I've been meaning to share some of the analysis from the data we've gathered so far. As a rule of thumb, we periodically monitor food consumption patterns, production patterns, and direct to market (commodity flow) patterns in Nigeria.

Our predictions about food consumption before the lockdown was effected, has been surpassed, and I don't mean to sound gloomy, but it doesn't look good from here. We have a looming food crisis.

We're about to enter the May-July dry spell period where tomatoes/pepper becomes scarce in the market (tomatoes and pepper generally do not do well in the presence of plenty water).

The already fragmented supply chain in Nigeria, has been made worse by lockdown. Ramadan is going to worsen the matter. Kano is been touted to become the next epicenter of COVID on Nigeria, with their recent spike (arithmetic increase) in the numbers of persons who've tested +ive for Covid-19. Kano/Kaduna/Jos produces about 75% of Nigeria's fresh fruits and vegetables, Katsina, Benue, Kebbi/Sokoto, all compete for the remaining 25%. Since the lockdown is enforced in Kano, we're not just going to see a shortfall of supply in fruits & veggies, but Staples too. Kano controls most of the grains in the market - rice, beans, wheat, millet, maize, etc. Like I said earlier, it doesn't look good.

Yes, food producers have been added as essential service providers, but the security personnels on Nigerian roads don't know this, and are making a killing from the money obtained from the truckers moving these commodities.

The food you're seeing in the market now, is a product of last year's Q4 and this year's Q1 harvest. Production of food has alrey slowed since March. We're already missing out on the production circle of Q2, which is supposed to take care of us in Q3 & extend to Q4. That said, the forecast is that tomato/pepper cost will increase by 95% - 180% over the next 10 weeks at least, if nothing changes in the current trend. This increase in price is not restricted to tomato and pepper alone; all fresh fruits & vegetables that is grown & imported from Northern Nigeria, will from next week, see a significant increase (at least, 30%), in price, as fewer of this commodity will hit the market now, as the Muslim fast - Ramadan, usually being with it, a certain level of disruption in food harvest & distribution in Nigeria.

To drive the matter home, let me explain how this' going to affect your finances. As more job losses and salary cuts are anounced across board, personal budgets for food will change. It means that, if you usually budget N20,000 for feeding per month (to stock up on foodstuff), that amount, in the next 3 months at least, will not get you the amount of foodstuff it used to. You'll pay more to get lesser foodstuff than that (although, certain food prices will not change much).

Poultry farmers are currently having their worst time in the market. The day old chics that's supposed to grow into the big chicken you buy in the market, can't get their micro nutrients and vaccines, which is usually imported; and because of the logistic conundrum we're facing now, poultry farmers can't get the feeds they need on time. So, we're poised to see another drop in the amount of chicken meat available for consumption in the following weeks.

Also, certain processed foods will be disappearing from our supermarket shelves, until the world really flattens the curve, and countries now open their borders to ship foods.

What can you do?

I know it's hard right now, and people are struggling to stay afloat and survive; but if you can, stock up on vegetables, freeze them, and use them when the occasion calls for it. You can buy tomatoes and pepper in large quantities, blend them into puree, and freeze them.

You can also do some little gardening on your own. Before you raise your hands in protest, please Google "Aeroponics." You can make use of the wall in your backyard and plant enough tomatoes, bell peppers, and even spices. Google & YouTube can help you set it up perfectly, you don't need a special skill set for this.

I've said enough, and this piece is more lengthy than I initially intended. I'm sorry for the long read, but I just thought you might want to know what lays in the horizon.

Thank you for reading!

Arua Samuel
(Head of Operations, Slate Farms).

Hmmm...another battle on the way.

Thank you for the information dear.

Thanks for the valuable information.

neutralmind:
Thanks for the valuable information.

You welcome.

This is an eye opener! Op thanks for this information.

SafariBoy:
This is an eye opener! Op thanks for this information.

You welcome.

those things u wrote are predictions which are not fixed but the right measure are taken

Keep in mind that most of Nigeria food... Tomatoes for example are source outside Nigeria.

But there is a lot of truth in what we said.... Most silos round the country are empty...

Remember billion of naira were spent to buy these things for palitivies.

And it takes months to cultivate and harvest to fill these silos

Well na southern part of Nigeria always feel the heat of food scarcity.

But it's good news for farmers... They have indeed made a lot of money this period.

wamiikechukwu:
Keep in mind that most of Nigeria food... Tomatoes for example are source outside Nigeria.

But there is a lot of truth in what we said.... Most silos round the country are empty...

Remember billion of naira were spent to buy these things for palitivies.

And it takes months to cultivate and harvest to fill these silos

Well na southern part of Nigeria always feel the heat of food scarcity.

But it's good news for farmers... They have indeed made a lot of money this period.

Yeah

It is happening already