₦airaland Forum

What has changed? Nothing!

Loco, come see oo... : https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44361_C_AND_I_LEASING_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JUNE_2025.pdf

Payunsin:
Is VFD a good buy ?
I want to buy tomorrow

Sure, but make sure you have the genes of Methuselah, to count your expected huge gains ...

Mankind2024:
De Prof, u no go kill person, na so so laff I just dey laff.
No other words can describe the dreamer of our time. From debt conversion to equity holdings, and from equity holdings back to debt conversion - the cycle continues. Now, the final stake is N250B of MOP-GBU-57, which seems poised for the effective obliteration of investor funds. Chuka Mordi appears to be a senior player in this game. Tingo Farm serves as a stepping template, while modern CBEX and MMM seem to be playing out a familiar script in our time.

Gen Z go hear ween! Their financial experimental lab is getting ready at No. 250 Ballistic Academy, Ellah street, behind Forced Long Term Avenue, Capital obliteration close, down town NGX. Most will become the experimental guinea pigs. Soon, Isaac will know how there are no clear rules to what can be called a sacrificial item. I foresee the investors here as the plantations. When you can't unwrap the business convincingly to your little kids, you are their products..

Payunsin:
Need advice on what to buy tomorrow pls

Lease a car to carry you to go buy suya...

Streetinvestor2:
That man with funny tie/suit is the big problem with ellahlakes. I will explain based on my more digging.
As of when telluria farm Ltd took over ellahlakes though maintained the name as ellahlakes because it was already a listed company but insolvent with just 122 million os.They created 1.88 billion additional shares to telluria Ltd because they whr bigger and doing well.This was the easiest way to be a listed entity.
Telluria had already 2400 hectares cultivated palm producing which has increased only by 200 hectares since 2019.They had no mill and was only selling FFB while ellahlakes was a failed fish farm.
Why has the ceo been declaring no revenue for all this yrs which was not so before the merger because telluria had already matured palm farm and was making revenue. as ltd company



Then on 250 billion I don't think ellahlakes want to acquire any existing business or farm.
I am more inclined they want to try step change instead of incremental growth which comes with many risk. Then again the ceo is still the red flag.
If they are able to raise the fund it will take time to produce results like you are seeing in dangota sugar backward integration drive.
I believe it will involve likely this 4 stages
1 stabilisation/commissioning
2 Processing scale -up of different Mills
3 crop diversification and SEZ build out
4 Export and full integration.

The biggest problem is the ceo who has not been transparent and integrity in question.
What I mentioned above is achieveable if the will ,trust and dedication is in mind like how alhaji refinery was achieved. How the 250 billion will come is the first big challenge.
Like oga nose said, why does he want to fly instead of crawl at this point.

Pls I could be wrong because everything up thr is AI assisted findings. This is never a financial advise. My personal opinion I don't still trust the ceo till he redeems himself by being transparent .Disclosure, I don't have a unit of this shares and don't have plans to buy.I am involved because is a sector I have passion about it..lol

Ellah Lakes is not your average ticker,this one’s a certified adrenaline sport for technically inclined gladiators like BBM. It’s a sweet sandbox for rookie demos, a quick “nope” for die-hard fundamentalists like the legendary Pa Emma, and a deliciously toxic dessert for niche speculators in the school of Jijo, led by none other than Loco.
To elite level stock pickers like CP, it’s a high-frequency, blinking red zone ticker screaming “Approach with algorithmic caution!” For the uninitiated wandering in without coordinates, this thing is a fully armed GBU-57 (MOP- Massive Ordinance Penetrator), bunker buster, one wrong step, and boom, an obliteration switch with no undo button! Hiroshima grade fallout meets Chernobyl style regret.
There’s already an oversupply of empty cans standing by, just waiting for perfect delivery with sniper grade precision. Make no mistake this is not a long-term investment. This is what I call the longest-term speculation on the NGX.
Don’t quote me, I could be dead wrong until the day Ellah Lakes successfully raises capital and that funding physically lands in their corporate wallet. From then on, the Oando grade losses of those years may pale in comparison. You’ll wish the gate men at the Lakes would issue press releases, because by then, the social media enthusiasts will have achieved total cyber invisibility. No more fanciful interviews. Just dead silence.

This is my street sense.

Soliloquy!

SonofElElyonRet:
28th June is Saturday

A thief comes, but at odd hours, sneaking like his ancient great grandfather melted into the garden of Eden as Adam no longer stood guard. Whispering sweetly the rebellious and deceptive whispers in the longing ears of the first feminist.
Sourced here: https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44080_C_AND_I_LEASING_PLC.-PRESS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2025.pdf.

Scroll of Gain Unsealed: The last word Concerning See and Live.
Chapter 24, Verses 1–11
1. Hearken, O watchers upon the high towers of the marketplace.
Raise a shout in the courts of equity, let the alarm be heard upon the hills of capital!
The hour of unveiling draweth close, and the day of reckoning is at hand.
2. On the twenty-eighth day of the sixth moon, in the twenty-fifth year of the age,
The sealed balances shall be opened, and the accounts long hidden shall speak.
3. Behold, the first chapter of the new quarter was withheld,
For the foundation must be laid before the upper chamber may rise.
But now the root is exposed, and the branches shall bloom swiftly in the squares.
4. In a vision, I saw the light of the Naira flare on the altar of numbers,
And the value, once five and thirteen, bounded as a gazelle upon the ridge.
They who stood early shall feast on grain and wine.
5. Let the discerning take heed:
If the first burst be as lightning from the east,
Shall not the second come as a flood breaking through gates of bronze?
6. Cursed be the doubters and the latecomers!
They shall rise at the sound of profit, but the gates shall already be shut.
They shall hunt for fire, yet the embers shall have cooled.
7. Happy are the sons of insight, like Issachar, who read the signs,
And prepare their barns though the field yet sleeps.
8. Let the bulls gather without delay at the borders of see and live;
Let them claim their inheritance before the multitude awakens with longing.
9. For a channel is opened from the distant east,
And favor from foreign shores shall rest upon the vessels and leases of this house.
10. The Voice of Expansion declareth:
Make thyself ready. lo, the latter rains begin!
The fig tree puts forth her buds, and the vineyard shall not fail in its pressing.
11. Write these words plainly and let them not be concealed;
Cry them in the corridors of trade.
He that hath understanding, let him act before the sun is fully risen.

Selah. Let the bulls be summoned.

Loco don tell driver to leave park...

My ChatGpt prompt whenever an earnings report is released :
*ChatGpt Finance Prompt:*
Give me a full detailed and forensic financial and investment analysis of the attached results here. Cover in details the income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and valuation ratios. Compare it with industry benchmarks and historical performance. Conclude with a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, with clear reasoning. Peruse in details all the notes in the financial statement and indicate all red flags.
Determine the fair price based on this attached result using at least three most standard valuation models.
Include recent corporate actions or capital raises.
Assess dividend sustainability.
Factor in macroeconomic risks like FX and inflation.
Include chart patterns or breakout signals if possible.
Determine if there is any window dressing of this results. Fish out all grey areas.

I applied this prompt to the current Oando results. See below what I got in response:


ChatGpt:
Here's a forensic and investment-grade financial analysis of Oando Plc’s Q1 2025 unaudited interim report, covering the income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, key financial ratios, red flags, valuation models, and investment recommendation:

🧾 1. INCOME STATEMENT ANALYSIS (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Metric Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000) % Change

Revenue 932,574 915,420 +1.88%
Gross Profit 85,426 31,409 +171.94%
Operating Income (120,339) 117,202 N/M
Net Finance Income 67,777 (46,855) +244.6%
Profit Before Tax (52,562) 70,347 N/M
Net Profit (Group) 113,058 59,346 +90.5%

📌 Observation:
Despite a higher net profit, this was due to a massive income tax credit (₦165.6bn). Operating performance was actually negative, driven by a large other operating loss of ₦301.9bn, which warrants scrutiny.

🧮 2. BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS

Key Highlights (Group):

Item Q1 2025 (₦’bn) FY 2024 (₦’bn)

Total Assets 6,834 6,434
Total Liabilities 7,074 6,795
Equity (240) (361)
Cash and Equivalents 303.9 221.8
Borrowings (Total) 3,038.6 2,772


📌 Observation:

Negative Equity (-₦240bn): Highly concerning. Accumulated losses continue to erode capital.

Borrowings increased by ₦266bn, indicating reliance on debt financing

💰 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

Segment Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000)

Net Operating CF (176,976) +379,289
Net Investing CF (38,992) (1,197)
Net Financing CF +327,153 (157,465)
Net Change in Cash +111,184 +220,627


📌 Red Flag: Cash flow from operations turned negative, meaning the company is relying on financing activities (mostly new borrowings) to remain liquid.

📊 4. RATIO ANALYSIS

a. Profitability

Gross Margin = 9.2% (vs 3.4% in Q1 2024) ✅

Net Margin = 12.1% (vs 6.5%) ✅ (but driven by tax credit)

ROA ≈ 1.65%

ROE = N/A (Negative Equity)


b. Liquidity

Current Ratio = 1.17x (1,235bn / 1,054bn) ✅

Quick Ratio ≈ 1.0x


c. Solvency

Debt-to-Equity = Negative (₦3.04tr debt on -₦240bn equity) ❌

Debt-to-Assets = 44.5% ❗


d. Valuation Multiples (Estimates; needs market cap):

P/E: Assuming ~₦5/share EPS (quarterly annualized), P/E ~1.5–2x — appears low, but driven by tax credits.

EV/EBITDA: Likely elevated due to poor core earnings.

🔎 5. RED FLAGS & GREY AREAS

1. ₦301.9bn "Other Operating Loss"

This is unusually large. It may relate to FX losses, derivative losses, or asset impairments. Needs clarity from note 4.

2. Tax Credit of ₦165.6bn

Not from core operations. Likely from deferred tax adjustments. Not sustainable.

3. Negative Retained Earnings

Group: (₦181.2bn)

Company: (₦560bn)


4. Window Dressing Indicators

Strong net profit contrasts with poor operating and cash performance — suggest accounting gains.

Large deferred tax asset increase (+₦36bn) and impairment reversals hint at aggressive assumptions.

📌 6. FAIR VALUE ESTIMATION (₦)

Using conservative trailing/forward metrics and industry multiples:

a. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assuming:

EBITDA ~₦60bn (normalized)

WACC = 18%

Growth = 2%

Enterprise Value = ₦360bn

Debt = ₦3tr → Equity value = Negative


b. Relative Valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA)

P/E of 4x on sustainable EPS of ₦3 = ₦12 fair value

EV/EBITDA = 5x on ₦60bn → EV = ₦300bn → Negative equity again.


c. Book Value Multiple (P/B)

Book value is negative, so P/B is not usable.

📌 Estimated Conservative Fair Price: ₦8–₦10 (if normalized EPS is sustainable)
📌 Aggressive Valuation: ₦12–₦15 (if full tax credits are repeatable)

📈 7. CHART PATTERNS & BREAKOUT SIGNALS

Do you want me to analyze current NGX price action for OANDO with chart patterns and Ichimoku/Keltner/Volume breakout setups?

🧾 8. DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY

No dividend paid

Dividend Payable of ₦1.65bn on books from prior years

Negative equity and cash burn = unsustainable for dividend resumption.

🌍 9. MACRO RISKS: FX & INFLATION

Naira depreciation significantly affects cost of servicing USD debts (Oando has material FX exposure).

High inflation pressures margins and borrowing costs.

Crude oil price volatility remains a core business risk.

🏁 10. INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

✅ Verdict: HOLD with High Speculative Risk

Pros:

Revenue stability

Positive tax-driven net profit

Operational asset base with growth potential


Cons:

Negative equity

Cash flow issues

Highly leveraged

Masked core profitability (possible window dressing)

🧠 Strategic Play:

Only for speculative investors betting on oil recovery, asset sale, or restructuring.

Strong activist or institutional moves (like recapitalization) could rerate valuation.

Agbalowomeri:
For where. He still dey trek come from Sahel

E be like him no know and can't identify ololo. Him for know say if ololo land, Japaul for don dey dust N75. Jegede na him for first signal the entry of dat gentleman. At the appearance of ololo, no conductor dey gree open bus even for air to enter..

PETERiCHY:
LOCO have MERCY on those in Cileasing BOAT ⛵, if you REALLY want it to MOVE. you know exactly WHAT to DO.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

No be you go kill me. Kai, your father and your whole village lost their investment in you. You just insisted to become a big success in comedy. Lol.
Make Loco go sell abi. Lol.

yMcy56:
Betaglass @333.95 intraday!

In fact, if some of you here wey don over-hammer in this market don't do take away this December, hhmm, make I no talk wetin dey my mind.... 😁

Btw, what's wrong with FCMB?
Why is it a laggard in that sector, even with good results?
It's not supposed to be selling below 12 by now....

My boss bought huge volume at N43. He told me he will sell at N500 when he bought. I told him he has malaria. He said I shouldn't bother buying drugs for him. He is still insisting to sell at N500. Hmmm! He is truly a crocodile. He also told me that it's only after CI cross N15 (book value), then N20 that I will start seeing why he will sell CI at N150. I can't be like him. I no fit look stock do X3 and still hold. My village people dey pursue me. Well una been dey call him Crocodile for here. I now truly agree he is a crocodile. If I try his kind of patience, na the patience go even kill me. Imagine how Beta was very very very illiquid for years! I still believe he has malaria concerning CI..

Agbalowomeri:
The babe wan do detty December

Abeg tell her that we don't sell stocks in November

It's actually our buying time, but who knows whether she wan contribute for her wedding arrangements or even to reduce your vacation bills...

nicestlady:
I'm new to all this. Please any advice on what stock to buy? Want to hold for a short period and sell by November. What app is best to use?

Buy CILeasing and shut your ears!
I love people who appreciate God. When you sell in November don't forget to thank God immensely for his mercies on you. Best wishes.

B4 Friday, all seats wil appear booked. Tickets will all be sold out. Loco will be on the wheel but will refuse to issue more tickets. Windows sealed for all of next week! Make hay tomorrow. 28th is a Saturday! Be vigilant, be calm, be patient. The ProMoTion guy is serving it hot hot...

leo1234:
Not yet.

So you are in this bus prof?

Nbst. Police na our friend naw. We suppose partner with them.

Has anyone here received his NPFMCRFBK dividend?

Loco don buy all the remaining CI. Loco, is the result ready or you dey still do your hide and seek?.

Pennystockwarri:
For those who missed the conversation with the management of Ellah Lakes, you can listen to the replay here.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2axEHMgLrACGVdAKL3sFNc?si=oNj20WrUTHujgjKXc8QnfQ

Anoda conversation is needed by the management. The effect of this one is over..