I pen this opinion as a person that feels the PDP is in a conundrum and someone that feels the next general election will either revitalise the PDP or nail the coffin in it's self inflicted,surprising decline,even in a Buhari APC presidency that presented it all the arsenal any major opposition party would ordinary have used to in a very strong position to reclaim power,viz,nationwide insecurity,entrenched corruption with sordid details emerging on a daily basis,an economy in shambles,a country more divided than it has ever been since the civil war,moral and social values in steep decline and repression of freedoms in same or even worse levels than at the height of military dictatorship in 1984.
Enter the presidential ticket nominations and the pendulum surprisingly looks to be swinging the APC's way,despite on inspite of the likelihood of it presenting Bola Ahmed Tinubu,another in his latter years of life,with a contentious corrupt cloud hanging over his past and present business and leadership dealings.
Continues..

PDP's nomination
The PDP is controlled by it's state governors,particularly the financial war chest of governor Nyesom Wike is tending towards nominating a Northerner,as it's presidential candidate.This will pave a way for Wike or any of the outgoing 2 term Southern governors to be the party's vice presidential candidate.
The most likely Northern candidates are Abubakar Atiku, Governor Tambuwal of Sokoto State or the Bauchi State governor who Wike seems to have tacitly lent his support to.
Each of these candidates,Atiku of whom I think is the strongest of them all,will leave PDP clutching at straws,if APC goes ahead to nominate a Southern candidate, specifically a Bola Tinubu,or even an Osinbajo,in my humble opinion.
TBC..

Hmm

Because Apc is Pdp

The arithmetic of a Tinubu/North vs Atiku/South candidacy
Contrary to some other opinion,despite the handicaps a Tinubu candidacy may present,surprisingly the Arithmetic seems to favor him (assuming he wins the primaries) than any other candidate.
Lagos is sewn up for him because the voting population that would be mobilised to vote that day are the commoners and some chunk of the middle class.Majority of Southwestern votes too,despite party affiliation.
Since elections started becoming relatively credible in Nigeria,the SouthEast has been shown to historical have a penchant for not turning up on election day,to be made worse if no southeasterner is on any of the ballots.So whatever the tally there,it won't make much difference to the overall margin or the 25% spread,who ever wins here.
Same,but to a lesser extent applies to the South South.A PDP candidate may win here,but the Lagos margin alone may wipe out whatever gain the PDP secures here.
TBC

The North Central
This is up for grabs.May go either way,but may tint slightly to a Tinubu,even in states like Benue with a PDP governor.
The Northeast
Tinubu to carry the day if he continues to rally the governors around him.[b][/b]
TBC...

So after condemning PMB..you still have mind to be rooting subtly for Tinubu at his age??Who do Nigeria?

Kam2021:
So after condemning PMB..you still have mind to be rooting subtly for Tinubu at his age??Who do Nigeria?

Because he is not an ipob terrorist, who lives and drinks hate. Who hates Fulani APC but loves PDP Fulani.

I think Tinubu supporters are living in self denial.
To them, Tinubu is as good as being the president of Nigeria and the election is just a mere academic exercise.
Even within the APC, Osibanjo's candidacy is already a headache for them making them to resort to blackmail

Kam2021:
So after condemning PMB..you still have mind to be rooting subtly for Tinubu at his age??Who do Nigeria?

To be honest with you,I am still asking myself the same question.
But I am not rooting for Tinubu o,just looking at the mathematics IF he emerges the APC candidate vis-a-vis a Northern PDP candidate.
Let's also face reality here:
The Nigerian political space has become akin to that of the US,just 2 major parties and the president will always emerge from either of these 2,unless another major party from elements of these 2,is formed.
Much as a Moghalu for eg maybe a very good presidential material the structure is not just there to usurp either major party candidate and just like in the US,the majority of the voting is done on party lines by members,affiliates or financially induced electorates of either party.
Obiano had an opportunity to make APGA a formidable national party,but he chickened out.
I am thus analysing the Nigerian political space as a realist,no matter how horrible the present person and his party of liars and criminals,has performed.

doctokwus:
The North Central
This is up for grabs.May go either way,but may tint slightly to a Tinubu,even in states like Benue with a PDP governor.
The Northeast
Tinubu to carry the day if he continues to rally the governors around him.[b][/b]
TBC...

Well you are entitled to your opinion.


The next election wud be won &lost in the South cos their disunity is what the North is counting on. For empirical evidence use 2019 elections results to do you projections. Tinubu no doubt is popular but beat Atiku in the North is an assumption that is forgivable. The South accused the North of born to rule mentality so what is happening in the South is a testimony that every section loves power. SW had 8years, SS 4years, NW wud be 12 years after 2023. what about NC, NE & SE? The North divided South & got power they will do same again. They sowed rebellion in PDP, they have gradually started in APC pending 2023. All the events in APC are the landmines waiting to go up. Don't under rate any region the stakes are higher now

Bobloco:
I think Tinubu supporters are living in self denial.
To them, Tinubu is as good as being the president of Nigeria and the election is just a mere academic exercise.
Even within the APC, Osibanjo's candidacy is already a headache for them making them to resort to blackmail

Please I am not a Tinubu advocate.
This is an analysis of the current position of things as I see it.
For me an Osinbajo,Umahi or Anyim would be preferable and a breath of fresh air,but you are looking at a candidate with a heavy war chest and some governors that don't give account to anyone & ready to spend their state treasury, already lining up behind him.
Take an eg,a simple arithmetic of the new ₦800 daily bus levy in Lagos: assuming there are 100k buses per day.A day gives ₦80m.Monthly gives ₦2.4billion!
From now till end of 2022 makes ₦24b!!
If Lagos State turns over that entire 24b to Tinubu,that maybe more than enough to buy him the delegates needed for the primary election and ₦10k to each electorate to buy 2million votes with the present poverty level in Lagos State!!!

APC = PDP.
We need another set of people to lead us.

Bobloco:
I think Tinubu supporters are living in self denial.
To them, Tinubu is as good as being the president of Nigeria and the election is just a mere academic exercise.
Even within the APC, Osibanjo's candidacy is already a headache for them making them to resort to blackmail

For me, Tinubu is working for Osibanjo. He can't stand the Nigeria of today. He knows we know his antecedents. His campaign is to get his party to give the ticket to his preferred candidate. Alot of questions his answers may not convince most electorates. APC ticket should go the South &PDP to the North. If APC wants to defeat PDP it should adopt the strategy used in Nasarawa state. Even that may not work cos over here GMB &his party ain't sure of 'sak'. The North did 'sak' &are facing 'sak' troubles

doctokwus:

Please I am not a Tinubu advocate.
This is an analysis of the current position of things as I see it.
For me an Osinbajo,Umahi or Anyim would be preferable and a breath of fresh air,but you are looking at a candidate with a heavy war chest and some governors that don't give account to anyone & ready to spend their state treasury, already lining up behind him.
Take an eg,a simple arithmetic of the present arithmetic of the new ₦800 daily bus levy in Lagos: assuming there are 100k buses per day.A day gives ₦80m.Monthly gives ₦2.4billion!
From now till end of 2022 makes ₦24b!!
If Lagos State turns over that entire 24b to Tinubu,that maybe more than enough to buy him the delegates needed for the primary election and ₦10k to each electorate to buy 2million votes with the present poverty level in Lagos State!!!

10k ke, na 1sachet of Chelsea go buy some people vote sef.
#450 bought about 7adults vote in my presence during the last election

Nonpartisan1:


Because he is not an ipob terrorist, who lives and drinks hate. Who hates Fulani APC but loves PDP Fulani.

What a reply

Bobloco:
I think Tinubu supporters are living in self denial.
To them, Tinubu is as good as being the president of Nigeria and the election is just a mere academic exercise.
Even within the APC, Osibanjo's candidacy is already a headache for them making them to resort to blackmail

You can also create your thread and tell us who you feel will win.

All I want is a peaceful election in 2023.

slivertongue:



Tinubu no doubt is popular but beat Atiku in the North is an assumption that is forgivable. The South accused the North of born to rule mentality so what is happening in the South is a testimony that every section loves power. SW had 8years, SS 4years, NW wud be 12 years after 2023. what about NC, NE & SE? The North divided South & got power they will do same again. They sowed rebellion in PDP, they have gradually started in APC pending 2023. All the happens in APC are the landmines waiting to go up. Don't under rate any region the stakes are higher now

So in your mind, you think Atiku will easily defeat Tinubu in states like Benue, Taraba, Kwara, FCT, Nassarawa etc

Keep on deceiving yourself boy.

On that election day, when you start seeing result coming out from the likes of Borno, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and you see Tinubu giving Atiku a good run for his money on that day, I hope you won't have a HBP.

juman:
APC = PDP.
We need another set of people to lead us.

It can happen in future but not in 2023.

The presidential election in 2023 is between APC and PDP.

OlujobaSamuel:

10k ke, na 1sachet of Chelsea go buy some people vote sef.
#450 bought about 7adults vote in my presence during the last election

So means with 5k Lagos State may guarantee him 3-5million votes.
A margin of even 2million from Lagos alone maybe impossible to beat,bearing in mind Kano is not just an APC state,but that the present governor is not only sympathetic to the Tinubu cause,for obvious selfish reasons,but is also one that has shown a tendency to use state treasury to advance personal goals.

DubaiLandLord2:
It can happen in future but not in 2023.

The presidential election in 2023 is between APC and PDP.

The painful,but sad reality in Nigeria of today.
APGA would have been a third formidable party that the Ibos and other aggrieved candidates would have rallied to,but governor after governor seems to have vowed to constrain the party not just to a regional one,but even now a one state party!
Unless there is also a coalition of forces at the centre standing behind Osinbajo,I don't also see how his personal appeal,relatively younger age and relatively cleaner past,can usurp the heavy party and financial war chest Tinubu is building.
For eg,the APC candidate would be determined by delegates.Delegates from Lagos for eg would be comprised mainly of state annointed road union top shots,party top shots and acquaintances of Tinubu or SanwoOlu.These are almost all to be screened and guaranteed of casting their votes for Tinubu.Blood oath taking to guarantee these votes may even be administered.
Even if Buhari,the worst president ever,wants to throw his weight behind Osinbajo or any other candidate,how Tinubu overturned his support for Ambode and chose SanwoOlu instead,would make him to bed very circumspect,lest he gets embarrassed by the results of supporting a candidate against Tinubu.Dont also forget Buhari is now effectively a lame duck president and party top shots maynot be in awe of him,that they would otherwise have been if this was his first or early years of his second term.

slivertongue:


For me, Tinubu is working for Osibanjo. He can't stand the Nigeria of today.

The way some of una dey always talk sef

Are you for real?


You no deserve to dey this politics section abeg dey go the game section or Romance

DubaiLandLord2:
It can happen in future but not in 2023.

The presidential election in 2023 is between APC and PDP.

When is the future time?
When?

We can make it happen in next election.
Yes we can with determination.

juman:


When is the future time?
When?

We can make it happen in next election.
Yes we can with determination.

Best of luck.

doctokwus:

To be honest with you,I am still asking myself the same question.
But I am not rooting for Tinubu o,just looking at the mathematics IF he emerges the APC candidate vis-a-vis a Northern PDP candidate.
Let's also face reality here:
The Nigerian political space has become akin to that of the US,just 2 major parties and the president will always emerge from either of these 2,unless another major party from elements of these 2,is formed.
Much as a Moghalu for eg maybe a very good presidential material the structure is not just there to usurp either major party candidate and just like in the US,the majority of the voting is done on party lines by members,affiliates or financially induced electorates of either party.
Obiano had an opportunity to make APGA a formidable national party,but he chickened out.
I am thus analysing the Nigerian political space as a realist,no matter how horrible the present person and his party of liars and criminals,has performed.

The likes of Moghalu wont even get the up to the number of votes required especially up north. Baba garnered 21,886 nationwide during the last presidential election. Infact Fela Durotoye polled 16,779.

DubaiLandLord2:
So in your mind, you think Atiku will easily defeat Tinubu in states like Benue, Taraba, Kwara, FCT, Nassarawa etc

Keep on deceiving yourself boy.

On that election day, when you start seeing result coming out from the likes of Borno, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and you see Tinubu giving Atiku a good run for his money on that day, I hope you won't have a HBP.

First it's about party then individuals. Atiku has tested the waters and each time he gets better. Asiwaju hasn't and can't &won't arrogate that to himself. I call kwara for Tinubu. What happened to GMB/APC in FCT in 2019? What was Atiku/PDP score in Benue, Taraba & Nasarawa states in 2019? APC &PDP are bigger than the two. Same as Nigeria

DubaiLandLord2:
The way some of una dey always talk sef

Are you for real?


You no deserve to dey this politics section abeg dey go the game section or Romance

No one here in the North is buying the story that he has solutions to Nigeria's problem. The questions about his source of wealth is an issue. He education & origin is another. It's easy to talk of Muslim Muslim ticket. The last time it happened it didn't materialize. The North itself will kill it cos it knows it will lead to rebellion from the middle belt & south. Same North won't accept a Christian Northerner to be president. Northern APC knows where her prospect lay. It is with a southern Christian. PDP knows it lay with a Northern Muslim owning to the fact that the ticket was zoned to them in the last election & technically 2023 election. Only a dialogue amongst party members would change this arrangement. Regardless of party permutations, the electorates who are not party members may think otherwise &vote who they think has their interest at heart.

slivertongue:





First it's about party then individuals. Atiku has tested the waters and each time he gets better. Asiwaju hasn't and can't &won't arrogate that to himself. I call kwara for Tinubu. What happened to GMB/APC in FCT in 2019? What was Atiku/PDP score in Benue, Taraba & Nasarawa states in 2019? APC &PDP are bigger than the two. Same as Nigeria

How many time did GEJ test the water before he was elected? Or how many time Yardua test the water before he was elected?

doctokwus:
The arithmetic of a Tinubu/North vs Atiku/South candidacy
Contrary to some other opinion,despite the handicaps a Tinubu candidacy may present,surprisingly the Arithmetic seems to favor him (assuming he wins the primaries) than any other candidate.
Lagos is sewn up for him because the voting population that would be mobilised to vote that day are the commoners and some chunk of the middle class.Majority of Southwestern votes too,despite party affiliation.
Since elections started becoming relatively credible in Nigeria,the SouthEast has been shown to historical have a penchant for not turning up on election day,to be made worse if no southeasterner is on any of the ballots.So whatever the tally there,it won't make much difference to the overall margin or the 25% spread,who ever wins here.
Same,but to a lesser extent applies to the South South.A PDP candidate may win here,but the Lagos margin alone may wipe out whatever gain the PDP secures here.
TBC

If APC gives Tinubu the ticket(which I doubt), and PDP gives to north (which I also doubt), PDP will win fair and square.
The north is prepared for a slip in South. They are mobilizing seriously and if the South fails to agree on SE, it will happen.
SE might not vote; yes. South South will go to PDP especially with Udom or Okowa as VP. Wike can't be VP. He doesn't have that mien. OBJ made that mistake with Atiku, no one wants to repeat it.
Apart from Nasarawa and Kwara in NC, APC will struggle there.
NW will vote a northern candidate. It's sacrosanct. Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara and 40% of Kano will give PDP victory there.
NE will ostracize anyone that works against their chance to be president.
So a closer observer will tell you this.

doctokwus:
PDP's nomination
The PDP is controlled by it's state governors,particularly the financial war chest of governor Nyesom Wike is tending towards nominating a Northerner,as it's presidential candidate.This will pave a way for Wike or any of the outgoing 2 term Southern governors to be the party's vice presidential candidate.
The most likely Northern candidates are Abubakar Atiku, Governor Tambuwal of Sokoto State or the Bauchi State governor who Wike seems to have tacitly lent his support to.
Each of these candidates,Atiku of whom I think is the strongest of them all,will leave PDP clutching at straws,if APC goes ahead to nominate a Southern candidate, specifically a Bola Tinubu,or even an Osinbajo,in my humble opinion.
TBC..

Who told you Wike controls PDP? Wike can't even control South South PDP. Is he more influential than Peter Odili? But we know how it ended.
If the retired Generals decide where power goes, nobody will even consult Wike if Rivers money is to be used.

DubaiLandLord2:
How many time did GEJ test the water before he was elected? Or how many time Yardua test the water before he was elected?

How many times did GMB try?