Is this too early to say It is Impossible?

I was having a conversation with someone this morning & we were looking at the Osun polls. Judging from the Osun state elections, it shows that APC still has strong votes of 375,027 in total, while Adeleke's PDP had 403,371 votes. Most of this same people, if not all will still vote for APC in the coming general elections, meanwhile the other votes might be scattered in the other parties including Labour Party. Yussuff Lasun, the LP candidate, came a distant fifth with 2,729 votes, representing about 0.34 per cent of the total valid votes, according to the results released by INEC.

APC lost on 100,000+ votes, meanwhile Bola Tinubu has decided to go with all Muslim-Muslim ticket, against all odds, Ignoring Northern Youths warnings.

Two Questions:

1/ Realistically, can Bola Tinubu actually win this Election, and on what metrics?

2/ Does the Osun State outcome by Labour Party a verdict on presidential ambition, is there any hope?

Atiku of PDP will surely be voted by the North, so no questions asked about this.

Even TinieOnugbu knows he can't win but wants to bank on Trial and error method

Personally, on a scale of 1 - 10, he's a good 6.

Obi should win, but the Nigerian reality will disagree.

truthsayer009:
Is this too early to say It is Impossible?

I was having a conversation with someone this morning & we were looking at the Osun polls. Judging from the Osun state elections, it shows that APC still has strong votes of 375,027 in total, while Adeleke's PDP had 403,371 votes. Most of this same people, if not all will still vote for APC in the coming general elections, meanwhile the other votes might be scattered in the other parties including Labour Party. Yussuff Lasun, the LP candidate, came a distant fifth with 2,729 votes, representing about 0.34 per cent of the total valid votes, according to the results released by INEC.

APC lost on 100,000+ votes, meanwhile Bola Tinubu has decided to go with all Muslim-Muslim ticket, against all odds, Ignoring Northern Youths warnings.

Two Questions:

1/ Realistically, can Bola Tinubu actually win this Election, and on what metrics?

2/ Does the Osun State outcome by Labour Party a verdict on presidential ambition, is there any hope?

Atiku of PDP will surely be voted by the North, so no questions asked about this.

Tinubu is your next President.

Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

I doubt you're aware of of present happenings.

RealTalkNoBull:
Tinubu is your next President.

The sooner they know this, the less heartache for them next year.

RealTalkNoBull:
Tinubu is your next President.

He will only rule Yoruba Moslems and their 30 fake bishops.

A blind BAT can't rule this great country

Joey4321:


I doubt you're aware of of present happenings.

I'm aware of present anti-Tinubu propaganda on social media.

Wait till September, then you will know why Tinubu is a political genius, and why his opponents are wasting time with their social media clout.

truthsayer009:
Is this too early to say It is Impossible?

I was having a conversation with someone this morning & we were looking at the Osun polls. Judging from the Osun state elections, it shows that APC still has strong votes of 375,027 in total, while Adeleke's PDP had 403,371 votes. Most of this same people, if not all will still vote for APC in the coming general elections, meanwhile the other votes might be scattered in the other parties including Labour Party. Yussuff Lasun, the LP candidate, came a distant fifth with 2,729 votes, representing about 0.34 per cent of the total valid votes, according to the results released by INEC.

APC lost on 100,000+ votes, meanwhile Bola Tinubu has decided to go with all Muslim-Muslim ticket, against all odds, Ignoring Northern Youths warnings.

Two Questions:

1/ Realistically, can Bola Tinubu actually win this Election, and on what metrics?

2/ Does the Osun State outcome by Labour Party a verdict on presidential ambition, is there any hope?

Atiku of PDP will surely be voted by the North, so no questions asked about this.

1. Yes. State elections are different from federal. While Buhari was sweeping Northern states for APC, PDP was winning some Governorship like in Bauchi amd Sokoto

So I expect all SW states to deliver for Tinubu. Plus Niger Kwara Kogi Nasarawa, 3 states in NE and 4 states in NW. 6 + 4+ 4 + 3 = 17 states.

I expect Obi to sweep all SE states and maybe 1 SS states = 7 states

Atiku wins 5 SS states, 3 NE states Benue and Plateau in NC and 1 NW state = 12 states

The only thing that will stop Tinubu presidency is if Obi and Atiku merge

2. No hope for Labor. They will finish a distant 3rd behind PDP and APC and they can not get 25% in 25 states

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

You are not wise.

Kwankwaso will be taking a bulk of old Buhari voters. He is not playing any spoiler to Atiku but to Buhari's 12 million voters.

You must be naive to think Tinubu will win Katsina and Zamfara. Those two states don't want to see APC today.

Buhari is currently the most hated president in the those state today. Travel, una no gree.

If you think Igala will vote for APC, then you are not wise.

Tinubu will not get any vote in SS with his Moslem Moslem VP.

The path is even clearer for Obi than Tinubu, a Yoruba fake Moslem.

raumdeuter:


1. Yes. State elections are different from federal. While Buhari was sweeping Northern states for APC, PDP was sweeping some Governorship like in Bauchi.

So I expect all SW states to deliver for Tinubu. Plus Niger Kwara Kogi Nasarawa, 3 states in NE and 4 states in NW. 6 + 4+ 4 + 3 = 17 states.

I expect Obi to sweep all SE states and maybe 1 SS states = 7 states

Atiku wins 5 SS states, 3 NE states Benue and Plateau in NC and 1 NW state = 12 states

The only thing that will stop Tinubu presidency is if Obi and Atiku merge

2. No hope for Labor. They will finish a distant 3rd behind PDP and APC and they can not get 25% in 25 states

Very similar analysis.

Very objective also.

Joey4321:


I doubt you're aware of of present happenings.

present happening in only se and maybee ss?
Have you seen sw or northeners doing your rubbish obi nonsense in their regions.

Joey4321:


I doubt you're aware of present happenings.

There is no present happening. All the orchestrated noise has no impact on him.

Throwback:


Very similar analysis.

Very objective also.

It's analysis based on numbers and not emotions

Outside Social Media APC knows their main opponent is PDP that's why Tinubu picked Shettima to counter Atiku in NE and stop him from a clean sweep

This is why Reno and Deji have been trying to tell Obi people to step down

Obi is taking those people who would never vote Tinubu and would have voted Atiku. So Rise of Labor is hurting PDP more

Kwankwaso Obi and Atiku were all in PDP in 2019. Now 3 of them are contesting and sharing those votes

When you want to unseat a ruling party to combine resources and make alliance not fragmenting your support

I know they will insult me but doesn't take away from the facts

Most times I laugh when I see Tinubu's SW supporters claiming that he (Tinubu) would sweep northern votes.

Since the history of Nigerian elections, the only Southerner to ever receive massive northern support is Obsanjo, and the reason why the north rallied around him was because he was in the military and since it was the military who conducted the elections in 1999, they decided to support their own. Secondly the north felt they've been unfair to yourbas. Remember Abiola had just died the previous year (1998) and tensions were rising so they just decided to allow the yourbas rule.

Since then, they've never backed any Southerner. When Jonathan won the presidential election in 2011 he had the whole southern support plus a handful of NC Christian states. The core north didn't vote for him. And the reason why he lost in 2015 is that the SW who voted for him in 2011, formed an alliance with the north and voted massively for Buhari leaving him with only the SE and SS. That's why he lost.

If Tinubu is thinking that the north would choose him over Atiku and Kwankwaso, he had better wake up from his slumber. Aside the SW and NC States like Kogi and Kwara, it would be very difficult for him to win any other northern state.

The kaduna they're projecting has El-Rufai who feels jilted for not being selected as Tinubu's running mate and might play the nonchalant role by secretly working for Atiku leaving the Southern Christian section to vote for Peter Obi and the northern part to be shared between Atiku and Kwankwaso.

The Brono he's projecting Bloc votes from are secretly rallying around Atiku, and the Northern Christians who would have given him massive support if he had picked any of them as running mate would either join forces with Atiku or Peter Obi.

The SS and SE would be where he would record the worst performance cos in SE states like Imo and Ebony who have APC governors, the governor of imo isn't performing and no imolite would want to have anything to do with APC because of him, and that of Ebonyi is in crisis and on the verge of leaving the party to pursue his Senatoral career in another party.

The SS has only one sitting governor the governor of cross river state and he's facing the same crisis the governor of Ebonyi is facing. So it's most likely that he'll decamp from APC as well so as to pursue his Senatoral career.

This technically means that tinubu has almost zero votes from the SE and SS, he would struggle with PDP and LP for votes in the SW and loose massively in the whole north. So tell me how he's going to become the next president.

The mystery about Tinubu I'm still trying to understand is how can you be a Muslim and say because you want northern votes you select a Muslim VP? Is it that the north doesn't recognize yourba Muslims are geninue Muslims?

Cos in Christianity whether you're from the south or north as long as you confess Jesus as the son of God and believe in him, you'll be accepted wherever you go.

Tinubu's rejection by the northern caliphate that he had to choose another northern Muslim to appease them is a slap on the face of yourbas and if they're smart they'll emancipate themselves from the north and stop attacking their fellow Southerners just to please them.

raumdeuter:


It's analysis based on numbers and not emotions

Outside Social Media APC knows their main opponent is PDP that's why Tinubu picked Shettima to counter Atiku in NE and stop him from a clean sweep

This is why Reno and Deji have been trying to tell Obi people to step down

Obi is taking those people who would never vote Tinubu and would have voted Atiku. So Rise of Labor is hurting PDP more

Kwankwaso Obi and Atiku were all in PDP in 2019. Now 3 of them are contesting and sharing those votes

When you want to unseat a ruling party to combine resources and make alliance not fragmenting your support

I know they will insult me but doesn't take away from the facts

Pure facts!

They are doing the opposite of what APC did to unseat PDP from federal power.

APC was a political fusion in 2013 with ACN, CPC, ANPP and Imo APGA. While PDP is currently having a political fission in 2022 with Kwankwaso NNPP and Obi LP being the splinter from the main.

IamAtikulate:

You are not wise.

Kwankwaso will be taking a bulk of old Buhari voters. He is not playing any spoiler to Atiku but to Buhari's 12 million voters.

You must be naive to think Tinubu will win Katsina and Zamfara. Those two states don't want to see APC today.

Buhari is currently the most hated president in the those state today. Travel, una no gree.

If you think Igala will vote for APC, then you are not wise.

Tinubu will not get any vote in SS with his Moslem Moslem VP.

The path is even clearer for Obi than Tinubu, a Yoruba fake Moslem.

Who told you katsina and zamfara do not want to vote tinubu? Those states are full of insecurity and therefore federal forces will dominate.the state is totally apc,pdp has no chance there.by the way,a lot of rigging takes place in those states.bloc votes for tinubu...

Tinubu will get 25% in all ss states.ebuiras and okuns will vote tinubu,igalas will share votes

raumdeuter:


It's analysis based on numbers and not emotions

Outside Social Media APC knows their main opponent is PDP that's why Tinubu picked Shettima to counter Atiku in NE and stop him from a clean sweep

This is why Reno and Deji have been trying to tell Obi people to step down

Obi is taking those people who would never vote Tinubu and would have voted Atiku. So Rise of Labor is hurting PDP more

Kwankwaso Obi and Atiku were all in PDP in 2019. Now 3 of them are contesting and sharing those votes

When you want to unseat a ruling party to combine resources and make alliance not fragmenting your support

I know they will insult me but doesn't take away from the facts

Gbam...cc fergie001, ojuntana,majole,kyase

Throwback:


Pure facts!

They are doing the opposite of what APC did to unseat PDP from federal power.

APC was a political fusion in 2013 with ACN, CPC, ANPP and Imo APGA. While PDP is currently having a political fission in 2022 with Kwankwaso NNPP and Obi LP being the splinter from the main.

Kai,where have you guys been na? All these obi urchins have overran nairaland with their emotionally driven,amateurish analysis

garfield1:


Kai,where have you guys been na? All these obi urchins have overran nairaland with their emotionally driven,amateurish analysis

Even in a brutal sport like boxing, you must learn to receive blows to weaken your opponent.

With the right body shots, your opponent become physically castrated, then you go for the kill.

Throwback:


Even in a brutal sport like boxing, you must learn to receive blows to weaken your opponent.

With the right body shots, your opponent become physically castrated, then you go for the kill.

That was my tactics back in secondary.I usually allow my opponents to tire out before counter attacking.obi might not even win all the se states

Throwback:



I'm aware of present anti-Tinubu propaganda on social media.

Wait till September, then you will know why Tinubu is a political genius, and why his opponents are wasting time with their social media clout.

Ok

ASAPFERG1:
present happening in only se and maybee ss?
Have you seen sw or northeners doing your rubbish obi nonsense in their regions.

To say the truth. I can't feel the northern support for him except a few Twitter savvy bitterness.

But I can see some little SW response

tinsel:

There is no present happening. All the orchestrated noise has no impact on him.

Okay I hope so. The church themselves seemed to have turned their backs on him.

Isn't that a problem?

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

Political analysts u try, e go do you vam for eye that day

From the posts .. you will understand that Apc online yoruba people are not ground ..

How will Apc win Northwest.. when their politicians keeps decamping to pdp en mass ?

Apc win Niger Benue kaduna Jos, Na Dream .. abi hallucinations

Why not visit these state .. from the capital and move slowly towards the outskirts and understand what is happening

You people will be in the south and be permutating Una hallucinations.. when every reality on ground daily Dey prove Una wrong

Honestly how I wish northerners plenty for this forum to clear and jonzing

By 2023 yoruba go understand that media permutations and propaganda is different reality
Tinubu will not win up to 3 states in Nigeria outside Yoruba land
And might not even win up to 3 states in Yorubaland

Power to the people
North 2023

E go clear

Waziri has no opposition to 2023 Presidency

Tinubu is not even an option to the northerners

Maybe some of this monikers writing rubbish should leave social media and nairaland and come over and understand how stupid the Yoruba god is

But since they can’t ... make we all wait for 2023

Aregbe is the new Yoruba Leader

You heard it here

North always make Yoruba leaders and god since independence and post..

Joey4321:


Okay I hope so. The church themselves seemed to have turned their backs on him.

Isn't that a problem?

Don't worry about paid politicians in the church. I am a knight in the church and I will vote according to my conscience and not based on any religious sentiments and so also millions of other Christians.

Throwback:
Campaign never even start.

I expect Tinubu to sweep all 6 states of SouthWest, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Zamfara.

If he wins those 16 states and takes 35% in all other Northern states he loses, he takes majority votes nationally.

He then takes 25% in Edo, Delta, Akwa-Ibom and Cross-River and that puts him over the 24 states out of 36 states he needs to score minimum of 25% of votes cast to avoid any runoff.

With Peter Obi playing his spoiler role for PDP as planned in the South, while Kwankwaso does same to PDP in the North, the path is clear for Tinubu to actualize a life ambition he was patient enough to pursue without political prostitution or opportunism that has dogged the Atiku and Obi campaign.

Sweep all southwest lmao...like he sweep Osun state the previous week bah?? Una too dey over rate tinubu...lmao

garfield1:


Who told you katsina and zamfara do not want to vote tinubu? Those states are full of insecurity and therefore federal forces will dominate.the state is totally apc,pdp has no chance there.by the way,a lot of rigging takes place in those states.bloc votes for tinubu...

Tinubu will get 25% in all ss states.ebuiras and okuns will vote tinubu,igalas will share votes

Rigging? You obviously learnt nothing from the Osun elections

Joey4321:


To say the truth. I can't feel the northern support for him except a few Twitter savvy bitterness.

But I can see some little SW response

Allow those urchins to keep projecting him winning NW when two prominent northerners are also in the race.

Fulanis will leave their brothers to vote a Yoruba man.Story for the gods

The problem is you Igbo analysis is that you project your Igbotic failure unto others. Tinubu will beta both Kwakwaso n Atiku in many Northern state. Tinubu will win Atiku in both Borno n Katsina handsomely. The others state I do not have a project for those but Igbo hatred of Nigeria can not n will not be transferred on Tinubu.

Nazgul:
Most times I laugh when I see Tinubu's SW supporters claiming that he (Tinubu) would sweep northern votes.

Since the history of Nigerian elections, the only Southerner to ever receive massive northern support is Obsanjo, and the reason why the north rallied around him was because he was in the military and since it was the military who conducted the elections in 1999, they decided to support their own. Secondly the north felt they've been unfair to yourbas. Remember Abiola had just died the previous year (1998) and tensions were rising so they just decided to allow the yourbas rule.

Since then, they've never backed any Southerner. When Jonathan won the presidential election in 2011 he had the whole southern support plus a handful of NC Christian states. The core north didn't vote for him. And the reason why he lost in 2015 is that the SW who voted for him in 2011, formed an alliance with the north and voted massively for Buhari leaving him with only the SE and SS. That's why he lost.

If Tinubu is thinking that the north would choose him over Atiku and Kwankwaso, he had better wake up from his slumber. Aside the SW and NC States like Kogi and Kwara, it would be very difficult for him to win any other northern state.

The kaduna they're projecting has El-Rufai who feels jilted for not being selected as Tinubu's running mate and might play the nonchalant role by secretly working for Atiku leaving the Southern Christian section to vote for Peter Obi and the northern part to be shared between Atiku and Kwankwaso.

The Brono he's projecting Bloc votes from are secretly rallying around Atiku, and the Northern Christians who would have given him massive support if he had picked any of them as running mate would either join forces with Atiku or Peter Obi.

The SS and SE would be where he would record the worst performance cos in SE states like Imo and Ebony who have APC governors, the governor of imo isn't performing and no imolite would want to have anything to do with APC because of him, and that of Ebonyi is in crisis and on the verge of leaving the party to pursue his Senatoral career in another party.

The SS has only one sitting governor the governor of cross river state and he's facing the same crisis the governor of Ebonyi is facing. So it's most likely that he'll decamp from APC as well so as to pursue his Senatoral career.

This technically means that tinubu has almost zero votes from the SE and SS, he would struggle with PDP and LP for votes in the SW and loose massively in the whole north. So tell me how he's going to become the next president.

The mystery about Tinubu I'm still trying to understand is how can you be a Muslim and say because you want northern votes you select a Muslim VP? Is it that the north doesn't recognize yourba Muslims are geninue Muslims?

Cos in Christianity whether you're from the south or north as long as you confess Jesus as the son of God and believe in him, you'll be accepted wherever you go.

Tinubu's rejection by the northern caliphate that he had to choose another northern Muslim to appease them is a slap on the face of yourbas and if they're smart they'll emancipate themselves from the north and stop attacking their fellow Southerners just to please them.