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A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran / WAR: US Confirms Israeli Strike On Russian Missiles In SYRIA!! / Israel Plans Nuclear Strike On Iran (2) (3) (4)

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A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by odumorun1: 4:17pm On Feb 26, 2012
As every boy whose ever been in a playground knows, the more threats a school yard bully makes, the less confident he really is of having his way. If he really has the ability to thrash you, he'll get on with it rather than just talk about it. The louder the bark, less potency of any potential bite.

The last few months have been dominated by the threats of military action by the west and an increasignly bristling Israel against Iran over its nuclear programme. For a country known more for its military bite than its diplomatic bark, whose greatest victories have been won by surprise preemptive action, Israel's almost hysterical, albeit verbal reaction to Iran's defiance , its increasingly bellicose threats suggest its real weakness exceeds it actual strength. It protests too much The god cop bad cop routine of the US and its Israeli client state, an act which casts the global superpower as the more restrained, more thoughtful if equally determined of the two nations,straining with increasing difficulty to restrain its more aggressive, possibly more dangerous junior partner is becoming a bit tired, a bit too threadbare.

The drumbeats of war from Tel Aviv and Washingtonian now seem more of a deliberate ploy to drown out serious questions of the actual military options on the table and whether they will yeild anything beyond a big noisy bang

Far from suggesting an all powerful alliance with a range of, for the Iranians, terrifying options, a close inspection of the situation reveals beneath the bluster, that the west's military options are severely limited and very unlikely even if they are unleashed to serve the purpose intended and bring about the outcome desired. Because if the Iranian regime really wants a nuclear weapon, as the west says they do only their overthrow will prevent them from getting one. The most likely form of any military action against Tehran will be an air assault and missile campaign from Israel and the Western aircraft carriers and submarines gathering off the Iranian coast. That will undoubtedly do a lot of damage, the ability of the US, Britain, and Israel to dominate the Iranian sky and hit targets at will on the ground is beyond question. But that begs the question rather than answers it – no government in the history of war has ever been overthrown by a bombing campaign alone.

An air campaign that leaves the clerical regime intact and it will leave it not only intact, but even cohesive, as its various factions, faced with an existential threat coalesce under its most bellicose and hardline party, will make the regime stronger and its opponents far weaker, as the people rally behind it and against opponents who would be easily labeled as foreign agents and fifth columnists.

To overthrow the Shia regime in Iran, a far more formidable, more entrenched and internationally more influential regime than Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya ever where, and end without question its supposed aspiration to nuclear technology will require a full scale ground invasion of the country by western forces. To successfully pull off such a conquest, of a powerful, well armed nation of at least 70 million people with no easily exploitable sectarian divisions (like Iraq and Afghanistan) whose homogeneous people, whatever their views of their own leaders are united by decades of mistrust and even hatred of the west, would require at the very least half a million troops to win the initial conventional war and millions more to sustain what will without doubt be a violently opposed subsequent occupation. it will require the major western powers like the UK, US and France to consider and introduce some form of conscription in their countries.

This will be a fraught and for them very dangerous option. Forcing young men and women into the army to fight unpopular wars would open the major western powers to social upheaval and even potential insurrection the likes of what have not been seen in Europe and America since the Vietnam and Algerian wars, social convulsions which bankrupted America morally and politically for a generation and brought France to the brink of revolution and civil war. It is not a route that will be taken lightly.

There is a strain of hypocrisy in present day martial western societies where all classes applaud the 'sacrifices' of our boys in uniform as long as this sacrifice is limited to some social layers and not others. Armies in North America and Europe recruit their soldiers from their most marginalized and powerless social classes, the bottom 15 – 20% . who have little education, less prospects, no credit cards, don't vote, lack the organisation and education to organise campaigns, and have negligible social and political influence. The people who can be ignored. Conscription will naturally target those who can't

As in Vietnam it will force into uniform the kids of the socially powerful and potentially combustible. The corporate lawyers child, offspring of the trade union official, the comfortable engineer, the skilled worker, the successful journalists Youngsters who have a future – if that happens barricades will spring up on the streets manned by the very people who now solemnly line the same routes to 'honor' the war dead, when the 'heroes' are other peoples children. We all love a dead hero when it's someone else's son

So what options are left to the west. What is usually ignored by a lot of commentary on Iran has been the reduced military capacity and credibility of the US since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Americans lost the war in Iraq, retreating from the country with its enemies there, the Shia and Sunni militias, still under arms. The US and its allies are also loosing the war in Afghanistan where they have given up any real hope of militarily defeating the Taliban and have been forced to name a date of departure with the shooting still going on. The Nazi's surrendered in the 40's before the allies put down their guns

The inability of the US and its allies to impose anything resembling their will on Iraq, Afghanistan and as is increasingly becoming obvious, post Gaddafi Libya, is what has partly increased Iranian defiance in the face of western threats and intimidation. Like every career, bullying requires a sound track record of real achievement. The American CV is not in good shape.

An intense bombing campaign could put back the Iranian nuclear programme but it won't stop it, it will probably intensify it. Impoverishing the nation through sanctions and placing it under a state of siege will play into the clerics hands by justifying the need for nuclear weapons and energy.

Ten years ago 3 countries in the world were condemned for their alleged intention to build nuclear weapons Two of them ended their nuclear programmes. Saddam Husseion's Iraq and Mohammed Qaddafi’s Libya. Both were invaded by the west after they did so, with both leaders, humiliated, killed and dumped in paupers graves. The last one, North Korea, has not been attacked. The Persians in Iran are an ancient people they are bound to learn the lessons of history.

Still it will be foolish to rule out an American or Israeli attack, having come so far, it will be difficult for both nations to back down without loosing face. But a ground assault can be ruled out and its absence will mean nothing will be achieved. For the Iranians to back down after a bombing campaign will shatter the regimes credibility and will likely lead to its overthrow. It will have no choice but to stand firm and look for ways of hitting back.

Whatever way you look at it the options for the west are not good. Even if Syria falls and Iran's chief ally in the middle east Assad is toppled, the Iranians who were gifted Iraq by the US invasion will simply intensify their efforts there to eradicate all remaining western influence while at the same time working closer with the Taliban to hasten the end of the western occupation of Afghanistan. The likelihood of a militant Sunni regime taking power in Damascus if Assad's secular Baathist regime falls, will actually worsen the situation for Israel as the increasing assertiveness of militant Wahabism, in Libya, Egypt, Pakistan, and now Syria poses a far greater threat to Israel than the anti west but still pragmatic Shia regimes in Iran, Syria and Iraq. The need for these new regimes to pacify their street means the temptation to reopen the old wounds with Israel could prove irresistible. Revolutions are always followed by wars.

Contrary to what most people believe such a war is not likely to be started by the Iranians or even involve them.

Western influence in the middle east and its ability to influence events there have never really been lower.
Re: A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by Nobody: 11:12am On Feb 27, 2012
I do not feel your analogy on this situation with the school yard bully quite hit the nail on the head. . .

In contrast the school yard bully which is israel isn't making threats. . .he is like actually advancing towards you with molded fist and weapons, charging like a ram, jumping here and there feeling high and intoxicated with what it is just about to do to you. . .but is being help back by teachers and superiors asking him to chill, telling him its not time yet. . .

I hope you understand that just lastweek USA and UK still spoke up and advised Israel not to attack Iran yet. . .
You definitely what such war would do to USA's economy whose very shaky at present, and with the election before us, you know how it will affect or ruin their political agenda.

Contrary to your views above, Israel isn't takin this war the war USA might appear to be taking it or have handled other wars. . .
USA might be fighting for their own personal interest and power. . .
But I hope you know that Israel amidst this great threat to its existence isn't fighting for anything but sheer SURVIVAL. . .

Do you remember those calls from the Iranain president like hitler to wipe Israel off the map, off the earth,
Think about it. . .give a nuclear weapon to such an iranian regime. . .would jerusalem or other densely populated Israeli cities feel safe?. . .

Israel is at war for survival, and if it would attack Iran, it won't be difficult to achieve their immediate aim, which is to bomb all iranian nuclear sites.

The attack would be a surprise one, from the skies, hundreds of planes hovering. . .

However when this happens, they have just ignited this war that we all have been discussing about. No doubt there will be great consequencies worldwide.
I won't be surprised if boko haram and others join in and make it a religious war, launching attacks from the north to the west.
Re: A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by Nobody: 12:02pm On Feb 27, 2012
Brilliant analysis. The U.S will fail if they try to attack Iran. That will be the end of that Nation. trust me.
Re: A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by odumorun1: 11:29pm On Feb 27, 2012
Do you remember those calls from the Iranian president like Hitler to wipe Israel off the map, off the earth,
Think about it. . .give a nuclear weapon to such an Iranian regime. . .would Jerusalem or other densely populated Israeli cities feel safe?. . .


I don't think we should confuse rhetoric with reality. Why would Iran launch nuclear weapons against Israel, when the immediate result will be the the total destruction of the Iranian nation by a massive nuclear retaliation by Israel's western allies. Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons yet nobody mentions this. They had started acquiring nuclear weapons even before the Iranian revolution in 1979.

Iran has no history of aggression in the middle east. Iran has not seized the land of its neighbors. Israel has occupied in flagrant defiance of international law, the Golan heights (Syria) and the west bank and Jerusalem (Palestine)

Israel claims this land by allusions to the bible. But the biblical Israelite were from Palestine. The current isrealites are immigrants from Russia, Europe and North America.

A perfect analogy will be African Americans tracing their ancestry back to modern day Oshogbo or Onitsha, forming an army invading these countries and taking them over on the spurious grounds that their fore fathers lived there hundreds of years ago before they were forcibly removed by the trans Atlantic slave trade.

The Jews were immigrants in Palestine, accepted by the dominant Arabs there after fleeing persecution in Europe. With the support of their erstwhile tormentors they grew strong, seized the lands of their hosts and drove them out to refugee camps scattered all over the Arab world. Imagine what would happen if Nigerians in Peckham in London, grew stronger than the native English people drove them out of SE London and declared the place the independent republic of Odua or Biafra.

would that be acceptable
Re: A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by jmoore(m): 11:13am On Feb 29, 2012
Israel will not sit down and wait for the another holocaust to happen. It will attack.

Israel is occupying it's own land
Re: A Western/israeli Strike On Iran Will Achieve Nothing by aurenflani: 12:07am On Mar 03, 2012
i hate it when ppl justified the aggression & murders being committed by d zionists as acceptable just because they read in their bible that d jews have been promised israel. what do such ppl make of d feelings of arab & palestinian christians who were driven out from their towns & villages & forced to live as refugees? or is it that the christian religion is racist and supremacist in d case of jews & non jews? can someone pls enlighten me as what is clear at the moment is "animal farm" is d concept in scenario.

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