raumdeuter:


You are the one missing the point

SW is not facing the SE and SS.

SE and SS are facing NE and NW

right now APC is leading in SW. Osun, Oyo, Ogun are posting over 100k difference each for APC. while the only state PDP won its by 50k votes

So assuming APC has +100K in each states they won thats +300, while PDP has +50k in Ekiti

That means PDP has a 250k deficit to catch up with in the SW, thats even before Lagos and Ondo

@raumdeuter
No region is against each other. The battle is between APC and PDP. As far as I am concerned APC is not doing well at all. Of what use is the 300k votes advantage in the whole of SW when Delta alone can wipe it off or if Enugu decides to fully utilise the 1.2m PVCs available to them in favour of PDP ? Except the north also utilise their PVCs fully, well I reserve my comments........

Dannyset:

The problem of the turn out begins with CR accreditation process. In all APC strongholds CR was used. This will only make the votes of the actual accredited voters count. So u can't fill the left over ballots. The Reverse is the case in SS n SE. CR has been jettison. So they just hav to fill the ballot to even 100%.
All my stories amount to one thing; rigging. U wonder why uv not being seeing their result since?

@Dannyset
I understand. It is not a level playing field at all. I will not be surprised to see 10m block votes for PDP from SE/SS

gists:


No region is against each other. The battle is between APC and PDP. As far as I am concerned APC is not doing well at all. Of what use is the 300k votes advantage in the whole of SW when Delta alone can wipe it off if Enugu decides to fully utilise the 1.2m PVCs available to them in favour of PDP ?



I understand Dannyset. It is not a level playing field at all. I will not be surprised to see 10m block votes for PDP from SE/SS

If Enugu, plus Rvers and Delta fully utilize their 1.2 + 2 + 2 m PVC, whats stopping Kano, Sokoto and Katsina from utilizing the 4m + 3m + 2m PVC?

Its a battle between 2 parties each have their own stronghold

APC has the whole NE + NW, PDP has SE + SS

SW and NC are swing states

Even if SE+SS vs NE + NW cancel each other out then the SW marginal wins would make the difference

And we know we are deceiving ourselves if we think SE + SS would cancel out NE + NW

binbass:
50/50 results so far.

Idioot, it is not 50/50....

Really PDP is doing so well in the SW! With the kind of noise from SW, I thought PDP will not score up to the 25% required by the law. But that is not the case! If the results being bandied about from the SW are real, then I will say SE/SS becomes more important for APC! But I don't see APC making any meaningful impact especially in the SE, the way PDP made reasonable impact in the SW. Somebody from portharcout even told me APC did not make up to 25% there, though it is not confirmed. Be that as it may, the final say lies with INEC

raumdeuter:


Its a battle between 2 parties each have their own stronghold

APC has the whole NE + NW, PDP has SE + SS

SW and NC are swing states

Even if SE+SS vs NE + NW cancel each other out then the SW marginal wins would make the difference

And we know we are deceiving ourselves if we think SE + SS would cancel out NE + NW

@ the bolded, I just hope you're right. Let's just wait and see.

saintandsinnerz:
Really PDP is doing so well in the SW! With the kind of noise from SW, I thought PDP will not score up to the 25% required by the law. But that is not the case! If the results being bandied about from the SW are real, then I will say SE/SS becomes more important for APC! But I don't see APC making any meaningful impact especially in the SE, the way PDP made reasonable impact in the SW. Somebody from portharcout even told me APC did not make up to 25% there, though it is not confirmed. Be that as it may, the final say lies with INEC

This election isnt between SW and SE/SS, Its between all region which NE, NW are major parts of

If election were held in SOuthern Nigeria only maybe you can postulate that. And surely Jonathan would win easily

But my brothers from Kano, Sokoto, Katsina are bringing their 4m each votes soon. Just wait

gists:


@ the bolded, I just hope you're right. Let's just wait and see.

SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

raumdeuter:


This election isnt between SW and SE/SS, Its between all region which NE, NW are major parts of

If election were held in SOuthern Nigeria only maybe you can postulate that. And surely Jonathan would win easily

But my brothers from Kano, Sokoto, Katsina are bringing their 4m each votes soon. Just wait

Eeeeehn..... You now get the gist.

raumdeuter:


SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

I have done this permutations too. And initially, I was a bit confident that nothing is stopping APC. My concern still remains though. SW is the second largest voting block. If the card reader issue caused the low turn-out rate in SW, how are we sure it will not affect NW and NE too? But we know the rigging is already going on in SE. Okorocha is alleged to have torn a result sheet and there are videos of thumb printing in Rivers. Apparently, the CR was not used in SE/SS. That is why I am concerned.

raumdeuter:


SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

Hey in as much as you support APC it is also pertinent you analyse issues objectively! Really the problem is that PDP is doing well in areas that was hitherto believed to be APC strong hold. APC gave PDP so much room in the SW that the 250k winning margin there may easily be written off from just a local govt in SE. Now the figures that will come from the SE believe you me will be so massive. The gap between pdp and APC there will be so wide! That's not so good for APc. Now even the As states that APC hoped that they will win is not forthcoming judging by the feelers we are getting from there. It is being alleged that Nyesom wike beat amechi hands down there! The same thing in Edo. The New and NE you are talking about has a strong PDP structure. Though APC will win there majorly but again PDP will make an appreciable impact there due to their structure.

saintandsinnerz:


Hey in as much as you support APC it is also pertinent you analyse issues objectively! Really the problem is that PDP is doing well in areas that was hitherto believed to be APC strong hold. APC gave PDP so much room in the SW that the 250k winning margin there may easily be written off from just a local govt in SE. Now the figures that will come from the SE believe you me will be so massive. The gap between pdp and APC there will be so wide! That's not so good. Now even the As states that APC hoped that they will win is not forthcoming judging by the feelers we are getting from there. It is being alleged that Nyesom wike beat amechi hands down there! The same thing in Edo. The New and NE you are talking about has a strong PDP structure. Though APC will win there majorly but again PDP will make an appreciable impact there due to their structure.

Let me tell you the truth , NE and NW would post ver 80% for Buhari. Have you seen any result from anywhere there except Kaduna thats even close

Amaechi, Oshiomole and Rochas are causing trouble and trying to reduce the PDP rigging, Do you see any Northern PDP governor shout or even complain? About anything? All of them are very "satisfied"

The way Oshiomole , Amaechi and Rochas dey tackle Jonathan for his strongholds do you see any PDP governor or candidate dare to insult Buhari in the whole North? Actually most PDP candidate are placing Buharis picture beside their poster

You think say Hausas be like us? Millions of people are waiting outside INEC office in Bauchi if Jonathan gets anything more than 10% na wahala. WHich SS or SE state fit do that?

Tell my Ibo brothers not to go market tomorrow and na dem go first attack INEC

PDP and APC were always going to be close in SW and NC only a fool would predict landslide for any candidate here

raumdeuter:


This election isnt between SW and SE/SS, Its between all region which NE, NW are major parts of

If election were held in SOuthern Nigeria only maybe you can postulate that. And surely Jonathan would win easily

But my brothers from Kano, Sokoto, Katsina are bringing their 4m each votes soon. Just wait

I am sorry to disappoint you. None of them will bring more than 2m even, and thats only kano near that.
Relax and watch SS/SE

OREMUSSANCTUS:
Waiting for inec to give us d real results
Dis fake
Inec should pls release chatham house ward result now, pls no delay
While pdp swears in jonathan at d eagle square on may 29, apc will swear in buhari on google square

Eyah, this guy is confused.

themano:

I am sorry to disappoint you. None of them will bring more than 2m even, and thats only kano near that.
Relax and watch SS/SE

Don't bother yourself. Jega and INEC are watching what is going on in the SS and SE very closely. Card reader was introduced because of the 98%-99% fraud that PDP perpetuated in 2011. They risk result cancellation if they rig the election from that side.

As it is shown currently, the election turnouts have been a little over 50% in the North and about 45% in the Southwest. If the South-easterners and South-southerners want to claim there was 95% turnout, then they are in for a rude-awakening.

raumdeuter:


SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

There is a dangerous dimension to this election that can not wished away. MASSIVE RIGGING /INfLATION OF VOTES IN SS/SE.
Akpabio just declared over 400,000 for himself in a single senatorial districts, meaning he won with over 95%, and voter turnout of like 99 %

I must confess, the silence of the SS and SE in the result collation is too deafening. I never expected the PDP to go down without a fight, even if it's a very dirty fight. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a 95% voters turnout in the SE & SS and I also wouldnt be surprised if the PDP takes 97% of the votes in these 2 regions. The PDP is very desperate right now and are ready to do and undo.

raumdeuter:


Let me tell you the truth , NE and NW would post ver 80% for Buhari. Have you seen any result from anywhere there except Kaduna thats even close

Amaechi, Oshiomole and Rochas are causing trouble and trying to reduce the PDP rigging, Do you see any Northern PDP governor shout or even complain? About anything? All of them are very "satisfied"

The way Oshiomole , Amaechi and Rochas dey tackle Jonathan for his strongholds do you see any PDP governor or candidate dare to insult Buhari in the whole North? Actually most PDP candidate are placing Buharis picture beside their poster

You think say Hausas be like us? Millions of people are waiting outside INEC office in Bauchi if Jonathan gets anything more than 10% na wahala. WHich SS or SE state fit do that?

Tell my Ibo brothers not to go market tomorrow and na dem go first attack INEC

PDP and APC were always going to be close in SW and NC only a fool would predict landslide for any candidate here

At the bolded.
Its true that NE and NW will post about 80% for APC. But the question is 80% of what? 80% of 23m or 80% of 5m?
SW has 14m eligible voters and till this moment, I am not sure we posted up to 3m total!
I hope the CR issue will not repeat itself in the North. SE/SS don't give a damn that is why they didn't use CR (from the look of things)

sincerenigerian:


Don't bother yourself. Jega and INEC are watching what is going on in the SS and SE very closely. Card reader was introduced because of the 98%-99% fraud that PDP perpetuated in 2011. They risk result cancellation if they rig the election from that side.

As it is shown currently, the election turnouts have been a little over 50% in the North and about 45% in the Southwest. If the South-easterners and South-southerners want to claim there was 95% turnout, then they are in for a rude-awakening.

I'm afraid if they claim a 95% turnout in the SE/SS, there's hardly anything INEC would be able to do except there's something I dont know. The use of card readers was abandoned half way and that is the perfect excuse/cover-up the PDP needs to rig massively like in 2011 even if the results look ridiculous.

obailala:

I'm afraid if they claim a 95% turnout in the SE/SS, there's hardly anything INEC would be able to do except there's something I dont know. The use of card readers was abandoned half way and that is the perfect excuse/cover-up the PDP needs to rig massively like in 2011 even if the results look ridiculous.

INEC won't let them get away with the same fraud they perpetuated in 2011.

doctokwus:

Then what was vanguard reporting that PDP were winning in 10 LGA then declared?
Pls is this from INEC because heard they were still waiting for some results ad at 6pm

just to tell u what u want to hear.

gists:
What is wrong with my SW people with this ridiculous 48% voters turn-out? Just wait for SE results and see 99% turn-out. That will be the difference between who wins this election.
I just pray the North have better voters turn-out

My sentiment exactly. If voters turn-out in SE is massive, rigged or otherwise, GEJ will win. It seems SW and NC have even out. The best rigger in NW/NE vs SS/SE wins

raumdeuter:


Let me tell you the truth , NE and NW would post ver 80% for Buhari. Have you seen any result from anywhere there except Kaduna thats even close

Amaechi, Oshiomole and Rochas are causing trouble and trying to reduce the PDP rigging, Do you see any Northern PDP governor shout or even complain? About anything? All of them are very "satisfied"

The way Oshiomole , Amaechi and Rochas dey tackle Jonathan for his strongholds do you see any PDP governor or candidate dare to insult Buhari in the whole North? Actually most PDP candidate are placing Buharis picture beside their poster

You think say Hausas be like us? Millions of people are waiting outside INEC office in Bauchi if Jonathan gets anything more than 10% na wahala. WHich SS or SE state fit do that?

Tell my Ibo brothers not to go market tomorrow and na dem go first attack INEC

PDP and APC were always going to be close in SW and NC only a fool would predict landslide for any candidate here

Don't be surprised that when they announce result in the bauchi you are talking about, you will see PDP doing well there! Remember isa yuguda, adamu muazu and bala Mohammed is from that state. It is a given they will make an appreciable impact going by their political stature in bauchi. They are not like the Igbos that prefer their businesses, but again they are very poor, hence they can easily be influenced or bought over. Look, I've an hausa guy that works with one of the govt agencies that deals on petroleum who confided in us how PDP has perfected plans on how to swing some votes in their favour. The deal is that, they know NE/NW are Buhari's stronghold, hence they cannot win there, but they want to be as close as possible to the votes Buhari will make there. Brother believe you me, if APC will lose this election, their lost will come from their inability to defeat PDP hands down in the SW. This is because, SE/SS will give PDP a very massive vote that will be so unreasonable. Now they said that the CR has been jettisoned there, just imagine the kind of figures that will come out of that region. Isn't scary that no result has been announced from that region. Who knows what they are cooking! So bro, if at the end APC loses this election, then they should know they lost the election in the SW and in SE/Ss!

sincerenigerian:


INEC won't let them get away with the same fraud they perpetuated in 2011.

To be honest, I'm not too optimistic anymore. Look at what is happening in Rivers state, yet Inec are insisting that elections were well conducted over there, and that they have no evidence to the contrary.

Also, look at the figures coming out from the core Northern states where GMB is suppose to have massive upturn, they have been very low. Like someone said earlier, the South East were allowed to use manual accreditation, while it would seem the North were only allowed use the Card reader.

So if you ask me, things aren't really going well for GMB, and it's disheartening.

obailala:
I must confess, the silence of the SS and SE in the result collation is too deafening. I never expected the PDP to go down without a fight, even if it's a very dirty fight. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a 95% voters turnout in the SE & SS and I also wouldnt be surprised if the PDP takes 97% of the votes in these 2 regions. The PDP is very desperate right now and are ready to do and undo.

Hahahahah. U should look at history. Se/ss has always had bigger tournout than most regions esp SW. Nobe today,just check

dustmalik:

To be honest, I'm not too optimistic anymore. Look at what is happening in Rivers state, yet Inec are insisting that elections were well conducted over there, and that they have no evidence to the contrary.

Also, look at the figures coming out from the core Northern states where GMB is suppose to have massive upturn, they have been very low. Like someone said earlier, the South East were allowed to use manual accreditation, while it would seem the North were only allowed use to Card reader.

So if you ask me, things aren't really going well for GMB, and it's disheartening.

The north has a history of inflation of population figures plus under age voters.

The ss/se has a history of high tournout

Unemadu:


Hahahahah. U should look at history. Se/ss has always had bigger tournout than most regions esp SW. Nobe today,just check

That's exactly what I'm saying. The SS/SE had a ridiculously high turn out of up to 99% in previous elections because of RIGGING and RIGGING alone. Reports have it that the north has a turnout of 50% while the SW has turnout of 45%.

With the abandonment of card readers halfway into the election and the unusually prolonged delay in releasing elections in the SE/SS, it only means one thing; the PDP is performing midnight wonders and the turnout would be similar to 2011 with 99% votes going to PDP.

God help us!

Nigeria, our liegeria. APC, goodluck next time. If Card reader can not be used nationwide, then there is no point using it in one section while going manual in another.

raumdeuter:


If Enugu, plus Rvers and Delta fully utilize their 1.2 + 2 + 2 m PVC, whats stopping Kano, Sokoto and Katsina from utilizing the 4m + 3m + 2m PVC?

Its a battle between 2 parties each have their own stronghold

APC has the whole NE + NW, PDP has SE + SS

SW and NC are swing states

Even if SE+SS vs NE + NW cancel each other out then the SW marginal wins would make the difference

And we know we are deceiving ourselves if we think SE + SS would cancel out NE + NW

In 2011 GMB won NW by 3.3 million votes margin. that can be cancelled by 3 states in ss

OREMUSSANCTUS:
Waiting for inec to give us d real results
Dis fake
Inec should pls release chatham house ward result now, pls no delay
While pdp swears in jonathan at d eagle square on may 29, apc will swear in buhari on google square

This dry joke neva tire u? Haba!

babytoun:



In 2011 GMB won NW by 3.3 million votes margin. that can be cancelled by 3 states in ss

Go and check your result again. Buhari won NW by over 8M votes in 2011. Don't forget that most of his votes came from NW and NE in which more than 60% of his 12 million votes came from NW.

So stop lying.

obailala:

I'm afraid if they claim a 95% turnout in the SE/SS, there's hardly anything INEC would be able to do except there's something I dont know. The use of card readers was abandoned half way and that is the perfect excuse/cover-up the PDP needs to rig massively like in 2011 even if the results look ridiculous.

I have been shouting it since 2011, I am an Igbo person, and since I became aware of how elections are conducted, I have never seen an Igbo man queue to vote in any Presidential election in South East. What normally happens is that, ballot papers will be taken to a house where all the papers are thumb printed and returned to collation centre! My mother who supports PDP, told me they were simply asked to go home and relax, that jonathan had won.

What the North should do, is simply return the same number of votes to tally with the number of PVC collecte! Anything short of that, I smell danger.

Further Information: This is what PDP will return tomorrow for jonathan form SS/SE

Ebonyi- 600000
Enugu- 850000
Abia- 900000
Rivers (If it is not cancelled)1.5M
Akwa Ibom-1.2M
Delta-1.1M
Imo State -1M
Anambra 1.3M
Bayelsa - 550,000
Edo- 270,000( Card reader)
Cross River-800000

TOTAL=10Million

Unless Buhari Matches this Number in North East/ North West.

NgeneUkwenu:


I have been shouting it since 2011, I am an Igbo man, and since I became aware of how elections are conducted, I have never seen an Igbo man queue to vote in any Presidential election in South East. What normally happens is that, ballot papers will be taken to a house where all the papers are thumb printed and returned to collation centre! My mother who supports PDP, told me they were simply asked to go home and relax, that jonathan had won.

What the North should do, is simply return the same number of votes to tally with the number of PVC collecte! Anything short of that, I smell danger.


Further Information: This is what PDP will return tomorrow for jonathan form SS/SE

Ebonyi- 600000
Enugu- 850000
Abia- 900000
Rivers (If it is not cancelled)1.5M
Akwa Ibom-1.2M
Delta-1.1M
Imo State -1M
Anambra 1.3M
Bayelsa - 550,000
Edo- 270,000( Card reader)
Cross River-800000

TOTAL=10Million

Unless Buhari Matches this Number in North East/ North West.

The highlighted red fonts is exactly my point. Anything short of that is a loss.