Eight weeks to the February 25, 2023 presidential election, the candidates of the four major political parties have intensified efforts to outsmart each other in a presidential race that THISDAY Election Centre says is too close to call.

As the presidential race tightens, the North-west zone has become the new battleground for the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar; that of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, and their counterparts in the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, respectively.


With eight weeks to the poll, the political scene is already charged.Excitement is also very high as more choices will be available to Nigerians than there were in 2019.Unlike in 2019 when the race was between President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku, the battle in 2023 will be between the four strong candidates.With over 22 million registered voters, being the highest among the six geopolitical zones, the North-west states of Kaduna, Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Zamfara and Jigawa have become the beautiful pride because the issue of king and kingmakers has become relevant as many see a possible run-off in which case all the four candidates will be relevant in the trade-off that will follow the first round as one of them will be the king and others the kingmakers.


The seven states, except Zamfara, have second-term governors who have nothing at stake in the presidential race though Governors Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State (APC) and Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State (PDP) are running for the Senate.

The most vigorous among these governors, it was learnt, is Bello Matawalle of Zamafara State who is battling for his political life in a second term bid.It is also believed that some of the governors, who will not be on the ballot in 2023, are not as vigorous as those who are running for the Senate.


This development has pressure on Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso especially to do more work in the North-west to secure their votes.The zone is also suffering from a high level of insecurity which can become a good campaign factor for the candidates.At the end of the day, it is who wins this critical zone that may win the election.

“North-west zone is the most critical and each of the four candidates is all-out to win the highest number of votes in the zone. It is believed that whoever wins in the zone may become the next president,” a source close to one of the leading presidential candidates told THISDAY last night.Atiku, Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso all don’t have the same chances but all of them can influence who wins especially if they go to the second round which analysts now see as possible instead of probable.


According to THISDAY Election Centre, as of today, eight weeks to the election, Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi states are trending PDP, while Zamfara and Kaduna states are trending APC.

Kano with the highest number of registered voters in the zone, is too close to call between Tinubu’s APC and Kwankwaso’s NNPP.Last week, Tinubu had to rush to President Buhari at the Presidential Villa to get the president to campaign for him in Katsina and Kano in the coming weeks to re-establish the lead.


Sokoto State governor, Tambuwal had described the North-west geopolitical zone as the real battleground for the 2023 presidential election.Apparently underestimating Kwankwaso, who hails from Kano, the Sokoto State governor had declared that since no “serious” presidential candidate emerged from the North-west region, the major parties would vigorously campaign in the region.

The governor stated that the region would be a battleground for the leading parties due to the highest number of registered voters, saying the zone could determine the outcome of the next year’s presidential election.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/12/25/with-eight-weeks-to-presidential-election-race-too-close-to-call/

Jagaban Of Africa, on your mandate we all stand gidigba

It will only reaffirm the glaring constant- Tinubu would be sworn-in on May 29, 2023

i cannot be praying for a better country and still be supporting APC and PDP, that's Foolishness in the highest other.

It's pure evil to support Buhari in 2015 and still come back to support Tinubu after all the suffering.
Are you cursed with suffering?

Planning to vote APC or PDP is not an opinion, It's pure wickedness and evil, after all the suffering Nigerians are going through.

133million people leaving in abject poverty out of 200million is not a joke!!!

The only too close to call states in North West are KANO which is between tinubu and kwankwaso, and SOKOTO between tinubu and Atiku, the remaining five states are for APC no doubt insha Allahu

People should know that numbers do not always determine who wins in Nigeria election but number of states won.
If you win all the votes in Kano and another won in ekiti and Bayelsa even with less cumulative votes to Kano with the person who won in Kano unable to get 25% if votes in Ekiti and Bayelsa, the winner of Ekiti and Bayelsa will be declared the president even with the person who won in Kano having the highest number of votes.

ImDStar:
i cannot be praying for a better country and still be supporting APC and PDP, that's Foolishness in the highest other.

It's pure evil to support Buhari in 2015 and still come back to support Tinubu after all the suffering.
Are you cursed with suffering?

Planning to vote APC or PDP is not an opinion, It's pure wickedness and evil, after all the suffering Nigerians are going through.

133million people leaving in abject poverty out of 200million is not a joke!!!

I see.

frank14011991:
The only too close to call states in North West are KANO which is between tinubu and kwankwaso, and SOKOTO between tinubu and Atiku, the remaining five states are for APC no doubt insha Allahu

Sorry, but according to ANAP poll, the most trustworthy poll in Nigeria, Atiku is the candidate to beat in Northwest and Northeast, except Kano state which Kwankwaso has locked down.
The NorthCentral on the other hand, except Kwara state, is completely in the bag for Peter Obi.
I don't know which Northern state you are giving to Tinubu.

ganisucks:


Sorry, but according to ANAP poll, the most trustworthy poll in Nigeria, Atiku is the candidate to beat in Northwest and Northeast, except Kano state which Kwankwaso has locked down.

ANAP is rubbish

tinsel:

ANAP is rubbish

Nobody takes your urchins serious.Anap was not rubbish in 2015 when they predicted Buhari to win abi

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Nobody takes your urchins serious.Anap was not rubbish in 2015 when they predicted Buhari to win abi

It was quite clear in 2015 with Buhari support from the North and ACN support. Let Peter go to the north to campaign especially north west and let us see. Why is he running from one place to another in the south?

ganisucks:


Sorry, but according to ANAP poll, the most trustworthy poll in Nigeria, Atiku is the candidate to beat in Northwest and Northeast, except Kano state which Kwankwaso has locked down.
The NorthCentral on the other hand, except Kwara state, is completely in the bag for Peter Obi.
I don't know which Northern state you are giving to Tinubu.

Mr man forget that anap rubbish, I am a northerner, I vote in kano, I am telling you what is on ground, how can you believe obi got more votes than kwankwaso in NW according to Anap

tinsel:

It was quite clear in 2015 with Buhari support from the North and ACN support. Let Peter go to the north to campaign especially north west and let us see. Why is he running from one place to another in the south?

Peter Obi will start North campaign in January, so what are you saying.And North is Overated.Jonathan didn't win North in 2011 and still won the election.North won't give block votes to any candidate this time around.Atiku, Kwankwanso would split Northern votes, so it's not a threat

Anyone that believes this can believe anything. If Obi will get SS, SE parts of south west, North Central, Kaduna South,Kebbi south with or without any vote from the north west,Obi will be president .

Jonathan became the president in 2011 without North West,ended up making North West the inec chairman, national security advisor after winning before they sent him to the canvas in 2015 in place of Buhari.

Obi is riding on Jonathan's 2011 backbone,know this and know peace.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Peter Obi will start North campaign in January, so what are you saying.And North is Overated.Jonathan didn't win North in 2011 and still won the election.North won't give block votes to any candidate this time around.Atiku, Kwankwanso would split Northern votes, so it's not a threat

Because he won South West, part of north Central, south south and south east and some good votes in the deep north.

tinsel:

ANAP is rubbish

It wasn't rubbish in 2015 and 2019. ANAP poll has come to stay, because like FIFA they don't have friends or enemies.

Very poor analysis lacking in depth and logic. Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election despite performing woefully in NW against only one major contestant. But in 2023, at least, 3 candidates are battling to split NW votes evenly among themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE and SS is more than enough to offset NW. If he now wins NC and gets above 25% in SW then he will be clearly ahead of the rest.

No contestant can possibly win more than 40% of NW, which means the zone can't determine the outcome of the election.

As it stands now, based on the fact that we have 4 major candidates, no zone can determine the outcome. If any zone has such power then it has to be SS. Now consider this, what Peter Obi gets from SE is most likely going to be higher than what Tinubu will get from SW. Also, Obi is likely to get far more votes from SW than Tinubu will hope to get from SE.

If Atiku is able to pull off at least 35% of NW votes which is very possible and Kwankwaso gets same figure, it means that Tinubu won't get more than 25% in NW.

Peter Obi is most likely the next president, everything being equal.

tinsel:

ANAP is rubbish

Sorry, ANAP polls has consistently remained the most reliable polls since return of our democracy.

The earlier you face reality that Tinubu has been unanimously rejected by all Nigerians, the better for you.

All i know is that the NW is Apcs stronghold. What does that tell you? Jigawa, katsina, kebbi and sokoto all trending pdp, according to thisday, is false.

kettykin:
Anyone that believes this can believe anything. If Obi will get SS, SE parts of south west, North Central, Kaduna South,Kebbi south with or without any vote from the north west,Obi will be president .

Jonathan became the president in 2011 without North West,ended up making North West the inec chairman, national security advisor after winning before they sent him to the canvas in 2015 in place of Buhari.

Obi is riding on Jonathan's 2011 backbone,know this and know peace.

Can Obi win all southern state except 1?
Never

MrEverest:
Very poor analysis lacking in depth and logic. Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election despite performing woefully in NW against only one major contestant. But in 2023, at least, 3 candidates are battling to split NW votes evenly among themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE and SS is more than enough to offset NW. If he now wins NC and gets above 25% in SW then he will be clearly ahead of the rest.

No contestant can possibly win more than 40% of NW, which means the zone can't determine the outcome of the election.

As it stands now, based on the fact that we have 4 major candidates, no zone can determine the outcome. If any zone has such power then it has to be SS. Now consider this, what Peter Obi gets from SE is most likely going to be higher than what Tinubu will get from SW. Also, Obi is likely to get far more votes from SW than Tinubu will hope to get from SE.

If Atiku is able to pull off at least 35% of NW votes which is very possible and Kwankwaso gets same figure, it means that Tinubu won't get more than 25% in NW.

Peter Obi is most likely the next president, everything being equal.

I really like this your analysis. To win this election all Obi needs to do is win SE & SS convincingly and do very well in south west and probably win NC. The fact Atiku and Kwankwaso are from the North has diluted the votes from the North already. Even Tinubu will also get handsome votes from the North. But none will get any block vote.

Truly I don't see any Miracle the APC wants to perform to win this coming election. Tinubu won't get block votes from the SW, NE, NW or NC. SS & SE are no go area for any of them.

This Election is for Obi to lose because all indices favours him. My advice to the labour party is for them to not just depend on the obidients and support groups, Obi needs to spend enough money to get people to educate the voters in the villages to know how to vote LP.

MrEverest:
Very poor analysis lacking in depth and logic. Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election despite performing woefully in NW against only one major contestant. But in 2023, at least, 3 candidates are battling to split NW votes evenly among themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE and SS is more than enough to offset NW. If he now wins NC and gets above 25% in SW then he will be clearly ahead of the rest.

No contestant can possibly win more than 40% of NW, which means the zone can't determine the outcome of the election.

As it stands now, based on the fact that we have 4 major candidates, no zone can determine the outcome. If any zone has such power then it has to be SS. Now consider this, what Peter Obi gets from SE is most likely going to be higher than what Tinubu will get from SW. Also, Obi is likely to get far more votes from SW than Tinubu will hope to get from SE.

If Atiku is able to pull off at least 35% of NW votes which is very possible and Kwankwaso gets same figure, it means that Tinubu won't get more than 25% in NW.

Peter Obi is most likely the next president, everything being equal.

You think Obi will win all southern states with Jonathan margin?
And for your information, though Jonathan lost in NW,NE in 2011, he didn't perform badly..
Obi can never get Jonathan figures in North

Emeraldicon:


I really like this your analysis. To win this election all Obi needs to do is win SE & SS convincingly and do very well in south west and probably win NC. The fact Atiku and Kwankwaso are from the North has diluted the votes from the North already. Even Tinubu will also get handsome votes from the North. But none will get any block vote.

Truly I don't see any Miracle the APC wants to perform to win this coming election. Tinubu won't get block votes from the SW, NE, NW or NC. SS & SE are no go area for any of them.

This Election is for Obi to lose because all indices favours him. My advice to the labour party is for them to not just depend on the obidients and support groups, Obi needs to spend enough money to get people to educate the voters in the villages to know how to vote LP.

Very poor analysis. Go look at the table of 2011and see why Jonathan won. He even matched Buhari in north by getting 25 percent in almost all the states. Won the whole of South east, south south and south west.

Carmal90:

You think Obi will win all southern states with Jonathan margin?
And for your information, though Jonathan lost in NW,NE in 2011, he didn't perform badly..
Obi can never get Jonathan figures in North

He won 25 percent in almost all the states in the north.

Ok

tinsel:

He won 25 percent in almost all the states in the north.

The problem I have with lot of us( me included) is we don't make research.
We just spew thrash and expect others to accept..
Eversince I know how to use Google, I hardly make any claim without verifying

Carmal90:


The problem I have with lot of us( me included) is we don't make research.
We just spew thrash and expect others to accept..
Eversince I know how to use Google, I hardly make any claim without verifying

Please below is a table of 2011 results. Compare it

frank14011991:
The only too close to call states in North West are KANO which is between tinubu and kwankwaso, and SOKOTO between tinubu and Atiku, the remaining five states are for APC no doubt insha Allahu

INSHA ALLAHU PUT YOU FOR GRAVE.ANIMAL.

ganisucks:


Sorry, but according to ANAP poll, the most trustworthy poll in Nigeria, Atiku is the candidate to beat in Northwest and Northeast, except Kano state which Kwankwaso has locked down.
The NorthCentral on the other hand, except Kwara state, is completely in the bag for Peter Obi.
I don't know which Northern state you are giving to Tinubu.

How is ANAP poll trustworthy? Do you mean to say the most credible?

Dull obidient.

kettykin:
Anyone that believes this can believe anything. If Obi will get SS, SE parts of south west, North Central, Kaduna South,Kebbi south with or without any vote from the north west,Obi will be president .

Jonathan became the president in 2011 without North West,ended up making North West the inec chairman, national security advisor after winning before they sent him to the canvas in 2015 in place of Buhari.

Obi is riding on Jonathan's 2011 backbone,know this and know peace.

obi na christain president be that .you just open una yansh wide

tinsel:

Very poor analysis. Go look at the table of 2011and see why Jonathan won. He even matched Buhari in north by getting 25 percent in almost all the states. Won the whole of South east, south south and south west.

If this election will be just between Tinubu and Obi I will with no qualms give it to Tinubu.

I'm only predicting an Obi's victory based on the fact that Atiku and Kwankwaso are on the ballot too.

I'm sure you won't deny that the SE & SS have always voted same way and Obi will mostly likely win these two region with more than 60%.

Obi will also get up to 30-40% in states like Lagos, Oyo, Ondo and 25% in all other southwest states.

Obi will win Benue, Plateau, FCT, And he may win or do very well in states like Kaduna (Southern Kaduna voters), The Christians in Nassarawa will vote Obi so he will do very well there, he will also probably win Taraba or do well there. Christians in Bauchi, Gombe and Adamawa will give Obi the 25% he requires.

Obi will also gets some votes from Kano due to the igbos there, he will get also get some numbers from other states even if he doesn't get 25%.

So basically Obi has a much easier part to Victory then either Atiku or Tinubu.

Election is like a football match anything can happen but I really hate seeing or reading posts saying obi cannot win because he has the easiest path to victory unless he and the labour party refuse to do their home work well .

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Nobody takes your urchins serious.Anap was not rubbish in 2015 when they predicted Buhari to win abi

ANAP predictions in 2015 were all misses.

You are a true obidient, no doubt! The dullard trademark is stamped all over your forehead.