bibianna:
As if he knows what he's doing!

Nice dancer �

4 me I will like d foreign country dey buy our national resources with naira. It will make it stronger

The Naira has already been floated more than three times in the past two years, and what has been the result of those floating?
You will notice after each floating/devaluation of the naira the market will normalize for about two to three weeks then all of a sudden business begin as usual. then give it another one or two moths, the gap will be wide open again.

we have been going in circles and that have led us to where we are Today. Now imagine a situation where the Naira is on auto pilot and its without any interventions , considering the tendencies of our banks (who will buy your $ at official rate but sell to you at market rate) or our BDC (the Alhajis) what would have been the fate of the Naira now. Just as someone rightly said,, a $ would have exchange for over ₦2,000 by now.

We need practical solutions and also need to take the problem from the root not all these ineffective short sighted approach. I just wonder how a technocrat could pilot a sinking ship for about a decade without a viable solution rather leading the Apex bank to a point where even rookies held the post it wasn't as bad as we had it now.
It would have been an honorable thing to resign if there are many bottlenecks that would not allow you do your job rather than tarnish a successive business career built over the years.

JuanDeDios:

It won't. And nobody can actually stop Emefiele from "supplying dollars" all he wants. The floating he needs to do is abolish the "CBN rate". That will close the difference between the "black market" and the official rate (570:415 to, say, 520). This will end round-tripping and every dollar "supplied" by the CBN will actually help stabilize the market. Under the current system, a few fat cats benefit while SMEs and the common man suffer.

But he won't let go of the current system, which is how they "eat". That's why some people want to make him president.

Llyodsjids:
Isn't the currency already floating?, Despite your so called "interventions", look at how volatile it is
Aside how shitty the economy is, do what's best, ban those aboki and black market operators of fx and control everything by using a standardized inter-bank rate, it would help alot by reducing speculations and put things in your control

That is the simplest thing to do in a sane society.
What even is Aboki business (who can hardly add 2+2) with currency exchange?.
Btw what you suggested was done years back but it was not effective as banks will always tell you they have no Dollar buy sit around and you will see different abokis walking out of the same bank with different denomination of Dollars (They offer the banks a rate higher than the official rate) and You that really need it have no choice than to go to the abokis and buy at a much higher rate since the banks will not sell to you (even if you offer the same price the aboki offer for fear of being reported to the CBN).
We really are in a mess and its just by the grace of God and the recent rice in global oil price that is still keeping the naira in the region of ₦600.
Going into the holidays in December (Remember no more travel ban) and the election drawing near, it will be a miracle we wouldn't reach the ₦1,000 mark by January 2023.

koning:
No free fall for Naira.

Cap it at N700 to $1. I think it's about N600 now at the black market.

Just like that?

Is that a guarantee that the black market rate will not rise beyond the ₦700 cap in another two weeks?

Have you considered what effect it will have on the economy? how it will shoot up the already skyrocketed price of commodities in the market.

I dont want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but most of those who owns the BDCs are top guns at the CBN they will hoard the Dollars till you will even be begging to buy at ₦800,

when that happened then we advice CBN to cap the naira at ₦1000 again and the circle goes on and on.

All we need is just a strategic policy that will tackle heads on the excess of the BDC /banks/ black market operators

JuanDeDios:

You're arguing blindly. Chai.

Let me try again. The black market is abnormal. The reason we have it is because the CBN tries to fix a price that is below the market value ($1=N415). Holdlers of dollars will not sell at that price because it's below market value, hence you have the black market. If the CBN wakes up and says "Here, we're not fixing price anymore, let the market determine," all the money CBN ploughs into its "official market", a lof of which end up being round-triped by Alhajis and emirs and chiefs, will come into the single market. This will force the current "black market" price (N570) (at which most real sector players buy) to come down because more dollars will be available to the single market. Since there is no CBN artificial rate (which traders rarely have access to anyway), you no longer have a "black market" and the market forces rule the single market. This is better for the economy because dollar will come down. But it's not good for the few connected people (your "few cabals" ) and other crooks who are engaged in round tripping which is enabled by the dual market.

#Okbye

I appreciate your technical input sir but i will like you to educate me more.

How can the market determine the price of a commodity it has no control over? Remember we don't have control over the Dollars.

If CBN stop fixing official rate, Will i have reasons to complain when my bank charge me a rate of ₦1000 per dollar for a purchase i made using my Naira debit card (remember no official rate and they have the right to claim that is the price they got it )

What happened if all the BDC operators (of which most of them are CBN big wigs anyway) buy off the money CBN plough into the market at a lower price then hoard it and decide to sell for over ₦1,000 (buyers will have no other place to run to)


Remember sir that we already are not generating enough foreign exchange as we are a import dependent country and we aren't making any practical effort to change the narratives.

odaniel1:

Nice dancer �

Thanks Odan

Repeated post.

WithX:


I appreciate your technical input sir but i will like you to educate me more.

How can the market determine the price of a commodity it has no control over? Remember we don't have control over the Dollars.

If CBN stop fixing official rate, Will i have reasons to complain when my bank charge me a rate of ₦1000 per dollar for a purchase i made using my Naira debit card (remember no official rate and they have the right to claim that is the price they got it )

What happened if all the BDC operators (of which most of them are CBN big wigs anyway) buy off the money CBN plough into the market at a lower price then hoard it and decide to sell for over ₦1,000 (buyers will have no other place to run to)


Remember sir that we already are not generating enough foreign exchange as we are a import dependent country and we aren't making any practical effort to change the narratives.

Does the market control things or things control the market? That depends on your point of view. Actually, it's not an important question/argument.

The question you should ask yourself is this: why hasn't the black market gone up to $1=N2000 since it's not regulated by the CBN or any "official"? Since "official rate" isn't available to most SME traders and multinational companies, why aren't BDCs hoarding dollars now and selling them at N2000? Look, it's simple really: The "official rate" is useless to most people - it certainly is to me and to most SME businesspeople.

The dollars in the black market come from two sources: those generated from remittances and by the market organically and those round-triped from CBN "interventions". If you abolish "official rate", any dollars released by the CBN to try to "stabilize" the market will come into the single market (which is neither black nor official, just market). The rate will be forced down to N490-N520 instead of going up to N2000 like you people are predicting.

No, the banks can't lie to you that they bought a dollar for N1000 for the same reason Camry 2008 sellers aren't lying to you that they buy them for N15m. You just need to understand the market.

And, no, the naira has never been floated in recent years. Jacking up the "official rate" slightly isn't floating.

okeysoninv:
You are not getting right, how come black market determines the actual rate of naira. these has been on debate since. it's only in Nigeria we have exchange of 420-600. it's only in Nigeria is where you can find oil prices going up but it won't reflect in the currency instead the currency is going down. where do we go from here

Because the "official market" does not have enough.

Imagine if Buhari wakes up tomorrow and announces that a bag of rice is now N12,000 (official rate). You're a rice farmer. Will you sell? No. Because that price will see your kids out of school given how much it cost you to cultivate the rice: Buhari's price does not reflect the market. So you and your fellow farmers will simply leave your rice in the warehouses. After a few days, people will start pressuring you sell, coming to your house at night and offering N28,000 (black market). Why? Because there isn't enough rice to buy at the main market where it's sold for N12000 under the watchful eyes of the police. Soon, only rice produced in government-owned farms is sold at main market but that rice isn't enough to satisfy 5% of demand. So several night markets emerge where rice is sold for N28-30,000 and that's where most people buy. When you look at it, N28-N30,000 is the actual price of rice, not N12,000 because rice isn't really available at that price except to a few people who have connections at the ministry of agriculture. They too buy at N12,000 and sell at N28-30,000 at the night market and then make returns to their friends at the ministry of agric. See?

It's not only in Nigeria you have the dual market. Any country where someone tries to fix an "official rate" experiences the dual market.

Oil prices impact exchange rates in Nigeria. At least, in the past. The reason it's not doing so now is because we're not selling enough oil - there's a crisis in the oil sector.

Parachoko:

https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria-wont-float-naira-emefiele-tells-imf-world-bank/

This CBN Governor is as incompetent as the man he works for. Sure you wouldn't want to go for a floating exchange rate because that will be the end of Naira.

In Economic reality, a floating exchange rate is the best, but that will be Nigeria losing because we don't have any strength on the supply side of the international market because we supply only obsolete crude oil.

I remember this man together with Buhari shouting diversification since 2016, where is the diversified economy today.

bibianna:
As if he knows what he's doing!

Oh sure, let's hand the CBN governorship over to you. Did you pass secondary school? You think this is about looking for somebody with money to fck? Just return to the kitchen where you belong, or watching BB Naija with your Brazilian dog hair and bleached skin.

JuanDeDios:

Because the "official market" does not have enough.

Imagine if Buhari wakes up tomorrow and announces that a bag of rice is now N12,000 (official rate). You're a rice farmer. Will you sell? No. Because that price will see your kids out of school given how much it cost you to cultivate the rice: Buhari's price does not reflect the market. So you and your fellow farmers will simply leave your rice in the warehouses. After a few days, people will start pressuring you sell, coming to your house at night and offering N28,000 (black market). Why? Because there isn't enough rice to buy at the main market where it's sold for N12000 under the watchful eyes of the police. Soon, only rice produced in government-owned farms is sold at main market but that rice isn't enough to satisfy 5% of demand. So several night markets emerge where rice is sold for N28-30,000 and that's where most people buy. When you look at it, N28-N30,000 is the actual price of rice, not N12,000 because rice isn't really available at that price except to a few people who have connections at the ministry of agriculture. They too buy at N12,000 and sell at N28-30,000 at the night market and then make returns to their friends at the ministry of agric. See?

It's not only in Nigeria you have the dual market. Any country where someone tries to fix an "official rate" experiences the dual market.

Oil prices impact exchange rates in Nigeria. At least, in the past. The reason it's not doing so now is because we're not selling enough oil - there's a crisis in the oil sector.

do you why they called it black market. Reason is because it's underworld market. Black markets cabals are holding the nation for Ransom . The amount of corruption going on in currency market is mind blowing if you must know. Tell me in history of nigeria where we have price differences from 420-600, and still growing . Who determines this rate. What parameters are they using so many questions begging for ans.

okeysoninv:
do you why they called it black market. Reason is because it's underworld market. Black markets cabals are holding the nation for Ransom . The amount of corruption going on in currency market is mind blowing if you must know. Tell me in history of nigeria where we have price differences from 420-600, and still growing . Who determines this rate. What parameters are they using so many questions begging for ans.

You're the same guy I was chatting with yesterday repeating the same thing forever. I actually thought the last post was written by someone else. Sorry.

Inception:


Black market now:

$1= N600

It is only a matter of time..

e don pass sef

$1= N800 here we go