Before I start, this prediction was made based on the ethnoreligious diversity of Nigeria and our bias, the performance of the ruling party over 7 years, and the current situation of the country among other factors.

Please, this is for open-minded people. You can decide to make contributions or adjustments.

Nigeria has never been more politically aware and divided based on religion and tribe until this current dispensation. So all that happened In 1993 will not happen today.

Let's start from the NE. This will be between Atiku and Tinubu. Atiku will win this zone. Core Northerners never forget their own, they are giving their votes to Atiku. Buhari isn't in the picture anymore, and the north is tired of the misrule by the current APC government. Tinubu will get some votes here with Kwankwaso. The only way Tinubu may get more votes here is if he picks someone like Kashim shettima as his running mate. But irrespective of that, Atiku will still win the NE. Therefore, it's going to be PDP 50%, APC 30%, NNPP 15%, and LP 5%.

Coming to the NW where we have the Kwankwasiya movement. This is the only zone where NNPP is likely to do better because of Kwankwaso. But still, PDP and APC will pull some strings here. If Kwankwaso remains In the race which I doubt he will, NNPP will do well. It's going to be NNPP 40%, PDP 25%, APC 25%, and LP 5%.

The NC has always been a battleground as we have a lot of swinging states. The four major parties contesting the 2023 presidential election will test their popularity here. I can't see who takes it here. However, this is how I think it will end up PDP 30%, APC 30%, LP 30%, NNPP 10%.

Coming to the SE, this is where LP will be banking. With the recent happenings, Obi is certainly having this zone on lockdown. The only disruption here will be if IPOB decides to hamper the voting process on that day with violence. One might think some states in the SE are governed by PDP and APC governors. This won't affect the outcome. The outcome will be, LP 70%, PDP 20%, and APC 10%.

The SS will be no different from the SE. The voting pattern will be similar. The 2 zones have always been in tandem when it comes to who they vote for in recent times. Though, PDP may do better in this zone. This is what I think the outcome will be, LP 55%, PDP 30%, APC 15%.

Now we move on to the SW where another battle will likely take place. This is the home of Tinubu. However, other parties will come out with something tangible here. APC 40%, LP 30%, PDP 30%.

In the end, PDP will take NE and NC. APC will take SW and NC. LP will take SE, SS, and NC. NNPP will take NW.

Putting all this into perspective, this election will be between PDP and LP. There was a reason why APC wanted the consensus candidate to be Lawan who's from the NE. He would have stood a better chance than Tinubu in trying to win votes for the party. It would have been a lot easier for APC to now pick a southern Christian candidate as his running mate. But now, it's a lot more difficult for APC. And a Muslim Muslim ticket won't do well for them.

Please feel free to voice out your opinion without insults. Let's discuss

In a free and fair election, Obi will carry the day. With Reno's arrogance and insult to south east. PDP won't see shishi vote in south east and south south.

OP slashed Peter Obi’s percentage across the regions and he still won.

Peter Obi is getting nothing less than 15% in NE.

With Datti Baba-Ahmed and Northern Elders Forum about to get to work on Obi case, believe me when I tell you that Obi should come out with nothing less than 25% of votes in NW.

Then Obi should win NC slightly by about 40%.

Score about 80/85% of votes in SE.

60% in SS.

And maybe 25% in Southwest.

2023 is Obi’s to lose.

Obi is the underdog nobody wants to mess with, they know themselves.

They keep saying Lp won't win.
Same way they said Chelsea will never win the champions league.

onez:
In a free and fair election, Obi will carry the day. With Reno's arrogance and insult to south east. PDP won't see shishi vote in south east and south south.

If the election is free and fair, without irregularities like vote buying and what have you, LP will have the upper hand

Penguin2:
OP slashed Peter Obi’s percentage across the regions and he still won.

Peter Obi is getting nothing less than 15% in NE.

With Datti Baba-Ahmed and Northern Elders Forum about to get to work on Obi case, believe me when I tell you that Obi should come out with nothing less than 25% of votes in NW.

Then Obi should win NC slightly by about 40%.

Score about 80/85% of votes in SE.

60% in SS.

And maybe 25% in Southwest.

2023 is Obi’s to lose.

I actually didn't put Datti into consideration during the write up, I forgot. But he'll definitely help bring in some votes. But still, Obi remains unpopular in the core north. The difference Datti will make may not be that remarkable.

luwiizy:
Obi is the underdog nobody wants to mess with, they know themselves.

They keep saying Lp won't win.
Same way they said Chelsea will never win the champions league.

LP shouldn't be overlooked. They talked about a third force, LP are the third force. 2023 will be interesting

kenedy175:


If the election is free and fair, without irregularities like vote buying and what have you, LP will have the upper hand



I actually didn't put Datti into consideration during the write up, I forgot. But he'll definitely help bring in some votes. But still, Obi remains unpopular in the core north. The difference Datti will make may not be that remarkable.



LP shouldn't be overlooked. They talked about a third force, LP are the third force. 2023 will be interesting

Lol!

Have you seen the thread of an Imam campaigning against Tinubu and Atiku?

It’s the prelude to what is coming.

Obasanjo is on Obi’s case.

Northern Elder’s Forum has bought into the Obi project.

Datti is Son-in-law to Gen Aliyu Gusau.

TY Danjuma is a Christian that is tired of what is going on.

Obasanjo was accused of planning to meet IBB for Obi.

When these forces align, Imams will be instructed on what to preach and who to campaign for and you would be surprised at the numbers that will come from the north at the end of the day.

All fake.
All fake.
This OP is clearly deluded.
You analysed the election forgetting that APC controls many of these states and will do whatever it takes to make their party, not tribe, party, to win.

Have you even taken time to understand the meaning of grassroot politics?

Do you think that when the campaign starts, Obi will continue to trend?if yes then my first statement was correct indeed.

Tinubu is a product and project of the northern governors. Tinubu is a destiny child of the South West and in fact, with Ayo Fayose in the basket I can't see any loop hole on Tinubu's total victory in the SW.

You talk about the election forgetting that no true politician can ever trust Peter Obi to the point of working for his victory. He will definitely lose the South South and South East. Was he not in PDP when Apga won Anambra election? Or do you think Apga has no candidate for the presidency? Or do you think there will be no last minute resolution between Tinubu and Apga leaders ? Haven't you seen the handwriting of these South East and South South politicians on the wall? Or is Wike's open identification with APC not any indication to you?

In case you didn't realise it my dear angry youth, the online and offline supporters of Peter Obi are only day dreaming. The real voters are not swayed by your cyber bullying. When push comes to shove, you'll realise what politics is all about. And I trust Tinubu to do his homework very well.

There is a reason APC unanimously voted for Tinubu as their presidential candidate, and that's becasue he knows how to manoeuvre very difficult political terrains and still come out victorious.

In this case, he will.

Obidient4Tinubu:
All fake.
All fake.
This OP is clearly deluded.
You analysed the election forgetting that APC controls many of these states and will do whatever it takes to make their party, not tribe, party, to win.

Have you even taken time to understand the meaning of grassroot politics?

Do you think that when the campaign starts, Obi will continue to trend?if yes then my first statement was correct indeed.

Tinubu is a product and project of the northern governors. Tinubu is a destiny child of the South West and in fact, with Ayo Fayose in the basket I can't see any loop hole on Tinubu's total victory in the SW.

You talk about the election forgetting that no true politician can ever trust Peter Obi to the point of working for his victory. He will definitely lose the South South and South East. Was he not in PDP when Apga won Anambra election? Or do you think Apga has no candidate for the presidency? Or do you think there will be no last minute resolution between Tinubu and Apga leaders ? Haven't you seen the handwriting of these South East and South South politicians on the wall? Or is Wike's open identification with APC not any indication to you?

In case you didn't realise it my dear angry youth, the online and offline supporters of Peter Obi are only day dreaming. The real voters are not swayed by your cyber bullying. When push comes to shove, you'll realise what politics is all about. And I trust Tinubu to do his homework very well.

There is a reason APC unanimously voted for Tinubu as their presidential candidate, and that's becasue he knows how to manoeuvre very difficult political terrains and still come out victorious.

In this case, he will.

Calmly drop your own prediction and go. It's too early to be crying bro

The contest is between APC and LP... Forget PDP they are a goner.. They might not win any state in South.. Except maybe Balyesa because of Ijaw factor... Highest they can win in the North is 7 while App will win 7, Nnpp 3, LP 2+fct.

onez:
In a free and fair election, Obi will carry the day. With Reno's arrogance and insult to south east. PDP won't see shishi vote in south east and south south.

in a free and fair election obi will struggle to win any state outside South East

Ruggedniggaone:
in a free and fair election obi will struggle to win any state outside South East

Peter Obi will comfortably win the SS and NC

For more jokes analysis

LP 70% in SE
LP 55% in SS

Obidient4Tinubu:
All fake.
All fake.
This OP is clearly deluded.
You analysed the election forgetting that APC controls many of these states and will do whatever it takes to make their party, not tribe, party, to win.

Have you even taken time to understand the meaning of grassroot politics?

Do you think that when the campaign starts, Obi will continue to trend?if yes then my first statement was correct indeed.

Tinubu is a product and project of the northern governors. Tinubu is a destiny child of the South West and in fact, with Ayo Fayose in the basket I can't see any loop hole on Tinubu's total victory in the SW.

You talk about the election forgetting that no true politician can ever trust Peter Obi to the point of working for his victory. He will definitely lose the South South and South East. Was he not in PDP when Apga won Anambra election? Or do you think Apga has no candidate for the presidency? Or do you think there will be no last minute resolution between Tinubu and Apga leaders ? Haven't you seen the handwriting of these South East and South South politicians on the wall? Or is Wike's open identification with APC not any indication to you?

In case you didn't realise it my dear angry youth, the online and offline supporters of Peter Obi are only day dreaming. The real voters are not swayed by your cyber bullying. When push comes to shove, you'll realise what politics is all about. And I trust Tinubu to do his homework very well.

There is a reason APC unanimously voted for Tinubu as their presidential candidate, and that's becasue he knows how to manoeuvre very difficult political terrains and still come out victorious.

In this case, he will.

Bro, the forces against APC is much. If you read my intro, you'll see the basis of my prediction. Nigeria as it is today is very polarized.

APC didn't perform well in the last 7years. The region that suffered most under APC is the North. If it's not for the politicians in Northern Nigeria, the populace are not voting for Tinubu.

You really think Tinubu was the preferred candidate for APC?? Why do you think the Lawan drama started? APC thought they can't retain power with anyone other than someone from the the north. Let's imagine Lawan was the flag bearer and maybe Amechi was his running mate. Don't you think they stand a better chance?

Everyone is trying to draw Wike to their side. Wike hasn't identified with any party yet. Will you say because Obi went to visit wike, the he has identified with LP? So because some APC governors went to see him, then he has identified with APC? No now.

From what you're saying, you mean states like Imo and Ebonyi will be won by APC because they have APC governors? Or states like Delta, Akwaibom will be won by PDP because they have PDP governors?

2023 will be interesting. There'll be a lot of changes

Penguin2:


Lol!

Have you seen the thread of an Imam campaigning against Tinubu and Atiku?

It’s the prelude to what is coming.

Obasanjo is on Obi’s case.

Northern Elder’s Forum has bought into the Obi project.

Datti is Son-in-law to Gen Aliyu Gusau.

TY Danjuma is a Christian that is tired of what is going on.

Obasanjo was accused of planning to meet IBB for Obi.

When these forces align, Imams will be instructed on what to preach and who to campaign for and you would be surprised at the numbers that will come from the north at the end of the day.

These are all political elites. I see 2023 elections going beyond these people. 2023 elections is fully in the hands of the populace. These elites you mentioned wouldn't make so much of a difference for Obi in the north

PaChukwudi44:

Peter Obi will comfortably win the SS and NC

that is mere imagination honestly

kenedy175:


These are all political elites. I see 2023 elections going beyond these people. 2023 elections is fully in the hands of the populace. These elites you mentioned wouldn't make so much of a difference for Obi in the north

As much as I believe this, the attitude of northern voters would make that thinking not entirely true.

You know why? Because most of them rely on the direction of Imams to cast their votes.

I was on BBC Hausa yesterday and majority of them on the comments section were leaving things to Allah. That’s where Imams come in. Because these Imams will now be used to tell those ones that are waiting for Allah’s direction to vote for a particular candidate.

What this means is that in the north, the contest goes down, largely, to who has more Imams preaching his case in northern mosques.

Now, when you realize that most of these Imams are loyal to most of the elites, then you’d realize the role that the elites will play in deciding when northern votes will go.

This is totally unlike southern voters who largely have mind of their own and might not necessarily wait for the direction of their pastor or any elite before they make their decision.

Obidient4Tinubu:
All fake.
All fake.
This OP is clearly deluded.
You analysed the election forgetting that APC controls many of these states and will do whatever it takes to make their party, not tribe, party, to win.

Have you even taken time to understand the meaning of grassroot politics?

Do you think that when the campaign starts, Obi will continue to trend?if yes then my first statement was correct indeed.

Tinubu is a product and project of the northern governors. Tinubu is a destiny child of the South West and in fact, with Ayo Fayose in the basket I can't see any loop hole on Tinubu's total victory in the SW.

You talk about the election forgetting that no true politician can ever trust Peter Obi to the point of working for his victory. He will definitely lose the South South and South East. Was he not in PDP when Apga won Anambra election? Or do you think Apga has no candidate for the presidency? Or do you think there will be no last minute resolution between Tinubu and Apga leaders ? Haven't you seen the handwriting of these South East and South South politicians on the wall? Or is Wike's open identification with APC not any indication to you?

In case you didn't realise it my dear angry youth, the online and offline supporters of Peter Obi are only day dreaming. The real voters are not swayed by your cyber bullying. When push comes to shove, you'll realise what politics is all about. And I trust Tinubu to do his homework very well.

There is a reason APC unanimously voted for Tinubu as their presidential candidate, and that's becasue he knows how to manoeuvre very difficult political terrains and still come out victorious.

In this case, he will.

You are so out of touch with reality.

Penguin2:


As much as I believe this, the attitude of northern voters would make that thinking not entirely true.

You know why? Because most of them rely on the direction of Imams to cast their votes.

I was on BBC Hausa yesterday and majority of them on the comments section were leaving things to Allah. That’s where Imams come in. Because these Imams will now be used to tell those ones that are waiting for Allah’s direction to vote for a particular candidate.

What this means is that in the north, the contest goes down, largely, to who has more Imams preaching his case in northern mosques.

Now, when you realize that most of these Imams are loyal to most of the elites, then you’d realize the role that the elites will play in deciding when northern votes will go.

This is totally unlike southern voters who largely have mind of their own and might not necessarily wait for the direction of their pastor or any elite before they make their decision.

Yeah! I understand where you're coming from. You have a strong point there. A good number of enlightened northern youths when asked who they'll vote for rather say they leave it to God. They are undecided because they know they just had their 8 years which didn't end well. Such people could be swayed towards Obi. But how many of such do we have? But still, the preachings of the Muslim clerics will determine alot

kenedy175:
Before I start, this prediction was made based on the ethnoreligious diversity of Nigeria and our bias, the performance of the ruling party over 7 years, and the current situation of the country among other factors.

Please, this is for open-minded people. You can decide to make contributions or adjustments.

Nigeria has never been more politically aware and divided based on religion and tribe until this current dispensation. So all that happened In 1993 will not happen today.

Let's start from the NE. This will be between Atiku and Tinubu. Atiku will win this zone. Core Northerners never forget their own, they are giving their votes to Atiku. Buhari isn't in the picture anymore, and the north is tired of the misrule by the current APC government. Tinubu will get some votes here with Kwankwaso. The only way Tinubu may get more votes here is if he picks someone like Kashim shettima as his running mate. But irrespective of that, Atiku will still win the NE. Therefore, it's going to be PDP 50%, APC 30%, NNPP 15%, and LP 5%.

Coming to the NW where we have the Kwankwasiya movement. This is the only zone where NNPP is likely to do better because of Kwankwaso. But still, PDP and APC will pull some strings here. If Kwankwaso remains In the race which I doubt he will, NNPP will do well. It's going to be NNPP 40%, PDP 25%, APC 25%, and LP 5%.

The NC has always been a battleground as we have a lot of swinging states. The four major parties contesting the 2023 presidential election will test their popularity here. I can't see who takes it here. However, this is how I think it will end up PDP 30%, APC 30%, LP 30%, NNPP 10%.

Coming to the SE, this is where LP will be banking. With the recent happenings, Obi is certainly having this zone on lockdown. The only disruption here will be if IPOB decides to hamper the voting process on that day with violence. One might think some states in the SE are governed by PDP and APC governors. This won't affect the outcome. The outcome will be, LP 70%, PDP 20%, and APC 10%.

The SS will be no different from the SE. The voting pattern will be similar. The 2 zones have always been in tandem when it comes to who they vote for in recent times. Though, PDP may do better in this zone. This is what I think the outcome will be, LP 55%, PDP 30%, APC 15%.

Now we move on to the SW where another battle will likely take place. This is the home of Tinubu. However, other parties will come out with something tangible here. APC 40%, LP 30%, PDP 30%.

In the end, PDP will take NE and NC. APC will take SW and NC. LP will take SE, SS, and NC. NNPP will take NW.

Putting all this into perspective, this election will be between PDP and LP. There was a reason why APC wanted the consensus candidate to be Lawan who's from the NE. He would have stood a better chance than Tinubu in trying to win votes for the party. It would have been a lot easier for APC to now pick a southern Christian candidate as his running mate. But now, it's a lot more difficult for APC. And a Muslim Muslim ticket won't do well for them.

Please feel free to voice out your opinion without insults. Let's discuss

Here is another social media analyst on the loose.

Let's start from the NW, what impact did kwankwaso make in the previous elections in NW generally? In 2019, the APC won in NW, getting 72% of the votes while Kwakwanso/PDP only managed to get 27% of the votes. If Kwakwanso and his PDP then struggled to get 27% of the votes, what has changed that would give him (NNPP alone) 40% even when PDP has its own presidential candidate? Your reasoning that the north would only vote for a northerner is pedestrian, to say the least. So in your mind, an El-Rufai (a politician) would tell his supporters to vote for NNPP or PDP because the person contesting under his party is a Yoruba man? What can be more foolish than this? You need to understand politics first before you can make any projections.

Other projections you made are as wrong as the first one because the premise on which you built them is amateurish.

kenedy175:


Yeah! I understand where you're coming from. You have a strong point there. A good number of enlightened northern youths when asked who they'll vote for rather say they leave it to God. They are undecided because they know they just had their 8 years which didn't end well. Such people could be swayed towards Obi. But how many of such do we have? But still, the preachings of the Muslim clerics will determine alot

Obi doesn’t need to win in Northwest and Northeast.

The aim is to get him to consolidate on his strongholds of Southeast, Southsouth and North Ceentral and grab some 25% from Northwest and Northeast. Plus about 30% in Southwest (due to Christian voters) and he’s good to go.

Nobody is planning to make Obi win the core north, no.

OsunOriginal:


Here is another social media analyst on the loose.

Let's start from the NW, what impact did kwankwaso make in the previous elections in NW generally? In 2019, the APC won in NW, getting 72% of the votes while Kwakwanso/PDP only managed to get 27% of the votes. If Kwakwanso and his PDP then struggled to get 27% of the votes, what has changed that would give him (NNPP alone) 40% even when PDP has its own presidential candidate? Your reasoning that the north would only vote for a northerner is pedestrian, to say the least. So in your mind, an El-Rufai (a politician) would tell his supporters to vote for NNPP or PDP because the person contesting under his party is a Yoruba man? What can be more foolish than this? You need to understand politics first before you can make any projections.

Other projections you made are as wrong as the first one because the premise on which you built them is amateurish.

Very true

kenedy175:


Yeah! I understand where you're coming from. You have a strong point there. A good number of enlightened northern youths when asked who they'll vote for rather say they leave it to God. They are undecided because they know they just had their 8 years which didn't end well. Such people could be swayed towards Obi. But how many of such do we have? But still, the preachings of the Muslim clerics will determine alot

I like your analysis but I saw many flaws.ne dont like atiku,he lost there woefully and will lose again.tinubu will win nw slightly.if se will vote obi massively,sw will vote tinubu 60%.ss will be like 35 35 25 5%

Penguin2:


Obi doesn’t need to win in Northwest and Northeast.

The aim is to get him to consolidate on his strongholds of Southeast, Southsouth and North Ceentral and grab some 25% from Northwest and Northeast. Plus about 30% in Southwest (due to Christian voters) and he’s good to go.

Nobody is planning to make Obi win the core north, no.

When did the North Central become Peter Obi stronghold? The same North Central we have states like Kwara, Kogi etc? Are you high on Mkpurumiri this morning Emeka?

ObosiLandlord:
When did the North Central become Peter Obi stronghold? The same North Central we have states like Kwara, Kogi etc? Are you high on Mkpurumiri this morning Emeka?

Swerve

Penguin2:


Swerve

Swerve with your mumu opinion too. Go dey tell your fellow biaflans your mumu talk on top una groups for Facebook and Twitter

Not here in Nairaland

You are learner.

onez:
In a free and fair election, Obi will carry the day. With Reno's arrogance and insult to south east. PDP won't see shishi vote in south east and south south.

Are u d mouthpiece of South south? PDP will win South south, maybe not South east....

garfield1:


I like your analysis but I saw many flaws.ne dont like atiku,he lost there woefully and will lose again.tinubu will win nw slightly.if se will vote obi massively,sw will vote tinubu 60%.ss will be like 35 35 25 5%

Yes, Atiku has always lost in the NE. That was because the North had someone who they felt represented them well in the person of Buhari. Buhari was like a demi god in the north. But as it is now, the person who seems to represent the north well is Atiku. Atiku seems to be the most acceptable "northern muslim" at the moment.

SW is not as polarized as SE. SE doesn't have as much non indigenous in it compared to SW. Tinubu will still take SW but the other parties will do well there.

And like I said, SS and SE are almost always in tandem. PDP may do well in the SS but definitely not APC.

As for the NW, don't forget Kwankwaso factor. However, I feel Kwankwaso will drop out from the race to support either Apc or pdp

Penguin2:


Obi doesn’t need to win in Northwest and Northeast.

The aim is to get him to consolidate on his strongholds of Southeast, Southsouth and North Centraland grab some 25% from Northwest and Northeast. Plus about 30% in Southwest (due to Christian voters) and he’s good to go.

Nobody is planning to make Obi win the core north, no.

Actually! Obi must not win the NE and NW to become president as long as he gets a considerable vote from there. Jonathan lost all the northern states in 2011 but still won Buhari

kenedy175:


Yes, Atiku has always lost in the NE. That was because the North had someone who they felt represented them well in the person of Buhari. Buhari was like a demi god in the north. But as it is now, the person who seems to represent the north well is Atiku. Atiku seems to be the most acceptable "northern muslim" at the moment.

SW is not as polarized as SE. SE doesn't have as much non indigenous in it compared to SW. Tinubu will still take SW but the other parties will do well there.

And like I said, SS and SE are almost always in tandem. PDP may do well in the SS but definitely not APC.

As for the NW, don't forget Kwankwaso factor. However, I feel Kwankwaso will drop out from the race to support either Apc or pdp

Kwankwaso might be overrated so dont rate him above kano..ss is moving away from se.apc is getting strong in ss,almost as Strong as pdp.in ss,party structure decides votes not popularity