain Italy n US will flatten the curve of infection n deaths and you will see more recovery. It's already happening in Spain. South Korea and iran has flatten their curve since.
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by SmartyPants(m): 9:53pm On Apr 06, 2020
Nairalandmonika:


Ok if u say so, but I believe over the coming weeks the Spain Italy n US will flatten the curve of infection n deaths and you will see more recovery. It's already happening in Spain. South Korea and iran has flatten their curve since.

I hope so.

Thanks for taking the time to engage with me. smiley
Re: Are Covid-19 Fatality Rates Completely Under-reported? by yunus22: 6:18pm On May 28, 2023
SmartyPants:


Exactly... I am deliberately excluding active cases because they should not be factored in.

So we take a ratio, clearly, 1 person dies for every 4 survivors at present. Do you agree?

sir

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