sangresan:


You didn't refute any of my observations.

1. Obi won't get up to 50,000 votes in any Southwest state outside of Lagos and perhaps Ogun.

2. Mention those names.

You should know that a bank chairman isn't involved in the day-to-day running of the bank. So, Obi couldn't have mentored anybody as Fidelity's chairman since he wasn't a banker per se.

Let me give you a clear example. Shettima said publicly that he was mentored and groomed for leadership position by Ovia at Zenith Bank. How many people have come out to say something similar about Obi? Not even those who passed under his tutelage at NEXT.

3. What did you mean by rigging party?

APC won Ekiti and PDP won Osun. Explain what you mean by rigging party.

Besides, who told you people were not allowed to vote in Osun and Ekiti? Did LP win in Osun? Did their candidate had up to 20,000 votes despite being a grassroots politician? Did Segun Oni's SDP win in Ekiti despite the noise by his supporters?

The thing is people still looked onto the agents of the major parties to mobilize them before voting. I witnessed it.

See this one. In my state ondo, Obi will get larger votes

You sound silly when you insult without verifying. Atiku is Fulani.

joyandfaith:

Atiku is a yoruba man.
Stupid people everywhere.

APC or Tinubu guys still dont get it: We owe Tinubu nothing although he is Yoruba.
The highest he will get in any yourba state is like 50% of the total votes. No block votes for him in yoruba. He worships the North, let them give him block votes. Yourba doesn't give block votes to any politician except Abiola and Awolowo both of blessed memories.

Strikethem:
See this one. In my state ondo, Obi will get larger votes

wonder233:
So, Ibos will troop out to vote Atiku and leave Peter Obi?

yoruba didn’t vote Obj in 1999 ,politics is a game of interest….as you can see that Soludo is even against Obi and told Atiku yesterday that there are two front runners for the coming election .

Seems your problem is with Obi and not necessarily the analyst. You're pained he gave Obi those states!

Obi would win based on margins and not necessarily number of states!

OGHENAOGIE:
the Most useless report or projections... Peter Obi is going no where the earlier his supporters realize this the better... Anyone giving labour party to win Edo is just naive and stupid... How Kano close to call when APC ll win it clear even kebbi too... The idiot who did this report should just announced Obi na... Next year elections Atiku or tinubu ll be next president...

nlfpmod:


https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1603367064273670146?t=L2v1MQn-RHzRJAL8FupqAg&s=08

The 2023 elections are set to be the tightest in Nigeria's history. SBM is predicting a run-off for the first time in Nigeria's history, with the caveat that "a week is a long time in politics". This map projects who, in our opinion, will take each state when the elections are held at the end of February.
==>https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1603367064273670146?t=L2v1MQn-RHzRJAL8FupqAg&s=08

Fake projections

FatherOfJesus:
is computer science not suppose to be basic knowledge?
Did you fail it?

Codes don't work that way

hiss,
They're telling idiotic pigs that the codes failed in osun,
If it also fail next election,idiotic pigs should not cry of rigging

buhariguy:
hiss,
They're telling idiotic pigs that the codes failed in osun,
If it also fail next election,idiotic pigs should not cry of rigging

if it failed,APC would have rigged and won as usual.

Atiku to wean rivers?whoever makes this prediction, has malaria, not with wike there.

OGHENAOGIE:
the Most useless report or projections... Peter Obi is going no where the earlier his supporters realize this the better... Anyone giving labour party to win Edo is just naive and stupid... How Kano close to call when APC ll win it clear even kebbi too... The idiot who did this report should just announced Obi na... Next year elections Atiku or tinubu ll be next president...

As far as Kwankwaso is on the ballot, he should win Kano easily while APC will come second. As for Osun, it's for Tinubu, and somehow Kwara. Atiku winning Rivers is possible if Wike decides to stay aloof. Obi may likely win Edo since there is crisis in Edo PDP buh d margin will be very small among the 3 candidates. I doubt if Atiku can win Gombe state. Nasarawa tilts towards Tinubu though, buh anything can happen.

nairadatti:
Very foolish statistics to think Atiku will win Delta state

Ahh! He should naa

Ofunaofu:


There's no way Tinubu will win Imo

Truth! Tinubu can either win Ebonyi instead of Imo bcoz of the Calibre of people on ballot(In Ebonyi)

FatherOfJesus:
if it failed,APC would have rigged and won as usual.

bvas is not reliable as proving in osun

joyandfaith:

Atiku is a yoruba man.
Stupid people everywhere.

Buh Atiku is not a Hausa man na. What are you even saying?

buhariguy:
bvas is not reliable as proving in osun

So why did APC rigging ability stall?

Peacecore:
As far as Kwankwaso is on the ballot, he should win Kano easily while APC will come second. As for Osun, it's for Tinubu, and somehow Kwara. Atiku winning Rivers is possible if Wike decides to stay aloof. Obi may likely win Edo since there is crisis in Edo PDP buh d margin will be very small among the 3 candidates. I doubt if Atiku can win Gombe state. Nasarawa tilts towards Tinubu though, buh anything can happen.

a sitting president from south south win fulani man with less than 10000 vote in edo,
If you divide that wining BTW obi and atiku.
That means atiku and obi will share 55 % of total vote.
Apc will get 45% .
Who do you think will win edo state?
The same thing will play out in all state

FatherOfJesus:
So why did APC rigging ability stall?

when you loose guide. your opponent will do

nlfpmod:


https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1603367064273670146?t=L2v1MQn-RHzRJAL8FupqAg&s=08

it's not who wins which state, it's the gap by which you win the state especially your stronghold states. You can win 10 states by 50,000 votes each and your opponent who polls 90% in one state will wipe out your lead in your 10 states. Be advised that many state are won by less than 50,000 votes. Oyo, Osun, Nassarawa, Edo, Benue, Ondo were all won by less than 30,000 votes.

This election will be won by the candidate with capacity to deliver at least 80% in one or 2 states (or who has more states than his opponents where such a lead exists for both) AND the ability to gain 25% in at least 24 states. On this one metric alone Obi has lost this election.

tollyboy5:

Alaye it is only Igbos that sees Muslim/Muslim ticket as issue. Me as a Christian I've been attending Salah festival from my childhood.
I always go to Eid before ram is been slaughtered and I'm a lagos native from Epe. Christian and Muslim are one family in Lagos , Incase you don't know, Lagos has more native Muslims compared to Christian.

Most christian majority in Lagos don't have Lagos root.
My grandfather (rip) a Muslim allowed the first church in my town in Epe many years ago despite knowing the locals are traditional ijebus and Muslims.

Muslim/Muslim issue is no issue at all as far as yorubas are concerned.

You people still like singing the old story of religion is not an issue in South West but MURIC is singing another song in the same South West. As a Yoruba man I grew up not differentiating any known religion. You will never knew who is a traditionalist, a christain or muslim as we were growing up. We go same schools, our uniforms no segregation, everyone does what pleases them but today the case is the reverse. Muslim now counting the number of people in government in each state. The number of commissioners and advisers that are muslims and those that are christains are now the concern of MURIC but that was not so in the past. With MURIC in the show in south west, the golf of religion differences will continue to get wider and wider in south west.
Forget this old lyrics of south west doesn't have problem of religion differences. They have now.

nlfpmod:


https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1603367064273670146?t=L2v1MQn-RHzRJAL8FupqAg&s=08

Kwara, Osun earmarked for Atiku is incorrect, the states will go to Tinubu,said it plainly, if APC can lock down from North west- Katsina , Kaduna, Jigawa , Zamfara in Northeast-Borno, Yobe, Gombe in North-central- Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Nasarawa and win all 6 Southwest states, making 17 states, he can afford to leave the Southeast to Peter Obi and South-South to Atiku, mind you, the margins of wins matter so much, the Elections results from Northeast and Northwest will be closely tight between Tinubu and Atiku, however the most important states are from North-central, if Tinubu could hold down 4 out of 6 there, he will be preparing his Inauguration speech!

HydraFeeds:
Atiku might win few south east states and Tinubu might win Imo and will perform well in state like Ebonyi .

Politics is all about numbers and southeast doesn’t have that let alone voters apathy from Biafra loyalists and UGM actions

Are you sure Southeast don't have the numbers?

This is 2011 election results. See the states with over 1m people who voted.

buhariguy:
is possible. as far as ameachi, Abe and wike will all work for Tinubu.

Lolz....you are a comedian sir

farouk2much:
how do you want it to be predict....??

Hardly will Atiku get 25% in Kwara

donphilopus:
Even though Tinubu was cheated in this projection, he still got the highest states. That shows no matter what happens during the election, Tinubu would win.

They claimed Kwara is too close to call whereas Tinubu would win there effortlessly without any other candidate coming close. If Aliero isn't on the senatorial ballot, Tinubu should win Kebbi. As for Kano, if Kwankwaso is on the ballot, Tinubu should come second but if he should collapse his structure for Tinubu, APC should clear there.

There are at least 6 states given to Atiku that he wouldn't win. Atiku can't win Bayelsa state, Rivers would be very difficult. He's finding it hard in Gombe. Kaduna South which should ordinarily give him votes would be divided. They're stuck between Obi and Atiku. Tinubu would have the advantage here. How on earth would he win FCT and Osun? Tinubu should win three to four of these states plus Kwara and Kebbi (in the absence of Aliero on the ballot) and maybe Kano. Who's still doubting Tinubu's Presidency?

top notch analysis, a good student of political history, we are being practical, not putting sentiment

garfield1:


Kwankwaso 35% tinubu 30% atiku 30% obi 5% 40% 30% 30% or 30% 30% 30% 10% which is good for tinubu

Nice we are getting somewhere.....
What's the total vote cast you're expecting from this region?

Do the math and split it between the three candidates

Then we move to other region one after the other

kezienaira:

So who do you think has kwara in the bag

Atiku will struggle to get 25% in Kwara

blank:


Are you sure Southeast don't have the numbers?

This is 2011 election results. See the states with over 1m people who voted.

They judge s.e with 2019 election where there was voters aparthy cus none was the favourite of the region

Mordecai:


These four persons tweeting in a room have really gone far...

As it stands today, below is the most realistic position of things. Unless anything changes, this is how it stands...


NW


Is like u re drunk.. lagos tcc o

Sokoto AA
Zamfara BAT
Katsina TCC
Kebbi TCC
Kano TCC
Kaduna TCC
Jigawa AA

NE

Borno BAT
Yobe BAT
Gombe TCC
Bauchi AA
Adamawa AA
Taraba AA

NC

Kogi BAT
Nasarawa TCC
Plateau PO
Niger BAT
Kwara TCC
Benue PO
FCT PO

SW

Lagos TCC
Osun TCC
Oyo BAT
Ogun BAT
Ondo BAT
Ekiti BAT

SS

Rivers PO
Bayelsa PO
Delta PO
Cross River PO
Edo PO
Akwa Ibom PO

SE

Anambra PO
Enugu PO
Ebonyi PO
Imo PO
Abia PO

U said lagos katsina jigawa osun na tcc. It is clear u re drunk and blindfolded. I bet u even sokoto getting batified slowly. Osun can never be tcc likewise lagos. Delta south is batified. Bayelsa is partly batified. Edo north is highly batified. These re d states already batified... zamfara yobe borno kwara kogi osun oyo ondo lagos ogun niger kebbi katsina nasarawa. Kano tcc depending on kwankwaso decision.

Peter Obi is winning this states in the map

buhariguy:
a sitting president from south south win fulani man with less than 10000 vote in edo,
If you divide that wining BTW obi and atiku.
That means atiku and obi will share 55 % of total vote.
Apc will get 45% .
Who do you think will win edo state?
The same thing will play out in all state

It won't actually work like that outrightly. Remember that Buhari won when APC has a strong grip of the state. Now that PDP is the ruling party, and Obi on the ballot. It will be hard for APC to win except Edo north whr Oshiomole is vying to represent in the Senate. Anyone that wins Edo won't even have up to 10k margin.

OgundeleT:
The person that put TCC on kwara must be drunk.

in fact, Tinubu will win Kwara handsomely