Coronavirus cases in Africa could surge from just thousands now to 10 million within three to six months, according to provisional modelling, a regional World Health Organization (WHO) official said.

But Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for WHO Africa, said on Thursday it was a tentative projection that could change. He noted worst-case predictions for the Ebola outbreak had not come true because people changed their behaviour in time.

"This is still to be fine-tuned," he told a media teleconference. "It's difficult to make a long-term estimation because the context changes too much and also public health measures, when they are fully implemented, they can actually have an impact."

Separately, new research said Africa could see 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus even under the best-case scenario, according to modeling by the Imperial College London.

Under the worst-case scenario with no interventions against the virus, Africa could see 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections, the report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa said.


The world's poorest continent has seen more than 17,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and about 900 deaths so far - relatively few compared with other regions.

But there are fears that the numbers could balloon and overwhelm shaky health services.


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"We are concerned that the virus continues to spread geographically, within countries," said Matshidiso Moeti, director of WHO's Africa region, which comprises 46 sub-Saharan nations and Algeria.

"The numbers continue to increase every day."

Other killers
Infections in South Africa, which has the highest number of cases, have slowed after it began a strict lockdown, but other nations - such as Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Algeria - have seen higher than average fatalities.

The WHO is working with authorities there to improve patient care and reduce fatalities, Moeti said.

She warned that President Donald Trump's withdrawal of US funding for the WHO could harm not only the fight against the coronavirus but also that against other killers such as polio, HIV and malaria.

"The impact, potentially, of this decision will be quite significant on areas such as polio eradication" just as Africa was close to being declared polio-free, said Moeti.

Trump accused the Geneva-based WHO on Tuesday of promoting Chinese "disinformation" about the coronavirus, saying this probably worsened the outbreak.

More than two million people have been infected globally, with the largest number in the US.

Washington is the biggest donor to the WHO, which tackles specific diseases and also strengthens national health systems. The US contributed more than $400m to the WHO in 2019, roughly 15 percent of its budget.

"We are very much hoping [suspension of funding] will be re-thought because the US government is an important partner not only in financial terms but also it is an important strategic partner," Moeti said.

She also said the organisation requires $300m to help African governments respond to the pandemic.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/africa-coronavirus-cases-hit-10-million-months-200417055006127.html

Honestly I will Rather the Socalled African LEADERS for all these insult, not UN.

Back to sender!

Why are these people predicting doom for Africa?? Na we I dey blame if we have utilized our resources very well all these prophet of doom won't have anything to say. God please don't mind us and our leaders have mercy on us

Useless white pigs. By the time these whitepigs are talking about, over one one billion useless white racists would have died in Europe, America, Australia and Asia. They are already dying in their thousands in Europe, America, Australia and Asia. They shall all die and we the foreigners in their land will occupy their land, so says JEHOVAH

Deuteronomy 28:43
The foreigners who reside among you will rise above you higher and higher, but you will sink lower and lower. - NIV

If this will bring sanity to Africans and their leaders let it come... For all that's happening in this country and Africa at large, what's trending is always sex in South Africa. While Nigerians are the stupidest #IAM North, #Yoruba Muslim, #Bello, #gbosa, #Funke #Wizkid #mercyeke. Meanwhile security operatives kill 18 people to enforce lockdown, while COVID19 kills 13. Bunch of SAD tribalistic cowards online warriors

Tufiakwa....Chukwu agaghi ekwe

It won't get to that point

Bill Gates scaremongering....

[img]https://media./images/de94549e59d70ee0807c2fbbea9800ab/tenor.gif[/img]

The world have always seen Africa as a dumping site where they dump all sorts of rubbish and use her people as lab rat. There is a big gang up against Africa but time will tell

Why are they not praising Africa with over a billion people yet covid-19 is not causing problems yet?

Taah! Kpuchikwe unu gi there.

buJu234:
Why are they not praising Africa with over a billion people yet covid-19 is not causing problems yet?

They are mad ni. Enemies of progress. Useless whitepigs. Ogun, Sango, Obatala, Osun and Amadioha kill all of them.

Sorry, I don't trust WHO

WHO has goofed this time around.

If not for poor infrastructure African doctors are better than those socall onyibo doctors.

God is our strength, no evil shall my father's land

Oyibo wishing us death everyday

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Under the worst-case scenario with no interventions against the virus, Africa could see 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections, the report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa said.

Africa's population is estimated 1.2 billion. That forecast would mean nearly every person on the continent getting infected.

These models are nonsense sometimes. The guys at Imperial College did similar modeling and projected 2 million deaths in the US and 500k deaths in the UK. After scaring everyone into "mass house arrest" they have now reviewed the US figures to under 80k and the UK figures to around 20k.

sapientia:
Sorry, I don't trust WHO

What don't you understand about "preliminary investigation"?

BTW, the figures are unrealistic but it has nothing to do with your screenshot.

Bevista:
Africa's population is estimated 1.2 billion. That forecast would mean nearly every person on the continent getting infected.

These models are nonsense sometimes. The guys at Imperial College did similar modeling and projected 2 million deaths in the US and 500k deaths in the UK. After scaring everyone into "mass house arrest" they have now reviewed the US figures to under 80k and the UK figures to around 20k.

That is how modeling works.
They are not facts but projections based on sketchy information.
Even those making them don't really believe the figures.

BTW, if they didn't scare anyone, I am sure a lot of people will accuse them
of being incompetent if a higher figure is realised like the WHO is being hounded.

Misleading headline.
The body clearly states that the figures are unrealistic.

Never, return to sender

These fuckers will not live to us die.

WHO is not happy that Africa has low mortality rate. They should kuku bring a jet tank instead to rain upon us if their expected figure fail.

Nawao

Na dem dey die yet dem dey prophesy say na we go die pass, back to sender oooo mad people