I once dismissed the thought of a Ribadu/Ngige ticket as a non-starter, but today I decided to REALLY think about it.

I know that GEJ is currently sitting pretty on SE votes; however, knowing how politically savvy Ngige is, I don't know if I'm ready to bet against him. Yet.

Dr Chris Ngige is what I call a grounded, witty and dogged politician.

If Ngige joins this ticket, the battle will harden a little for GEJ, because suddenly, GEJ will start fighting for votes in SE, SW, and parts of NC. Suddenly this election could wake up to all kinds of possibilities.  Depending on how much votes Ribadu can garner in the far north, anything then becomes possible.

The scenario is almost too ideal to materialize though because it will mean that ACN is uniting SE and SW politically for the first time in ages.

Why Ngige? Why not Iwela

WOW . . . Is the @Poster now no longer supporting PDP ? What do you care who Ribadu pairs himself up with?

[size=16pt]Intrigues stall Ribadu’s choice of running mate[/size]

By JIDE AJANI & EMMANUEL AZIKEN

LAGOS — INTERESTS and intrigues among party chieftains are stalling the final choice of a vice-presidential candidate for the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN ahead of the commencement of electioneering campaigns on Wednesday.

The party’s presidential candidate and erstwhile anti-graft czar, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, it was learnt, is rooting for former Governor of Anambra State, Dr. Chris Ngige, and former Senate President, Ken Nnamani in a descending order.

However, party elders from the Southwest and notably a former Governor believed to be a financier of the party, are pushing the Lagos State Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Mr. Ben Akabueze.

Akabueze, from Imo State, served in the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu administration as Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget and was retained in the same portfolio by Tinubu’s successor, Babatunde Fashola. Vanguard learnt that Ribadu has tabled his choice as Ngige but the party elders are not satisfied and are canvassing Akabueze.

Ngige’s choice
Ribadu’s choice of Ngige was believed to be based on electoral acceptability and the democratic credentials he presented when he served as Governor of Anambra State between 2003 and 2005. Ngige was also chairman of the party’s National Convention Committee.

Vanguard learnt that at a meeting of Thursday, February 10, held at the ACN National Campaign Headquarters late in the evening, about 10 members of the party were present and the issue was on how to resolve what was described as the “emerging face off between Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu over the choice of presidential running mate for the party”.

Vanguard gathered that among those present at the meeting were Chief Bisi Akande, National Chairman, Senator Lawal Shuaibu, National Secretary, Dr. Usman Bugaje, Uche Onyeagocha, Chido Onuma and Lukman Salihu.

A source told Vanguard that whereas Ribadu is insisting on choosing his own running mate, Tinubu declaring that it was for him to determine who runs with Ribadu.

Whereas, the source continued, Ribadu wants a professional as his running mate from the South East geo-political zone, Tinubu is of the view that “two professionals may not be in a position to effectively mobilize against the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

“Tinubu’s position is clear and it is obvious that even Ribadu himself is a professional and, therefore, pitching him with another professional would not be in the electoral interest of the party.”

Dropping of Okonjo-Iweala
Vanguard was reliably informed that, three days earlier, February 7, 2011, the meeting of the leadership of the party had disagreed and eventually dropped the name of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as running mate, a choice ostensibly put forward by Ribadu

At the February 10 meeting, Chief Akande reportedly told the gathering that “Ribadu should be advised on the implications of having problems with Tinubu” because the latter did everything possible to ensure that Ribadu emerged as the ACN presidential candidate.

In fact, one of those present at the meeting said the “matter was being compounded by comments of those pitching their tent with both Ribadu and Tinubu and, there, advised that comments to be made must be weighed thoroughly so as not to further create more confusion.”

The meeting acknowledged that the party was wasting precious time, while one of those in attendance noted that “the President is already traversing the entire country on campaign tour while we are here talking about the issue of running mate”.

One of those in attendance warned of the dangers of not “getting it right this time around because this is our last chance and if we fail, may be we should all go and join the PDP and accept that the PDP has conquered all of us”.

The ACN had in the interim slated one Stanley Ogochukwu as the presidential running mate. Ogochukwu choice, Vanguard learnt, followed disagreements over the definitive choice of a running mate. Normally reliable party sources told Vanguard, yesterday, that the substitution was going to be made within the next few days.

A top party choice told Vanguard: “I can confidently tell you that it is between Ngige and Ken Nnamani,” though other party sources cited the emergence of Akabueze as a potential surprise. Akabueze, a former top banker has been hailed for bringing professional expertise to the management of budget and economic planning in Lagos.

The party which is flagging off its presidential campaigns, Wednesday, has until next Monday, February 21 to alter its presidential ticket. It could not be confirmed, yesterday, whether the alterations would be made ahead of the commencement of the presidential campaign beginning with the colloquium in Abuja. The party is also expected to unveil its manifesto on that day.

Colloquium
The ACN in a statement issued by its National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said the decision to flag off the campaign with a colloquium, instead of the usual jamboree, was an indication that the party would make its campaign issues-based and ensure that all hands are on deck for the rapid transformation of Nigeria, once it is voted into power at the centre.

Mohammed said the colloquium would make it possible for Nigerians from all walks of life to make their inputs into the party manifesto and agenda, adding: “This manifesto and agenda encompass our contract with Nigerians. Therefore we intend to use the colloquium not only to present our programme to make Nigeria a proud member of the comity of nations, but also to ensure that Nigerians own the programme.”

Explaining the format, ACN spokesman said Chief Audu Ogbe will flag off the session with a brief overview of the party’s manifesto, after which speakers would take on each topic to provoke a debate – through discussions – that will at the end enrich the issues.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/02/intrigues-stall-ribadu%E2%80%99s-choice-of-running-mate/

I actually think the combination would make it a lil easier for Buhari to win. The ACN isnt that supporting RIbaduas they should.
I actually think Ribadu wont carry SW at all.


A Ribadu/Ngige ticket would split the vote from the south in almost three ways of equal proportion thus: Most of the SE, around 35%, going to APGA, and the rest would be shared among ACN, CPC and PDP, with PDP having a slightly larger percentage than the other two; SS, around 60%, going to the PDP, the rest would be shared by ACN and CPC, the SW, around 50%, going to the ACN  with the rest equally shared bewtween CPC and PDP, with CPC doing slightly better than the PDP because of the Bakare factor,

So with the arrangement above, the battle shifts to the North with the NW being the most organised and the most important, it remains to be seen how GEJ and Ribadu would do better than Buhari in that all important  zone/region.

Posted by: Kobojunkie

WOW . .  . Is the @Poster now no longer supporting PDP ? What do you care who Ribadu pairs himself up with?

I was not supporting PDP, I am supporting GEJ. If you read my post you would see that I was being apprehensive of the development. But WTH, I want the best for Nigeria.  

People are disregarding the fact that in nigeria, democracy is by selection and not by election. ACN stands no chance.

Power of incumbency

GEJ doesn't have to win by fairplay,,,,,,,,,,,,afterall, presidential election is hardly fair in nigeria.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: Kobojunkie
I was not supporting PDP, I am supporting GEJ. If you read my post you would see that I was being apprehensive of the development. But WTH, I want the best for Nigeria.  

Yes,and you were also born yesterday!! I am sorry, even children know that Nigeria is not at the point where you can support a candidate without it being interpreted as support for the party which the candidate belongs to.

Even from back during Military days, it is clear that the president does not walk alone. You get him and every other person in his private cabinet, so I don't see how handing power back to the same group that has managed to run it into the ground over the last 12 years spells Change.

fstranger3:

I actually think the combination would make it a lil easier for Buhari to win. The ACN isnt that supporting RIbaduas they should.
I actually think Ribadu wont carry SW at all.


A Ribadu/Ngige ticket would split the vote from the south in almost three ways of equal proportion thus: Most of the SE, around 35%, going to APGA, and the rest would be shared among ACN, CPC and PDP, with PDP having a slightly larger percentage than the other two; SS, around 60%, going to the PDP, the rest would be shared by ACN and CPC, the SW, around 50%, going to the ACN  with the rest equally shared bewtween CPC and PDP, with CPC doing slightly better than the PDP because of the Bakare factor, 

So with the arrangement above, the battle shifts to the North with the NW being the most organised and the most important, it remains to be seen how GEJ and Ribadu would do better than Buhari in that all important  zone/region.

Interesting analysis. APGA is supporting Goodluck, though. Sort of agree that Ribadu isn't going to be very interesting to the SW voter.

You've seen the voter registration #s by region, btw?

eku_bear:


You've seen the voter registration #s by region, btw?

No still looking for it!

From the Goodluck/PHC thread:

Wadeoye:

INEC Voters Registration figures.

- South South = 7million
- South East   = 7million
- South West  = 18 million
- North West  = 18 million
- North Central = 8million
- North East = 8million

50%+ of the votes in the NW and SW, at least as reported by GEJ's appointed man, Jega.

Buhari is not completely down and out. Though imo he win if he'd pulled off the alliance with the ACN.

eku_bear:

From the Goodluck/PHC thread:

50%+ of the votes in the NW and SW, at least as reported by GEJ's appointed man, Jega.

Buhari is not completely down and out. Though imo he win if he'd pulled off the alliance with the ACN.

I  dont believe that crap
The official figure is 70 milla, and the one you posted came up to 66

Moreover, I dont think the SW has as much registered voters as the NW, at  least not officially. And ascribing a larger proportion of registered voters to the NC over the SE is just ludicrous.

I doubt the authenticity of the numbers you posted.

^-- Agreed, it doesn't make sense at all. I'd rank it much differently if I had to guess the true population of each region. However, I googled and found something somewhere similar (not on an official website though!) If you have other data, please reference it.

Yeah, this is what I came across that had similar #s:

http://elombah.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5281:2011-the-igbo-have-opportunity&catid=47:politics&Itemid=65

But then I couldn't find it on the inec website.

Sort of important to know what #s Jega actually measured (cooked up?) for each region before you plan strategically.

^^^^

Very interesting analysis, bit not sure how they came up with the college enrollment numbers.

That said, I dont think INEC will publish the numbers before the verification exercise. So not sure where they got the numbers from, and how come it is not on SR, 234Next or pointblank?

^-- Tribute: http://www.tribune.com.ng/sun/index.php/front-page-articles/3178-north-west-south-west-key-zones-in-jonathanbuhari-presidential-battle

BTW, I guess SW is listed at 15 mil. Person whose post I quoted mistyped? Or maybe I made an error when quoting.

Anyways, would be nice to see something more official. A bit funny how implausible the #s seem tho

@ OnlyTruth, remember I told you you'd be shocked that the North is actually populous as they claim.
Can you see the numbers?

So your premise has been defeated. Agreed?

Posted by: Obiagu1

@ OnlyTruth, remember I told you you'd be shocked that the North is actually populous as they claim.
Can you see the numbers?

So your premise has been defeated. Agreed?

mba o! I no gree at all.

Firstly, the numbers are not from current registration of voters.

Secondly, the numbers, to quote the inimitable Chuba Okadigbo "is like the bikini; what it reveals is interesting, but it is what it does not reveal that is intriguing".

In my own words, even when they release the figures, don't just look at geopolitical zones. Look at "patterns".

For instance, we know that SW has Lagos which contributes about half of the total population from that zone, and Lagos has large numbers of Igbos. Same applies to Kano in the NW and other zones.

So Igbo numbers are masked in these figures.

When we conduct census identifying citizens by tribe, the picture will become clear.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: Obiagu1
mba o! I no gree at all.

Firstly, the numbers are not from current registration of voters.

Secondly, the numbers, to quote the inimitable Chuba Okadigbo "is like the bikini; what it reveals is interesting, but it is what it does not reveal that is intriguing".

In my own words, even when they release the figures, don't just look at geopolitical zones. Look at "patterns".

For instance, we know that SW has Lagos which contributes about half of the total population from that zone, and Lagos has large numbers of Igbos. Same applies to Kano in the NW and other zones.

So Igbo numbers are masked in these figures.

When we conduct census identifying citizens by tribe, the picture will become clear.

Ist of all, the result is from the current registration exercise.

2ndly, not talking about Igbos now, but the fact that NW has as much as 18 millions tells you that Hausa/Fulani are many. Take away underage registrants, illegalities, etc and you'll still get at least 10 millions of qualified voters.

If you want to talk about Igbos, we have 7 millions already in the SE in which we constitute over 98%. Add those Igbos from SS, SW, etc, you'll see that NW will give you a good run for your money.
The fact is, going back to our previous argument, the population of the North is much with or without errors.

Posted by: Obiagu1

Ist of all, the result is from the current registration exercise.

2ndly, not talking about Igbos now, but the fact that NW has as much as 18 millions tells you that Hausa/Fulani are many. Take away underage registrants, illegalities, etc and you'll still get at least 10 millions of qualified voters.

If you want to talk about Igbos, we have 7 millions already in the SE in which we constitute over 98%. Add those Igbos from SS, SW, etc, you'll see that NW will give you a good run for your money.
The fact is, going back to our previous argument, the population of the North is much with or without errors.

I don't think I ever said the North is not big. What I said was that it may not be as big as we've been told for ages.

But let me ask you; do you believe that SW including Lagos is only 15 million voters? Frankly?   Me, I don't. 

I don't know how NW can be bigger than SW including Lagos.

These numbers will be questioned.

My theory about possible big Igbo population still stands.

I wouldn't take these #s as gospel truth. Perhaps both GEJ and Jega are constrained in what #s they can use officially.

I'd be pretty surprised if the NW were the most populous zone. As the elombah.com article indicates, certain things don't add up.

My own guess is something like:

SW
SS
SE
NW
NC
NE

Something like that might be a reasonable guess. . . modulo the possibility that NC > NW, or SE > SS.

Anyway, the more immediately relevant point is that these #s determine how one should strategize electorally.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: Obiagu1
I don't think I ever said the North is not big. What I said was that it may not be as big as we've been told for ages.

But let me ask you; do you believe that SW including Lagos is only 15 million voters? Frankly?  Me, I don't.  

I don't know how NW can be bigger than SW including Lagos.

These numbers will be questioned.

My theory about possible big Igbo population still stands.

I've lived in Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kaduna etc and I'll tell you that they are many especially Kano.
When I heard that Lagos State government was claiming that Lagos was 17 million, I said it was a lie because Lagos is a city state and a 17 million population will resemble New York City but that's not the case, New York is congested.

The SW 15 million eligible voters is close to accurate because SE gave 7 million from 5 states while, if SW 5 states produce 7 or 8 million, the rest came from Lagos.
The problem now is NW which is dubious because of obvious underage registrants but the true figure won't be less then 14 million which is still much.


As for your previous argument, I put a hyperlink in my previous post, reread it. You actually said that maybe the South is more than the North which has turned out to be false, thus your argument failed like I promised you it would  

Posted by: eku_bear

I wouldn't take these #s as gospel truth. Perhaps both GEJ and Jega are constrained in what #s they can use officially.

I'd be pretty surprised if the NW were the most populous zone.

May not be far from the truth. If you want to rule Nigeria with northern support, there are things you must not touch:

(1) Population figures passed down by past leaders
(2) Revenue sharing formula
(3)Geopolitical advantages given to a section of the country via the constitution by past leaders.

If you abide by these things, all other things are negotiable.  

eku_bear:

I wouldn't take these #s as gospel truth. Perhaps both GEJ and Jega are constrained in what #s they can use officially.

I'd be pretty surprised if the NW were the most populous zone. As the elombah.com article indicates, certain things don't add up.

My own guess is something like:

SW
SS
SE
NW
NC
NE

Something like that might be a reasonable guess. . . modulo the possibility that NC > NW, or SE > SS.

Anyway, the more immediately relevant point is that these #s determine how one should strategize electorally.

I quite disagree.
The order is:
NW>SW>SS>NC>NE>SE.

Kano is as populous as Lagos, remember Lagos is a city state whereas Kano has several cities/towns.
Every muslem, Nigerians and non-Nigerians, troop to Kano like Southerners troop to Lagos.

Posted by: Obiagu1

I've lived in Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kaduna etc and I'll tell you that they are many especially Kano.
When I heard that Lagos State government was claiming that Lagos was 17 million, I said it was a lie because Lagos is a city state and a 17 million population will resemble New York City but that's not the case, New York is congested.

The SW 15 million eligible voters is close to accurate because SE gave 7 million from 5 states while, if SW 5 states produce 7 or 8 million, the rest came from Lagos.
The problem now is NW which is dubious because of obvious underage registrants but the true figure won't be less then 14 million which is still much.


As for your previous argument, I put a hyperlink in my previous post, reread it. You actually said that maybe the South is more than the North which has turned out to be false, thus your argument failed like I promised you it will

Believe me I stand by my claim, but I am not INEC abi?

So, assuming I'm wrong, do you believe in your heart that GEJ believes these figures and hopes to win with them? Or do you think he hopes to win a "free and fair" elections with these numbers?

When you answer these questions, you will meet the truth.

Obiagu1:

I quite disagree.
The order is:
NW>SW>SS>NC>NE>SE.

Kano is as populous as Lagos, remember Lagos is a city state whereas Kano has several cities/towns.
Every muslem, Nigerians and non-Nigerians troop to Kano like Southerners troop to Lagos.

I trust the demographers at the World Bank and all these international organizations more than I trust the Nigerian FGs #s. The former says that Lagos is already the second largest metropolitan area in all of Africa, and will soon surpass Cairo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_in_Africa_by_population

Kano is more comparable to Ibadan in population than it is to Lagos.

Onlytruth:

Posted by: Obiagu1


Believe me I stand by my claim, but I am not INEC abi?

So, assuming I'm wrong, do you believe in your heart that GEJ believes these figures and hopes to win with them? Or do you think he hopes to win a "free and fair" elections with these numbers?

When you answer this question, you will meet the truth.

Like I told you before, GEJ just wanted to try, he's there already. With those figures, depending on his support in the SW, he might still win if his support in the NC is average.

If the North has just one candidate, the that candidate will definitely win. This is why I was shouting about rotational presidency and you doubted me believing the South is more.

eku_bear:

I trust the demographers at the World Bank and all these international organizations more than I trust the Nigerian FGs #s. The former says that Lagos is already the second largest metropolitan area in all of Africa, and will soon surpass Cairo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_in_Africa_by_population

Kano is more comparable to Ibadan in population than it is to Lagos.

But these figures tell you otherwise. The figure those organisations gave was false, absolutely false. They were just estimating when we have no reliable data to actually make a good and reasonable estimate.

Since I've followed elections in Nigeria, Kano state figures always cancel out Lagos own.
When you talk about Kano, it's huge with many towns.

If there were a single city in the North comparable in population to Lagos. . . we would FEEL it economically. Lagos is sucking away population not only from the rest of Nigeria, but from all over West Africa.

Do we hear about the same happening in Kano?

Do we hear about the high prices of food, booming property prices in Kano?

So you are telling me that all of these multinational organizations are ignoring some huge city in Northern Nigeria, a potential business goldmine for them to sell products to?

They've decided to ignore the 2nd or 3rd largest city in all of Africa? 

Seems a bit implausible, no?

Posted by: Obiagu1

Like I told you before, GEJ just wanted to try, he's there already. With those figures, depending on his support in the SW, he might still win if his support in the NC is average.

If the North has just one candidate, the that candidate will definitely win. This is why I was shouting about rotational presidency and you doubted me believing the South is more.

All I said was the maybe the GEJ government knows what the rest of us don't know about Nigerian demographics, and I stand by that.
Look, Nigeria politics is too complex to be narrowed down to zoning and rotational presidency.
Okay what happened to the PDP zoning arrangement? Are they abiding by it?

. . . I'll be back.  

eku_bear:

If there were a single city in the North comparable in population to Lagos. . . we would FEEL it economically. Lagos is sucking away population not only from the rest of Nigeria, but from all over West Africa.

Do we hear about the same happening in Kano?

Do we hear about the high prices of food, booming property prices in Kano?

So you are telling me that all of these multinational organizations are ignoring some huge city in Northern Nigeria, a potential business goldmine for them to sell products to?

They've decided to ignore the 2nd or 3rd largest city in all of Africa?

Seems a bit implausible, no?

Lagos is a city state, if we have mayors in Nigeria, definitely Fashola will be mayor of Lagos and not governor of Lagos, whereas Kano has several cities and towns, not just the city of Kano.