Will warm weather and high humidity stop the coronavirus pandemic, or is this a false hope based on comparisons with common viruses like influenza?

While research results haven’t been consistent, a new report from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) suggests that the data is increasingly leaning toward a conclusion — warm weather won’t stop the virus from spreading.


The report, which analyzes a variety of studies, was authored by David A. Relman, MD, a member of the NAS' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, in a “rapid expert consultation letter” to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Evidence in favor of the virus slowing in warm weather comes, in part, from observing seasonal patterns of viruses like influenza that build in intensity during the fall and winter and wane in the spring. Even a few other coronaviruses follow this pattern. But Relman says data suggesting that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, will follow this same pattern is inconclusive at best.


“Some limited data support a potential waning of cases in warmer and more humid seasons, yet none are without major limitations,” he writes in the report.

In fact, some of the places where the virus has already spread are experiencing warm weather right now.

“Given that countries currently in ‘summer’ climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed.”

In addition, two of the most notorious coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, “have not demonstrated any evidence of seasonality following their emergence.”

Drawing a reliable answer from research to-date is challenging because many of the studies were conducted in labs with inconsistent conditions, and others are “natural history studies”—many from China— that don’t line up well with the particulars of this pandemic.


“There are significant caveats in all of the studies presented, mostly related to data quality and the limitation in time and location,” Relman writes. “There are also important confounding factors associated with geography and, hence, with temperature and humidity.”

Even in recent research that suggests higher temperatures and humidity will decrease viral “infectivity,” the rate of infection (known as the average R0 or R naught) “was still close to 2 [each infected person infects two additional people] at maximum temperatures and humidity in their data set, suggesting that the virus will still spread exponentially at higher temperatures and humidity.”

The report adds that relying on research focused on epidemic influenza strains, which are typically seasonal, is also inadequate because “pandemic influenza strains have not exhibited the typical seasonal pattern.” ...

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2020/04/13/why-we-cant-trust-warm-weather-to-stop-coronavirus/#718a62122143

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