Election is around the corner and tensions are getting high. I will split my view into two, the present and the future.

The Present
1. Atiku: The southern stance against northern candidate for 2023 has obviously crumbled as many southern leaders are already hustling for VP slot under a northern candidate.

People like Ikpeazu, and Okowa (and perhaps Obaseki) sold the southern chance for VP slot. Something that is now biting them in the as*.

Atiku currently has no hinderance to his chances at the polls. And if he ends up choosing Wike, his chances will increase significantly. Because Wike has more political strength and alliances than Okowa and Ikpeazu combined.

2. Tinubu: Tinubu is a tactician with extensive political tentacles. His emergence as the APC presidential flag bearer against the wish of Buhari has shown his influence in the party.

However, the APC is riddled with controversies. Especially in VP selection. He's between the devil and the deep blue sea. Nigeria population is almost 50-49% between the two major religions. Any group that downgrades that in the 21st century MIGHT be playing with fire.

3. The Third Force: I spent over 3 hours last week looking for my PVC. I am going to vote for one of the people in this category ( name held). However, I personally feel that none of these folks have the chance at the presidency if they continue working separately and throwing tantrums at one another.

To win presidential election in Nigeria, you will need at least 4 zones. Apart from having the majority votes (which I don't see any of them having), you must have at least 25% of the total vote cast in at least 24 states of the federation. The author of the law did that in their wisdom to ensure that nobody would win the election on the account of his tribe, religion or population.

In a perfectly sane society, one of the third force folks ought to be the president of Nigeria. Again, no society is perfectly sane. And there are factors that determine emergence of a person as a president.


The Future
This is my personal forecast. Unfortunately, it's against my wish.
1. I feel APC will crumble due to this VP thing. No matter whom they choose, people will decamp to PDP and sabotage the party because it would go against their interest. The Senate majority leader is an example of what is to come. Even if people don't decamp, after Tinubu choose his VP, it would take just one propaganda to set the system against him. Buhari does not have the political strength of people like OBJ to handle a party like APC. And if people like El Rufai and the likes don't get their way (Moslim-Moslim ticket), chances are they will sabotage Tinubu. If they do, another problem looms.

2. Atiku MIGHT win the election because he would get sympathy votes. His a northern Moslim. And his choosing a southern Christian. Again, emphasis on MIGHT.

3. The third force will not win the election. They lack the structure, the finance, political tacticians etc. If they go to the polls separately, all of them will not have up to 20% of the total vote cast. If they form a coalition (which I doubt), it took CPC and AC many national defeats to realize that their individual strength is like a drop in the mighty ocean, they will create SIGNIFICANT headache for the bigwigs. For one, they will make having 25% in 24 states VERY difficult for any winner.

Powersurge:
Election is around the corner and tensions are getting high. I will split my view into two, the present and the future.

The Present
1. Atiku: The southern stance against northern candidate for 2023 has obviously crumbled as many southern leaders are already hustling for VP slot under a northern candidate.

People like Ikpeazu, and Okowa (and perhaps Obaseki) sold the southern chance for VP slot. Something that is now biting them in the as*.

Atiku currently has no hinderance to his chances at the polls. And if he ends up choosing Wike, his chances will increase significantly. Because Wike has more political strength and alliances than Okowa and Ikpeazu combined.

2. Tinubu: Tinubu is a tactician with extensive political tentacles. His emergence as the APC presidential flag bearer against the wish of Buhari has shown his influence in the party.

However, the APC is riddled with controversies. Especially in VP selection. He's between the devil and the deep blue sea. Nigeria population is almost 50-49% between the two major religions. Any group that downgrades that in the 21st century MIGHT be playing with fire.

3. The Third Force: I spent over 3 hours last week looking for my PVC. I am going to vote for one of the people in this category ( name held). However, I personally feel that none of these folks have the chance at the presidency if they continue working separately and throwing tantrums at one another.

To win presidential election in Nigeria, you will need at least 4 zones. Apart from having the majority votes (which I don't see any of them having), you must have at least 25% of the total vote cast in at least 24 states of the federation. The author of the law did that in their wisdom to ensure that nobody would win the election on the account of his tribe, religion or population.

In a perfectly sane society, one of the third force folks ought to be the president of Nigeria. Again, no society is perfectly sane. And there are factors that determine emergence of a person as a president.


The Future
This is my personal forecast. Unfortunately, it's against my wish.
1. I feel APC will crumble due to this VP thing. No matter whom they choose, people will decamp to PDP and sabotage the party because it would go against their interest. The Senate majority leader is an example of what is to come. Even if people don't decamp, after Tinubu choose his VP, it would take just one propaganda to set the system against him. Buhari does not have the political strength of people like OBJ to handle a party like APC. And if people like El Rufai and the likes don't get their way (Moslim-Moslim ticket), chances are they will sabotage Tinubu. If they do, another problem looms.

2. Atiku MIGHT win the election because he would get sympathy votes. His a northern Moslim. And his choosing a southern Christian. Again, emphasis on MIGHT.

3. The third force will not win the election. They lack the structure, the finance, political tacticians etc. If they go to the polls separately, all of them will not have up to 20% of the total vote cast. If they form a coalition (which I doubt), it took CPC and AC many national defeats to realize that their individual strength is like a drop in the mighty ocean, they will create SIGNIFICANT headache for the bigwigs. For one, they will make having 25% in 24 states VERY difficult for any winner.

Not far from the truth.

That’s why Peter Obi needs an alliance with Kwankwaso so badly.

Apart, they are going nowhere; but united, they will be unstoppable.

It will be a hurricane.

Penguin2:


Not far from the truth.

That’s why Peter Obi needs an alliance with Kwankwaso so badly.

Apart, they are going nowhere; but united, they will be unstoppable.

It will be a hurricane.

.

Choose Wisely

fredwill1357:
Peter Obi should deputize Kwankwaso for one term. What's so difficult about that, in 2027, he will be contesting from the ruling party with the support of the imcubent president Kwankwaso.
Kwankwaso is not as nepotistic or cluesless as Buhari, a 4 years term of a sensible northern president who runs an all inclusive government won't kill us.
If they run separately, they will both lose, forget peter obi online support. Majority of Nigerians are idiots, they will vote for money.

If obi wants to be VP he would be VP for atiku ...so why should he leave PDP and become VP to kwankwaso ?

fredwill1357:
Peter Obi should deputize Kwankwaso for one term. What's so difficult about that, in 2027, he will be contesting from the ruling party with the support of the imcubent president Kwankwaso.
Kwankwaso is not as nepotistic or cluesless as Buhari, a 4 years term of a sensible northern president who runs an all inclusive government won't kill us.
If they run separately, they will both lose, forget peter obi online support. Majority of Nigerians are idiots, they will vote for money.

Election is personally ...vote for who u think it's the best ..not who might win

fredwill1357:
Peter Obi should deputize Kwankwaso for one term. What's so difficult about that, in 2027, he will be contesting from the ruling party with the support of the imcubent president Kwankwaso.
Kwankwaso is not as nepotistic or cluesless as Buhari, a 4 years term of a sensible northern president who runs an all inclusive government won't kill us.
If they run separately, they will both lose, forget peter obi online support. Majority of Nigerians are idiots, they will vote for money.

Firstly, Kwankwaso will not do 4 years. He is a relatively young man. Nobody will taste the presidency and leave it if he still has an opportunity to continue.

Secondly, after 8 years, PO will be 70, and remember he is from the SE. They will not give him the presidential ticket when that time comes. If PO is not willing to play dirty at 61, he will definitely not play dirty at 70.

Thirdly and most important of all, Peter Obis popularity is because he is running for president. Once he takes a vp slot, voter apathy will set in amongst the youths and the SE which is the major support base he is enjoying today. Essentially, a Kwankwaso/Obi ticket cannot win the election, it makes Tinubu the only southerner, and that's straight victory for APC.

Let PO continue what he is doing if Kwankwaso refuses to deputize him. If he loses let him go home. At least, Nigerians would never again say that they have never had an opportunity of voting a good leader.

Igbochief001:

If obi wants to be VP he would be VP for atiku ...so why should he leave PDP and become VP to kwankwaso ?

.

fredwill1357:
Because Kwankwaso is more likely to keep to his word of one term than Atiku. If Obi is not willing to become a VP to a northerner for 1 term, he should forget it, he is not winning.
If buhari could win the 2019 elections with all the damage he has done to this country, that should tell you how worthless and stupid most Nigerians are. I am being realistic here, peter obi won't win the presidency if he comes straight up.

Vote kwankwaso then let's see who wins

fredwill1357:
Peter Obi should deputize Kwankwaso for one term. What's so difficult about that, in 2027, he will be contesting from the ruling party with the support of the imcubent president Kwankwaso.
Kwankwaso is not as nepotistic or cluesless as Buhari, a 4 years term of a sensible northern president who runs an all inclusive government won't kill us.
If they run separately, they will both lose, forget peter obi online support. Majority of Nigerians are idiots, they will vote for money.

After a northerner’s 8 years presidency, will the north die if the south takes over?