Unstable relations in an unstable regional order

The Middle East is a region where unstable relations and armed conflicts are experienced for long years. In 1948, David Ben-Gurion, the head of the Jewish Agency, declared the foundation of the Israel state on the Palestinian lands. Many Arabic countries and Turkiye rejected the decision of the United Nations supporting the foundation of the Israel state. From the foundation to today, the armed conflict between some Palestinian groups and Israel has continued while the political situation is developed in favor of the Israel state. Nowadays, there is still a chaotic political environment in the Middle East regarding Israel and its relations with other countries in the region.
The political support by the US gives essential advantage to Israel. In recent years, Arabic countries have started changing their political approach to Israel. Some Arabic countries including UAE, KSA, and Bahrain signed normalization agreements with Israel. Turkiye has been declaring its rejection of the existence of Israel while purchasing some national defense services and some agricultural inputs from Israel. However, Turkiye has started a new approach to Israel, and both countries have sent their consulates to each other in the last month. At the current time, it seems like a big normalization process is working in the Middle East, but no long-term stable peace is guaranteed in the region.

Normalization between Turkiye and Israel

Turkiye is among the countries rejecting the creation of the Israel state on the Palestinian lands while after a while a normalization process was working before the 2000s. Even further, strong trade relations were built between countries. The trade volume was higher than $1 billion in 2000 while it became almost $4 billion in 2011 and it is over $5 billion nowadays. Israel has assisted the Turkish army by providing some technical services for renovating warplanes for long years, and there are still some agreements on trade between countries and cooperation between armies. Subsequently, even though Turkiye has been criticizing Israel politically, there have mostly been normal economic relations. In some incidences like the Mavimarmara case, a ship carrying the Turkish flag tried to take some humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, and the Israeli army stopped it by killing some people on the ship, did not have a long-term negative impact on the relationship between countries.

Erdoğan, the Turkish president, seems to change his approach to Israel in the last two years. After Benjamin Netanyahu lost the elections in 2021, the Turkish management started building a new approach to Israel. This struggle is giving its fruits today, and both countries have decided to send their official representatives to each other. The trade volume for a quarter reached the top in the first quarter of 2022, and an annual trade volume of over $6 billion is expected this year.

What to expect in the following years

Although it is not possible to make perfect estimations for the future because of some political reasons with a long historical background, it is highly possible to expect a developing trade between Turkiye and Israel. Considering that Israel could manage to grow its national economy by 73% from 2010 to 2022 while the Turkish economy has been diminished by 7% at the same time, Turkiye needs external support, and Israel can be a potential candidate for this. In terms of economic development and technology, Israel is the leading country in the Middle East. Therefore, Turkiye needs to follow a leader for bettering. Ignoring ideological deficiencies is quite logical for developing countries including Turkiye to prepare a better future for new generations.

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