As the elections month dawns on Nigeria, Buhari is continuously gaining more momentum both in sizes of crowds and also in the minds of would be voters. For the first time, many Nigerians are thinking may be PDP's 12 year rule may come to an end or at least a break in this election,
Even the hardcore PDP people I know are starting to admit Buhari really stands a chance this time,

This is not a thread to support any political views, but rather, to share the trends you have seen on the ground in your area as the elections come closer, Is any state or other Government you know looking more vulnerable to the opposition?

Change is here - Nigerians this is our chance to get it right - Vote Buhari 2011.

buhari all the way.

My 2 cents is this.  For Buhari to win the election, he needs to win the popular vote.   He will not have the 25% in 24 states but he needs to win the popular vote.  If he can do that, he will demystify the PDP to the point where he can give them a knock out punch in 7 days time when a runoff happens.  It will be similar to the way Obama demystified the Clintons in Iowa.  Please tell your friends and family in the South that should still vote for Buhari even though he may not win any Southern state.  Every vote is needed to free our country from the vipers called the PDP. If Jonathan wins the popular vote but does not meet the 25% threshold, what will happen is that people may feel that Jonathan simply needs to confirm his victory in 7 days. That will be a tougher battle.

Buhari's failure would lie in his reluctance to campaign vigorously in the South!! All the money he spent campaigning in the core North where he is 100% sure of a majority, would have been wiser spent in the south west!! This would be his undoing! In the south west it is a three way race with Buhari by far being the under dog! If he can't pull up to 25% of south west vote, which is sooo unlikely, then there is no way he would win a majority!

True, his popularity is rising but it is coming too late!! Momentum needs time to build in order to penetrate the nooks and crannies of the ghettos and shanties, small towns and villages. The opposition lost this one for failing to unite!

@danjohn good analysis, just what I had in mind when I started the thread, Let's see the numbers

@OP
Momentum is all he is going to get. Not the presidency.

PapaBrowne:

Buhari's failure would lie in his reluctance to campaign vigorously in the South!! All the money he spent campaigning in the core North where he is 100% sure of a majority, would have been wiser spent in the south west!! This would be his undoing!  In the south west it is a three way race with Buhari by far being the under dog! If he can't pull up to 25% of south west vote, which is sooo unlikely, then there is no way he would win a majority!

True, his popularity is rising but it is coming too late!! Momentum needs time to build in order to penetrate the nooks and crannies of the ghettos and shanties, small towns and villages. The opposition lost this one for failing to unite!

I do not agree with you when you say that Buhari should have abandoned the North.  He needed to fire up his base.  However, he has not penetrated the South West the way he needs to to have a significant impact.  Ribadu has done a better job in penetrating the SW.  In a weird way Buhari needs Ribadu in this election.  He needs Ribadu to have a commanding victory in the SW and he needs Ribadu to make the NC a three way race.  The votes Ribadu gets in the SW and NC are still votes that Jonathan did not get.  Thus it helps Buhari.

@papabrowne on point. You should be an analyst man

I get your point, But still, Ribadu is more of a spoiler for Buhari than he is for GEJ, I'm sure GEJ is happy to have ribadu in the race

people don't understand the motivating factor behind most nigerians. those who are saying that time is too late aren't clear on the voting behavior of people here. 70% of nigerians are going to vote for who they are told to vote for. in politics 24 hours is a long time but a week, that's a lifetime.

just wait until acn cpc alliance next week. no shakin guys.  

AfricaMars:

I get your point,  But still, Ribadu is more of a spoiler for Buhari than he is for GEJ,  I'm sure GEJ is happy to have ribadu in the race

Not necessarily.  In the South many people who hate PDP fear Buhari because of the perception that he is an islamic extremist.  As a result they support Ribadu.  The same is the case in the NC.  Ribadu comes off as a Northerner that Southerners can work with because the perception of Buhari is that he is too extreme.  Buhari supporters are either Northern conservative Muslims or die hard progressives in the South.  Also many voters do not associate Jonathan with the corruption of the PDP.  They see him as a humble Ijaw chief whose destiny by virtue of his names (Goodluck) has led him to the Presidency. 

I understand that Ribadu could be a spoiler for Buhari.  but not in this circumstance.  Buhari's campaign at its current state does not stand much of a chance in the SW.  His campaign does not have the resources to capture enough votes.  Since Buhari does not have the resources to capture enough votes in the SW, ACN is capturing votes that could have gone to Jonathan.

Thanks for the insight, danjohn. I like your Iowa analogy too. . . I think it is pretty apt.

April 2nd elections might be another Iowa too.

danjohn:

Not necessarily.  In the South many people who hate PDP fear Buhari because of the perception that he is an islamic extremist.  As a result they support Ribadu.  The same is the case in the NC.  Ribadu comes off as a Northerner that Southerners can work with because the perception of Buhari is that he is too extreme.  Buhari supporters are either Northern conservative Muslims or die hard progressives in the South.  Also many voters do not associate Jonathan with the corruption of the PDP.  They see him as a humble Ijaw chief whose destiny by virtue of his names (Goodluck) has led him to the Presidency. 

I understand that Ribadu could be a spoiler for Buhari.  but not in this circumstance.  Buhari's campaign at its current state does not stand much of a chance in the SW.  His campaign does not have the resources to capture enough votes.  Since Buhari does not have the resources to capture enough votes in the SW, ACN is capturing votes that could have gone to Jonathan.

Looking at the cup half full rather than half empty!!I like it. Optimism is good when there is time to build, but realism is what we must face come April 9th. Ribadu would have benefitted Buhari in the south west only if Jonathan was an unpopular president. The man is more popular in the south west than Ribadu. His only negative is the PDP. And just as you mentioned, he isn't exactly associated with the PDP and the masses are more likely to vote candidates rather than vote parties.

the CAN and CPC merging will surely change the election outcome, Do we all agree?

timbuk two:

people don't understand the motivating factor behind most nigerians. those who are saying that time is too late aren't clear on the voting behavior of people here. 70% of nigerians are going to vote for who they are told to vote for. in politics 24 hours is a long time but a week, that's a lifetime.

just wait until acn cpc alliance next week. no shakin guys.  

Your post here by far favours the PDP. PDP controls the leaders that control the people. It is only in the Core North where the mosque is the channel point that PDP has its weaknesses based on your analysis! Everyone from the Village Chief to the Student union president to the Market women leaders to the Motor park touts Association(NURTW) are all on the PDP payroll. Its only in Lagos and some parts of the south west that ACN has control of these group!! So rethink your postulation.

AfricaMars:

the CAN and CPC merging will surely change the election outcome, Do we all agree?

The timing is critical. If such an alliance came in 3 weeks before the election, there would be considerable impact on the elections. But the timing is late!!
IOWA happened much more than 1 year before the elections and 6 months before the final primaries!!!

PapaBrowne:

Your post here by far favours the PDP. PDP controls the leaders that control the people. It is only in the Core North where the mosque is the channel point that PDP has its weaknesses based on your analysis! Everyone from the Village Chief to the Student union president to the Market women leaders to the Motor park touts Association(NURTW) are all on the PDP payroll. Its only in Lagos and some parts of the south west that ACN has control of these group!! So rethink your postulation.

exactly. you are talking about the two most populous regions in the country. i say this time and time again the PDP is now a regional party. it is entirely feasible for a candidate to win this election without winning a single vote from the south south and south east (and that won't happen as the ACN and buhari have many supporters in both regions). but my point is this: the PDP only remains dominant in two regions. and two small regions at that.

Sai Buhari

If we can remember, in 1999 and 2007 (I don't know what happened 2003, rigged or not rigged) a lot of Nothern votes went to PDP and brought OBJ and late Yaradua to power respectively, Now it seems PDP will get a very small fraction of such votes. So how much impact will this have on the final election results?

We've just about 9 days to the D-day. The BB momentum will keep rising. I hope GEJ has contacted prime movers to come help him get his baggage out of Aso Rock and back to Otueke!

There is nothing like the perfect candidate, the issue is what we need as a Nation right now. We need to be united in the first place in order to develop Nigeria. Then we need to make the best use of our resources to improve the living standards of the people of our Nation.

I think the solution is fighting corruption and wastage of government funds and of course buhari is known for that. Buhari still has his own issues and he likes some total control even though that would not be impossibe in democracy, So should we compromise and go with development? Meaning, people be a little less free and undisciplined in his rule. As an average man, I prefer to go with that! But the rich wouldn't want that. They want to do whatever and go free.

timbuk two:

it is entirely feasible for a candidate to win this election without winning a single vote from the south south and south east

This is an example of why I consider most Buhari supporters as ignorant dreamers. The constitution says that for you to win the election you must have at least 25% of the total votes in at least 24 states + FCT. The SS and SE are 11 states (leaving 25 states). So how can the Buhari campaign win the election with zero votes from the SS and SE? This deluded thinking is what informed the decision of the Buhari campaign to ignore these regions (a massive failure in strategic thinking). For example in the USA, I know that the Republican and Democratic parties usually target each others stronghold.

In observing the events of this campaign, I realized that only the PDP ran a modern campaign. They have deliberately targeted votes in the opposition strongholds, and this will see them securing at least a quarter of votes in a lot of this states.

timbuk two:

just wait until acn cpc alliance next week. no shakin guys.  

Dream on. Not going to happen. Will Buhari step down for Ribadu? I think you and I know the answer to that.

tricky system, but effective way to choose a leader in a multi-tribal country

all the sai buhari that alwaysnd is it out of he is the right option or due to the fact that he is a better option?


My colleagues in the office say he is a better option but not the best.


and i ask why not go for the best then?


and Nigerians are indirectly mocking brutalised journalist, activist and oppsitions of Buhari's regime and if most guys were young then they all at least know Fela ''anikulapo'' kuti's song of beast of no nation

are we all now saying felawas high of cannabis when he sang against the rulership of Buhari then.

I weep for the forgetfulness of my people.  

and by virtue of the failure of the alliance it shows that he will always be stubborn as ever.

Just sharing this story from a friend!

One day a Corrupt Senator was tragically hit by a car n died. His soul arrives in heaven n is met by St. Peter @d entrance."Welcome " says St. Peter. "B4 u settle in, u have 2 spend one day in hell n one in heaven. Then u choose where 2spend eternity. St. Peter escorts him 2d elevator n he goes down 2hell. D doors open n he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course,a clubhouse in front of it are all his friends,politicians who had worked with him. Everyone is very happy. They run 2greet him,shake hands, n reminisce abt d good times they had while getting rich @d expense of d people. They played a friendly game of golf n then dine on lobster,caviar n d finest champagne. Also present is d devil, who really is a very friendly guy who is having a good time dancing n telling jokes.  They r all having such a good time that b4 d Senator realizes it, it is time to go.  Everyone gives him a hearty farewell n waves while d elevator rises, d elevator goes up, up, n d door reopens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting 4him, "Now it's time to visit heaven,   "So, 24 hours passed with d Senator joining a group of contented souls moving frm cloud2cloud, playing d harp n singin.  They ad a good time. St. Peter returns.  "Well, u've spent a day in hell n anoda in heaven. Now choose your eternity.  " Senator reflects 4a minute, then he answers:  "Well, I would neva av said it b4, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would b better off in hell.  "So St. Peter escorts him 2d elevator n he goes down 2hell,   Now d doors of d elevator open n he's in d middle of a barren land covered with waste n garbage, all his friends dressed in rags, picking up d trash n putting it in black bags as more trash falls frm above.d devil comes over 2 him n puts his arm around his shoulders.  "I don't understand, "stammers d Senator.  "Yesterday I was here What happened?  " devil smiles @him n says, "Yesterday WE were campaigning.  Today, YOU voted, "  Vote wisely in 2011 Elections!  


Reject Asiwaju Congress Network, ACN
Reject Crisis Propagation Council, CPC

VOTE FRESH AIR!!!  Goodluck we know,  ,   the rest we CANNOT TRUST!!!

Here is my version of the story
_______________

Just sharing this story from a friend!

One day a Corrupt Senator was tragically hit by a car n died. His soul arrives in heaven n is met by St. Peter @d entrance."Welcome " says St. Peter. "B4 u settle in, u have 2 spend one day in hell n one in heaven. Then u choose where 2spend eternity. St. Peter escorts him 2d elevator n he goes down 2hell. D doors open n he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course,a clubhouse in front of it are all his friends,politicians who had worked with him. Everyone is very happy. They run 2greet him,shake hands, n reminisce abt d good times they had while getting rich @d expense of d people. They played a friendly game of golf n then dine on lobster,caviar n d finest champagne. Also present is d devil, who really is a very friendly guy who is having a good time dancing n telling jokes. They r all having such a good time that b4 d Senator realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a hearty farewell n waves while d elevator rises, d elevator goes up, up, n d door reopens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting 4him, "Now it's time to visit heaven, "So, 24 hours passed with d Senator joining a group of contented souls moving frm cloud2cloud, playing d harp n singin. They ad a good time. St. Peter returns. "Well, u've spent a day in hell n anoda in heaven. Now choose your eternity. " Senator reflects 4a minute, then he answers: "Well, I would neva av said it b4, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would b better off in hell. "So St. Peter escorts him 2d elevator n he goes down 2hell, Now d doors of d elevator open n he's in d middle of a barren land covered with waste n garbage, all his friends dressed in rags, picking up d trash n putting it in black bags as more trash falls frm above.d devil comes over 2 him n puts his arm around his shoulders. "I don't understand, "stammers d Senator. "Yesterday I was here What happened? " devil smiles @him n says, "Yesterday WE were campaigning. Today, YOU voted, " Vote wisely in 2011 Elections!


Reject Badluck Jonathan
Reject Poverty Development Party, PDP

VOTE FOR CHANGE!!! VOTE BUHARI/BAKARE, THE CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN

aletheia:

This is an example of why I consider most Buhari supporters as ignorant dreamers. The constitution says that for you to win the election you must have at least 25% of the total votes in at least 24 states + FCT. The SS and SE are 11 states (leaving 25 states). So how can the Buhari campaign win the election with zero votes from the SS and SE? This deluded thinking is what informed the decision of the Buhari campaign to ignore these regions (a massive failure in strategic thinking). For example in the USA, I know that the Republican and Democratic parties usually target each others stronghold.

In observing the events of this campaign, I realized that only the PDP ran a modern campaign. They have deliberately targeted votes in the opposition strongholds, and this will see them securing at least a quarter of votes in a lot of this states.

Dream on. Not going to happen. Will Buhari step down for Ribadu? I think you and I know the answer to that.

you're just messing right. you're not really THAT dum.b are you??

This must be April Fools.

timbuk two:


you're just messing right. you're not really THAT dum.b are you??

Since you cannot refute the unassailable logic, you debouch into personal insults. That has always been the typical Buhari supporter's tactic.

This was what you wrote:

timbuk two:

it is entirely feasible for a candidate to win this election without winning a single vote from the south south and south east

Which I countered by pointing out that:

aletheia:

. . .The constitution says that for you to win the election you must have at least 25% of the total votes in at least 24 states + FCT. The SS and SE are 11 states (leaving 25 states). So how can the Buhari campaign win the election with zero votes from the SS and SE?

 
You have a long way to go bro, before your candidate will win a national election with less than 15% of the votes in the SE and SS. . .even if he wins 100% of the votes in the NW. Believe me, unlike you, I have run the numbers and they say Buhari is headed for a defeat.

aletheia:

Since you cannot refute the unassailable logic, you debouch into personal insults. That has always been the typical Buhari supporter's tactic.

This was what you wrote:
Which I countered by pointing out that: 
You have a long way to go bro, before your candidate will win a national election with less than 15% of the votes in the SE and SS. . .even if he wins 100% of the votes in the NW. Believe me, unlike you, I have run the numbers and they say Buhari is headed for a defeat.

dude, everyone has seen the numbers. both the south south and south east combined are less than the north west. and our constitution means that you DON'T need to win over 25% (or in fact ANY votes) in the south south or south east to win the election. i'm sorry if you dont agree with these rules but they are just the simple facts of the matter.

but please keep running your number man, i just hope you aint using IPSOS figures as they're lies.