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​�S&P 500 - average monthly movement(%)

What is the S&P 500❓

❗️The Standard & Poor's 500 index, better known as the S&P 500, is the most important tool for measuring the state of the US economy❗️

This index tracks the stocks of the 500 largest companies that are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq.�

�Companies are selected based on their market capitalization, that is, the total value of all their shares in circulation. For example, a technology company selling 25 million shares at $200 each will have a market capitalization of $5 billion.

�Usually the worst months for the index are February and September.

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​�� About market cycles

The American stock market also had its own supercycles - as many as three in its more than a century history.�

The last cycle began in 2009 and in fact continues to this day. Nevertheless, now more than ever there are many prerequisites for a "decade in the side", of which there were as many as five5️⃣:

▪️The valuation of companies has a historical correlation with future profitability. Now, most American and European companies are valued historically expensive.

▪️The share of the world stock market as a percentage of world GDP is at historical highs - more than 120% (before that, a value above 100% was observed only in 2000 and 2008).

▪️Over the past 700 years, there has been a steady trend of declining interest rates on a global scale. This also supported stocks as an asset class. However, now there is simply nowhere to fall lower.

�Of course, all this does not mean that the market is guaranteed to spend the next 10 years in the sideways. But nevertheless, it is likely that it will be almost impossible to earn double-digit returns simply by sitting out in the indices.��‍♂️

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​�The best stock return in 30 years��

If you look at the companies that have brought the best results during this time, you get a rather interesting combination of well-known technology giants and companies that are hardly perceived by most investors as unique investment opportunities.

�Among the tech giants:
- The top 1️⃣0️⃣ includes Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix and Apple
- Google, Facebook and Tesla have a much shorter public history and have not had time to grow so much
- Microsoft was already quite expensive 30 years ago, so on average it did not grow so fast

�But most of the list are companies from which you can hardly expect record returns.:
- Top 1️⃣ - producer of energy drinks Monster Beverage
- Top 3️⃣ - seller of Pool products
- Further down the list, there are generally "dying" industries like tobacco (Altria) or offline retail (Best Buy, Lowe's, Ross Stores), etc.

But at the same time, there is not a single raw material company, industrial company or, for example, a bank in the list.�
��I think there are two main reasons for this.

▪️First, such businesses are very capital-intensive and they need constant large investments for rapid growth.
▪️Secondly, as a rule, business in such companies is cyclical and depends on external factors, so it is much more difficult to grow steadily for 30 years.

�The conclusion from these statistics, in my opinion, is quite simple

Interesting companies can be in any field, even very non-obvious ones, so it's worth looking at the market broadly in search of opportunities, and not limiting yourself to some individual industries or other factors. But if you are looking for really long-term investment opportunities, it is better to look at relatively small non-cyclical companies that do not need a lot of capital to grow a business.

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​�Growth of the share of the euro in international settlements.

Over the past two years, the euro has increased its share in international settlements. Just as traditionally, the euro is less prone to inflation than the dollar.

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​�NASDAQ-100 returns by year.

The index includes the 100 largest companies by capitalization whose shares are traded on the NASDAQ stock exchange. (Does not include financial sector companies)

�For 1 year the index grew by +27.51%, for 5 years by +252.19%, for 10 years +702.29%

The largest 5️⃣ companies by weight account for almost 40% of the weight of the entire index:

— Apple ($AAPL)
— Microsoft ($MSFT)
— Amazon ($AMZN)
— Meta ($FB)
— Tesla ($TSLA)

Only 2️⃣2️⃣ companies have a weight in the index greater than 1% (in total they account for 70% of the weight of the index)

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​�Goldman Sachs revised the forecast for inflation in the UK

▪️According to the bank's forecast, core and general inflation will peak in April at 4.8% and 7.2%, respectively.

▪️Overall inflation will remain above 4% until the end of 2022. After that, it will gradually decrease to the Bank of England's target level of 2%.

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