Aiel123:

You laid bare your analysis as a son of the soil.
Hope Garfield1 himself will see that his party has no hope for presidential election.

.

APC has no hope here in Akwa Ibom State, it's LP&PDP, Tinubu is hoping on Senator Akpabio's popularity to deliver him which is not possible as we speak, in urban areas of the State, electorates are aware of everything happening under APC led FG, there are the agents to concientize those our village papa, mama, bros&sis who are not well exposed to who is fit&credible to vote during Presidential election.

saintkeppy:
.

APC has no hope here in Akwa Ibom State, it's LP&PDP, Tinubu is hoping on Senator Akpabio's popularity to deliver him which is not possible as we speak, in urban areas of the State, electorates are aware of everything happening under APC led FG, there are the agents to concientize those our village papa, mama, bros&sis who are not well exposed to who is fit&credible to vote during Presidential election.

Garfield will not like this.
I keep on telling him APC have no footing in SS and will perform poorly because of BUHARI'S gross ineptitude and Tinubu's M/M ticket but He will be quick to counter saying Akpabio will deliver 25%.
Watch as he'll counter your salient analysis.

Aiel123:

You laid bare your analysis as a son of the soil.
Hope Garfield himself will see that his party has no hope for presidential election.

Its like you didnt get him.he said akpabio will pull votes for tinubu from his own zone like he did for buhari in 2019.is that not what I've been saying.with obi reducing atiku votes,tinubu getting 25% is not necessary.
In governorship,he is giving it to oba same thing I have said.there is no ss state that atiku can get above 50% like in 2019

saintkeppy:
.

APC has no hope here in Akwa Ibom State, it's LP&PDP, Tinubu is hoping on Senator Akpabio's popularity to deliver him which is not possible as we speak, in urban areas of the State, electorates are aware of everything happening under APC led FG, there are the agents to concientize those our village papa, mama, bros&sis who are not well exposed to who is fit&credible to vote during Presidential election.

Akpabio did it in 2019,he will do it again.ik zone is mostly rural.uyo people seem divided.as long as lp and pdp share votes,tinubu is ok.

Aiel123:

Garfield will not like this.
I keep on telling him APC have no footing in SS and will perform poorly because of BUHARI'S gross ineptitude and Tinubu's M/M ticket but He will be quick to counter saying Akpabio will deliver 25%.
Watch as he'll counter your salient analysis.

The people I am closest to in the world apart from my cross river are akwa ibom people.

garfield1:


Its like you didnt get him.he said akpabio will pull votes for tinubu from his own zone like he did for buhari in 2019.is that not what I've been saying.with obi reducing atiku votes,tinubu getting 25% is not necessary.
In governorship,he is giving it to oba same thing I have said.there is no ss state that atiku can get above 50% like in 2019

Even though PDP won't get above 50% a win here is gold.
I think you should talk about your candidate. If he loses the north, it's all over.
And on Akpabio, Saintkeppy said it is not looking likely as at now.

Aiel123:

Even though PDP won't get above 50% a win here is gold.
I think you should talk about your candidate. If he loses the north, it's all over.
And on Akpabio, Saintkeppy said it is not looking likely as at now.

Go back to 2019,no one saw apc getting 25% in aks so leave those funny talks.I have told you that tinubu can afford to lose the north narrowly,win sw and stay close to atiku in se/ss.his path looks easier than atiku that needs to win north and come second in other places

garfield1:


Go back to 2019,no one saw apc getting 25% in aks so leave those funny talks.I have told you that tinubu can afford to lose the north narrowly,win sw and stay close to atiku in se/ss.his path looks easier than atiku that needs to win north and come second in other places

If Tinubu loses north he loses its that simple.
SS/SE combination will cover SW.
Tinubu isn't sure of any massive win in any of the zones.
The marginal difference between PDP and APC in SW won't be much.

Aiel123:

If Tinubu loses north he loses its that simple.
SS/SE combination will cover SW.
Tinubu isn't sure of any massive win in any of the zones.
The marginal difference between PDP and APC in SW won't be much.

No sir.sw will go to tinubu at least 55%,remaining 45% will be shared between.that's massive.obi should take se with 70% at least.a tinubu win in nc will rather cover se/ss margin from atiku which can't surpass 500k.tinubu is sure of bloc from sw,obi se,atiku nowhere

garfield1:


No sir.sw will go to tinubu at least 55%,remaining 45% will be shared between.that's massive.obi should take se with 70% at least.a tinubu win in nc will rather cover se/ss margin from atiku which can't surpass 500k.tinubu is sure of bloc from sw,obi se,atiku nowhere

How will Tinubu win NC?
Benue, Plateau, Niger Fct is going to PDP ( removing Obi out of the equation)
Leaving only Kwara.
Kogi will be tight.
So Garfield, how did you arrive at your conclusion on Tinubu winning NC.
55% isn't bloc votes.

Aiel123:

How will Tinubu win NC?
Benue, Plateau, Niger Fct is going to PDP ( removing Obi out of the equation)
Leaving only Kwara.
Kogi will be tight.
So Garfield, how did you arrive at your conclusion on Tinubu winning NC.
55% isn't bloc votes.

Benue and plateau are going labour.historically,they always vote for a southerner or a liberal northerner.they won't vote another fulani surely and won't prefer mm ticket.ortom and Abba Moro are not with atiku.in plateau,jang is not with atiku,lalong is tinubu DG.the beroms in plateau north prefer obi.the latestbopinion polls on YouTube shows them massively preferring obi.most northern Christians want obi.
Nasarawa will be divided but with gov sule,adamu and makura,tinubu might just edge it.fct will be divided as usual.you know igbos full fct.kogi will slightly go tinubu because of okun and ebira.finally,kwara is tinubu.even sdp are campaigning for him.tinubu should take niger narrowly...muazu,kure are not on ground..
If tinubu take 55,obi 20,atiku 25%,its a bloc vote.moreover,this is a three horse race,any 10% gap will be massive

garfield1:


Benue and plateau are going labour.historically,they always vote for a southerner or a liberal northerner.they won't vote another fulani surely and won't prefer mm ticket.ortom and Abba Moro are not with atiku.in plateau,jang is not with atiku,lalong is tinubu DG.the beroms in plateau north prefer obi.the latestbopinion polls on YouTube shows them massively preferring obi.most northern Christians want obi.
Nasarawa will be divided but with gov sule,adamu and makura,tinubu might just edge it.fct will be divided as usual.you know igbos full fct.kogi will slightly go tinubu because of okun and ebira.finally,kwara is tinubu.even sdp are campaigning for him.tinubu should take niger narrowly...muazu,kure are not on ground..
If tinubu take 55,obi 20,atiku 25%,its a bloc vote.moreover,this is a three horse race,any 10% gap will be massive

Hope you know Buhari won Benue in 2015 against GEJ a southerner?
Berom political leaders are PRO PDP.
Sen Gyang is still in PDP.He never defected to LP.
Jang, Hope you know Atiku won Plateau state at PDP's primary? How come he never delivered Wike.
Abba Moro is with who?
Fct is still PDP'S to lose.
Nasarawa brings the slimmest of all margin.

Aiel123:

Hope you know Buhari won Benue in 2015 against GEJ a southerner?
Berom political leaders are PRO PDP.
Sen Gyang is still in PDP.He never defected to LP.
Jang, Hope you know Atiku won Plateau state at PDP's primary? How come he never delivered Wike.
Abba Moro is with who?
Fct is still PDP'S to lose.
Nasarawa brings the slimmest of all margin.

Political leader of berom is Jonah jang who is with wike.the beroms are always fighting fulanis.senator gyang is a lackey of jang...in 1960-64,1979,1993,2003,2011,they voted southerners or southern parties.even though gej lost in 2015,he won more lgas.it was because of rigging in gboko and buruku.a lot in pdp supported buhari in tivland.plateau are fiercely always supporting Christian agenda..
We dont know who plateau delegates voted but jang who controls the delegates is with wike.dariye is dancing between lp and APC...
Pdp usually wins fct with less than 20k votes until 2019 when it was 100 and u suspect because of obi.it will be like nasarawa.nc has alwats been decided by kwara,kogi and niger which favours tinubu.atiku might not win any state here

garfield1:


Political leader of berom is Jonah jang who is with wike.the beroms are always fighting fulanis.senator gyang is a lackey of jang...in 1960-64,1979,1993,2003,2011,they voted southerners or southern parties.even though gej lost in 2015,he won more lgas.it was because of rigging in gboko and buruku.a lot in pdp supported buhari in tivland.plateau are fiercely always supporting Christian agenda..
We dont know who plateau delegates voted but jang who controls the delegates is with wike.dariye is dancing between lp and APC...
Pdp usually wins fct with less than 20k votes until 2019 when it was 100 and u suspect because of obi.it will be like nasarawa.nc has alwats been decided by kwara,kogi and niger which favours tinubu.atiku might not win any state here

Atiku won Plateau delegates.
Check premium times ( I don't know how to copy links , I'll have shown you )
I understand Jang is with Wike.But wouldn't he had reciprocated his support to Wike in the primaries?
David Mark,Ayu,Suswam are with Atiku in Benue.

Aiel123:

Atiku won Plateau delegates.
Check premium times ( I don't know how to copy links , I'll have shown you )
I understand Jang is with Wike.But wouldn't he had reciprocated his support to Wike in the primaries?
David Mark,Ayu,Suswam are with Atiku in Benue.

The leader of benue pdp is ortom.suswan cannot do much against a pro obi population.ayu has no relevance,mark has lost his electoral relevance..
Premium times were just guessing and pernutating.no one is sure which state voted which

garfield1:


The leader of benue pdp is ortom.suswan cannot do much against a pro obi population.ayu has no relevance,mark has lost his electoral relevance..
Premium times were just guessing and pernutating.no one is sure which state voted which

What do you mean by Mark losing relevance?
Or does being out of office equates to having no relevance?
Ortom has a senatorial seat to vie for...If he goes against Atiku, He'll likely lose.
Out of all the G-5 governors,I only rate Makinde highly(After Wike)

anonimi:


I was actually thinking of the Obasanjo spoiler angle for Atiku, which is partly fueling PO's dreams. Thanks.

Obasanjo would certainly do anything to truncate Atiku's ambitions, but as long as Atiku is in a major party - the PDP - and someone like KK exists in a key state like Kano, then it would be difficult for his preferred candidate - PO? - to win. Except KK steps down for Atiku and urges his supporters to vote for Atiku. Then again, Obasanjo does not want the best for Atiku. So, Tinubu all the way.

garfield1:


Akpabio did it in 2019,he will do it again.ik zone is mostly rural.uyo people seem divided.as long as lp and pdp share votes,tinubu is ok.

.

That was 2019, the new electoral law 2022 will have effect on the forthcoming elections, surprise winners will emerged, independent&educated voters have registered to vote in their polling units in their respective village, People are wiser now brother, they wants to be involved in who they want as their leaders &the awareness has gone viral, PDP&Labour Party has Federal Constituency candidates in all the 10 Federal Constituency of the State. The Candidates will slug it out with APC in their respective polling Units, canvassing votes for their Presidential candidates, Ikot Ekpene Senatorial District can deliver Sen. Akpabio to return to red Chamber, but LP Fed. const candidates will ensure Mr. Peter Obi gets votes as well in all the three Senatorial Districts, its gonna be a different ball game this time around, since it's same day voting, in AKS, APC is demonized they longer needs party that will bring untold hardship to the people, Atiku stands a big chance cos of Gov. Udom is Chairman Presidential campaign council &the people of the State don't even fancy old ailing Tinubu as a choice.
Tinubu ranks 3rd in AKS after Atiku&Peter Obi
cc: Aiel123

saintkeppy:
.

That was 2019, the new electoral law 2022 will have effect on the forthcoming elections, surprise winners will emerged, People are wiser now brother, &the awareness has gone viral, PDP&Labour Party has Federal Constituency candidates in all the 10 Federal Constituency of the State. The Candidates will slug it out with APC in their polling Units, canvassing votes for the Presidential candidates, Ikot Ekpene can deliver Sen. Akpabio to return, but LP Fed. const candidates will ensure Mr. Peter Obi gets votes as well, its gonna be a different ball game, since it's same day voting, in AKS, APC is demonized they longer needs party that will bring untold hardship to the people &they don't fancy Tinubu.
cc: Aiel123

Same thing happened in 2019.with the coming of obi,both pdp and apc are demonized....in 2019,it was 61-29.with obi now,pdp cant get more than 50%.as you can see,pdp is divided.
I just met the ward 8 leader of pdp in calabar.they said over 100 buses were mobilized from calabar to uyo and 5k was shared

garfield1:


Same thing happened in 2019.with the coming of obi,both pdp and apc are demonized....in 2019,it was 61-29.with obi now,pdp cant get more than 50%.as you can see,pdp is divided.
I just met the ward 8 leader of pdp in calabar.they said over 100 buses were mobilized from calabar to uyo and 5k was shared

APC are more hated and demonized.
In 2019, Akpabio lost all the LGA in his senatorial district except his LGA in presidential election to PDP

Aiel123:

APC are more hated and demonized.
In 2019, Akpabio lost all the LGA in his senatorial district except his LGA in presidential election to PDP

He got the needed votes.dont forget pdp had 900k in 2015..can you see the difference these men make?
In 2019,I was ridiculed in my Vila for supporting buhari.I stopped going to the village.in yala,we went with hon ekwok and achadu to campaign,they called buhari a terrorist,boko haram person,all sorts of name.buhari lost woefully in yala but got 30% in crs.what more are they going to say to tinubu? Which name will they call him that they didnt ? .now, that yala is dominated by apc,my LGA is apc.can you now spot the difference? How many areas in ss/se has pdp captured? Instead they are losing ground to apc and pdp...in rivers,it's now 50 50 between apc and pdp,same in bayelsa,edo.in akwa ibom,labour has lowered the gap for apc same as in delta.in crs,apc now has the edge

garfield1:


Same thing happened in 2019.with the coming of obi,both pdp and apc are demonized....in 2019,it was 61-29.with obi now,pdp cant get more than 50%.as you can see,pdp is divided.
I just met the ward 8 leader of pdp in calabar.they said over 100 buses were mobilized from calabar to uyo and 5k was shared

.

That was inaugral PDP Presidential campaign in Uyo ahead of 2023 Presidential election. So mobilizations is allowed, Uyo is closer to Calabar, it's not a big deal, same way Gov. Udom as a Chairman Presidential campaign council will mobilized PDP faithfuls to Calabar, anytime Atiku visits Cross River State, or Port Harcourt when the Presidential Campaign Train stops in Gov. Wike's Rivers State.

When I say APC is Demonized, it is as a result of untold hardship Buhari's Government have brought to the people, high rate of insecurity, high rate of inflation, that's not APC promised Nigerians in 2015&2019, 1KG of cooking Gas is now ₦850 against ₦250, do you know the price of kerosene or diesel now? $1is now ₦710 against ₦216, food stuff of a common man is on the high side etc compared to what was obtainable under PDP led FG, Muslim-muslim ticket issues, that's the basis other parties&its candidates are using to campaign against APC in Akwa Ibom State, nobody wants to hear the name of the party, APC &the broom here &that mindset is affecting the chances of their Governorship Candidate, Mr. Akan Udofia in the state, Akan will spend so much money to redeem the image of the party, to let people see reasons with him, that he is a different personality, though under the platform of APC.

So don't feel that APC votes in 2019 is still intact for Tinubu come Febuary 25th, 2023, the emergence &popularity of Mr. Peter Obi has changed that narratives, Obi will split or pick votes from both APC&PDP strongholds in all Geopolitical zones to stand a chance. Look, I'm not under-rating Asiwaju Tinubu, he might have the ideas to change things for the better, but his age, ill-health status, &other factors have demarket him in most states across Nigeria, Nigeria is a very vast country with numerous problems, She needs a strong, vibrant, healthy leader with political will to change things for the common people in the country. I can't imagine myself campaigning for an ailing, aging, weak &a Sick Presidential candidate to lead me, its not possible! even if I'm a party man i'm not gonna be sentimental to that extent, if Tinubu was younger, full of energy, I wouldn't have had any excuses, judging from his Lagos antecedents as Governor.
Give me Mr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of African Development Bank from the Southwest Region as Presidential candidate, I will vote him. But people will say he is not popular.

Nigerians have learnt their lessons in 2015&2019, look at where we are, no progress! The world have left us behind, despite being the highest producer of crude oil &large populace of brilliant & educated people.
Now Nigerians are asking&looking@ Who's on The Ballot?

So don't be surprise to see APC candidates vying for different elective positions voting Obi or Atiku or PDP faithfuls voting Obi on the election day instead of their Presidential candidate, because of those factors listed above.

cc: Aiel123

garfield1:


Political leader of berom is Jonah jang who is with wike.the beroms are always fighting fulanis.senator gyang is a lackey of jang...in 1960-64,1979,1993,2003,2011,they voted southerners or southern parties.even though gej lost in 2015,he won more lgas.it was because of rigging in gboko and buruku.a lot in pdp supported buhari in tivland.plateau are fiercely always supporting Christian agenda..
We dont know who plateau delegates voted but jang who controls the delegates is with wike.dariye is dancing between lp and APC...
Pdp usually wins fct with less than 20k votes until 2019 when it was 100 and u suspect because of obi.it will be like nasarawa.nc has alwats been decided by kwara,kogi and niger which favours tinubu.atiku might not win any state here

.

I thought Dariye is a Senatorial candidate in APC or has he moved to LP? Tinubu will pick significant votes from core Islamic states like Yobe, Borno etc.