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NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern - Politics - Nairaland

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NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by stev120(m): 6:50pm On Feb 24, 2023
This is my projection and analysis coupled with commentaries that are backed by personal observations and recent opinion polls.

If you're relying on previous elections to judge this one you will definitely be shocked on tomorrow. You must consider religion even over ethnicity.You must consider BVAS machine that will exposé the previous surplus figures in some region.

Also, since electoral structure have been changed, that is, the new electoral Act; blocking any possibility of rigging, the last card is violence and vote buying (which is a little bit weak).

To win the Presidential election the candidate must win 25% of 24 states and FCT.
So having majority vote is not enough to win. That is why a run off is obvious.

If a free and fair election takes place, this is how it would look like

*Highlight of Major Situations*
In the North. There is an amount of persons that are tired of APC and some tired of PDP this set of people have fall to Kwankwaso but I can't tell the degree of the population but I am certain that it is a significant number.

In the South, particularly southeast and south south, a huge number of persons are tired of APC and PDP and these persons have falled to Labour party. NNPP and LP will alter the historic patterns of voting in Nigerian.

Atiku has lost southeast and south south. Northwest is shared with Kwankwaso and northeast between Atiku and Tinubu's vice Shettima, even, Kwankwaso is present there.
To me, who wins more states in north central MIGHT become the president, however, if north central is shared a rerun is possible.

*Analytically*
*Northeast*
Borno APC, LP, NNPP
Gombe: APC, PDP, NNPP, LP
Adamawa: PDP, APC, LP, NNPP
Yobe: PDP, APC, NNPP, LP
Bauchi: PDP/APC, NNPP
Taraba: LP/PDP, APC, NNPP

Lets go,
Northeast is shared between Atiku and Shettima, of cause, we know Shettima can only beat Kanuri part of Borno and Yobe. Atiku have a better part of Northeast, but you see Taraba Obi will partake in the division. NNPP will do better in Bauchi but not better than APC.

*North west*
Jigawa: APC/NNPP, PDP...
Kaduna: APC/LP, PDP
Kano: NNPP--APC, PDP, LP
Katsina: APC--PDP, NNPP
Kebbi: APC, PDP, NNPP,
Sokoto: PDP, APC, NNPP, LP
LP is almost not appearing in most Northwest states this is where APC intend to take the lion share but was cut short by Kwankwaso, PDP is relieved with the emergency of Kwanwaso. We see Kwankwaso shaking Kano and Jigawa, this might be as a result of the high populations of Hausas who might play the ethnic card to support their brother, Kwankwaso. APC and PDP underate him at their peril. Don't be shock if Kwankwaso wins Kano he remains the second force in Jigawa or almost draw with PDP. One thing is certain for Jigawa APC will not win with a bigger margin.

Meanehile, Kaduna is out as Labour party is taking southern Kaduna and making road into the northern Kaduna through Datti. If Elrufia works harder Kaduna can be a battle ground and PDP is not insignificant here. The remaining Northwest is scattering among Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso.

*North Central*
Benue: LP, PDP, APC
Kogi APC, PDP, LP
Kwara: APC, PDP, LP
Nasarawa: APC, PDP, LP, NNPP
Niger: APC, PDP, LP, NNPP
Plateau: LP-PDP, APC
Federal Capital Territory: LP, PDP, LP

Here, religion is the card, we see Obi shaking Benue and Abuja as he drills a little through Plateau, particularly, Christian areas of Plateau. Also, Obi has taken the Christian areas of Nassarawa and Niger. Kogi is APC very non-negotiable. APC and LP will share north central, surprise right? PDP remains third here. Infact, I predict that PDP might not win any state in north central at most Plateau, but they could maintain second in some states.

Without sentiment, notice, for the first time northern Christians will be testing their voting strength. I can tell that Obi will get more Christian votes in the north than in the southwest. Meanwhile, APC remains strong in north central facing stubborn LP. PDP is no longer the main opposition here.

*Southwest*
Lagos: (maybe, LP) APC, LP, PDP
Osun: PDP- APC, LP
Oyo: APC, PDP, LP
Ekiti: APC, PDP/LP
Ogun: APC, LP/PDP
Ondo: APC, PDP/LP

For southwest, Tinubu would have win hands down but religion has given Obi an advantage as many pastors are making body languages to suggest Obi.

In Southwest, APC will do well but not as expected, if you think that Nigerians are not sentimental in regards to religion then you have not been following Nigeria politics. PDP have 2 states in Southwest, APC have 4. both PDP, APC and LP will share Southwest but APC shall take the bigger potion.

Atiku will do less in southwest compared to 2019, maybe, for the obvious reasons, it is because, a Fulani just finished 8 years and another is coming.

Lagos is war scatter (like sharing) but Tinubu will win Lagos except miracle happens for LP.

PDP will win Osun because of Adeleke but this is now shaking following court decision questioning Adeleke's victory.
Although, in southwest part of the surprises is that, LP *might* beat 25% in one or two states there. This prediction is based on religious card be played.

*Southeast*
Ebonyi: LP, PDP, APC
Abia: LP, PDP, APC
Anambra: LP, PDP...
Imo, LP, PDP, APC

Here APC has no appearance in Anambra state, that's an opinion based on observation, PDP are coming second with almost insignificant figures.

*Southsouth*
Delta: LP, PDP,
Edo: LP, PDP, APC
Akwa Ibom: LP, PDP, APC
Bayelsa: PDP/LP, APC
Cross River: LP, PDP, APC
Rivers: PDP/LP, APC

Since 1999 both southeast and southsouth have been voting for PDP, LP changed the narrative and this is a big blow for PDP. Regardless of Okowa being Atiku's vice, I predict Labour party winning Delta because of ethnicity influence. Maybe there are more Igbos in Delta, remember, I said maybe.
LP will win Edo with a fight, while PDP will become second because of it's a PDP state, structure will work here. While through Adams Oshimhole's influence APC will get significant number though remain third.

AkwaIbom is LP, Bayelsa is battle ground between PDP and LP. PDP has always win Bayelsa, Jonathan former PDP Presidential flag bearer is silent and the silence is a disadvantage for PDP.

Rivers, a G5 state, particularly Wike state, he has been the black sheep in the PDP fold. His moves remains unknown, but for me he is confuse and I think Rivers is LP, this is debatable but it won't go easily PDP will fight politically to win Rivers but to no avail.

*Final Drops*
I can predict that there is no block vote from any region except southeast and partially south south. Also, I can categorically tell that, if there be run off it would be between Tinubu and Obi except Atiku makes surprise victory in northwest.
But if it is between APC and LP then Obi need miracle to win.

Finally, surprises are possible, because of the economic situation of the country and APC Muslim - Muslim ticket; there might be high voters participation from individuals particularly Christian areas in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa giving LP one time escape victory. I repeat surprises that can give ESCAPE victory is possible. As many sees Obi as the Messiah.

This is my opinion say yours

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by Randy100: 7:16pm On Feb 24, 2023
A vote for Obi will give Tinubu victory.
Therefore, I urge all APC members to vote for Obi to facilitate Tinubu victory

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by Joevics(m): 7:21pm On Feb 24, 2023
Randy100:
A vote for Obi will give Tinubu victory.
Therefore, I urge all APC members to vote for Obi to facilitate Tinubu victory
I second this motion

Nice analysis, OP.

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by Moh247: 7:30pm On Feb 24, 2023
Even from your permutations Tinubu will win with large margin

84 million PVC

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by Derrickfoster1: 7:30pm On Feb 24, 2023
Moh247:
Even from your permutations Tinubu will win with large margin

Shatap
Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by tungamaje: 7:34pm On Feb 24, 2023
OP, you did a fantastic analysis.

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by press9jatv: 7:35pm On Feb 24, 2023
Atiku Abubakar wins February 25th presidential poll
Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by hotwax: 7:39pm On Feb 24, 2023
so APC is winning everywhere.... grin grin grin grin grin

analyst of iragbiji

redo your analysis for Jigawa, Katsina and Oyo for PDP..

YOU got it wrong there
Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by Savedday2: 8:00pm On Feb 24, 2023
I will give your analysis 75%

Kudos!

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Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by YungMillionaire: 8:02pm On Feb 24, 2023
By this time next week, everybody body go cool down.

Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by YungMillionaire: 8:03pm On Feb 24, 2023
Derrickfoster1:
Shatap

Crying is allowed but wailing MUST wait till next week.

Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by blabulu2000: 8:08pm On Feb 24, 2023
I pray that the Run should be between Obi and Tinubu ... because it will be a landslide victory for Tinubu but if it is between Tinubu and Atiku .. Atiku will win...
Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by beelon1020(m): 8:17pm On Feb 24, 2023
Be calming down...
Less than 48hrs Tinubu will be announced as the winner...
Re: NIGERIA DECIDES: My Analysis On The Voting Pattern by ubest1(m): 8:21pm On Feb 24, 2023
This last formation not working voting is now mandatory, even voting Obi will take me to hell I agree

Randy100:
A vote for Obi will give Tinubu victory.
Therefore, I urge all APC members to vote for Obi to facilitate Tinubu victory

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