₦airaland Forum

Judge Thokozile Masipa has found Olympic athlete Oscar Pistorius guilty of culpable homicide, after he shot his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp dead on Valentines' Day 2013.
But she acquitted him of two charges of murder.
Here is a guide to the judge's reasoning:

Premeditated murder
The state argued that Mr Pistorius had had an argument with Ms Steenkamp, after which he deliberately shot her dead.
The judge ruled this had not been proved, as there was only circumstantial evidence of an argument - uncorroborated witnesses' statements.
She also dismissed witnesses who said they had heard Ms Steenkamp scream before the shots were fired, or before the final shot.
"The state has not proved beyond reasonable doubt that the accused is guilty of premeditated murder," she said. "There are just not enough facts to support such a finding."
The judge found that he consistently said he had fired in the belief there was an intruder and she had no reason to disbelieve him.
She noted that to be acquitted, a defendant only had to give a version of events which could reasonably, possibly be true.
Many South Africans have disagreed with Judge Thokozile Masipa's arguments

Common-law murder
He could also have been convicted of a lesser charge of murder, if he had unlawfully intended to kill in the heat of the moment but without "malice aforethought".
This could have covered either shooting at the door intending to kill, or knowing someone might be killed and still firing a gun.
This would also apply if he had intended to kill an intruder but had instead killed his girlfriend.
But judge Masipa also dismissed this, saying: "The accused had the intention to shoot at the person behind the door, not to kill - the evidence failed to prove the accused had intention."
She also said the prosecution had not proven that he "accepted the possibility of killing

Culpable homicide (manslaughter)
This means there was no intention to kill but the actions were negligent and not in keeping with a reasonable person.
Judge Masipa said that Mr Pistorius had ample time to call for help, rather than going to confront a perceived intruder with a loaded gun.
"The accused had reasonable time to reflect, to think and conduct himself reasonably," she said.
"The accused knew that there was a person behind the door, he chose to use a firearm which was a lethal weapon, was competent in the use of firearms as he had received training."
The judge rejected the defence arguments that Mr Pistorius is more likely to confront danger because of his disability - both his legs have been amputated.
"Vulnerability is not unique - There are many people in this country without any form of security at all," she said.
She summed up by saying: "The accused acted too hastily and used excessive force."
"It is clear that his conduct was negligent."
The sentence for culpable homicide is a maximum of 15 years in jail. Legal experts say seven to 10 years is more likely.

Other charges
Mr Pistorius was also convicted of illegally discharging a firearm in a restaurant - he could receive a jail term on this charge alone.
He was acquitted of illegally firing a gun through a car sunroof, after the judge said the witnesses were unreliable.
He was also acquitted of illegal possession of ammunition.
He will be sentenced on 13 October.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29162620.

The judge in the Oscar Pistorius trial has ruled out all murder charges, but says he may still be guilty of culpable homicide (manslaughter).
Judge Thokozile Masipa said the prosecution had failed to prove the Olympic athlete killed his girlfriend deliberately in the toilet after a row, prompting tears from Mr Pistorius.
He cannot have foreseen killing whoever was behind the toilet door, she said.
She added he was an evasive witness but this did not mean he was guilty.
The South African Olympic sprinter denies murdering Reeva Steenkamp on Valentine's Day last year, saying he thought there was an intruder.
Mr Pistorius, 27, has pleaded not guilty to all the charges he faces, including two counts of shooting a firearm in public and the illegal possession of ammunition.
'Facts wrong'
Judge Masipa began by detailing the charges against the athlete and repeating extracts of his testimony, reading in a slow, measured way.
She then moved on to a summary of the trial.
A tense-looking Mr Pistorius looked on from the dock, and wept several times during the proceedings.
The judge questioned the reliability of several witnesses who apparently heard screams and gunshots at the time of the incident, saying most of those who said they had heard the incident had "got facts wrong".
The prosecution had used these witnesses to try to prove that Mr Pistorius had killed Ms Steenkamp with premeditation after an argument.
Later in her judgement, Judge Masipa concluded that the prosecution had failed in this.
"The state has not proved beyond reasonable doubt that the accused is guilty of premeditated murder," she said. "There are just not enough facts to support such a finding."
The judge added that the accused believed his life was in danger and therefore could not be found guilty of a lesser charge of murder.
Judge: Killing not premeditated murder
"How could the accused reasonably have foreseen that the shot he fired would kill the deceased?" she said.
"Clearly he did not subjectively foresee this as a possibility, that he would kill the person behind the door, let alone the deceased as he thought she was in the bedroom at the time."
But Judge Masipa then adjourned for lunch without ruling out culpable homicide, which suggests negligence without intention to kill and which could still mean a jail sentence.
The BBC's Andrew Harding says the court is witnessing Judge Masipa's logic and style - gentle, tolerant of error from witnesses, but razor sharp.
Correspondents say the judge appeared to be moving much more quickly than expected through the evidence, in a process which had been expected take more than a few hours or even days.
Most of the trial, which began on 3 March 2014, has been televised and attracted worldwide attention.
Before the fatal shooting, the 27-year-old athlete was feted in South Africa and known as the "blade runner".
He had won gold at the London 2012 Paralympic Games and also competed at the Olympics.
Oscar Pistorius began to weep as the judge read her verdict
Reeva Steenkamp's parents were present for the verdict
Mr Pistorius's family were also in the courtroom
In 2012, Oscar Pistorius made history by becoming the first double amputee to run in the Olympic Games
The judgement at his trial is likely to be well over 100 pages. The judge is going through each charge, summing up the prosecution and defence cases and analysing the evidence.
Ms Steenkamp, a 29-year-old model and law graduate, was hit three times by bullets shot through a toilet door by Mr Pistorius at his home in the capital, Pretoria, in the early hours of 14 February 2013.
He denies the prosecution's allegation that the couple - who had been dating for three months - had rowed.
The athlete said he thought she was still in the bedroom when he heard a noise in the bathroom, which he believed to be an intruder.
The prosecution have tried to characterise Mr Pistorius as a "hothead", while his defence team have portrayed him as having a heightened response to perceived danger because of his disability and background.
In July, a psychiatric report requested by the judge said Mr Pistorius had post-traumatic stress disorder but no mental illness that could prevent him being held criminally responsible for his actions.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29143540.

Basically the 2015 presidential elections won’t necessarily be about if Jonathan was clueless on running the affairs of the country or APC is the main supporter of Boko Haram in a bid to discredit the Jonathan Administration. The election will be decided based on how many states each party is controlling and how well they are able to hold on to their states.
In reality each State Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicians have created to feed fat on the Nation. Which is more than enough reason to ensure the ruling party wins in the state

Attached is the current ruling party in each state

Currently PDP controls 21 states in the federation, adding PDP front, APGA controlled Anambra to the list, effectively makes it 22 compared to the 14 states controlled by the APC. This makes the PDP the most likely party that can win the presidential elections with a simple majority and easily fulfill the electoral requirements of achieving at least 25% of the votes in 24 states.
Knowing fully well that each Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicains have created to feed fat on the Nation.

APC still have the small matter of who their presidential candidate will be, Buhari, Kwankanso, Atiku or even Tambuwal, well whatever the outcome and in typical Nigerian Politicians fashion the losers will stop supporting APC or at worst join PDP leading to loss of votes for APC. For PDP this is already a foregone conclusion the presidential candidate is Jonathan, PDP will not suffer an attrition in its ranks if Jonathan wins the primary which will be a mere formality.

The tricky part will be PDP losing some of the states they controlled especially in the north. Going by the 2011 presidential elections, states like Bauchi, Jigawa, Kastina, Kebbi and Niger were all won by the CPC in the 2011 presidential elections despite having PDP sitting governors. But not to forget that APC controlled states of Edo, Imo, Rivers and Kwara have predominantly voted PDP in presidential elections, assuming only three of these states voted PDP again in 2015, the assumed state voting results will see PDP winning 20 states and APC winning 16. Give or take whichever party the FCT voted on, Jonathan will still be able to win the presidential elections come 2015, though the margins might be slim but I guess it will be enough.
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