Aiel123:

I just checked the 2019 senate polls Adamawa central in which Binani was a APC candidate
Binani totally floored the PDP'S candidate,Moddibbo Muhammed with a margin of 92K
If She could poll such numbers in the guber election,it will be catastrophic for Gov. Fintiri
The presidential election will pre determine who clinches that coveted seat
If Atiku wins Adamawa I will be certain there's no way Gov. Fintiri will lose

garfield1:



It seems you are very objective. I love apc but you know I try to be honest.I was the first to write off omo agege in delta.I never gave this woman a chance against ribadu and bindow until I saw her record and popularity.we cannot use atiku to judge her victory because atiku will win Adamawa by a good margin afterall he won buhari here.you said she won with 96,000 margin.do you know that atiku and fintiri won with 40,000 margin? Buhari won Adamawa central with 35,000 votes in 2019 but he won that same central by 100,000 in 2015.bindowo in 2019 won central with 10,000 votes.PDP stronghold in Adamawa is Adamawa south and the highest margin they won was 60,000.

Pdp strongholds in the north are madagali and michika.she has neutralized michika by picking her deputy from there.in that south,apc strongholds are mayo belwa and ganye.if this woman still picks 96,000 from Adamawa central,she will win because Adamawa south can't bring more than 70,000.she will win the north.anytime a fulani is fielded in Adamawa,they win

garfield1:



It seems you are very objective. I love apc but you know I try to be honest.I was the first to write off omo agege in delta.I never gave this woman a chance against ribadu and bindow until I saw her record and popularity.we cannot use atiku to judge her victory because atiku will win Adamawa by a good margin afterall he won buhari here.you said she won with 96,000 margin.do you know that atiku and fintiri won with 40,000 margin? Buhari won Adamawa central with 35,000 votes in 2019 but he won that same central by 100,000 in 2015.bindowo in 2019 won central with 10,000 votes.PDP stronghold in Adamawa is Adamawa south and the highest margin they won was 60,000.

Pdp strongholds in the north are madagali and michika.she has neutralized michika by picking her deputy from there.in that south,apc strongholds are mayo belwa and ganye.if this woman still picks 96,000 from Adamawa central,she will win because Adamawa south can't bring more than 70,000.she will win the north.anytime a fulani is fielded in Adamawa,they win

Aiel123:

Is Fintiri Fulani?
He is isolated now
Nyako,Abbo have pitched their tent in APC
Central will likely go to Binani
Fintiri will win South
North will be the battleground as Fintiri and the APC's running mate is from here

garfield1:


Big lie.In 2015,apc won ganye by 21,000 to 17000.apc lost numan by 9000 votes.apc won ganye in 2019 by 2000 votes.apc lost michika and madagali narrowly in 2015.apc won fufore by 24,000 votes.yesterday,you claimed that yola do not give bloc vote,another lie.just like Jo's,they give bloc votes.apc had 86000 in yola while PDP got 23,000.
In 2019,fintiri won by bloc votes and the votes came from madagali which gave 15,000,michika 12,000 and demsa which gave 13000.numan gave 8000.apc won yola by 3000 votes and fufore by 6000.they also lost mayo belwa.it simply means that PDP won because yola failed to give bloc votes perhaps because bindowo is not fulani or he is not from Adamawa central or apc worked against him.unfortunately,binani is fulani from yola and those bloc votes will likely come.she did her calculation well.michika will be neutralized,the governor will noe be left with madagali,demsa and maybe numan which can't counter the bloc votes from yola

Penguin2:


Wow!

I respect your knowledge of every part of the country, man.

I’m sure you are card carrying member of a political party (APC) and possibly a member of a strategy committee which is why you always have these figures.

asobo1:
The jos north/Bassa bye elections early this year was more like a mini census. The Muslims gave block vote to the PRP candidate while Christians voted both APC and PDP. Mind you, it was an instruction on Friday before the elections for them to vote the PRP guy in their various mosques.

Parachoko:
A lot of people wailed and called El Rufai a terrorist when he chose a Muslim as his deputy.

garfield1:


No,I have always been interested in ethnicity,politics history,statistics,geography eyc right from a tender age.I am in apc but not part of the strategy committee...I thought bindow or ribadu will win the primaries but binani surprised us.I still wrote her off against fintiri but after some background checks,she is very formidable plus Aisha is backing her...she might just humiliate fintiri

Penguin2:


And who won?

Penguin2:


We wait to see about that.

But you seem to be writing off the Atiku effect in Adamawa.

Penguin2:


We wait to see about that.

But you seem to be writing off the Atiku effect in Adamawa.

asobo1:
Ribadu is currently challenging her victory and senator Abbo's street credibility amongst the youth who massively voted for him is gone.

Penguin2:


And who won?

garfield1:


She will clear central not likely win.in north,apc controls mubi north and south and Maiha.PDP has michika,madagali.in 2019,abbo won north by 15,000 while bunus won south by 25,000.fintiri is a Muslim from madagali.

Aiel123:

It's very dicey
PDP needs Atiku now
Is central the most populated?
If yes,then I rest my case
Those areas with bloc votes I fear them whenever they support any candidate

garfield1:


Yes.I fear bloc votes.the governor nominated that pastor so that he will get bloc votes from numan side to counter yola.I think the central is the most populated though has fewer LGAs.if tinubu can get bloc votes from borno,yobe,katsina,zamfara,he will win.I dont see atiku getting bloc votes

asobo1:
See who wants to school me on Adamawa politics. A state I spent 8 years. Continue with your Google search. Binani is from Girei not Yola

Aiel123:

As for presidential election it's looking gloomy for PDP and Atiku
If I say I get hope for PDP na lie be that
Anything that will happen will happen I have learnt not to hope to much

garfield1:


Ribadu challenge is normal for a loser.tinubu and Aisha will settle everything.abbo will have no problem winning mubi and maiha

asobo1:
Abbo should be more concerned about winning his senatorial elections.

StriveHard:
binani is from fufore LGA and her husband is from girei.dont try to argue because i was born and raise in the state and currently posting right now from there

garfield1:


He is a Christian but humiliated binta in [/b]Muslim dominated mubi and maiha[b].think of what he will do to rev yohanna

garfield1:


Does atiku really have an effect electorally? You can see kwankwaso and his red cap movement and his impact in kano.you can't say same for atiku.someone that lost his unit and ward,he always struggles to control adamawa even whrn boni haruna was gov.apart from Adamawa,the other northern states atiku won are christian dominated.he lost woefully in Muslim areas.in Adamawa,christian areas gave him huge margins.it simply means that atiku is not liked by the talakawas.this time around,a lot of those Christian votes will go to obi followed by tinubu.

All I am saying is that if binani gets bloc votes from Adamawa central,it is over.in 2011,Muslim clerics campaigned against her yet she won heavily.she repeated it in 2019.it means there is something she does right.

Penguin2:


Since morning I’ve been on Facebook searching different north central states people’s forum to see what they are saying by themselves.

My first stop was Benue where I saw that if Fr Alia remains APC candidate, then there’s no need for guber election in the state. They hate Uba and everyone is saying “Yes Father”.

Then I moved to Plateau. It was difficult finding a popular Plateau forum on Facebook but from the little I was able to gather, the PDP candidate might carry the day.

From there I searched for Taraba. And I found out that APC held a sham Governorship Primaries in Taraba which gave rise to a lot of bad blood. Emmanuel Bwacha is on a wild goose chase.

In Adamawa I found out that Binani is quite popular like you said. But some others are making a case for Fintiri that his performance deserves a second tenure. Adamawa is too close to call.

Then ultimately I found out these people are all ‘OBIdient’ with some of them having Peter Obi banner as dp.

Peter Obi will North Central.

asobo1:
Meaning?

asobo1:
Ok, so she represented Girei, Yola south/north federal constituency based on her marriage to a Girei man right @Modibbo?

StriveHard:
binani is from fufore LGA and her husband is from girei.dont try to argue because i was born and raise in the state and currently posting right now from there

StriveHard:
yap

garfield1:


Your research are valid and true.PDP have the edge in plateau due to imposition but nentawa was an inec rec and knows his way around inec like t.a orji in abia.taraba is true.I supported power shift to the north or central but if bwacha can divide jukun votes esp in wukari,takum and donga,he would win because the central and north are apologetic to apc...
Peter can win nc due to christian votes but he must have bloc votes from benue and plateau because kwara and Niger will deliver for tinubu while nasarawa ,abuja and kogi can go either way...
Again,using the internet to judge the northern electorate is deceptive.most middle belters in 2019 prefered atiku but you know how it ended and it looked like atiku would share the core north with bubu

StriveHard:
binani is from fufore LGA and her husband is from girei.dont try to argue because i was born and raise in the state and currently posting right now from there