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Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election - Politics - Nairaland

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Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naptu2: 3:10am On Feb 13, 2023
Sir J (J9) @SirJarus

FORECAST OF 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (thread)

Did same in 2019. This is not a poll but a forecast based on knowledge of Nigerian politics as an active follower and observer of about 30 years, interactions with people across Nigeria, feeling the pulse of the street etc.

https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512572413120517

22 Likes 7 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naptu2: 3:10am On Feb 13, 2023
TURNOUT

Turnout is projected at average of 41%, higher than national average of 30% - 35% in previous election cycles since PVC was introduced

https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512634333671424

17 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naptu2: 3:10am On Feb 13, 2023
PVC COLLECTION

INEC has not released final PVC collection list (they should release few days to election), but from info pieced together, it is estimated to be 12% higher than 2019 actual PVC collection list.

https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512650687258624

11 Likes 1 Share

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naptu2: 3:11am On Feb 13, 2023
PREDICTED RESULT

It’s a 2 horse race

A very keen contest between AA and BAT.

BAT predicted to win with less than N1m votes, but an AA victory will not be a surprise given the vagary of assumptions.

There is no path to PO victory

https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512663458877443

32 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naptu2: 3:15am On Feb 13, 2023
Screenshots.

6 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 3:29am On Feb 13, 2023
My Nigga Naptu2 cool cool When are you going to openly declare for BAT? The whole 'I am netural' thing you do is commendable but time to take a stand buddy.

Jarus, a pragmatically intelligent political observer who has always been analytically astute, calls it right.

I will go one further by predicting Tinubu will defeat Atiku with a healthier margin than Jarus states and no chance of a run-off.

77 Likes 16 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Obinoscopy(m): 3:34am On Feb 13, 2023
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

267 Likes 24 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Throwback: 3:34am On Feb 13, 2023
It is too late in the day for any candidate to rely on opportunism.

This election has already been won and lost before some decided to seek easy presidential tickets that is a symptom of our weak political system.

I give it to Bola Tinubu also.

47 Likes 10 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Ahuitzotl: 3:55am On Feb 13, 2023
Jarus and his crew in NL have always being thiefffnubu 's urchins thus it's very important for them likewise thiefffnubu to keep the narrative firmly on a two horse race containing him and Atiku disregarding Him that is running away with the limelight thus stealing thiefffnubu's thunder. This apparent snub, albeit an error that's big enough to throw a spanner at their permutations, can be likened to an Ostrich hiding it's head in the sand and ignoring a problem in hopes of it going away on its own because to be honestly speaking for the urchins and agbadorians,it's quite annoying that at this critical stage of the campaign season, thiefffnubu's brand is still trapped under the quagmire and shadow of Him, quite frightening that this spectre of an entity called Him is translating his popularity to actual foots on the ground,street credibility,and soon enough,thumbs on ballot papers even at their own backyard........And there still sits Atiku and his northern hordes.

97 Likes 8 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Akanbiedu(m): 4:00am On Feb 13, 2023
Looks rational on paper but doesn't take care of irrational behaviour of voters. There will be last minute bandwagon effect in favour of BAT.

I predict a margin of not less than 4million for BAT.

35 Likes 8 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 4:03am On Feb 13, 2023
Throwback:
It is too late in the day for any candidate to rely on opportunism.

This election has already been won and lost before some decided to seek easy presidential tickets that is a symptom of our weak political system.

I give it to Bola Tinubu also.

Spot on. My opinion too. Nigeria mirrored a strong two-Party nation, that many western and developed nations are, before the deliberate machinations of Buhari and his crew when they opted for a divide-and-conquer weakening of our existing political Party reality to the detriment of APC.

Nothing indicates this more than the farce the APC Primaries was last year.

But for Buhari deliberately weakening the ruling Party he heads, the APC would be on course for a landslide victory today.

Obi may not even be contesting had APC sustained its characteristically strong and dominant ruling Party status that a committed, sincere, uniting and team-builidng APC President would have easily ensured.

the PDP was virtually at death's door before the self-destructive implosion of the APC Buhari and his pro-North cabal began precipitating with the open undermining of APC's candidate in Edo State that allowed PDP gain some reprieve with Obaseki's win.

Nonetheless, and despite the challenges thrown before BAT by those at the highest echelon of APC power structure, many leaders with political interests beyond May 29th, when Buhari officially bows out, will help Tinubu get over the line comfortably because they know an Atiku win negatively balkanises Nigeria politically forever and ruin their own future also.

Only a Tinubu win ticks all the boxes, for everyone, to include even the need for Nigeria to gain the best President out of all those available.

36 Likes 8 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by QuotaSystem: 4:06am On Feb 13, 2023
Realistic forecast from a great mind 👏🏽👏🏽

The only objection I have is the winning margin. It will be significantly wider because of the unassailable edge that BAT has over AA in the SW, and the lost AA votes in his usual SS/SE stronghold, thanks to PO’s assistance.

35 Likes 9 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by chinchum(m): 4:08am On Feb 13, 2023
This is very close to my projection.

In my released state by state analysis on nairaland last week. I projected over 12 million for APC, 11million for PDP and over 6.5 million for labour party.

22 Likes 6 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Racoon(m): 4:12am On Feb 13, 2023
grin Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

80 Likes 10 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 4:15am On Feb 13, 2023
Ahuitzotl:
Jarus and his associates in NL have always being thiefffnubu 's urchins thus it's very important for them likewise thiefffnubu to keep the narrative firmly on a two horse race containing him and Atiku disregarding 'ursupers' who are running away with the limelight thus stealing thiefffnubu's thunder, this snub albeit an error that's big enough to throw a spanner at their permutations can be likened to an Ostrich hiding it's head in the sand and ignoring a problem in hopes of it going away on its own because to be honestly speaking for the urchins and agbadorians,it's quite annoying that at this critical stage of the campaign season, thiefffnubu's brand is still trapped under the quagmire and shadow of 'the ursupers', quite frightening that this spectre of an ursuper is translating his popularity to actual foots on the ground,street credibility,and soon enough,thumbs on ballot papers even at their own backyard........And there still sits Atiku and his northern hordes.

Even excusing the uncouth language, my suggestion is that you get rid of the blue fonts so that folks may actually be interested in reading what you write instead of dismissing you as an attention-seeker.

29 Likes 6 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by QuotaSystem: 4:22am On Feb 13, 2023
Racoon:
grin Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

The main difference between this projection and those social media and app based polls, is that while those ones suffer from poor sampling and skewed assumptions, this projection is based on verifiable historical electoral trends, a statistical 12% markup in PVC’s collected (due to increased enthusiasm and new technology) and other qualitative field data (e.g interviews and observations) that reflect reality.

21 Likes 6 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by tinsel: 4:23am On Feb 13, 2023
This is the best projection I have seen. But I will like to make the following changes:
Benue , Obi will get 25 percent
Ebony , BAT will get 25 percent
Lagos, Obi will do better than Atiku
Plateau, BAT will get 25 percent
Rivers, if Wike supports BAT he will get 25 percent.
Despite my above changes, nothing much will change from the projections. Obi and Tinubu's votes will move up a bit and Atiku will come down slightly. However, the race is between BAT and Atiku, with Tinubu favoured to win

48 Likes 14 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 4:23am On Feb 13, 2023
Racoon:
grin Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

I think "urchins" are more pragmatically intelligent than you are.

Perhaps they know the election truly remains a two horse race despite Buhari's divide-and-conquer efforts that turned Nigerian politics into a farce and made a previously strong and unassailable ruling Party a divided, and internally distressed shadow of itself beset with man-made infighting and cold war struggle for control.

Buhari and his cabal had some successes but as elections draw closer, so also the reality for many that their future interest is best served and assured working for the coronation of the incoming King instead of doing 'abobaku'with the outgoing King who will be history in 3.5 months.

20 Likes 8 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by ASAPFERG1: 4:25am On Feb 13, 2023
nothing for OBIora cool

11 Likes 6 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Opintiwa: 4:25am On Feb 13, 2023
ASAPFERG1:
nothing for OBIora cool

Ebola Hamed thiefnub'u no go win

27 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by tinsel: 4:29am On Feb 13, 2023
hedonido:
Of course I knew this tribalistic old creep would go round and round only to mouth off a BAT victory. Forecast my ass.
That forecast is the best so far if you can tell yourself the honest truth.

24 Likes 7 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by madridguy(m): 4:30am On Feb 13, 2023
tongue

5 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by sotall(m): 4:32am On Feb 13, 2023
undecided
Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Ahuitzotl: 4:34am On Feb 13, 2023
Dsalvo:


Even excusing the uncouth language, my suggestion is that you get rid of the blue fonts so that folks may actually be interested in reading what you write instead of dismissing you as an attention-seeker.
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins and BaTstards sef..mtcheww...

11 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by naijapips04: 4:37am On Feb 13, 2023
Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

This is the most balanced. Infact it was very generous to Peter obi. I don't see obi winning more than 2 states max

15 Likes 5 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by tinsel: 4:38am On Feb 13, 2023
Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins sef..mtcheww...
You have too much anger stored inside you.

21 Likes 7 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 4:41am On Feb 13, 2023
Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins and BaTstards sef..mtcheww...

A lot of intelligent guys here. Especially in the camp supporting BAT. Your garish fonts immediately indicates to them a desperate need for attention which means you are about 'notice me' style and aggression over substance.

27 Likes 8 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Nobody: 4:41am On Feb 13, 2023
tinsel:

You have too much anger stored inside you.

Precisely.

8 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by hedonido: 4:42am On Feb 13, 2023
tinsel:

That forecast is the best so far if you can tell yourself the honest truth.

One has to be mentally disturbed to project a BAT victory when it is clear the man has zero appeal to the average non Yoruba voter. I don't understand you pseudo-'enlightened' creeps.

Who would vote for someone like this really? At least Buhari had his unassailable 'integrity' selling point that guaranteed him votes from the entire North to the South West. What does BAT have that would give him votes outside the South West? Is it his drug dealing reputation, extreme corruption, dubious personality and background, obvious signs of age and drug induced dementia and mental degradation, or what exactly? Or you're merely expecting his 'structures' to buy votes, coerce votes or manipulate votes? If this is the expectation, shouldn't you lot be ashamed of yourselves and hide your faces in shame rather than insult our sensibilities with stupid forecasts?

How do you win an election when you are not popular on the strength of your own personality with the average voter across geopolitical divides?

Even the best of you in spite of your intellectual pretentions haven't been able to explain how it would be possible for a discredited and obnoxious entity like BAT to inspire the votes of the average non Yoruba Nigerian. Instead you're relying on magic from compromised governors. Just makes no sense. That's why I'm disappointed that old folks like Naptu or Jarus can't hide their jaundiced faces rather than come out in the open to display weakly disguised Yoruba awalokan motivated nonsense.

Shame on you all.

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Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by Obinoscopy(m): 4:44am On Feb 13, 2023
naijapips04:


This is the most balanced. Infact it was very generous to Peter obi. I don't see obi winning more than 2 states max
Duly noted. I have bookmarked your post and will reply you after the results are out.

14 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election by aariwa(m): 4:49am On Feb 13, 2023
Agbado analysis …they try to sound intelligent and neutral at first and then descend into gutter immediately like pigs they are…Tinubu lost the election the day he schemed out Osibanjo and still went to humiliate Christians further with Muslim Muslim ticket while under delusion he will inherit buhari votes..na BVAS and pvc go talk sense into you delusionists parading the elule man that’s not even aware of his surroundings. Paul biya will never happen to Nigeria.God forbid cursed bad thing

55 Likes 1 Share

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