Welcome, Guest: Register On Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / New
Stats: 3,143,328 members, 7,780,843 topics. Date: Friday, 29 March 2024 at 12:08 AM

2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) - Politics (7) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) (26328 Views)

Governor Ortom Endorses Peter Obi, Says LP Candidate Can Deliver Nigeria (Video) / Bandits Kidnap Anglican Bishop Aderogba, Wife & Driver In Oyo / 2023 Presidency: No PDP Candidate Can Contest Against Me – Tinubu (2) (3) (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (Reply) (Go Down)

Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Abassmt: 5:36am On Aug 11, 2022
Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.
spot on, very good presentation there.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Nobody: 5:38am On Aug 11, 2022
efepeppereski:


You are just deceiving yourself. What you just said work mostly in the North. With the suffering that is currently going on in Nigeria, I pity APC. Both the rich and the poor dey feel the effect of APC bad governance The party has a lot of things going against it. M-M ticket is there. Bad governance is there. Tinubu giving us vibe of Buhari all over again. The factors that made PDP to lose presidential election can now be found in APC. Let APC be deceiving themselves online.

I am from Delta State. In presidential election, Obi will win Delta State. I am confident because a mushroom party
called DPP hass won over 10 state house of assembly seats and a house of rep seat because of a popular candidate called Great Ogboru. Ogboru lost the governorship election that year because election was rigged in the riverine areas. But with BIVAS you can't produce fictitious results from the riverine areas again. In fact, the current deputy Senate president Ovie Omo Agege first got to the Senate with Labour Party due to influence of Ogboru. Coupled with the fact that Okowa is not loved in Delta State, so his being Atiku VP won't really sway voter's that much.

Many politicians are greatly disliked. I don't want to use the word hate. They can't influence Jack in the election, unless through vote buying. It is Northerners that have herd mentality. Many Southerners, especially those in the urban areas, cannot be influenced to the extent that they will vote bad candidates.

Since people are becoming confident in the electoral process, expect huge shock in this election. Nothing is sure for anybody at the moment. Let's just watch as things unfold.

For party agents, that is not difficult. I am sure people will volunteer to be party agents for labour party. Obi movement is organic. They can sort that out between now and the election. But one thing about this election is that the odds are against APC.





I swear, you are smart and intelligent. And you write well.

I have noticed that Obi's supporters are usually smart

1 Like 1 Share

Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Ekpeitit(m): 6:06am On Aug 11, 2022
These IPOB people always make me laugh grin grin
May their labour continue to be in vain.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by wiseoneking: 6:55am On Aug 11, 2022
buhariguy:
will that change apc members to vote pdp or labour,
Even edo no be lagos saga,
It was 55% for pdp and 45% for apc,
Atiku will only share that 55% with obi.
Tinubu will still have the 45 % and win the state.
Is not difficult to understand
You should desist from mkpurumili. Stop dreaming about is your emiliko 45%
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Zeezenho: 7:10am On Aug 11, 2022
FuckSilly:

Lol
Mu
Mu
And me no sabi treat fuçk up abi? Una mouth too much and that's why Una remain stagnant

Which people deh stagnant? Show me what you have achieved in last 8 years and I will show you what's stagnancy look like yours is not even stagnancy but backwardness.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by highskies(m): 7:19am On Aug 11, 2022
Thank you so much for this source. I didn’t even know that there was a google trend out there. Lolz.

However, the Past 7days is not a quality sample. I queried the last 12months, 90days etc and the results were more representative. Nevertheless, it is worth keeping an eye on the developing trend in the next couple of months.

Thanks once more for sharing google trend on here. I can think of a few more important applications. Cheers mate

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by FuckSilly: 7:21am On Aug 11, 2022
Zeezenho:


Which people deh stagnant? Show me what you have achieved in last 8 years and I will show you what's stagnancy look like yours is not even stagnancy but backwardness.
We know your type ekpa
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Advocate500: 7:33am On Aug 11, 2022
Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.
trash from the republic of tribal bigotry.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by shinealight(m): 7:39am On Aug 11, 2022
pinkPUSSY:
HOW CAN TINUBU WIN LAGOS WITH ELECTORAL LAW ON GROUND ?

Despite all the ballot snatching by MC Olumo and writing of results in 2019 yet he performed absmally, how much more now a lot of people are fed up with APC and Buhari is not interested in rigging election for anyone..
Tinubu can only get some votes in Lagos through vote buying since that's is where he lives and another factor that might make him to get some votes is some myopic people that will vote based on tribal affiliation but they are in minority, but he won't win Lagos because a lot of lagosians now see him as a political monster due to his major role during Lekki massacre

As for Platue, Tinubu is coming third, take it or leave it

Tinibu is going no where .. You want me to take an analysis made by ADEROGBA OTUNLA serious ?

It should have been done by an unbiased empire


If your position is that Mr Aderogba Otunba cannot be “objective” because he’s a Yorubaman, then neither can an Igbo or Hausa.
So, we should start looking to getting our objective analyst either from the Moon or Mars as soon as possible before the elections! grin grin
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by pinkgoodies(m): 9:09am On Aug 11, 2022
nzeobi:


PO has inherited PDPs votes in Lagos check where PDP votes come from in Lagos, it's mostly Igbo dominated areas and then with end SARS and massive voters registration and sensitization. PO will have a brighter chance in Lagos

He inherited a little. And who said all igbos will vote PO. The votes PDP will be getting in SE, nobi igbos dey give am to him. Besides igbo votes in lagos are not up to 35%.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by nzeobi(m): 9:23am On Aug 11, 2022
pinkgoodies:


He inherited a little. And who said all igbos will vote PO. The votes PDP will be getting in SE, nobi igbos dey give am to him. Besides igbo votes in lagos are not up to 35%.

I won't argue with you but check the LGAs where the bulk PDP votes comes from in Lagos and you will know the people that dominated those areas.
PO stands a good chance in Lagos cos he will get block votes from those areas and some Yorubas will vote him and the youths will finish work too or do we talk about ikoyi, festac,lekki,epe and those axis.
Am not making a tribal argument but am just stating the reality
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Ikemba007: 9:24am On Aug 11, 2022
Validated:
Peter Obi will deafeat Tinubu and Atiku to second and distant last. The analyst is bias. The only states Obi cannot get 50% are Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, and Lagos.

Lol!

1 Like

Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Invitationn: 11:41am On Aug 11, 2022
khadaffi:


Even me self surprise with this kind yeye stat. After Peter Obi in Edo the second is going to be Atiku. This will be because of the governor having allied with Atiku. There is no BAT in Edo State. The only ones we have reside at kingsquare and only fly during the day. We have killed most of the bats in Edo State due to the large presence of skilled hunters.
The data flattered Peter Obi to high heavens grin
Geez!
He won't be anywhere close to those stats.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Occurstaem(m): 12:29pm On Aug 11, 2022
mystery22:
cheesy bats at work,imagine the data..
Well can't expect anything better after eating agbado and cassava you will start imagining unrealistic figures and stats

Tinubu can never win osun states...


The election is actually between Peter obi and Peter obi...
The youths are tired
LOL
In your dream. You better wake up.
Tinubu/Shettima 2023
In God we trust
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Daum: 1:24pm On Aug 11, 2022
buhariguy:
will that change apc members to vote pdp or labour,
Even edo no be lagos saga,
It was 55% for pdp and 45% for apc,
Atiku will only share that 55% with obi.
Tinubu will still have the 45 % and win the state.
Is not difficult to understand


You make me laugh
In 2015 and 2019 APC was in control of the state.
In 2015 Oshiomole was governor of the state and still he lost to PDP with all the machinery he had. In 2019 APC was at the Federal level and Oshiomole was the national chairman of the APC and the APC had a sitting governor....yet APC lost the state again.....We all know the heavy rigging that took place in 2019 elections....still the APC national chairman lost his state...


Now look at today's factor
Oshiomole is no longer party chairman, party resources are not at his disposal. The APC lost the governor seat. The APC structure in Edo is almost dead.

After the 2020 Edo elections, Edo people have a lot of trust for the system and they know how to follow it up very well. The election in Edo state is between PDP and LP. The PDP is the government in power and the LP are frustrated Edo people marching on....

Like people don't want to even see Tinubu here. They remember seeing him with the failure Buhari all through. We remember Oshiomole there too and the lies they sold....once the campaign starts properly you will see.

In Edo they campaign by playing old videos. They will just start showing the videos of Tinubu, Oshiomole and Buhari as they lied in 2015 and 2019.... that's all.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by IgOga(m): 1:35pm On Aug 11, 2022
H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

grin grin grin grin

Sorry what data is this? Is this mention on social media or what?

Anyways....as campaign never start for the big parties....I am surprised that Tinubu is polling well in every part of the country.......That data looks like APC has it in the bag....but google mention is not thesame as support or coming out to vote......
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by IgOga(m): 1:41pm On Aug 11, 2022
marvel2real:

I am from plateau state and I can tell you for free that we are 100percent obedient,our clueless mistake of a governor is totally on his own.

grin grin grin grin Do you know the meaning of 100%? grin grin grin
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by IgOga(m): 1:45pm On Aug 11, 2022
SlayQueenSlayer:


Imagine the insult on Taraba, Bauchi and Plateau. Emilokan no fit win or come second in two of those state.

Well it's not by wishes...when Obi and Atiku are eating from thesame pot what do you expect? PDP main presented Atiku , PDP Annex presented Obi....it is a case of a house divided against itself. This is why I think APC may win 2023 because the others are going to divide their votes between Obi and Atiku in the South and Kwankwanso and Atiku in the North
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by atobs4real(m): 2:03pm On Aug 11, 2022
wiseoneking:
This guy is still dreaming in hell. Open your eyes and feel the reality. OBidient is all you need to be
On Nairaland am Po and for reality am for BAT.
Na you sabi
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Cantonese: 2:05pm On Aug 11, 2022
Chuksaluta:
Nice work. Can you shed more light on your data? Is it from survey?

It is not survey. It is from town planning.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Chuksaluta(m): 2:11pm On Aug 11, 2022
Cantonese:


It is not survey. It is from town planning.

Poor attempt on being funny... dumbbo
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by ZazziAkbar(m): 2:15pm On Aug 11, 2022
H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla
I stopped at your plateau prediction..same Lalong that his people are angry with him over his recent comments about Christianity and the pope?
Same Lalong that rarely visits his people whenever bandits attack them..? Same middlebelt that bandits are having a field day?
In the history of plateau state, Lalongs government was the only government that had dead bodies abandoned in front of the government house in protest..
Even recently, plateau people took him to court over his desperation for a deal with Jaiz bank over terminus market..
And you made this person a DG of campaign and you feel he will win? Anyways, that's your cup of tea...
I'd like to wager a 100k bet with anyone...if plateau gives APC 39% of Votes..you win...
No be to dey make noise online..

1 Like

Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Web4life(m): 4:46pm On Aug 11, 2022
Peter Obi is sure to secure at least 51% of the votes in these States:
1. Edo,
2. Rivers,
3. Delta,
4. Akwa ibom,
5. Cross River,
6. Bayelsa,
7. Abia,
8. Anambra,
9. Ebonyi,
10. Enugu,
11. Imo,
12. Benue,
13. Plateau,
14. Taraba,
15. Nasarawa
16. FCT.

Peter Obi is certain to secure substantial votes as second runner up, after the winner, in these States:
1. Lagos,
2. Kaduna,
3. Adamawa,
4. Kogi,
5. Oyo,
6. Ondo.

However, I don't know whether the votes in the first section of 16 states above will give him victory.

But one thing is certain, whoever wins the election will certain do so with a slim margin or there maybe a rerun to satisfy the constitutional requirement for victory- should the need for a rerun arise, Peter Obi will be one of the two candidates in the rerun election.

This is my humble and well considered opinion looking at the electoral patterns of states since 1999 till date.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Aydlecturer: 4:49pm On Aug 11, 2022
Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

God bless you for this reasonable analysis. Let's see what will happen in the coming election.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Ylink4sure: 6:53pm On Aug 11, 2022
This is a very concise analysis.

Kudos



Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Melagros(m): 9:48pm On Aug 11, 2022
buhariguy:
that is why lalong is the DG.
Pope and plateau chapter of CAN approve him as DG
grin grin grin
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Melagros(m): 9:51pm On Aug 11, 2022
garfield1:


It wasn't rigged.lalong won fair and square
Oga, I contacted people at home in 2019
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by garfield1: 10:41pm On Aug 11, 2022
Melagros:

Oga, I contacted people at home in 2019

Oga,jerryboy isn't a likeable person
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by buhariguy(m): 6:16pm On Aug 12, 2022
Daum:



You make me laugh
In 2015 and 2019 APC was in control of the state.
In 2015 Oshiomole was governor of the state and still he lost to PDP with all the machinery he had. In 2019 APC was at the Federal level and Oshiomole was the national chairman of the APC and the APC had a sitting governor....yet APC lost the state again.....We all know the heavy rigging that took place in 2019 elections....still the APC national chairman lost his state...


Now look at today's factor
Oshiomole is no longer party chairman, party resources are not at his disposal. The APC lost the governor seat. The APC structure in Edo is almost dead.

After the 2020 Edo elections, Edo people have a lot of trust for the system and they know how to follow it up very well. The election in Edo state is between PDP and LP. The PDP is the government in power and the LP are frustrated Edo people marching on....

Like people don't want to even see Tinubu here. They remember seeing him with the failure Buhari all through. We remember Oshiomole there too and the lies they sold....once the campaign starts properly you will see.

In Edo they campaign by playing old videos. They will just start showing the videos of Tinubu, Oshiomole and Buhari as they lied in 2015 and 2019.... that's all.
you have not answer my question.
Will a apc vote for pdp,
Apc vote will not change,
Igbo people that voted for obaseki are the same obi-diot shouting obi-diot,
Apc will still win by 40% of vote.
PDP and obituary can share their 60%
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by Daum: 6:31pm On Aug 12, 2022
buhariguy:
you have not answer my question.
Will a apc vote for pdp,
Apc vote will not change,
Igbo people that voted for obaseki are the same obi-diot shouting obi-diot,
Apc will still win by 40% of vote.
PDP and obituary can share their 60%


The fact that you just said Igbo people voted obaseki meaning you don't even know anything about Edo state...
I just day follow wrong person discuss
Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by gbgabuja: 9:54am On Aug 13, 2022
In the PAST 24 HOURS (13th August 2022)-

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 18%
Peter Obi 24%
Atiku Abubakar 18%
Rabiu Kwankwaso 4%

Peter Obi's most recent growth of 24% is connected to The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG).
https://punchng.com/peter-obis-presence-excites-worshippers-at-rccg-convention

Then, Atiku Abubakar's growth is connected to Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State.
https://dailytrust.com/just-in-you-may-lose-in-2023-wike-tells-atiku

Thank you.

Re: 2023: No Candidate Can Have A Landslide Victory - Aderogba Otunla(Photo, Trends) by IGoComotYaTeeth: 11:56pm On Aug 16, 2022
safarigirl:



APC cannot win Abuja. How many rural areas dey here? What do you think the population is in these rural areas?

I voted in an area some people would call a rural area in 2019, and APC could not win that axis. Abuja is a cosmopolitan city, it is not like some other states that this rural area talk holds true.

APC may only win Gwagwalada, but the other places? Not at all.
safarigirl you dey ignore me cry is it because I insulted your Bryann, the silent treatment is getting to me o

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (Reply)

Nigerian Troops Neutralize Several Boko/ISWAP Terrorists In Yobe State (Photos) / Fashola In N166bn Road And Bridge Contract Mess - Premium Times / PDP House Of Rep Aspirant Among Arrested Robbery Suspects Paraded In Ekiti

(Go Up)

Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health
religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket

Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 108
Disclaimer: Every Nairaland member is solely responsible for anything that he/she posts or uploads on Nairaland.