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Market Expectations to News and Their Impact on Currencies There’s no one “All in” or “Bet the Farm” formula for success when it comes to predicting how the market will react to data reports or market events or even why it reacts the way it does. You can draw on the fact that there’s usually an initial response, which is usually short-lived, but full of action. Later on comes the second reaction, where forex traders have had some time to reflect on the implications of the news or report on the current market. It’s at this point when the market decides if the news release went along with or against the existing expectation, and if it reacted accordingly. Was the outcome of the report expected or not? And what does the initial response of the market tell us about the bigger picture? Answering those questions gives us place to start interpreting the ensuing price action. Consensus Market Expectations A consensus expectation, or just consensus, is the relative agreement on upcoming economic or news forecasts. Economic forecasts are made by various leading economists from banks, financial institutions and other securities related entities. All the forecasts get pooled together and averaged out, and it’s these averages that appear on charts and calendars designating the level of expectation for that report or event. The consensus becomes ground zero; the incoming, or actual data is compared against this baseline number. Incoming data normally gets identified in the following manner: “As expected” – the reported data was close to or at the consensus forecast. “Better-than-expected”- the reported data was better than the consensus forecast. “Worse-than-expected” – the reported data was worse than the consensus forecast. Whether or not incoming data meets consensus is an important evaluation for determining price action. Just as important is the determination of how much better or worse the actual data is to the consensus forecast. Larger degrees of inaccuracy increase the chance and extent to which the price may change once the report is out. However, let’s remember that forex traders are smart, and can be ahead of the curve. Well the good ones, anyway. Many forex traders have already “priced in” consensus expectations into their trading and into the market well before the report is scheduled, let alone released. As the name implies, pricing in refers to traders having a view on the outcome of an event and placing bets on it before the news comes out. The more likely a report is to shift the price, the sooner traders will price in consensus expectations. How can you tell if this is the case with the current market? You can’t always tell, so you have to take it upon yourself to stay on top of what the market commentary is saying and what price action is doing before a report gets released. This will give you an idea as to how much the market has priced in. A lot can happen before a report is released, so keep your eyes and ears peeled. Market sentiment can improve or get worse just before a release, so be aware that price can react with or against the trend. There is always the possibility that a data report totally misses expectations, so don’t bet the farm away on the expectations of others. When the miss occurs, you’ll be sure to see price movement occur. What the Heck? They Revised the Data? Now what? Too many questions in that title.But that’s right, economic data can and will get revised. That’s just how economic reports roll! Let’s take the monthly Non-Farm Payroll employment numbers (NFP) as an example. As stated, this report comes out monthly, usually included with it are revisions of the previous month’s numbers. We’ll assume that the U.S. economy is in a slump and January’s NFP figure decreases by 50,000, which is the number of jobs lost. It’s now February, and NFP is expected to decrease by another 35,000. But the incoming NFP actually decreases by only 12,000, which is totally unexpected. Also, January’s revised data, which appears in the February report, was revised upwards to show only a 20,000 decrease.
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winetapper:You better take the marker and position yourself on the White Board than grabbing Chair and Pop Corn. Mr Moses mentioned you to take the next class not me . |
AleAirHub:I see you as an Importation Messiah if you could go that far to reveal that secret to people in this MEN'S mode of Importation business though not all will be ready to take that extra task up. Thumb up ! |
AleAirHub:This business is only meant for the MEN now and not the BOYS except the BOYS that are ready and not too lazy to become MEN. The MEN will keep smiling to the bank and will never quit even if exchange rate soar to #1000/$ (God forbid). Its all about PLAN B,is your own Plan B in place yet ? |
Building loyalty from marketplaces to become a super seller In this day and age you can’t afford not to use marketplaces, so how can you best use them? When Jeff Bezos set up Amazon in 1994 no one could have predicted how it would not only usher in the era of ecommerce, but also how it would create the whole marketplace economy that in many ways drives retail today. Marketplaces have revolutionised ecommerce in two ways: firstly, they have levelled the playing field and allowed all manner of SME retailers and niche offerings – mom and pop brands that whittle artisan crafts on their back stoop, right through to eclectic retro clothes sellers – to play in ecommerce. Secondly, they have allowed all retailers the chance to grow and develop their stock portfolio in an almost limitless way. From a consumer point of view, marketplaces have also delivered unparalleled choice, competitive pricing and the ability to pretty much buy anything at the touch of a single smartphone button from anywhere in the world. A successful marketplace must always be based on getting both these things lined up. First, the shopper has to have more product choice, highly competitive pricing and better service. Additionally, the sellers using the site must have a lucrative new sales channel and the operator increased traffic, sales and profits. But, as a seller, marketplaces are your ‘frenemy’ – on the one hand they deliver vast amounts of eyeballs and potential shoppers to your door and help you sell stuff, but they also kill repeat business and loyalty as the customer sees the marketplace as the brand they have dealt with, not you. And you want them to fall in love with you. In this day and age you cannot afford not to use marketplaces, so how can you best use them? Follow these six steps to help you on the road to becoming a super seller. 1. Take pride in your listings The most important thing to do is to take pride in your listings and how you appear on marketplaces. Above all, make it easy for the customer. The consumer feasts first with their eyes, so make sure that you are awash with good, clear images that really sell the product. 2. Be concise Make sure that your opening paragraph about the product is clear, to the point and not a load of waffle. By all means, list the products many features – and even tell the customer about your business – but leave that for later. You only have a tiny amount of time to get their attention so use it wisely. 3. Spread your wings Do not be shy; put yourself and your products on as many different marketplaces that seem appropriate. Marketplaces are designed to suck customers up and so to get in front of as many people as possible you need to be everywhere. On all websites, take pride in what you do and how you present yourself, but also tailor what you say and how you display to each marketplace’s nuances as you see fit. One size does not necessarily fit all. 4. The tipping point Understanding the triggers that get your customers to buy particular products and make sure that they are listed at the top. Also, make the most of encouraging reviews, recommendations, feedback, star ratings and anything else that endorses you. 5. Build trust This will all help the marketplace see you as a trusted brand and propel you towards the much coveted super seller status. It is a little publicised fact that marketplaces will preferentially push customers towards trusted sellers and super sellers in particular, so to get the most from using marketplaces you need and to make sure that you are liked and loved by as many customers as possible. This will help drive the much needed repeat business, as well as helping to build loyalty insofar as you can on a marketplace. 6. Build loyalty from a marketplace The key to any retail business is repeat business but marketplaces are designed to bring customers back to the marketplace, not you specifically. So how do you build loyal customers from a marketplace? Well, it’s hard, don’t think it is not. However, there are some things you can do. Great customer service, speedy delivery, great reviews and feedback help. But simple things such as putting a “X% off when you shop with us again” voucher (ideally that drives them to your own site) in with the delivery can be an effective way of turning that customer who found you on a marketplace by accident into a regular customer and advocate for you as a brand. Many smaller retailers are abandoning the idea of having their own websites, as they see them as an unnecessary expense when marketplaces are bringing all the traffic – often stealing any traffic away from the retailer’s own site to boot. But this is a mistake. Ultimately, you need to build a brand and to do that you need your own identity. The key is to use marketplaces to sell your products, but through exemplary service based around price, delivery flexibility, returns and general all round customer service you can drive them to start using your site. Using marketplaces in a smart way Let’s not forget, marketplaces essentially deliver first time customers to you every time anyone shops with you. This makes the cost of acquisition actually quite high. In the past the cost of acquiring a customer was then spread over subsequent visits and the ability to build a relationship that allowed for repeat, up and cross-selling. Marketplaces do not drive that. They simply drive customers loyal to the marketplace to return. When they do return, they may or may not find you again. Using all the above tools, tricks and tips you can drive consumers back to your own website – or even into your own store – and the building of a beautiful relationship can commence. #Copied# |
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morgan2p:Technical analysis is the application of charts to know the condition of the market and in determining trade set ups while Fundamental analysis is the application of Economic,Social and Political news to take your decisions also. When a very strong fundamental news is in air ,it tends to out-play the technicals for the period but the technicals will serve as guidelines for IMPORTANT PRICE LEVELS. Whenever fundamentals is not in air,technicals rule the market. I will still drop for us a table showing the most important fundamentals to consider trading . To your 2nd question,there is no best method or analysis to trade the forex market ,everyone comes up with their individual trading plan and they trade the plan. |
Where to Find Forex News and Market Data Market news and data are available through a multitude of sources. The internet is the obvious winner in our book, as it provides a wealth of options, at the speed of light, directly to your screen, with access from almost anywhere in the world. But don’t forget about print media and the good old tube sitting in your living room or kitchen. Individual forex traders will be amazed at the sheer number of currency-specific websites, services, and TV programming available to them. Most of them are free of charge, while you may have to pay for some of the others. Let’s go over our favorites to help you get started. Traditional Financial News Sources While there are tons of financial news resources out there, we advise you to stick with the big names. These guys provide around-the-clock coverage of the markets, with daily updates on the big news that you need to be aware of, such as central bank announcements, economic report releases and analysis, etc. Many of these big players also have institutional contacts that provide explanations about the current events of the day to the viewing public. Reuters The Wall Street Journal Bloomberg MarketWatch.com Real-time Feeds Financial TV networks exist 24 hours a day, seven days a week to provide you up-to-the-minute action on all of the world’s financial markets. In the U.S., the top dogs are (in random order), Bloomberg TV, Fox Business, CNBC, MSNBC, and even CNN. You could even throw a little BBC in there. Another option for real-time data comes from your forex trading platform. Many forex brokers include live newsfeeds directly in their software to give you easy and immediate access to events and news of the currency market. Check your broker for availability of such features not all brokers features are created equally. Economic Calendars Wouldn’t it be great if you could look at the current month and know exactly when the Fed is making an interest rate announcement, what rate is forecasted, what rate actually occurs , and what type of impact this change has on the currency market? It’s all possible with an economic calendar. The good ones let you look at different months and years, let you sort by currency, and let you assign your local time zone. 3:00 pm where you’re sitting isn’t necessarily 3:00 pm where we’re sitting, so make use of the time zone feature so that you’re ready for the next calendar event! Yes, economic events and data reports take place more frequently than most people can keep up with. This data has the potential to move markets in the short term and accelerate the movement of currency pairs you might be watching. Lucky for you, most economic news that’s important to forex traders is scheduled several months in advance. Market Information Tips Keep in mind the timeliness of the reports you read. A lot of this stuff has already occurred and the market has already adjusted prices to take the report into account. If the market has already made its move, you might have to adjust your thinking and current strategy. Keep tabs on just how old this news is or you’ll find yourself “yesterday’s news.” You also have to be able to determine whether the news you’re dealing with is fact or fiction, rumor or opinion. Economic data rumors do exist, and they can occur minutes to several hours before a scheduled release of data. The rumors help to produce some short-term trader action, and they can sometimes also have a lasting effect on market sentiment. Institutional traders are also often rumored to be behind large moves, but it’s hard to know the truth with a decentralized market like spot forex. There’s never a simple way of verifying the truth. Your job as a forextrader is to create a good trading plan and quickly react to such news about rumors, after they’ve been proven true or false. Having a well-rounded risk management plan in this case could save you! And the final tip: Know who is reporting the news. Are we talking analysts or economists, economist or the owner of the newest forex blog on the block? Maybe a central bank analyst?The more reading and watching you do of forex news and media, the more finance and currency professionals you’ll be exposed to. Are they offering merely an opinion or a stated fact based on recently released data? The more you know about the “Who”, the better off you will be in understanding how accurate the news is. Those who report the news often have their own agenda and have their own strengths and weaknesses. Get to know the people that “know”, so YOU can “know”. |
Plan B ! Hotter than fire.
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5 Success Tips for Jumia Sellers Online sales, or “E-Commerce”, continue to increase in popularity and are slowly replacing in-store shopping as the standard. As E-commerce grows in popularity in Nigeria, Jumia, the Nigeria’s largest online retailer, is leading the way. Active for several years, Jumia is truly a pioneer in the world of seller communities and E-Commerce, bridging states and people together and offering almost anything you can imagine for sale. Nowadays, you can easily set up an Jumia Seller account to sell anything from groceries to custom iPad cases to baby clothes. Jumia offers pricing packages, fulfillment services (through Jumia Fulfillment), payment solutions and other options to boost and advertise your store or products. If you’re an Jumia seller, you’re probably always looking for ways to boost your sales and draw people to your webstore. If you’re not a seller yet but are thinking of joining Jumia, you’re probably wondering how to do it in the best way possible. Either way, these 5 simple tips will definitely point you in the right direction: Use Appealing Photos We all know that what we see greatly influences us. A good photo of a product will most likely make you want it even more than an average photo. Your products need to shine in eye-catching and selling photographs. Experiment with textures, background, lighting and angles; a small change makes a great difference! There are thousands of the same product on Jumia – make yours stand out. Pay Attention to Pricing and Shipping With a multitude of products and similar stores and product niches, you have to distinguish yourself by presenting competitive prices to your client audience. If you present your products in a unique way, with a good price, customers will come flocking. In addition, do some research on shipping methods and pricing – people are always looking for the best “price+shipping” combo. Fulfillment by Jumia can also come in handy in terms of packaging and shipping, to help boost your sales Information is Key Without a solid and interesting description, customers won’t be that keen to buy your products; they’ll prefer to buy the product that specifically tells them what they’ll get. Invest some time in accurately describing what you’re selling. Make sure your descriptions give all the information about the product and address your target audience. Invest in Customer Service The best way to gain popularity and credibility on Jumia (and E-Commerce in general) is through positive ratings and feedback. Make an effort to be there for your customers – answer questions, address any shipping/pricing issues and do your best to provide a perfect buying experience. Those customers will enjoy your service, come back for more and praise you on Jumia and online – which will obviously bring more business and make you stand out as a credible, trusted seller. Marketing 101 Jumia offers sellers many marketing tools and opportunities to boost your store and sales, and it would be silly to not take advantage of them! Jumia has all the tools you need to manage your store and promote it. Also – don’t forget to use Social Media platforms: Facebook, Twitter and Google+ are the default 3 you need to use to promote your products, so make sure to stay active. It’s a good idea to create a blog where you share your experience, products and business in general. |
What is the Best Technical Indicator in Forex? Now on to the good stuff: Just how profitable is each technical indicator on its own? After all, forex traders don’t include these technical indicators just to make their charts look nicer. T Traders are in the business of making money! If these indicators generate signals that don’t translate into a profitable bottom line over time, then they’re simply not the way to go for your needs! In order to give y’all a comparison of the effectiveness of each technical indicator, we’ve decided to backtest each of the indicators on their own. Backtesting involves retroactively testing the parameters of the indicators against historical price action.
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cyberhike:My contact is on my signature ,PM me |
currentprice:Currentprice yaf vex finally |
Feshizzy:What an elder sees while sitting down can never be seen by a kid climbing the highest of the mountain. Meeting people like you makes FOREX Journey a very interesting one but please answer currentprice question above. |
Feshizzy:This should be one of those that attended Forex class on a weekend . 10am-5pm on Saturday . |
Feshizzy:Little should I wonder, Alabajo. Strictly babypips trader ,no real market knowledge. |
Feshizzy:I guess this hommie is a frustrated trader that just blew his account and that's why he is transferring the aggression to me. Laakuuli , rolling on the floor laughing. This laugh wan make me shit for body Oo°˚˚˚° . |
jorel1:Bravo @ Jorel1, u said it all. Lakuuli ! Laugh wan comot my teeth Oo°˚˚˚° . Lips sealed! Fingers crossed. O shey. |
Feshizzy:Was their any physical thing someone was buying and someone selling ? The concept of Forex is very different from the traditional market buying and selling. If A bought at #10 and B is buying at #15,it doesn't mean A is selling for #15. This is price speculation. You can only buy and exiit your trade or sell and exit your trade,that's why its a two edged market. This is also the reason why you can come to the market today and choose to be a seller first. You are selling what you have not bought right? That you are exiting your trade doesn't mean you are selling . If A bought at #10 and sold again at #15,then it is 2 transactions each standing on their own. You said when Mr A was buying someone was selling, you are wrong sir. We can all choose to be buying and that's when a currency price starts shooting up and its over-priced. This is what happened some years back that made GOLD to be overpriced cos many believe GOLD should always increase in value and they made it a safe-haven until the crash. Anyway,I don't know if am talking to a real trader here cos you don't seem to understand Forex, so that I won't be talking amidst. You can buy and at the same time sell,it doesn't mean that your sell trade has cancelled your buy trade,instead you are having 2 opened trades. This is not garri market where you buy and sell what you bought. In forex, you buy and exit or you sell and exit. Not buy and later sell like the traditional market. I seal my lips and crossed my fingers till you call me back to do otherwise with your comment. |
Feshizzy:Was their any physical thing someone was buying and someone selling ? The concept of Forex is very different from the traditional market buying and selling. If A bought at #10 and B is buying at #15,it doesn't mean A is selling for #15. This is price speculation. You can only buy and exiit your trade or sell and exit your trade,that's why its a two edged market. That you are exiting your trade doesn't mean you are selling . If A bought at #10 and sold again at #15,then it is 2 transactions each standing on their own. You said when Mr A was buying someone was selling, you are wrong sir. We can all choose to be buying and that's when a currency price starts shooting up and its over-priced. This is what happened some years back that made GOLD to be overpriced cos many believe GOLD should always increase in value and they made it a safe-haven until the crash. Anyway,I don't know if am talking to a real trader here cos you don't seem to understand Forex, so that I won't be talking amidst. You can buy and at the same time sell,it doesn't mean that your sell trade has cancelled your buy trade,instead you are having 2 opened trades. This is not garri market where you buy and sell what you bought. In forex, you buy and exit or you sell and exit. Not buy and later sell like the traditional market. I seal my lips and crossed my fingers till you call me back to do otherwise with your comment. |
Feshizzy:Was their any physical thing someone was buying and someone selling ? The concept of Forex is very different from the traditional market buying and selling. If A bought at #10 and B is buying at #15,it doesn't mean A is selling for #15. This is price speculation. You can only buy and exiit your trade or sell and exit your trade,that's why its a two edged market. This is also the reason why you can come to the market today and choose to be a seller first. You are selling what you have not bought right? That you are exiting your trade doesn't mean you are selling . If A bought at #10 and sold again at #15,then it is 2 transactions each standing on their own. You said when Mr A was buying someone was selling, you are wrong sir. We can all choose to be buying and that's when a currency price starts shooting up and its over-priced. This is what happened some years back that made GOLD to be overpriced cos many believe GOLD should always increase in value and they made it a safe-haven until the crash. Anyway,I don't know if am talking to a real trader here cos you don't seem to understand Forex, so that I won't be talking amidst. You can buy and at the same time sell,it doesn't mean that your sell trade has cancelled your buy trade,instead you are having 2 opened trades. This is not garri market where you buy and sell what you bought. In forex, you buy and exit or you sell and exit. Not buy and later sell like the traditional market. I seal my lips and crossed my fingers till you call me back to do otherwise with your comment. |
Feshizzy:I am not here to argue ,I have said what I know about the market , 9 years is no joke. But before I seal my lip for your noise to be louder, does the profit made by Mr. A from the loss of Mr. C or D. That Mr C or D entered the market at the wrong time towards the wrong side doesn't mean their loss is what Mr. A made as profit. Lips Sealed and Fingers Crossed, I am a silent follower. |
Singapore1:Laakuli ! Laugh wan comot my teeth Oo°˚˚˚° |
Singapore1:Laakuli! Laugh wan comot my teeth Oo°˚˚˚° |
Seun:Very wrong sir ! In Forex,its not necessary that someone must loose for another person to make profit . Nay ! The concept is very simple, Mr A bought at #10 and when price rose to #15 he decided to exit his trade. At that point in time of exit ,there are some new entrants that are ready and willing to buy at #15 for a future rise in price. If the new entrants Mr B bought at #15 for future price gain, Mr A that is exiting would have made profit for buying from #10. In a nutshell, someone don't necessarily have to loose for another person gain, though in most cases we have greater loosers than gainers and that is due to not being versatile in the real KNOWLEDGE and BEHAVIOUR of the market. |
When the RSI reached the overbought area and gave a sell signal, the MACD soon followed with a downward crossover, which is also a sell signal. And, as you can see, the price did move downhill from there. Later on, the RSI dipped to the oversold region and gave a buy signal. A few hours after, the MACD made an upward crossover, which is also a buy signal. From there, the price made a steady climb. More pips for us. You probably noticed in this example that the RSI gives signals ahead of the MACD. Because of the various properties and magic formulas for the technical indicators, some really do give early signals while others are a bit delayed. As you continue your journey as a trader, you will discover which indicators work best for you. We can tell you that we like using MACD, the Stochastic, and RSI, but you might have a different preference. Every trader out there has tried to find the “magic combination” of indicators that will give them the right signals all the time, but the truth is that there is no such thing. We urge you to study each indicator on its own until you know the tendencies of how it behaves relative to price movement, and then come up with your own combination that you understand and that fits your trading style. |
Check out that those sell signals from the Bollinger bands and the Stochastic. EUR/USD climbed until the top of the band, which usually acts as a resistance level. At the same time, the Stochastic reached the overbought area, suggesting that the price could drop down soon. And what happened next? EUR/USD fell by around 300 pips and you would’ve made a hefty profit if you took that short trade. Later on, the price made contact with the bottom of the band, which usually serves as a support level. This means that the pair could bounce up from there. With the Stochastic in the oversold area, it means we should go long. If you took that trade, you would have gotten around 400 pips! Not bad! Here’s another example, with the RSI and the MACD this time.
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Trading with Multiple Chart Indicators Now that you know how some of the most common chart indicators work, you’re ready to get down and dirty with some examples. Better yet, let’s combine some of these indicators and see how their trade signals pan out. In a perfect world, we could take just one of these indicators and trade strictly by what that indicator told us. The problem is that we DON’T live in a perfect world, and each of these indicators has imperfections. That is why many traders combine different indicators together so that they can “screen” each other. They might have 3 different indicators and they won’t trade unless all 3 indicators give them the same signal. In this first example, we’ve got the Bollinger bands and the Stochastic on EUR/USD’s 4-hour chart. Since the market seems to be ranging or moving sideways, we’d better watch out for the Bollinger bounce.
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EUR/USD had been dropping the week, falling about 400 pips over the course of two weeks. On June 7, it was already trading below the 1.2000 handle. However, RSI dropped below 30, signaling that there might be no more sellers left in the market and that the move could be over. Price then reversed and headed back up over the next couple of weeks. Determining the Trend using RSI RSI is a very popular tool because it can also be used to confirm trend formations. If you think a trend is forming, take a quick look at the RSI and look at whether it is above or below 50.If you are looking at a possible uptrend, then make sure the RSI is above 50. If you are looking at a possible downtrend, then make sure the RSI is below 50. In the beginning of the chart below, we can see that a possible downtrend was forming. To avoid fake outs, we can wait for RSI to cross below 50 to confirm our trend. Sure enough, as RSI passes below 50, it is a good confirmation that a downtrend has actually formed.
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How to Trade Using RSI RSI can be used just like the stochastic. We can use it to pick potential tops and bottoms depending on whether the market is overbought or oversold. Below is a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD.
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How to Use RSI (Relative Strength Index) Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is similar to the stochastic in that it identifies overbought and oversold conditions in the market. It is also scaled from 0 to 100. Typically, readings below 30 indicate oversold, while readings over 70 indicate overbought.
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