ahiboilandgas:
sorry i cant continue with rants ...if u have a problem with the Nigeria state ....go to the National assemble or northern govt forum

I can't go to the Nigeria state to complain when they are doing what I want na.
CBN said they will be supplying forex henceforth for "strategic imports" even through BDC...meaning you will have to enlist what you want to import before you get CBN sourced forex.
Meaning if you are importing nonsense,you will go to the streets and buy at street price.
Nigeria is waking up to "western dumping"
Since you are preaching revaluation,I think you are the one that needs to go to the state house to make CBN and Buhari reverse their decision.

ahiboilandgas:
1 million tonnes of rice produced by kebbi state fell from the sky....Guy i taught we can have brilliant discussion ..not rants .....

You wouldn't need ask me if their 1 million tonnes of rice fell from the sky if the lifestyle or real estate market in Kebbi was increasing and property price is skyrocketing,would you?
No one is ranting,if at all I want to rant it wouldn't be because of the north that i have so much sympathy for.
The truth always sound like rants to many people.

ahiboilandgas:
buying and selling in Alaba markets cant be compared to cultivation of iris patatos ... ever Nation including russia have gotten their currency devalued against the dollars who told u it only shit hole nations ...south african rand , Turkish lira ,ghana cedi have all loss significant value against the dollars sometime ...so misleading people

Yes,trading can't be compared to industrial farming,not almajiri kind of farming.
It is better to trade than farm like almajiris where one Alhaji will be rich and his farmers are paid in food without meat.
This is the problem,not that agriculture is bad.They lack capitalistic farming but has chose to remain stuck in the 17th century kind of farming.
That is why trade dominated regions is better than subsistent farming regions in Nigeria today.
Ghana did not devalue their currency to uselessness,No!It depreciated out of control like what Venezuela is seeing today.
I've always said here that devaluation and depreciation are 2 big different things.

ahiboilandgas:
where did u get the 70m workforce idle in the north? Agriculture which constitute 70 percent of Nigeria Gross domestics products is done in the North....u cant tell me the millions of farmers producing tomatoes,onions ,beans ,sorghum ,rice ,beef ,milk ,corn ,millet,irish patatos , grandnuts,ginger,limes , oranges ,yams in million of tonnes are idle...

They are economically idle.
You can't be doing subsistent farming and earning peanut year to year and dragging the nation behind and you tell me you are busy.Busy how?
If they were really busy,it will start to reflect in their lifestyle.
Not some almajiri goes to work in an Alhaji's farm for a plate of food without meat and you want me to applaud them for being busy whereas they are just barely surviving?
That is economic madness.
That is where Nigeria poverty and poor data is coming from.
That is the reason most of them live in huts and are going blind due to poverty and inaccess to clean water till date and polio,cholera,less fever and terrorism is still ravaging them.
Nigeria needs Capitalism,not farming for a plate of food.

ahiboilandgas:
like wise the poverty and all negative index ....if strong countries like Turkey will be worried about devaluations ..i dont Nigeria should be happy...a 30 percents drop in the Lira caused alot of panic...they are very industralized and a mid income Nation

Poverty index is increasing because there are over 70m+ unproductive people up north dragging the nation backwards and destroying it's statistics.
Turkey is not a shithole country and devaluation is not for them.
You only devalue currencies of shitholes so that they can sell whatever crap they produce internationally and destroy importation caused by lack of production/industrialization,so making comparison with Nigeria and Turkey is not good.
You should make comparisons between Nigeria and olden day China.
This is fair comparison.
You cannot go to an already industrialised and self sufficient country with higher standards of living and start talking devaluation,it's outright wrong.

ahiboilandgas:
really...we have been devaluing since 1980 ..

And GDP has been increasing since 1980....

olujaidi:


Lol. I think the only thing that can improve this is sustained cash intervention. Thus far, that hasn't happened. I think they've chosen to protect the reserves as much as possible - maybe gathering the necessary firepower to intervene.

I don't think the NNPC "blundered". It's been that way for years. It's just a Google search away. Kachikwu attempted to reduce it but obviously his efforts were unsuccessful.

Men it's bad.
Yesterday's own was shocking.
It has been very opaque for a while with people guessing its COP but it was worrisome to the point where the Senate had to set up a committee to probe this production cost.

ahiboilandgas:
if u sell u dollars u will still go and buy in the future ...u need it continusely

He is not limited to exchanging his naira for dollars.
What if he also looks for a way to start earning dollars?Have you also thought about what will happen to his standard of living if he does this?
Devaluation will make Nigeria an export based nation with everyone scrambling to earn fx.
That is what we need right now.

AdaoraNK:
Even if oil price reaches $50, its still not enough to to pull out the naira from 400 range

I think you are right.
What happened yesterday is clear proof that they don't even have enough liquid to intervene in the fx market even if they wanted to.
Speculators have become confident again.

olujaidi:




Isn't it wiser to attempt to come out better off personally than to suffer it along with everyone else?

I see CBN devaluing the naira again.
Dollar don pick race again this morning as Buhari said na June 21 them go open everywhere.
Also NNPC blundered last night to hint they make just $3 profit a barrel of oil at their $25 benchmark because they spend up to $22 just to produce a single barrel of oil.
This has boost speculator confidence and the slow and steady upward rate of the dollar has begun.
Whoever that don't want to buy local produce should get ready to plunder his reserves till kingdom come.
400 range is naira's new reality apparently.

promotervickky:
Mercedes Benz is the best for me, forget all the mentainace nonsense, Mercedes Benz is durable, yes the parts are expensive, but it takes time to spoil.

I remember when I drove one of the EDO state honourable wife's ML350 jeep, that car is magic, na click out button be the reverse!!

I plan on buying 2 cars a GLK and C300 at once

As I hear GLK I know say na either Edo or Delta
Wire clan.

damilola1978:
unfortunately no...all the corporation that are into semiconductor manufacturing are in the US

I see,that's bad.
Meaning US want to eliminate their competition in the smart phone and electronica market.

Tobex4realTobex234:
Also take a look at what Trump is trying to do with Huawei by creating some form of export ban on semiconductors created in the U.S.

China still lags behind in semiconductors production, they rely heavily on U.S. With this ban, they are forced to do 2 things:

1. Retaliate by looking for something that U.S also depends on them for and ban it's export. (Fast)
2. Start developing their own semiconductor industry (will take some time).

But I've been thinking,isn't there someplace else china can buy these semiconductors?

ojesymsym:
This thing you are trying to achieve can be achieved by increased in tarrif also even though I know that in Nigeria, bans are more effective. Smuggling will increase but so will the price which you say an increase in dollar will achieve.
You have to see what worked for rice was the ban and improved with border closure.

Increase in tariff can never have the same effect as increase in forex.
Forex increase shoots up pricing way more than anything else.
You can't compare inflation caused by MPR rate cuts,excess liquidity,increased tariff,lending rate cuts to that caused by fx increase in an import dependent nation na,can you?
Now is closing borders that helps export your goods to neighbouring countries just to stop smuggling of rice into the country a good thing?
Why close your borders when you can just devalue your currency,make that product so expensive for your people to be able to afford in the first place thereby killing its demand and still have your borders open for business?
Besides,who told you rice smuggling has stopped?
You must be joking.
At this rate,Nigeria produced rice will never go nowhere because local and foreign are same price right now.
Bans are ineffective in corrupt nations caused by generational poverty.
Bans don't work here.

ojesymsym:
Just to ensure I am on same page with you. I am a strong advocate of produce in Nigeria, but the fact remains, Nigerians will rather adjust and go for imported products. You asked if rice was 30k and local rice was 16k, I tell you that many people to claim high social class will go for the foreign rice as long as it is available. That will mean importers will bring and adjust their price to the new rate.
Just like the phone seller just said, people will grumble but they will still buy it. Ever wondered why products produced in Aba have to carry international labels just to be able to sell them?

If you put rice at 100k today,some people will still buy.
The question is how many?
The masses which make the bulk will have no choice but buy the cheaper one irrespective of quality.
Aba doesn't sell that much because people can still afford import with perceived higher quality.
I am talking about creating an avenue where people(masses) can't even afford import I the first place.
There is no way someone earning 30k a month will buy rice at 33k when he knows he can buy local for 16k.
Quality is an illusion to the masses but real and a factor to the rich.
You can't be talking quality with 5k last card for account.
Impossible.

OgogoroFreak:
It is always like that at first when prices go up but people tend to adapt with it after some time. And there are things you can't boycott cos no option. Things like phones are laptops and other gadget.

I started dealing on phones in lekki January this year. The increased in $ recently made me double the prices of phones I already have in Stock yet it all sold out.

Exactly.
You are right.
But then,phone importation isn't Nigeria's problem but importing things that we can produce here.
This way,Nigeria importation will be limited to things we can't do without like phone,medicine and very strategic things.
This is what Emefiele meant by "strategic import".

Godbpraised:
Bros calm down, lets to heat up this beautiful discussion.

This was no attack oo.
If was just a figure of speech to make the whole discussion humourous.
I'm sorry if anyone took offense,besides I wasn't referring to him but the importer that does that import at that time.

OgogoroFreak:
Heavy importation would still happen even if dollar is 1,000. Dollar has been rising from year to year but it has never had any effect on the rate of importation.

When you import at N1000/$,I'm sure you'll go and invoke all the dead people in your home town to come and buy at the price you will sell ba?
When you bring am once and nobody buys it,no be person go tell you not to go again
People were already switching to cassava when rice hit 33k in 2016.
These were things I saw with my eyes and many people can confirm this.

ojesymsym:
Economics is not my strongest strength so in fairness, I won't be able to have a GDP kind of discussion with you.

But the ban policy worked for things like fruit juice, that was when juice like chivita and co set up factories in Nigeria. I think (not sure) the same thing was done for local production of biscuits.

Till today as me and you dey talk,they still dey smuggle fruit juice to Nigeria.
Imagine if all that market share being stolen by smuggled imports is no longer there for imports rather is left open to be occupied by local juice.
Imported Turkey still dey disturb market for home grown.
Imported and smuggled rice still dey Bleep local rice up till date
First thing is there won't have been only chivita,you would have been able to name up to 5 solid prominent juice companies by now.
Look at rice as case study.
Do you think if imported rice still maintained 30k pricing like 2016,Nigerians won't rush all this local rice going for 16k now?
I am not an economist too by the way,I no go school.

ahiboilandgas:
u are not an authority in that field of valution or made any publication or a cerified researcher ...so cant believe u only be saying u know ....Ahib oil and gas is wort 500m dollars am telling u because i know....

I searched ahib oil and gas on google and found nothing except google redirecting me back to the only place the name exists,Nairaland.
I searched Josien holdings limited(JHL) on google and found a huge business concern that has giant warehouses,head office in Lagos and distributors nationwide.
How are these 2 things similar to you?
One can be verified by anybody and the other is just word of mouth said on the internet,typed from a mobile phone or laptop.
I hope I've cleared your doubts.

ojesymsym:
What works in Nigeria is the OBJ approach for fruit juice, where there was a government policy to BAN the importation, that is the only language Nigerians understand, otherwise people will always import.

How many Nigerians really have the patience of Dangotte to tie money down for up to 6-10 years building a factory when I can just start importation as early as next month as soon as I have money.

I understand all that you are saying but my belief is that if the Naira gets devalued to say 1000, cost of items will just increase, people will adjust, Labor will cry for increase in minimum wage and then there will simply be price adjustments and still no industries built.

So, if goverment wants that your sole distributor guy to build a factory, just tell him that in 2021 june, there will be a ban on the importation of that his product, only then will he consider building a factory, that is even if he does not go and look for another product to import

When you ban a product,you have created another industry called smuggling.
So why not just make your currency weak that discourages both importers and smugglers at the same time?
People will adjust?adjust how?No be you go adjust if only you see money to adjust
Na empty hand them dey use adjust?
If you tell him by 2021 You will ban his product,what he will do is look for funds and import products in 2020 that will last till 2022 and hike the price and cash out from 2020 to 2022,after cashing out and have built mad funds,he can always go and start importing another product you didn't ban because forex is still cheap
You can't ban everything na.
I asked you that if you feel currency weakening don't improve industrialisation,then why did GDP grow from the time when dollar was 160 to now that is in 400s?
GDP should have decreased if you think cheap forex is a good thing.
China did not move western companies from their base to start producing in china by just having cheap labour and favourable taxing.
They also did a lot of currency play and I mean a lot.

ojesymsym:
Cheap forex you say, but don't forget that same forex was 160 around 2014 and is not around 420 now in 2020. That is already a 162% increase, how much higher will then be considered a fair increase?
Also, do not forget that even in manufacturing, many of the machinery and raw materials have to be imported also

There is a difference between devaluation and depreciation.
Outright devaluation brings investor confidence.
If I come and invest in Nigeria because naira has depreciated to 500 and all my calculations for my investments are based on that 500 and after doing my investments it comes and appreciate to 250 nko?
Have I not just wasted money in investing in Nigeria.
As for your 160-420,go and check the naira corresponding GDP too and tell me whether it did not increase or not.
If it increased,that tells you Nigeria Nigeria hasn't devaluated enough and still needs to go down more.
When you hit satiety and the impossible import limit,that is when the magic happens.
As for companies importing raw materials and machinery,which do you think will make final product more expensive due to devaluation;
Importing finished products OR
Importing raw material and machinery(one off import)?

ojesymsym:
Let's not argue about the amount of another person's funds.
What then do you believe is his reason for not investing in manufacturing? Low forex?

Cheap forex.
Imports are so cheap because of CBN supplying cheap dollar forcefully to Nigerians.
If you float the Naira and make devalue naira officially to its true value to about N500/$,my brother you go see investments sotey you go shout!!
When you devalue a currency,you boost investor confidence because they will know there are no more surprises.this is one point.
Also,let's put you in Josien's shoes.
If you were josien and you are an importer but you have eye to start manufacturing those things you import in Nigeria,but you bring out your calculator and press and you find out that importing that product is cheaper than the cost of producing that same product in Nigeria,
Tell me will you build the factory or keep importing?

Joe Aisien is dead btw but his children now run the company.
Not everyone comes out to the limelight and be birthing DJ cuppys up and down and shouting OBO.
If not for davido a lot of people won't know Adeleke.
I don bring Aisien nyarsh for outside now who send me
There are a lot of silent billionaires in lagos.

olujaidi:


I think what he's saying is that you can't be "anonymous" where you're worth $100m and that being worth a certain sum has nothing to do with cash balance

I never said he has a $100m cash if this is the confusion.
I said he can liquidate or divert funds from JHL holdings to his new factory that can be up to $100m.
Josien is a very rich man that lagos knows so I wonder why we are arguing.

ahiboilandgas:
u want me to believe we drink more henessy more than 1.2 bn Chinese....please where is the link

Go and find out,I must not give you the link.
I am too big for that.
I said MOET,not cognac.

ahiboilandgas:
if u dont know let me help u ....famfa oil own by alakija own around 20 percent of an oil block worth around 5bn dollars ..that why she wort 1.2bn dollars .....not that she has 800m dollars in zenith bank saving accounts ....

Oga stop educating me on things I already know,it sounds monotonous already.
All this worth that they use calculator to multiply by their stakes in the stock market are the ones you will know.
I am telling you from a point I know very well.
A lot of people have private liability companies that you will never know what they are worth till you get an inside view.
Everyone is not on NSE begging for capital from the public,know this.
Some people have enough capital to run their businesses by themselves very smoothly.

ahiboilandgas:
u wan compared forte oil with 500 filling stations and tank farm and vessel to selling whiskey and wine as distributor......get serious man...

500 filling stations for a company that is public is not exactly ground breaking if you ask me.
Please go and research who Aisien is.No need for long talk.
When you finish come back with facts that his business isn't worth $100m.

ojesymsym:
You sure say non be you be this Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy's sole distributor??

Bros no ooo

ahiboilandgas:
i thinks so...100m dollars can cause war in africa countries...small African countries dont have 100m dollars as reserve

So this is your analogy?
What do you think is LVMH revenue annually?
If a huge chunk of that money is made from Nigeria then what do you think the only person that is the leeway of that product in Nigeria is worth?
A lot of people are deluded enough to think money comes only from oil and gas.

ahiboilandgas:
oga forte oil was sold for 200m dollars by otedola....

So only oil and gas players can afford $100m?

ahiboilandgas:
100m dollars is not 100m naira ...oh...

You think I don't know this?