On December 20, 2011
· In Politics
BY DAPO AKINREFON

[b]FIERY Televangelist and Overseer of the Latter Rain Assembly Church, Lagos, Pastor Tunde Bakare, was the vice presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), in the 2011 polls. In this interview, he called on Nigerians to resist the Federal Government’s plan to remove fuel subsidy, saying that he would lead the Save Nigeria Group (SNG) on a protest if government goes ahead with its plan to remove fuel subsidy. Excerpts:

Will you mobilise the Save Nigeria Group to protest like what happened during late Yar’Adua’s administration if the Federal government goes ahead with its plan to remove fuel subsidy?

We will wait and see. They have been changing the goal posts themselves. We are going to make available to Nigerians the simple arithmetic of fuel subsidy; it is not just going to be a church affair. We are going to ensure that everything is spelt out for them to see.

They are not subsidizing the cost of production within our country, what the government is subsidizing is alternative cost. Is it not a shame that Nigeria will now be importing electricity from Ghana? So, whether I will lead a mass protest or not does not arise, President Jonathan has called for it, the battle line is drawn and we will see who will win between Ghaddafi and the people.

During your sermon, you said mass revolt brought President Goodluck Jonathan to power and mass revolt would flush him out of power. Are we going to see the revival of the Save Nigeria Group because for a long time, the group seems to be in a coma?

The Save Nigeria Group is not in a coma. Save Nigeria Group is at work, there are several aspects of our work. It is not going to be the responsibility of Save Nigeria Group to lead a civil protest. When it happened, there were so many groups that came together and at the end of the day, you find that some people and some groups pulled out, while some stayed.

What is coming is bigger than that, but I want to assure you that the Save Nigeria Group is not in coma, it is not dead, it is not silent. We will come out at the appropriate time. I am waiting for Jonathan to cut off his head if he goes ahead with the planned removal, you know that Goliath’s sword was used to cut off his own head.

But how do you separate your stand from that of the CPC on fuel subsidy removal?

In the days of Solomon, King of Israel, he was totally in charge and Rehoboam still had all the paraphernalia of what you call the ruling class until the people themselves said enough is enough.

If you put the population of the ruling class together, they are not up to one million, but the rest of the nation will rise against them. How will it happen? And how did it happen in the past? I remember when the Save Nigeria Group were going to march, there was one of their agents who said we were going to march and fail. The chairman of PDP then, Ogbulafor who said it was a road show, we knew who became history at the end of the day.

Let me make this plain: I made it clear that the message was given in the course of my duty as a shepherd to feed the flock with knowledge and understanding, so that they will not be afraid and they will not lack anything. They will not be afraid of terror and terrorists in power. God is able to tame any power monster at anytime. So, it is in the course of my duty as a shepherd that I gave the message. I am functioning as a shepherd, speaking to the parish not as a politician.

Security has been allocated a large chunk in the proposed 2012 budget. Do you think that will help Nigeria address the growing security problems facing the country?

An intending government would have sat down and said we spent so much last year on security, what did it produce? It produced confusion, death, destruction of lives and properties. That does not resolve instability and issues of insecurity in a nation.

You cannot have peace without justice; the moment you compromise justice, you have murdered sleep. You can vote N10 trillion on it. It shows how far those in power are ruled by their own fear and they are running from their shadows. It did not work in the past, it will not work now.

Create job opportunities, give hope to people, serve their interest, all violence will begin to wane. And if you gave amnesty to those who threw bombs in the past, how far can you go by trying to jail those who are throwing bombs in the present? What is good for the goose is good for the gander, you will continue to waste your resources forgetting that if there is no error, there will be no terror. So, it is error of judgement, it won’t work. It has failed in the past, it will fail in the present and it will fail in the future.

The president is mobilising security operatives to forestall any resistance against planned removal of the oil subsidy. Many see this move as an oppression of the people, do you agree?

I don’t because there is a new wind blowing across the world, that wind is the peoples’ will against the power of incumbency. We saw it in Tunisia, in Libya, in Egypt, it is blowing across the whole world.

Don’t forget that those the President is mobilising are going to give a command to others to carry out and those that they will ask to carry it out, will be like the man who gave Salim to Anwar Sadat and shot him on the parade. Wait and see.

Right now, in the city of Kano, security men are also not just taking mufti to work, they are also taking women garment so as to change. Just wait and see. That shows the kind of person he is. The government is subsidizing refined products in Nigeria, they are subsidizing alternative cost of exporting our goods so that we can buy it at expensive rates later. What is wrong with us building new refineries?

The ones that were built, were built during the military. And if they are not working well, why can’t they build new ones everywhere so that we do not export crude anymore? We refine more and make more money than we have now.

In 1965, Malaysia came here to take our palm oil seeds, today, Malaysia is making more money from palm oil than we are struggling to make from crude oil. It does not make sense. We need leadership that has a moral fibre to stand and say this is wrong. We need to forge ahead.

What is your take on the controversy heralding toll gate along Lekki-Epe expressway?

I lived in London and America for a while and there are tolls everywhere. I have not limited myself to Lagos State in the pronouncement I made, it is a general thing. They are bringing all the tolls back but my statement is not limited to Lagos State.

If good roads are being constructed and to maintain it in the years to come, tolls are being taken, no sensible citizen will complain. If citizens cry out, governments must explain to them and not to send people to beat them and kill them, that would be tyranny.

The people have a reason for crying out, it does not matter who is in power, whether progressive or conservative. Our citizens are not incapable of reasoning and many of them will gladly pay tax. But when people cannot talk anymore and government does not have the grace to explain, anarchy is on the way.[/b]

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/12/oil-subsidy-removal-i’ll-lead-sng-to-protest-if-tunde-bakare/

Bakare! Why can't the man just give up this crap civil rights thing and stick to his church? He is dissapointing many with his numerous bandwagon publicity stunts.

^^

I wasted my time reading that article.

Bitterness breeds emptiness!! Hollow speech!
If Bakare can just mention his contributions(besides protesting and fighting) to our collective development, I'll begin to listen to him.

Pastor Bakare has once again shown how men of integrity ought to lead. I didn't hear those corruot politicians shouting "why cant you stick to your church. . .", when you went all the way to Abuja to free Jonathan from the shackles mount on him by Turai.



We know, you are with the masses, and so shall we be with you. It is only few like us, with so much burden of the common men around us, knows the effect of neglecting the downtrodden.
God bless you.

^^ Bakare would still make much more sense even when he is long gone than the first commenter even if he lived a 1000 years a 1000 times on earth!

^
The first poster is just a crook and opportunist looking for what to eat, by supporting evil

I boldly claim that, 10 minutes of Bakare is morethan 10000000 billion years of Beaf & co .
In a more civilized country, the likes of Beaf & co are hunted down like wild beast.

Your comparision is nearly impossible, more like putting Jesus and Judas on the page.

I support everything bakare has said except his subtle suggestion that boko haram should get amnesty because the militants got it and comparing lekki toll gate issue to what is obtainable in the US and the UK. The raw naked will of the common man is a terrifying sight. I pray this government doesn't let it get that far

Bakare is a man who loves Nigeria. Only time shall tell.

Rhino.5dm:

^
The first poster is just a crook and opportunist looking for what to eat, by supporting evil

I boldly claim that, 10 minutes of Bakare is morethan 10000000 billion years of Beaf & co .
In a more civilized country, the likes of Beaf & co are hunted down like wild beast.

Your comparision is nearly impossible, more like putting Jesus and Judas on the page.

Damn.

Bakare! Why can't the man just give up this crap civil rights thing and stick to his church? He is dissapointing many with his numerous bandwagon publicity stunts.

@beaf,
this same CRAP brought jonathan to power and we will watch this same CRAP SEND HIM PACKING.
when truth is on board, only insults can change the situation because you lack what to say.
pick his words one after the other and digest then carefully and u will see nothing but the truth.
spending N92b on security will never ever bring peace but JUSTICE will.
look at all the countries of the world where you have peace and security, it is not just because the govt spend a lot of money but there must be JUSTICE for peace to reign.
whosoever tells u that nigerians will continue watching pdp and their wards steal nigeria dry is either a liar or a deciet.
if saddam and gaddafi could go down in the presence of all their powers, jonathan will surely be a small mountain to climb.
nigerians are really suffering and we must die to live.
their families will not know peace and they will not live enjoy their loots.
the bible says, THERE IS NO PEACE FOR THE WICKED.
a man whose wife is corrupt can never ever solve the corruption problems of nigeria because charity must start from home.
if those stealing billions from the public offices are over-looked just to steal the fuel subsidy which is the only thing we benefit from our mineral resources, God will not let that happen in nigeria.
how much does it cost to build refineries if these criminals really want to help nigerians?

Hope he is really ready to lead us?
Why did Bakare not answer this question 'How do u separate ur stand from that of the CPC on fuel subsidy remova?'

fingers crossed.

pastor turned politician.but why must he be praying for our president to cut off his head?man of God indeed!

Am with bakare on this. He spoke well.

Threat and threat everywhere, from boko haram to labour and civil societies for which nigeria is at the receiving end. If people have alternative idea to that of goverment, they should canvass and lobby it through d power of superior logic than name dropping and resort to threat which only compound our sufferings. According to the isreali PM, leaders must see reality d way it is and not d way it should be. As a nation we are still lost in this oil mentality that supposes that being an oil producing nation, we dont need to make any for sacrifice the things we want, all things should be free. (may be that is d way it should be), but d reality of today arising from decades of wastage and corruption couple with d enormous challenges of d size of resources required to develop all critical sectors of our nation to be in position  to support our aspiration detects that making sacrifices is inevitable. We may struggle with the issue of timing and trust (which should then engage our debate), but using our current suffering as an excuse to encourage us to do NOTHING, all in d name of being an oil producing nation is the mantality that has enslaved us too long and is not supported by d realities that face us today.

We need more of Bakares.

PapaBrowne:

Bitterness breeds emptiness!! Hollow speech!
If Bakare can just mention his contributions(besides protesting and fighting) to our collective development, I'll begin to listen to him.

Beaf:

Bakare! Why can't the man just give up this crap civil rights thing and stick to his church? He is dissapointing many with his numerous bandwagon publicity stunts.

Perhaps you two would be happy for everyone to do what we have always done i.e lie prostrate wringing our hands while the incompetent and compromised Government of the day (determined to shaft ordinary Nigerians) get its ways. You guys are wasting you time with your one-sided take on issues that is very obvious to the forum. When Bakare led the SNG in favour of GEJ, you had no problem with him then. Today, he is "bitter" and practising "crap civil rights".

Thank god Nigerians are beginning to understand that evil thrives when good men do nothing. To that end, one has to praise the efforts of Bakare. Savvy Nigerians know why GEJ is pushing the subsidy issue. He is a 'dead on arrival' President who is banned from attempting to raise funds from anything that affects the interests of the AGIPs and "owners of Nigeria". Notable that subsidy will not affect major or genuine marketers and buddies of GEJ like Otedola et al. Only ordinary Nigerians will lose out and so it must be for a President who cannot seek funds where, very obviously, he should look at first and foremost.

Fuel subsidy will not be removed.

otokx:

Fuel subsidy will not be removed.

Are you 1 of the cartels milking Nigerians?

1 thing am sure of, the man PTB loves Nigeria, you all can't deny that.

Beaf:

Bakare! Why can't the man just give up this crap civil rights thing and stick to his church? He is dissapointing many with his numerous bandwagon publicity stunts.

But Pastor Oritsajefor a good man for supporting the satanic subsidy removal. Bakare to stick to church and Oritsajefor to stick to ASO ROCK. Nigeria will never excel if people like you govern us. Apart from you are a distraction, I also see you as nothing good can come from your head. You can misled a good man.

May God save those people you are working for. Amin.

Subsidy is Gone!!

God Bless Jonathan/PDP

I am supporting the "removal" of the so called subsidy.

Few of my reasons are as follows:
1. Greater percentage of Nigerians are greedy and unpatriotic. Any establishment owned by the government is seen as cow to milk. This was why Nitel failed. Where Nitel failed, MTN, Startcoms, Glo, Zain, Etisalat, etc have succeeded. This is why NEPA\PHCN has failed. Nepa officials sabotage the establishment because "na government thing". Who vandalises NEPA installations? Where do they sell the stolen items? Who buys the stolen items?

2. Privatising to the downstream sector of the petroleum industry is what is referred to as "removal of subsidy". Our refineries are not working because of sabotage. Workers in those places from the top to bottom are not interested to make things work. They are interested in getting rich quick. Those who want to play patriotic are either killed or frustrated out. The private sector cannot play a big role now, because government is in charge. Let government remove her hands, prepare a level playing field and see what the private sector can do.

3. The suffering and the hardship will only happen like that of the GSM. MTN sold a SIM card for N20,000 when they started, today it is sold for N100. Talk about the power of competition. Competition will surely force down price of petroleum products. No marketer will ever hoard fuel anymore. He will want to sell quickly and buy another one. Marketers will drag for customers. There will be promos. When MTN was behaving like a shylock, people were asking the government to do something about the price, but what happened? It happened naturally.

4. Private and working refineries will start springing up. Most of the people benefiting from the subsidy madness have the power to do refineries, but now they make more money through subsidy without doing any work. Mobil has the capacity to build a refinery in Nigeria. But they will prefer that subsidy should stay. Subsidy is less work and more money for them.

5. There will massive employment opportunities because people will have the opportunity to play at any level. The control from NNPC must be broken. The so called PPMC (for pricing and marketing) should be disbanded. The other day, a ship which loaded fuel from Port Harcourt refinery was caught at Lagos with papers claiming the same product was imported.

I can go on and on. I am among the common man struggling to make ends meet. I am typing this with a generator because there is no supply from PHCN. Parents pay money for their children to be promoted or admitted. Even some people in Nairaland here might be beneficiaries of such “parenting”. What a great citizens such people would become?.
The military has never allowed Nigeria to grow since independence. What we are suffering is years of military (mis) rule. It is much easier to destroy than to build.
Yet, I see it as a shame that when OBJ was there, we mourned over his insensitivity and here have someone who is listening and we are calling him a coward. It seems some people are just critics for the sake of it. It seems in the world of critics, they always see only the opposite. So give them white, they will cry for black and then give them black, they will cry for white.

So Pastor Bakare sees nothing wrong with tolls? Won't it bring hardship on the people just like the subsidy?

Is Pastor Bakare in this country at all? The bombers of the recent times were offered amnesty which they have rejected. So would you blame the government?

His passion is okay, but he should be careful lest it carry him overboard. The last time I checked the Bible, we are encouraged to pray for those in authority and that prayer is not for them to "cut of their heads".

[size=16pt]The Real Cost Of Fuel (without Subsidy) In Nigeria[/size]

By Izielen Agbon Izielen Agbon

On December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil filling station on Old Aba Road in Port Harcourt , you would be able to buy a litre of petrol for 65 naira or $1.66 per gallon at an exchange rate of $1/N157 and 4 litres per gallon. This is the official price. The government claims that this price would have been subsidized at N73/litre and that the true price of a litre of petrol in Port Harcourt is N138/litre or $3.52 per gallon.

They are therefore determined to remove their subsidy and sell the gallon at $3.52. But, On December 10, 2011, if you stopped at the Mobil Gas station on E83rd St and Flatlands Avenue in Brooklyn, New York, USA, you would be a able to buy a gallon of petrol for $3.52/gallon. Both gallons of petrol would have been refined from Nigerian crude oil. The only difference would be that the gallon in New York was refined in a US North East refinery from Nigerian crude exported from the Qua Iboe Crude Terminal in Nigeria while the Port Harcourt gallon was either refined in Port Harcourt or imported. The idea that a gallon of petrol from Nigerian crude oil cost the same in New York as in Port Harcourt runs against basic economic logic. Hence, Nigerians suspect that there is something irrational and fishy about such pricing. What they would like to know is the exact cost of 1 litre of petrol in Nigeria .

We will answer this question in the simplest economic terms despite the attempts of the Nigerian government to muddle up the issue. What is the true cost of a litre of petrol in Nigeria ? The Nigerian government has earmarked 445000 barrel per day throughput for meeting domestic refinery products demands. These volumes are not for export. They are public goods reserved for internal consumption. We will limit our analysis to this volume of crude oil. At the refinery gate in Port Harcourt, the cost of a barrel of Qua Iboe crude oil is made up of the finding /development cost ($3.5/bbl) and a production/storage /transportation cost of $1.50 per barrel.

Thus, at $5 per barrel, we can get Nigerian Qua Iboe crude to the refining gates at Port Harcourt and Warri. One barrel is 42 gallons or 168 litres. The price of 1 barrel of petrol at the Depot gate is the sum of the cost of crude oil, the refining cost and the pipeline transportation cost. Refining costs are at $12.6 per barrel and pipeline distribution cost are $1.50 per barrel. The Distribution Margins (Retailers, Transporters, Dealers, Bridging Funds, Administrative charges etc) are N15.49/litre or $16.58 per barrel. The true cost of 1 litre of petrol at the Mobil filling station in Port Harcourt or anywhere else in Nigeria is therefore ($5 +$12.6+$1.5+$16.6) or $35.7 per barrel . This is equal to N33.36 per litre compared to the official price of N65 per litre. Prof. Tam David West is right. There is no petrol subsidy in Nigeria . Rather the current official prices are too high. Let us continue with some basic energy economics.

The government claims we are currently operating our refineries at 38.2% efficiency. When we refine a barrel of crude oil, we get more than just petrol. If we refine 1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil, we will get 45 gallons of petroleum products. The 45 gallons of petroleum products consist of 4 gallons of LPG, 19.5 gallons of Gasoline, 10 gallons of Diesel, 4 gallons of Jet Fuel/Kerosene, 2.5 gallons of Fuel Oil and 5 gallons of Bottoms. Thus, at 38.2% of refining capacity, we have about 170000 bbls of throughput refined for about 13.26 million litres of petrol, 6.8 million litres of diesel and 2.72 million litres of kerosene/jet fuel.

This is not enough to meet internal national demand. So, we send the remaining of our non-export crude oil volume (275000 barrels per day) to be refined abroad and import the petroleum product back into the country. We will just pay for shipping and refining. The Nigerian government exchanges the 275000 barrels per day with commodity traders (90000 barrels per day to Duke Oil, 60000 barrels per day to Trafigura (Puma Energy), 60000 barrels per day to Societe Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR) in Abidjan, Ivory Coast and 65000 barrels per days to unknown sources) in a swap deal. The landing cost of a litre of petrol is N123.32 and the distribution margins are N15.49 according to the government. The cost of a litre is therefore (N123.32+N15.49) or N138.81 . This is equivalent to $3.54 per gallon or $148.54 per barrel. In technical terms, one barrel of Nigerian crude oil has a volume yield of 6.6% of AGO, 20.7% of Gasoline, 9.5% of Kerosene/Jet fuel, 30.6% of Diesel, 32.6% of Fuel oil / Bottoms when it is refined.

Using a netback calculation method, we can easily calculate the true cost of a litre of imported petrol from swapped oil. The gross product revenue of a refined barrel of crude oil is the sum of the volume of each refined product multiplied by its price. Domestic prices are $174.48/barrel for AGO, $69.55/barrel for Gasoline (PMS or petrol), $172.22/barrel for Diesel Oil, $53.5/barrel for Kerosene and $129.68/barrel for Fuel Oil. Let us substitute the government imported PMS price of $148.54 per barrel for the domestic price of petrol/gasoline. Our gross product revenue per swapped barrel would be (174.48*0.066 +148.54*0.207+172.22*0.306+ 53.5*0.095+129.68*0.326) or $142.32 per barrel. We have to remove the international cost of a barrel of Nigerian crude oil ($107 per barrel) from this to get the net cost of imported swapped petroleum products to Nigerian consumers. The net cost of swapped petroleum products would therefore be $142.32 -$107 or $35.32 per barrel of swapped crude oil. This comes out to be a net of $36.86 per barrel of petrol or N34.45 per litre.

This is the true cost of a litre of imported swapped petrol and not the landing cost of N138 per litre claimed by the government. The pro-subsidy Nigerian government pretends the price of swapped crude oil is $0 per barrel (N0 per litre) while the resulting petroleum products is $148.54 per barrel (N138 per litre). The government therefore argues that the “subsidy” is N138.81-N65 or N73.81 per litre. But, if landing cost of the petroleum products is at international price ($148.54 per barrel), then the take-off price of the swapped crude oil should be at international price ($107 per barrel). This is basic economic logic outside the ideological prisms of the World Bank. The traders/petroleum products importers and the Nigerian government are charging Nigerians for the crude oil while they are getting it free.

So let us conclude this basic economic exercise. If the true price of 38.2% of our petrol supply from our local refinery is N33.36/litre and the remaining 61.8% has a true price of N34.45 per litre, then the average true price is (0.382*33.36+0.618*34.45) or N34.03 per litre. The official price is N65 per litre and the true price with government figures is about N34 per litre (even with our moribund refineries).

There is therefore no petrol subsidy. Rather, there is a high sales tax of 91.2% at current prices of N65 per litre. The labor leaders meeting the President should go with their economists. They should send economists and political scientists as representatives to the Senate Committee investigating the petroleum subsidy issue. There are many expert economists and political scientists in ASUU who will gladly represent the view of the majority. The labor leaders should not let anyone get away with the economic fallacy that the swapped oil is free while its refined products must be sold at international prices in the Nigerian domestic market.

The government should explain at what price the swapped crude oil was sold and where the money accruing from these sales have been kept. We have done this simple economic analysis of the Nigerian petroleum products market to show that there is no petrol subsidy what so ever. In the end, this debate on petrol subsidy and the attempt of the government to transfer wealth from the Nigerian masses to a petrol cabal will be decided in the streets. Nigerian workers, farmers, students, market women, youths, unemployed, NGO and civil society as a whole should prepare for a long harmattan season of protracted struggle. They should not just embark on 3 days strike/protests after which the government reduces the hiked petroleum prices by a few Nairas. They must embark upon in a sustainable struggle that will lead to fundamental changes. Let us remove our entire political subsidy from the government and end this petroleum products subsidy debate once and for all. It is time to bring the Arab Spring south.

Izielen Agbon Izielen Agbon writes from Dallas, Texas. izielenagbon@yahoo.com

He is former HOD , Petroleum Engineering Dept, former ASUU chairman, University of Ibadan, trained many operators in nation’s energy industry with pratical experience on our practices and policy focus in the last 20yrs

jmaine:

@ Noble . . . Your points as to why fuel subsidy should be removed is quite agreeable . .but i feel your GSM logic can not be applied fully here with respect to the pain the initial removal would cause

Scenario A:
Most Nigerians were not used to accessing the telecom service regularly due to it's exorbitant costs . . and when they (telecom operators) came . .it was still seen as the thing for the rich cos it was still viewed as being expensive . . Neutrality still at play by most . .Not denying the fact that we were not distressed with their appaling service yet exorbitant cost . .

Scenario B:
In the fuel subsidy case . .Nigerians are used to buying relatively cheap fuel and the spiral inflation the fuel subsidy removal would cause would be felt by most Nigerians except the a comfortable few who would not really feel the impacts . . and they were part of those who were the first few to embrace the toxic prizing of the telecom entrant . . .

Thanks for your observation. I thought of it too very well that we are crying only because we are used to buying it at N65. So the jump in price would be mean.

In terms of how Nigerians will react, yes I agree that my GSM theory will not work. Nigerians are already reacting.

In terms of dealing with the problem from the root, this GSM theory will work and it is for now the only available solution.

Something is wrong with out thought pattern. If Mr. President will announce today that his goverment wants to build 3 new refineries, he would only succed in creating more problems. First, where will the refineries be sited? Two, who and who would be in the baord of directors. Ethnic/religious sentiments will kill it. We as Nigerians are the cause of our problem. At elsewhere, I have stated that Nigeria is not working, going back to the regions will help. Coinsider it if Mobil wants to build a refinery. Where it would be sited, who and who would be incharge won't be arise. They will simply advertise and emply the best.

My hope is that Mr. President should insist on this removal but they should work hard to educate Nigerians. Yet, there are those who know the truth whom this removal will short change and they will do all they can to frustrate his efforts. It is a shame.

Why not leave beaf alone. Or what more do you expect from someone on GEJ payroll

even if bakare does d right thing, i cant be under his umbrella,

he dun already fall ma hand

pastor tunde bakare is on point.

ttt