I haven't been up to speed in Nigerian issues to comment fully but I agree, I think I've made this point before here, that our Central Bank governor has to be someone with impeccable academic credentials. This is not an ode to credentialism but a recognition that, unlike the developed countries with a depth of highly qualified support staff, the governor has to have an excellent mastery of the pertinent issues.  This is where Sanusi is lacking.

He does, however, trump  the likes of Soludo in respect of personal integrity, at least, by Nigerian standards. Not sure whether that makes up for his other competent issues.

Katsumoto:

'According to him (Sanusi), the management team of the bank would today meet the Senate committee on Banking aimed at answering questions ranging from whether the bank has the right to lend money or answer to charges of improper appropriation of money to the five troubled banks, adding, “we will go and meet them today to tell us whether we need any appropriation to perform our statutory duties”.

Defending the injection of N420billion to save the banks, Sanusi noted that what the apex bank did was not a bailout, but liquidity support and financial intervention to bring them back to a position where they would then be able  to provide their contractual obligations to their customers, adding that much of the money borrowed out by the banks will not come back.'

Bernanke was criticised for QE2 (releasing $600 bn into the US economy) on the basis that it would lead to inflation even though the US inflation rate was 1.8%. Why would a competent economist release 420 billion into an economy with inflation at a rate of 16% (I am sure it is higher than 16%)? How does a CBN governor release money into the money market without planning on how to take it back? An undergraduate economics major WILL fail an exam if he answers in such a manner.

I'm not against injecting money into the system but you must have a way to pull it out. For every % money in circulation which injected into the system will cause a same % rise in inflation, therefore, how much money is in circulation that SLS had to inject another $3billion into the system causing a staggering 16% inflation?

Soludo is definitely sharper than Bernanke. Why all the inferiority complex with Nigerians

ndu_chucks:

@katsumoto, I'll let you continue with your exercise. You simply seem to have already made up your mind on the questions you raised. That is the root of my objections.  

Sanusi for president, 2015!!

Old pal,

You have it all wrong. Please re-read my original post. With people saying he was brilliant, I wanted to know why. So I dug into his background and found that it is a bit limited, moreso for a CBN Governor. I then thought that perhaps, he has written articles and books on Macroeconomics. But alas, all his articles and speeches are Islamic in nature. So I thought again, perhaps I am missing something. I was hoping someone would correct my impression by stating the SLS wrote such and such a paper on macroeconomics, economics of the public sector, macroeconomics of open economics, etc but it appears that I was correct on my initial assessment. I admit that SLS is bold and I loved the way he tackled the greedy legislators but that is not enough to have such a job.

Anyway, I will continue with the original intent of my thread.

manny4life:


I'm not against injecting money into the system but you must have a way to pull it out. For every % money in circulation which injected into the system will cause a same % rise in inflation, therefore, how much money is in circulation that SLS had to inject another $3billion into the system causing a staggering 16% inflation?

You get the point about increasing and decreasing supply. 16% was before the cash injection by SLS. It was quoted sometime in 2008. I suspect it is higher today but as will most things in Nigeria, it wont be reported for a while.

kalokalo:

Soludo is definitely sharper than Bernanke. Why all the inferiority complex with Nigerians

How can Soludo be sharper than Bernanke. The same Soludo who went to sleep (or looked the other way) when the CEOs were robbing the banks blind? He was either grossly incompetent or corrupt.

Sanusi must read this.

jamalah:

@Katsumoto

You will not fully understand sanusi without a full psycho analysis of his persona.

I have been studying sanusi for a long time and over the years i have come to the conclusion that he is an inconsistent and confused person.

He is moulded in the image of a very few liberal northerners like Nasiru Elrufai, Dangiwa Umar and may be the late Bala Usman of ABU Zaria. Comfortable in wearing western suits and confident in the command of the English language.  And of course able to go against some norms in the north, like his wife accompanying him to the senate hearing etc.

But by and large he is still gripped by the image of Islamic activism of which he was an active member in the late 80s Whose aim was to establish sharia rule in Nigeria by violent means if  necessary.  It is this crusading zeal and mindset that he brought to the CBN. His so called fearlessness stems from this and of course his royal arrogance that makes him to regard everybody as a bloody commoner.

No basis for comparison. SLS is a thorough professional with deep insights. He represents what we lack in Nigeria: courage to do the right things. For all I care, the whole world can gang up against him because he touched the untouchables. SLS is restoring public confidence in the sector.  The bad guys are feeling the heat.  Banking is being restored to it's care functions: intermediation and source of funds for the real economy.  Forget the hype. Those who know would testify that it is no longer business as usual.  Rules are being made and obeyed and for once, banks are not easy conduits for slush funds and stolen commonwealth. A million Soludos can't hold a candle to SLS. FAct!

Interesting so far. Keep up the posts, guys.

celemel:

No basis for comparison. SLS is a thorough professional with deep insights. He represents what we lack in Nigeria: courage to do the right things. For all I care, the whole world can gang up against him because he touched the untouchables. SLS is restoring public confidence in the sector.  The bad guys are feeling the heat.  Banking is being restored to it's care functions: intermediation and source of funds for the real economy.  Forget the hype. Those who know would testify that it is no longer business as usual.  Rules are being made and obeyed and for once, banks are not easy conduits for slush funds and stolen commonwealth. A million Soludos can't hold a candle to SLS. FAct!

What are your thoughts on the lack of confidence in the Banking Industry and the loss of stock value in banking stocks.Similarly, what are your thoughts on the increase of money supply by SLS in an economy that had an inflation rate of 16%?

We shouldn't confuse good intentions with competency. I expect a frank response.

Although SLS did not attend an Ivy league school, he is still very brilliant, and well spoken. By the way, Ivy league attendance does not conote brilliance. President Bush Jr went to Havard for his MBA, and was still a schmuck until he left office  .  However, SLS is still a dud. He hasn't really achieved much if you ask me

Is Sanusi a religious bigot? I think so and time will tell.

Is he brilliant? Yes.
To those saying he's privileged I have to say this: Yes. But same goes for almost all of you on this forum. And the same goes for 90% of Nigerians who schooled/are schooling abroad or any of the so-called Rusell Group/Ivy League schools. Yes, today, you all see yourselves as the most brilliant/intelligent people Nigeria has to offer. Or is by coincidence that most you spent your childhood in Lagos? If you had been raised at Igbo Elerin, I am not sure you would be here tonight to discuss macroeconomics.

Or, do you all actually think you are the best brains in Nigeria if all Nigerians had a level playing field and equal opportunities? Most of you started from private primary schools, then private secondary schools or King/Queen College. So, that sets you on a highly privileged pedestal even to know about SAT or anything that took you to the States today is privilege those that grew up in Potiskum didn't have. Or, how did you become an Ivy Leaguer?

My point is, forget about his hegemonic background and let's judge him based and objectively/squarely based on his achievement in this position.
Or, do you want a continuation of Casino banking as practised before he assumed office? Be fair, guys.


Do I think Sanusi is a square peg in a round hole: No!

What do you mean by a backgroung in macroeconomics. That argument doesn't hold any water. What Nigeria needs at this stage isn't much of experience/ qualification per se BUT honesty and he is far ahead of Soludo in terms of moral standing.

Though, the position is not 100% a political appointment, to an extent, it is. And, in politics, you and I know that fairness is secondary.

If the position were 100% professional, Nigeria would have a clear, straightforward succession policy. We have none.

Moreover, he studied economics.

If I may add this: what knowledge of macroeconomics does Christian Lagarde have.

She's now the head of the IMF.
sHE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMICS YET SHE HEADED FRANCE'S FINANCE MINISTRY.

brb @ 12 midnight

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@Katsumoto. Permit me to make an observation regarding one of your earlier posts. Now I am no economist and I am not doubting the importance of micro-economics in the kitty of any would-be CBN Governor. In fact I am in the field where the same quantitative/mathematical models used in physics are easily applicable in Micro-economics. However my observation has to do with the way you played down "Risk management" as unimportant especially since that is the area where SLS has carved a niche for himself. Luckily again, my mathematical background allows me to see stats and probability as applied to Risk generally.
I  do not know but are you willing to allow for the fact that the institutions that collapsed during the last recession (in fact during any recession) could have used a little help from Risk Management. I mean what did the banks think would happen when they started giving mortgages to people who ordinarily defaulted on smaller credits (abi what is the concept of sub-prime lending?)
I rather think that risk management should have played an even bigger role (than it currently does) right from time. Common sense tells me that an industry(banking) that  has risk as an essential part of its operations would benefit a lot from someone who perhaps made his name from risk management. I even think that was the reason he could spot some of the things you claimed are impossible to spot within two months of being on saddle.
Please let me know your take on this. Like I said before, I am not an economist but I am very perceptive(totally my opinion. lol)

SLS is supposed to be a risk expert, yet his actions do not reflect this.

He does not appear to understand the functions of a central bank, nor does he understand macro economics.  

His conduct as First Bank MD was not exactly glittering, he has no real track record and my 10 year old niece is able to shout down Naija congress men so that's not a mark of distinction.

Let's be honest every single CBN governor over the last 25 years was either a PhD holder or had a serious and credible professional track record or both.

Yar'Adua was asleep when chose this joker.

VoodooDoll:

SLS is supposed to be a risk expert, yet his actions do not reflect this.

He does not appear to understand the functions of a central bank, nor does he understand macro economics.  

His conduct as First Bank MD was not exactly glittering, he has no real track record and my 10 year old niece is able to shout down Naija congress men so that's not a mark of distinction.

Let's be honest every single CBN governor over the last 25 years was either a PhD holder or had a serious and credible professional track record or both.

Yar'Adua was asleep when chose this joker.  

Of course your 10-year old niece can do it (afterall will she lose her job?), but a former MD of Goldman Sachs (Aganga) could not do it!
I am not sure that you can shout down your employer at work
There had been no PhD holder as CBN governor after Ola Vincent except Soludo (check out Oguma, Ahmed, Sanusi the one b4 Soludo)

http://www.concurrences.com/cv.php3?id_auteur=1029&lang=en

later, guys


^^Christine Lagarde

ola olabiy:

Is Sanusi a religious bigot? I think so and time will tell.

Is he brilliant? Yes.
To those saying he's privileged I have to say this: Yes. But same goes for almost all of you on this forum. And the same goes for 90% of Nigerians who schooled/are schooling abroad or any of the so-called Russel Group/Ivy League schools. Yes, today, you all see yourselves as the most brilliant/intelligent people Nigeria has to offer. Or is by coincidence that most you spent your childhood in Lagos. If you had been raised at Igbo Elerin, I am not sure you would be here tonight to discuss macroeconomics.

Or, do you all actually think you are the best brains in Nigeria if all Nigerians had a level playing field and equal opportunities? Most of you started from private primary schools, then private secondary schools or King/Queen College. So, that sets you on a highly privileged pedestal even to know about SAT or anything that took you to the States today is privilege those that grew up in Potiskum didn't have. Or, how did you become an Ivy Leaguer?

My point is, forget about his hegemonic background and let's judge him based and objectively/squarely based on his achievement in this position.
Or, do you want a continuation of Casino banking as practised before he assumed office? Be fair, guys.


Do I think Sanusi is a square peg in a round hole: No!

What do you mean by a backgroung in macroeconomics. That argument doesn't hold any water. What Nigeria needs at this stage isn't much of experience/ qualification per se BUT honesty and he is far ahead of Soludo in terms of moral standing.

Though, the position is not 100% a political appointment, to an extent, it is. And, in politics, you and I know that fairness is secondary.

If the position were 100% professional, Nigeria would have a clear, straightforward succession policy. We have none.

Moreover, he studied economics.

If I may add this: what knowledge of macroeconomics does Christian Lagarde have.

She's now the head of the IMF.
sHE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMICS YET SHE HEADED FRANCE'S FINANCE MINISTRY.

brb @ 12 midnight

Firstly the posters on this thread are not CBN Governors and are only discussing the suitability of the CBN Governor. Your ad hominem attack was unnecessary. Ola please research into the backgrounds of members of Central Banks. An understanding of macroeconomics is a minimum. I don't want to lecture anyone macroeconomics but a Central Bank Governor will fail if he doesn't have an expert understanding of Macroeconomics.

Christine's Lagarde's appointment was very political. She was the only credible European candidate who could be appointed with Mario Draghi'S ASCENsion to the ECB in October. With Axel Weber (Head of German Central Bank) resigning, the Europeans were left with a near empty field to replace Jean-Claude Trichet. With the understanding that the head of the World Bank will be American and the head of the IMF, European, Lagarde was pushed forward as a high profile candidate, particularly as a woman. She took the job ahead of more experienced Central Bankers such as Carsten, Stanley Fischer.

He studied economics and then went to study Islamic and Sharia Studies for 6 years. Don't you think he would have lost much of his knowledge and skill with such a long hiatus? Can you name any other personality in such a high profile role with such a similar hiatus?

ola olabiy:

Is Sanusi a religious bigot? I think so and time will tell.

Sanusi cannot be a religious bigot. Just read his writings before he became CBN governor and his prior attack on Yerima
People only see his religious aspect because of the frenzy over Islam that the press has etched on our psyche since about 2 years ago
How come nobody has ever called a christian a religious bigot?

Katsumoto:

Firstly the posters on this thread are not CBN Governors and are only discussing the suitability of the CBN Governor. Your ad hominem attack was unnecessary. Ola please research into the backgrounds of members of Central Banks. An understanding of macroeconomics is a minimum. I don't want to lecture anyone macroeconomics but a Central Bank Governor will fail if he doesn't have an expert understanding of Macroeconomics.

Sanusi succeeded Soludo a Phd Holder
Compare SLS to Joseph Sanusi, Paul Ogwuma and Ahmed (former CBN governors) and let us have your analyses of their knowledge of macro

ebogentle:

@Katsumoto. Permit me to make an observation regarding one of your earlier posts. Now I am no economist and I am not doubting the importance of micro-economics in the kitty of any would-be CBN Governor. In fact I am in the field where the same quantitative/mathematical models used in physics are easily applicable in Micro-economics. However my observation has to do with the way you played down "Risk management" as unimportant especially since that is the area where SLS has carved a niche for himself. Luckily again, my mathematical background allows me to see stats and probability as applied to Risk generally.
I  do not know but are you willing to allow for the fact that the institutions that collapsed during the last recession (in fact during any recession) could have used a little help from Risk Management. I mean what did the banks think would happen when they started giving mortgages to people who ordinarily defaulted on smaller credits (abi what is the concept of sub-prime lending?)
I rather think that risk management should have played an even bigger role (than it currently does) right from time. Common sense tells me that an industry(banking) that  has risk as an essential part of its operations would benefit a lot from someone who perhaps made his name from risk management. I even think that was the reason he could spot some of the things you claimed are impossible to spot within two months of being on saddle.
Please let me know your take on this. Like I said before, I am not an economist but I am very perceptive(totally my opinion. lol)

I know u're not asking me but I if u may let me diffuse some of the thought on here. Risk Management isn't only special when dealing with banks but in all forms of business even manufacturing. The questions isn't about risk; business as part of their operations assume risk, question is how much risk? In addition to that, how to mitigate such greater risk. When banks loan money to you for mortgages, their money is tied up in that mortgage hence they have equity on that mortgage, what collapsed the banking  and mortgage wasn't because banks gave loans to people who cannot afford it, but simply those mortgages were used to back up other securities transaction (this is a lil complex).


When recession hit, people were laid off and as a reason couldn't pay mortgage, banks were tied up and could not fulfill their securities contract, that's how the housing bubble broke. IMO Risk Management is the least thing on the mind of a CBN governor, Risk management isn'ta macroeconomic factor the gov should be worried about. If the banks fell, CBN bails them out, but instead Sanusi did something entirely.

Katsumoto:

She was the only credible European candidate who could be appointed with Mario Draghi'S ASCENsion to the ECB in October. With Axel Weber (Head of German Central Bank) resigning,

That's the word, Kats .
Credibility is the word. And, in terms of this, there is a gulf between him and Soludo or that idio.t called Aganga.

Axel Weber resigned and went to Switzerland to chair a mere investment bank.
The fact is she had more credibility and reputattion than these guys and still does.

ebogentle:

@Katsumoto. Permit me to make an observation regarding one of your earlier posts. Now I am no economist and I am not doubting the importance of micro-economics in the kitty of any would-be CBN Governor. In fact I am in the field where the same quantitative/mathematical models used in physics are easily applicable in Micro-economics. However my observation has to do with the way you played down "Risk management" as unimportant especially since that is the area where SLS has carved a niche for himself. Luckily again, my mathematical background allows me to see stats and probability as applied to Risk generally.
I  do not know but are you willing to allow for the fact that the institutions that collapsed during the last recession (in fact during any recession) could have used a little help from Risk Management. I mean what did the banks think would happen when they started giving mortgages to people who ordinarily defaulted on smaller credits (abi what is the concept of sub-prime lending?)
I rather think that risk management should have played an even bigger role (than it currently does) right from time. Common sense tells me that an industry(banking) that  has risk as an essential part of its operations would benefit a lot from someone who perhaps made his name from risk management. I even think that was the reason he could spot some of the things you claimed are impossible to spot within two months of being on saddle.
Please let me know your take on this. Like I said before, I am not an economist but I am very perceptive(totally my opinion. lol)

Interesting comments

There is a difference between micro-economics and macro-economics. Macro deals with the big picture; how different aspects of the economy are pieced together while micro-economics deals with specifics. Because there are so many aspects in an economy, a central banker can not be concerned with all minute details of the economy. But a central banker is supposed to be an expert on macro-economics which deals with ensuring overall price stability, inflation, labour and unemployment, monetary policy, growth, etc. Micro economics deals with inefficient markets, allocation of resources, and market failures. Risk management which is part of how an organisation manages risk is part of micro-economics.

Its like saying that a CEO should know how the uniforms of canteen staff are chosen when he should be concerned with setting the vision, formulating strategy, and managing control of resources. No knowledge is wasted and as such SLSs expertise in Risk Management could be useful in his position but unless he is a winch, there is no way a new Governor would have known about the liquidity issues in some banks and perfected a solution within two months of assuming office. His handling of it was too excessive when was diplomacy and dexterity were required. He alarmed the markets unnecessarily causing stocks to crash and Nigerian enterprises to lose their lines of credit.

manny4life:


I know u're not asking me but I if u may let me diffuse some of the thought on here. Risk Management isn't only special when dealing with banks but in all forms of business even manufacturing. The questions isn't about risk; business as part of their operations assume risk, question is how much risk? In addition to that, how to mitigate such greater risk. When banks loan money to you for mortgages, their money is tied up in that mortgage hence they have equity on that mortgage, what collapsed the banking  and mortgage wasn't because banks gave loans to people who cannot afford it, but simply those mortgages were used to back up other securities transaction (this is a lil complex).


When recession hit, people were laid off and as a reason couldn't pay mortgage, banks were tied up and could not fulfill their securities contract, that's how the housing bubble broke. IMO Risk Management is the least thing on the mind of a CBN governor, Risk management isn'ta macroeconomic factor the gov should be worried about. If the banks fell, CBN bails them out, but instead Sanusi did something entirely.

Correct

Katsumoto:

He studied economics and then went to study Islamic and Sharia Studies for 6 years. Don't you think he would have lost much of his knowledge and skill with such a long hiatus? Can you name any other personality in such a high profile role with such a similar hiatus?

Let's leave the hiatus aspect of this.

Let's talk about credibility, experience, impact, etc.

@Manny4life
Thanks for your posts. I understood everything you said. Nothing was complex there. But again it begs the question. Why would any sane institution use "essentially bad debts" to back other securities and thus heating up the system. Maybe it is because they ignored the warnings of the risk managers or they did not have one.
So you are of the opinion that CBN should just bail the banks out and mind its own business as to why the banks are failing? That seems to me like a model designed to fail since it rewards excesses and escessive risk without question.

Why did you say risk management isn't macroeconomics?

I am waiting.

ola olabiy:

That's the word, Kats .
Credibility is the word. And, in terms of this, there is a gulf between him and Soludo or that idio.t called Aganga.

Axel Weber resigned and went to Switzerland to chair a mere investment bank.
The fact is she had more credibility and reputattion than these guys and still does.

Credibility in this sense relates to popularity; don't get it twisted. The Europeans needed a big name.

ola olabiy:

Let's leave the hiatus aspect of this.

Let's talk about credibility, experience, impact, etc.

Why should we leave the hiatus? A worker who doesn't work for a year becomes structurally unemployable and must re-skill. You should know this. What re-skilling did SLS do after his Islamic Studies? Why should a worker who is unemployed for one year be structurally unemployable while one is unemployed for 6 years not be required to retrain?

What was his experience? At 48, he only had 12 years experience plus he hadn't headed any body (public or private) at the time he was nominated by Yaradua. He was nominated by Yaradua in January 2009, the same time he got the First Bank Job.

I will come to credibility later when I delve into Islamic Banking.

ola olabiy:

Why did you say risk management isn't macroeconomics?

I am waiting.

Stop waiting; Risk Management isn't part of macro-economics. I stated it; prove me wrong.

Like Manny stated, risk management is part of every organisation. It concerns issues such payments to creditors, payments from debtors, incentives to clients. That is all micro-economics.

@manny4life: He got his undergrad in econ btw, not islamic studies.

kalokalo:

Soludo is definitely sharper than Bernanke. Why all the inferiority complex with Nigerians

What is your basis for saying this?

Is recession part of macroeconomics or not?

Read this:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5411

Want more from the world bank?

manny4life:


I know u're not asking me but I if u may let me diffuse some of the thought on here. Risk Management isn't only special when dealing with banks but in all forms of business even manufacturing. The questions isn't about risk; business as part of their operations assume risk, question is how much risk? In addition to that, how to mitigate such greater risk. When banks loan money to you for mortgages, their money is tied up in that mortgage hence they have equity on that mortgage, what collapsed the banking  and mortgage wasn't because banks gave loans to people who cannot afford it, but simply those mortgages were used to back up other securities transaction (this is a lil complex).

When recession hit, people were laid off and as a reason couldn't pay mortgage, banks were tied up and could not fulfill their securities contract, that's how the housing bubble broke. IMO Risk Management is the least thing on the mind of a CBN governor, Risk management isn'ta macroeconomic factor the gov should be worried about. If the banks fell, CBN bails them out, but instead Sanusi did something entirely.

Risk management in banking is actually special. Banks use so much leverage and they are exposed to so may types of risks that are difficult to insure that insurance companies that happily insure most of the assets of a manufacturing companies dare not insure the largest assets held by banks - loans

If risks should be the last thing on the mind of a central bank governor, why do they worry about systemic risk, why do you have stringent regulations for banks, why do they prescribe capital adequacy for banks, why did they talk about asset price bubbles, why have they removed banking regulation from FSA and brought it under BoE, why did Greenspan speak of irrational exuberance?

Banks take monumental risks and their collapse can lead to contagion. Any governor that does not worry about risk management is sitting on a time bomb

ola olabiy:

Is recession part of macroeconomics or not?

Read this:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5411

Hahahaha

That is all covered under price stability and inflation management. There isn't a separate subject or mandate for Central Banks on Risk Management. But I get your point.

Risk management in a manufacturing plant is not the same as in a research lab. Same way as Risk management in a bank isn't the same as Risk Management in a Central Bank.

@Katsumoto
Sorry my bad. I guess I was trying to refer to macroeconomics.Trust me I dont need a lecture on the micro/macro little detail/big picture systems. My calculus background as applied to physical systems gives me an idea. (even though I may be speaking pure sciences here).
Also thanks for making the point that risk management is part of microeconomics and not macroeconomics. I respect that. However, like Ola, I am baffled that risk management is not part of macroeconomic handling. Seems to me what we are saying is that in order to correct the big picture, one has no business looking at the finest details. Maybe due to time constraint. But the facts still remain that errors (including finest detail errors) add up and multiply just like any other kind of data. If a correction can be made at micro level that might bring good results as well. Rather than just putting a plus or minus (emphasis on plus) on the overall answer to correct it. That creates waste in my opinion.
But I realise that it is difficult in most situations to be both effective and efficient. That's what the arguments boil down to in my opinion. A trade-off between these two.

Katsumoto:

Hahahaha

That is all covered under price stability and inflation management. There isn't a separate subject or mandate for Central Banks on Risk Management. But I get your point.

Risk management in a manufacturing plant is not the same as in a research lab. Same way as Risk management in a bank isn't the same as Risk Management in a Central Bank.

Inflation is macroeconomics and does constitute risk to any economy. Thus, the risk associated with it does have to be managed.

In fact, all aspects of macroeconomics have elelments of risk.
I mean ALL!