The PDP lost two very eminent personalities in the persons of Obi and kwankwaso recently,to the labour party and new Nigeria people's party respectively.

The implications of their entry into the race is turning out to be an indirect projection of Tinubu's presidency in the long run unless they merge.

The Peter Obi frenzy will not go beyond the South South and South East. These are the PDP strongholds in the south originally. Obi will end up having a deadly bite on what is supposed to be a bloc vote for the PDP in the SS and SE thereby leaving the PDP with nothing substantial from the South. As it stands today,the only part of the South that will deliver a bloc vote is the South West. They clearly have not bought into the Obi frenzy for obvious reasons.

Kwankwaso like Obi will not go far outside his region of core north. He'll again like Obi have a huge bite off the votes of Atiku in the core north. Although Atiku is expected to win the north east on aggregate, he will surely lose in places like Yobe and Bornu. Apc governors in the north and Buhari will work assiduously to get votes for their party, the kwankwansiya movement will get its own share and Atiku also his own share of the northern votes.The implication is that there'll be no bloc vote for anybody in the core north this time.

The beautiful fertile bride in the presidential race will be the north central region. They've neither bought into the Obi frenzy nor shown much enthusiasm for any particular candidate or party. I think any candidate or party that is able to win big in the north central will have the brightest chance of winning the presidential election. Obviously this region will be split between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP.

In summary, the 2023 presidential election is strictly between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP. Kwankwaso of NNPP and Obi of LP are mere spoilers who can't go far, beyond their immediate regions and fringes. Their only chance is a merger which is most unlikely because of the overly ambitious personalities involved.

By the way, this write up is not for the emotional political neophytes on nairaland.

Seunmsg, mynd44, lalasticlala

Someone that understand politics will believe that.

Tinubu will get the highest number of votes of all the contestants in the North West. That is sealed already.

By the way ; Please, don't expose our winning strategy. "A divided opposition is no opposition"

Vote TINUBU 2023. Vote APC.

Lol...keep dreaming. By January next year more than 90% of northern governors would decamp to PDP and NNPP. The only zone tinubu has in his bag is the South West. Any votes he's looking for outside the south west would be less than 20%. that's reality.

Northerners would sabotage his presidential ambition.

2019 when Obi, Atiku ,Kwankazo were strongly together in pdp Apc won with long margin. now APC paid Obi and kwankazo to destroy pdp and split there strength to 3. lp,nnpp,pdp. all SOUTHERN youths and elites wey no like Apc go vote obi WHILE most northern pdp will vote nnpp. ApC vote is not Divided they even have more governors than 2019. TINUBU IS OUR NEXT PRESIDENT But people hate the truth. vote nobi noise nah strategy

How people like OP manages to get high as early as this is one of the seven wonders of the world.

Say no to cheap drugs subsidized by the Lord of drugs himself.

We've seen many people like OP before. This was how one man like OP in the bible brought bear parlour analysis when Elisha prophesied the end of famine in Israel. What happened to him? He saw the prophecy fulfilled with his eyes but was never a partaker.

OP, repent, and go and sin no more.

Obi has a great chance of winning the north-central because most of the people there were affected by herdsmen crisis . So based on sympathy and ineptitude they'll definitely want a change in leadership ...even if it means voting for the opposite

All these stewpid analysis. North Central is Obi 100%. A large junk of west will vote Obi. There are silent followers in core north.

We have only campaigned do 2 weeks and gathered this momentum. Next few months will give you a better picture.

Obi has free advertisers, volunteers not bought with money. This is priceless. How many politicians - Atiku, Tinubu, or even Kwankwaso will people volunteer for free? We have volunteers even in core North for Obi. How many free volunteers does Kwankwaso have in South and North Central? Zero

Afonjastistics.
"Obi and Kwankwoso are helping tinubu in the sense Obi will pack the vote of the East & Kwankwoso will pack the vote of the North and Atiku will get the votes of SS which will help tinubu pack all the votes of the East, North, SS and SW which will make him our president of Irabiji cemetery yen yen yen"

Stupidity exists in certain people's lineage

mesonet:
All these stewpid analysis. North Central is Obi 100%. A large junk of west will vote Obi. There are silent followers in core north.

We have only campaigned do 2 weeks and gathered this momentum. Next few months will give you a better picture.

Obi has free advertisers, volunteers not bought with money. This is priceless. How many politicians - Atiku, Tinubu, or even Kwankwaso will people volunteer for free? We have volunteers even in core North for Obi. How many free volunteers does Kwankwaso have in South and North Central? Zero

Leave them let them keep dreaming.

What they don't understand is that the core North wouldn't support tinubu, they've already made it clear that they don't like him after his emi lokon outburst.

This decamping is just the beginning, by next January APC would become a regional party.

I agree with you but don't forget that kwankwazo will cause serious damage to Tinubu votes in the North expecially in kano and katsina where apc use to get bloc votes

VoteTinubu2023:
Tinubu will get the highest number of votes of all the contestants in the North West. That is sealed already.

By the way ; Please, don't expose our winning strategy. "A divided opposition is no opposition"

Vote TINUBU 2023. Vote APC.

You think North West is south west? You really think theyll leave Northerners(NW, NE) that are flagbearing numerous parties to vote drug lord

Yimubu is on his own.

Indispensable85:
The PDP lost two very eminent personalities in the persons of Obi and kwankwaso recently,to the labour party and new Nigeria people's party respectively.

The implications of their entry into the race is turning out to be an indirect projection of Tinubu's presidency in the long run unless they merge.

The Peter Obi frenzy will not go beyond the South South and South East. These are the PDP strongholds in the south originally. Obi will end up having a deadly bite on what is supposed to be a bloc vote for the PDP in the SS and SE thereby leaving the PDP with nothing substantial from the South. As it stands today,the only part of the South that will deliver a bloc vote is the South West. They clearly have not bought into the Obi frenzy for obvious reasons.

Kwankwaso like Obi will not go far outside his region of core north. He'll again like Obi have a huge bite off the votes of Atiku in the core north. Although Atiku is expected to win the north east on aggregate, he will surely lose in places like Yobe and Bornu. Apc governors in the north and Buhari will work assiduously to get votes for their party, the kwankwansiya movement will get its own share and Atiku also his own share of the northern votes.The implication is that there'll be no bloc vote for anybody in the core north this time.

The beautiful fertile bride in the presidential race will be the north central region. They've neither bought into the Obi frenzy nor shown much enthusiasm for any particular candidate or party. I think any candidate or party that is able to win big in the north central will have the brightest chance of winning the presidential election. Obviously this region will be split between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP.

In summary, the 2023 presidential election is strictly between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP. Kwankwaso of NNPP and Obi of LP are mere spoilers who can't go far, beyond their immediate regions and fringes. Their only chance is a merger which is most unlikely because of the overly ambitious personalities involved.

By the way, this write up is not for the emotional political neophytes on nairaland.

Are you sure about this or you don't want kwankwanso to destroy the northwest votes for Tinubu? See sense oo. Don't worry. We want all of them to contest.

IntelChief:
How people like OP manages to get high as early as this is one of the seven wonders of the world.

Say no to cheap drugs subsidized by the Lord of drugs himself.

We've seen many people like OP before. This was how one man like OP in the bible brought bear parlour analysis when Elisha prophesied the end of famine in Israel. What happened to him? He saw the prophecy fulfilled with his eyes but was never a partaker.

OP, repent, and go and sin no more.

In the end you didn't make any political sense. You belong to the category in my closing sentence- the emotional political neophytes.

FalseProphet1:
Lol...keep dreaming. By January next year more than 90% of northern governors would decamp to PDP and NNPP. The only zone tinubu has in his bag is the South West. Any votes he's looking for outside the south west would be less than 20%. that's reality.

Northerners would sabotage his presidential ambition.

This one also belong to the category in my closing sentence- the emotional political neophytes.

Esama:
Someone that understand politics will believe that.

how

FalseProphet1:
Lol...keep dreaming. By January next year more than 90% of northern governors would decamp to PDP and NNPP. The only zone tinubu has in his bag is the South West. Any votes he's looking for outside the south west would be less than 20%. that's reality.

Northerners would sabotage his presidential ambition.

Maybe the dullards are making the analysis based on North West and South west have WEST in common

mesonet:
All these stewpid analysis. North Central is Obi 100%. A large junk of west will vote Obi. There are silent followers in core north.

We have only campaigned do 2 weeks and gathered this momentum. Next few months will give you a better picture.

Obi has free advertisers, volunteers not bought with money. This is priceless. How many politicians - Atiku, Tinubu, or even Kwankwaso will people volunteer for free? We have volunteers even in core North for Obi. How many free volunteers does Kwankwaso have in South and North Central? Zero

obi will win every region 100%

Other candidates won’t even get 1 vote

Jashub:
Obi has a great chance of winning the north-central because most of the people there were affected by herdsmen crisis . So based on sympathy and ineptitude they'll definitely want a change in leadership ...even if it means voting for the opposite

The only place he'll do very well is Abuja.
He can't win any of Kogi,nasarawa,plateau, Niger, Kwara, Benue. Atiku and Tinubu will split the states here. He can only get pockets of votes in the region.

Very true

Indispensable85:



The only place he'll do very well is Abuja.
He can't win any of Kogi,nasarawa,plateau, Niger, Kwara, Benue. Atiku and Tinubu will split the states here.

You're just talking based on assumptions , especially in places like Benue and Plateau. People in those regions are tired of being killed and they want something better

Crixxx:


Maybe the dullards are making the analysis based on North West and South west have WEST in common

Calling them dullards is even fair, they're worse than dullards, the Senate president and even APC national chairman has expressed fears over the mass defection by APC senators in the North, and they're here saying Kwankwaso and Peter Obi would make tinubu win.

Where would tinubu get his votes from, SE is already on lock down for Obi, SS would be divided between Obi and Atiku, The whole north are deciding between Kwankwaso and Atiku and they're here saying tinubu would sweep the north.

The only place tinubu would sweep is the SW...it's a pity they've refused to face reality.

Hoelujohn:

Are you sure about this or you don't want kwankwanso to destroy the northwest votes for Tinubu? See sense oo. Don't worry. We want all of them to contest.

Kwankwaso highest votes will come from Kano. He'll only get some bites in other North West states.

I want all of them to contest too.

mesonet:
All these stewpid analysis. North Central is Obi 100%. A large junk of west will vote Obi. There are silent followers in core north.

We have only campaigned do 2 weeks and gathered this momentum. Next few months will give you a better picture.

Obi has free advertisers, volunteers not bought with money. This is priceless. How many politicians - Atiku, Tinubu, or even Kwankwaso will people volunteer for free? We have volunteers even in core North for Obi. How many free volunteers does Kwankwaso have in South and North Central? Zero

One of the emotional political neophytes

Crixxx:
Afonjastistics.
"Obi and Kwankwoso are helping tinubu in the sense Obi will pack the vote of the East & Kwankwoso will pack the vote of the North and Atiku will get the votes of SS which will help tinubu pack all the votes of the East, North, SS and SW which will make him our president of Irabiji cemetery yen yen yen"

Stupidity exists in certain people's lineage

It's easy to spot a lunatic

FalseProphet1:

Leave them let them keep dreaming.

What they don't understand is that the core North wouldn't support tinubu, they've already made it clear that they don't like him after his emi lokon outburst.

This decamping is just the beginning, by next January APC would become a regional party.

I still remember your infantile postulations about Tinubu before the Apc primary. Una nor dey ever learn. Mtcheeew

Nice analysis bro. Another advantage BAT has is he belongs to the ruling party who are hellbent in keeping power unlike PDP who be mumu in 2015. Buhari, the cabals and APC governors will work hard so as to ensure that their political strength, weaknesses and acts are protected by another 8years of APC rule

Indispensable85:



I still remember your infantile postulations about Tinubu before the Apc primary. Una nor dey ever learn. Mtcheeew

Tinubu wasn't supposed to win that primaries, he easily bought the delegates and they voted for him, everyone knows that...

Elections is different, Peter Obi would even get sympathetic votes from northerners than tinubu.

When you listen to El Rufais son and some of Buhari's aids rants on tinubu you'll understand that what IBB did to Abiola that he vowed never to handover to him despite the fact that he's victory was free and fair would be a child's play compared to the betrayal tinubu would face from them.

Olatunji1929:
I agree with you but don't forget that kwankwazo will cause serious damage to Tinubu votes in the North expecially in kano and katsina where apc use to get bloc votes

The president is expected to win his state handsomely for the APC. Don't forget Buhari influence will count in the north west too eventhough it has reduced drastically. And the North West APC governors will work for their parties too. I think the APC will still do well in the region. I do not expect kwankwaso to do too much damage outside Kano. How does he expect to take over from another north westerner? By the way I didn't see much of his influence in the North West for the PDP/Atiku in 2019. Although the PDP rallies were full of red caps but it didn't quite reflect in the votes from the region. He's an influential personality no doubt.

Indispensable85:
The PDP lost two very eminent personalities in the persons of Obi and kwankwaso recently,to the labour party and new Nigeria people's party respectively.

The implications of their entry into the race is turning out to be an indirect projection of Tinubu's presidency in the long run unless they merge.

The Peter Obi frenzy will not go beyond the South South and South East. These are the PDP strongholds in the south originally. Obi will end up having a deadly bite on what is supposed to be a bloc vote for the PDP in the SS and SE thereby leaving the PDP with nothing substantial from the South. As it stands today,the only part of the South that will deliver a bloc vote is the South West. They clearly have not bought into the Obi frenzy for obvious reasons.

Kwankwaso like Obi will not go far outside his region of core north. He'll again like Obi have a huge bite off the votes of Atiku in the core north. Although Atiku is expected to win the north east on aggregate, he will surely lose in places like Yobe and Bornu. Apc governors in the north and Buhari will work assiduously to get votes for their party, the kwankwansiya movement will get its own share and Atiku also his own share of the northern votes.The implication is that there'll be no bloc vote for anybody in the core north this time.

The beautiful fertile bride in the presidential race will be the north central region. They've neither bought into the Obi frenzy nor shown much enthusiasm for any particular candidate or party. I think any candidate or party that is able to win big in the north central will have the brightest chance of winning the presidential election. Obviously this region will be split between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP.

In summary, the 2023 presidential election is strictly between Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP. Kwankwaso of NNPP and Obi of LP are mere spoilers who can't go far, beyond their immediate regions and fringes. Their only chance is a merger which is most unlikely because of the overly ambitious personalities involved.

By the way, this write up is not for the emotional political neophytes on nairaland.

Let’s not be emotional like you said and be practical.

You admitted Peter Obi frenzy is sweeping across Southeast and Southsouth. That’s about 90% of SE votes for Peter Obi and 70% SS for him. Whatever percentage that is left is for Atiku and Tinubu.

Now, you dubiously refused to recognize the fact that there was a 1 million man match for Peter Obi in Lagos and Ibadan. There may have been other states in Southwest but I’m sure of those two states. The implication is that SW is not completely immune from the Peter Obi frenzy like you wrongly painted.

Again if Tinubu ends up going with a Muslim Muslim ticket, more Christians in the Southwest will vote against him. You know this fact. Except you want to be emotional and sentimental.

At the end, Peter Obi is getting nothing less than 30% from Southwest. This could be more but let me be circumspect.

Now, in the north, Southern Kaduna is more OBIdient than Igbos sef. Same with Plateau, Taraba, Southern Gombe, Southern Bauchi, Benue, etc. Before you argue, remind me which state priest barred faithfuls from entering the church for not having PVCs. Who do you think they want the PVCs for? Atiku and Tinubu?

So in the end, we might see Obi winning Plateau, Taraba, Benue, Southern Kaduna, Southern Gombe, Southern Bauchi, etc. That will be about 60% of North Central votes. You know this, except you wanna be emotional.

Now, if the deal with Kwankwaso materializes or even if it doesn’t and Obi gets another popular northerner as Running Mate, that will give him a little chunk of the votes of the core north too.

Calculate the percentages and that’s victory for Obi.

Now, tell us, aside Southwest, where else is Tinubu sure of votes after Kwankwaso conquered northwest?