₦airaland Forum

Ebus03:
Price itself is a lagging indicator. I think this is one of the best lessons i have learned in forex trading.

You are right about this, if you want to see this happening live, just watch what happens in your chart during high volatile moments like during a news release, you'd see your chart squeezing right in front of your eyes as price moves up or down at a very fast pace.

That's why I don't make use of the auto screen function on tradingview because it doesn't allow you see how price has changed in volatility in previous days.

LincolnOnyeabor:
Could I message you please boss


This really looks interesting.

I'm more of a Forex trader at the moment than Crypto.

Just give me guides, notes and pointers on how to read and interpret the charts using this volume.

Where and how do I begin?? Thanks very much for this boss.

I don't have access to the email I registered with here anymore. I've said it ad nauseam times here about how and where to start, just take your time to go through my previous posts on this thread, particularly this year.

LincolnOnyeabor:
Good day boss.

Does this volume thing work in Forex market??

Is there a way one can induce or see it in Forex market??

Yes it does, I just made use of it on the Pound/New Zealand Dollar yesterday. Price literally stopped moving up and ranged for the rest of the day.

I didn't know it was going to stop going up but that exhaustion I saw in buying volume signified it and that was exactly what happened.

Let me explain how the tick volume delta indicator works in a layman term so you can understand why it's easy to use to gauge the market.

Imagine you're doing push ups, even if I don't know how many push ups you can do. Maybe 150, 200 etc it doesn't matter.

But if I watch you doing it, I can know when you're getting tired and would get exhausted anytime soon. You can say how?

Let's assume it takes you 6seconds to do 10 push ups, and you kept up this pace till you got to 70, after this, it starts taking you 8seconds to do 10, you are getting tired, even if I don't know you from anywhere, I know sooner rather than later you will give up.

You got to 100, and it's now taking you 12seconds to do 10, I'm watching you and keeping note of how slow you've become. I have all these info, because I've paid attention to the pace you started with and the current pace you're now, I know sooner rather than later you would give up.

It's the same with price, because price goes up strongly or weakly doesn't mean the same thing is happening underneath the hood. Some people make use of moving averages to determine this, some Stochastics, whatever it is you want to use to gauge it, you have to be an expert in interpreting it to get high accuracy with it.

geedot:
If I was in this trade, I'd delete the pending orders to enter more shorts after this move downwards and shift the SL on this to BE due to bank holidays today. Low volume environment has been established, and we might just range for the rest of the day, adding to the fact that today is the last trading day of the week.

Aren't we ranging as said?

geedot:
If I trade currency pairs, this is where I would enter some positions, and keep some for when the top is broken to enter the rest in anticipation of the imminent fall in price.
Like I said earlier, sorry I'm posting this on a crypto thread, just for learning purpose.

If I was in this trade, I'd delete the pending orders to enter more shorts after this move downwards and shift the SL on this to BE due to bank holidays today. Low volume environment has been established, and we might just range for the rest of the day, adding to the fact that today is the last trading day of the week.

iLegendd:
Anyway, great experience you had there.

My main strategy is volume, multiple accounts and waiting for the big boys to dump or pump the market 10% in a day, then I'll swing in like a red vulture to see what I can steal with the help of trend, the cycle we're in and volume.

You're welcome bossman.

If I trade currency pairs, this is where I would enter some positions, and keep some for when the top is broken to enter the rest in anticipation of the imminent fall in price.
Like I said earlier, sorry I'm posting this on a crypto thread, just for learning purpose.

Valwezzy:
Inspiring

Would you be kind enough to recommend channels/videos that teach this “Volume strategy” please?

Also, is that your most used strategy at the moment, and is it applicable to alts other than BTC/ETH alone?

I'd really love it if you could help out, thanks in anticipation

It's not my most used, but the only thing I use to determine if I'm longing a falling market or shorting a rising market. Nothing more, nothing less. It takes practice to reach this level but if you watch chart long enough accompanied by volume, you will start finding a way to work out a trading system for yourself.

Most alts have very low trading volume, so it's very easy for one fat finger to alter the flow. This causes inconsistency in the results. Reason why it's recommended to trade only those pairs with huge total trading volume like Bitcoin, Eth, Solana, Xrp too.

You don't need many pairs, I only trade gold and indices, few times Bitcoin. The lower timeframe would give you few trading opportunities daily and that should be enough. So Bitcoin and Eth should cut it for you.

About where to read, I've shared pdfs here before and a thread to read about it from in my previous posts this year. You can go through my previous post in search of them. It takes time, but it will be worth it.

See the GbpNzd chart, it's dropping already.

In the spirit of enlightenment. Check these two charts up, I'm sorry it's not a crypto pair, just trying to use it as an illustration.
The first chart is the naked chart which is meant to convince the average PA traders into believing price could continue moving up. They'd say the trend is up, price has retraced and it's now heading up for continuation. Etc.

Bring out your Fibz and put it, you'd see it reacting to one of the levels, then you might be inclined to enter long with the hope of a continuation.

Now Check chart 2 with the volume indicator: If you are interested in buying and you saw this dying buying volume. Would you still be interested in buying even if your Fibonacci, Moving Averages, Stochastics are telling you to buy?

Just think about it again, stay blessed and have a wonderful weekend.

iLegendd:
I won't lie, I have watched almost all crypto-related videos on YouTube, but now, I have a mind of my own from experience and if I write a story book on crypto, it'll be the funniest with lots of wisdom and lessons, especially on patience and not listening to 99% of crypto YouTubers' words and avoiding too much noise.

The answer is on the chart while the news is the manipulation, which also ends up showing on the chart, hence, focus on the chart, the cycle you're in, your strategy and less on news/noise unless it's Fed and macroeconomics-related.

The market rewards a diligent specialist.

The end.

In a nutshell, you learned how to fight like the Dothraki screamers, the Volantis Unsullied, the Seconds Sons bastards. You won't understand the above sentence if you didn't see the series Game of Thrones.

I started with price action, the most overhyped concept in trading IMHO. Price action behavior is why most people lose, because the chart alone is meant to confuse you, so to have success alone with price action is going to be a very herculean task.

Then I moved to trading like the bank, lol. Whoever brought that idea must be one delusional individual. How do you expect a retail trader with almost zero knowledge about the financial market trade like Ivy League grads and beat them at it consistently?
Hogwash if you asked me.

I moved to those that see trading as manipulation, I must be honest, this is where my consistency started coming from. I started seeing trading differently, that's because the person I learned this from had an almost 99% win rate. So I would be stupid not to believe whatever he was talking about.
The problem for me was that he uses too many indicators that made me lose interest in his method, as I'm anti indicator trader.
I started trading with naked chart and I never planned on going that indicator route as that might even take few more years to master which I didn't have.

While going through all these phases, I was making money obviously, but it wasn't as consistent as it should, until I came across using volume. It was the light bulb for me. I stopped calling chart Price Action, and instead Price Reaction to volume.

I saw reversals way before they happen, when the average price action traders are waiting for confirmation candle before entering, I was already in at a better price. I short on long bullish candles and long on bearish candles. No need waiting for confirmation in price action, I already made the decision by watching the volume delta with a very huge accuracy.

All in all, we thank God we finally found the path, it wasn't by one's doing. Even though I'm not that religious, I know I'm just lucky I finally found my way around it. Trading is extremely hard, and I hope and pray everyone still out there struggling gets his/her eyes opened soon enough too. Amen.

iLegendd:
1 day TF.

Here is what the creator said:

Spread is determined using the difference in open and close of the candle
Volume change is determined using the ratio of change of volume to previous volume
EMA 10 is used to determine the Spread and multiplied by volume change so the
PRICE(ema10), Volume, Spread(close-open) are merged to one indicator.
Direction changes when ever difference of VSA is positive or negative.

Thanks so much for this.

iLegendd:
By the way, I find VSA Volume Spread Analysis by Traderharikrishna to be slightly more accurate than the normal cumulative volume delta or just volume delta.

I noticed you're already used to the normal delta, hence I didn't want to interrupt you or impose mine on you. I use both though.

When a pump is about to happen, the one you use lets me know ahead of time, but when it's a dump, the other one I mentioned above is more active and more precise.

The main thing is, they both work. It's just some minor lags.

I'm just a loyal partner, I'm used to the volume delta too much that it's become second nature, and win rate up to the roof. I will check the VSA out.

If you don't mind, do you know how the VSA indi does its own calculation? Because from the screenshot you uploaded, the volume profiles appears differently.

I believe if one knows how the calculation is done, it makes it much more easier to find a way to incorporate it into your system or take advantage of the result it gives.

One last thing, with this screenshot you uploaded, it's a daily timeframe I guess. It's showing price is going to fall, how low, I can't say. The VSA buying volume is tiny, could be due to the low activity associated with weekends, but if Monday and Tuesday prints anything similar to this, a fall in price imminent.

The last time they were that small, price fell judging based on your uploaded screenshot.

iLegendd:
You're right. I watched lots of videos on exhaustion to see if the game has changed, but it's still the same, as you explained it. I just didn't want to use big terminologies in my explanation. I wanted simple lay man's English so that it'll stick.

Na why people dey complain say I too dey write long paragraphs and I repeat a lot. It's just to make it memorable. When we hear something 3 times in different ways, they stick more.

I appreciate you chiming in. My incoming lecture will is on 1 day timeframe with death and golden cross. Most people will love it.

The game doesn't change, has never changed and will never change as long as more people are losing than those winning. What changes most of the time is the volatility, the pure logic beneath is still the same as it's always been. Same ole shiiit over and over again.

Welldone boss, looking forward to your next write up.

geedot:
Usually, when exhaustion occurs, which makes the indicator turn yellow, you would usually see that last whoosh in price, which is usually the climax with a long candle, then the next candle is usually the one being absorbed, before the reversal starts fully.

Welldone bossman.

This particular scenario is shown in picture Ilegend uploaded. The tiny doji red candle was when the indi signified the exhaustion by printing yellow bar, then you can see how the last candle was so bullish and appeared as if the upward move had returned, only to have all the strength absorbed by the next candle.

The climax is the one I indicated with white ink, and the absorption with the yellow.

iLegendd:
This explanation is for the two images above. Always refer to them to crosscheck.

2013 Yellow Top

In October, 2013, the indicator didn't have enough data, but lets assume where the yellow arrow is pointing is a yellow candle.

1 in red = month 1, after the yellow printed.
2 in yellow = month 2 and this is the month to sell or first 1 or 2 weeks of the following month, being month 3.

So, yellow printed in October, 2013 and you're to sell two months later, being December 2013 or two months and two weeks later, being January, 2014.

If you had sold the day the yellow printed, you would've sold at less than $500, but if you had sold two months after the yellow printed, you would've sold at above $1,000. The top for that cycle was about $1.2k


2017 Yellow Top

The yellow printed in September of sell year at $5,000 and two months later, being November, it was at $11.5k. If you had waited for 2 months and 1 or 2 weeks, you would've sold at 16k to 19k in December.

Typing...

You are really good. I don't know how this indicator was coded or whatnot, but what I can deduce from it is that, it prints that yellow bar when it signals exhaustion in the dominant order flow in the volume.

Exhaustion alone won't signify a swing point has been made, you need climax then absorption. When these three phases are present, you can be rest assured a swing point has formed and market will reverse.

Where I respect your write up more is the part you made mention of waiting for 2 more candles before entering, and entering at the middle of the third one.


Usually, when exhaustion occurs, which makes the indicator turn yellow, you would usually see that last whoosh in price, which is usually the climax with a long candle, then the next candle is usually the one being absorbed, before the reversal starts fully.

Welldone bossman.

This week's volatility in the stock/indices and even forex was crazy.

Nasdaq was doing 1500-2500points daily like it's nothing, when usually it averages between 400-700points, even gold was doing 1000 daily pips now. Currency pairs? GBPAUD doing 200pips in 5mins without news event whatsoever, when usually the 200pips was supposed to be the daily average move.

Something has changed, I don't know what it is, but it has. Coming out from this alive and unscathed with your equity intact, and even increased after all these brouhaha, is similar to winning a Noble Laurette in trading. You're a god.

Moment like this one will make a better trader out of you, stay calm and enjoy the ride.

Sometime in year 2060, explaining to grandson how you maneuver one of the roughest and toughest trading year so far.

geedot:
My long outlook on Bitcoin for during London session. I want price closing below that low on this timeframe, and another candle closing back into that zone to the upside, stop below the last low wherever it will be, and target at the most recent high.

The selling tick volume pressure is already dead, I just need that last whoosh in price before entering, i.e total exhaustion on the sell side then enter with rest of mind. We will see how this goes.

Good morning and have a nice trading day.

Trade eventually played out but at the wrong time for me. I'm done with Bitcoin for the day. Couldn't enter based on the time factor not aligning properly from my end here.

geedot:
My long outlook on Bitcoin for during London session. I want price closing below that low on this timeframe, and another candle closing back into that zone to the upside, stop below the last low wherever it will be, and target at the most recent high.

The selling tick volume pressure is already dead, I just need that last whoosh in price before entering, i.e total exhaustion on the sell side then enter with rest of mind. We will see how this goes.

Good morning and have a nice trading day.

The price did flush down, but not down to where I'd anticipated. The gap in-between sessions has created a low volume environment, so I'd be expecting what New York session has in store which will be opening in an hour time.

Any decision on if to still hold unto the long bias would solely depend on what the first 30mins of New York session does.

My long outlook on Bitcoin for during London session. I want price closing below that low on this timeframe, and another candle closing back into that zone to the upside, stop below the last low wherever it will be, and target at the most recent high.

The selling tick volume pressure is already dead, I just need that last whoosh in price before entering, i.e total exhaustion on the sell side then enter with rest of mind. We will see how this goes.

Good morning and have a nice trading day.

This one Bitcoin has been mirroring Nasdaq/S&P500 move for weeks now, don't be surprised if they throw out one news to use as an excuse to kickstart the rally. Just imagine the resemblance on these two screenshots below today. The first one is Nasdaq while the second is Bitcoin.

Both gave an opportunity to long today based on my regular volume exhaustion on one side and trade the opposite side. I took nasdaq and left Bitcoin only to see it play out exactly like the Ndx.

armadeo:
This is deep.


The market does what the market wants to do I.e whoever is controlling the narrative. We're just along for the ride.

Exactly.

Most of the forex brokers don't put retailers money in the market, and usually be the counter party of the trades. Now, why and how do they have we retail traders thinking it's our longs and shorts that's moving market?

So many fugazzi in this business.

Have you ever wondered why when a price goes up or down, there's always a reason it happened if you look at the chart from technical analysis perspective, but if there's no technical backing, people refer to fundamentals to explain the reasons so and so happened.

All these are just to draw you in to make you feel this market can be predicted if you have enough knowledge. Then you start going through the rabbit hole, picking indicators after indicators, following news but still end up losing with little or nothing to show for it.

This market is an illusion, almost same news every week but with slightly different projections just to have enough reason to move price aggressively towards any direction they've chosen.

Go to your chart, there's this little window or should I call it glitch that occurs while they are moving money up and down, these trades are what I call "money in the bush" . Reason being that, it's a one way traffic, the price has no other choice at these areas than to go one way, you join and make your money and jump out before price gets to the next busy 50:50 zone, where price can go up or down.


Bottom line: You don't need anymore technical analysis and your fundamental won't make you money consistently either especially as a day trader.

Ojemedad:
A good trader don’t predict but react to what’s on the graph. He knows what he’s doing

Lol, even if he doesn't, he will pay with his equity after all. The bolded part is why I quoted you though, this word is usually misinterpreted.

Everyone; both losing and winning traders are all reacting to what's on the chart in front of them at that point in time, the difference is in the outcome.

If you win, they say you're reacting to what's on your chart, while if you lose, you're predicting. Isn't that hilarious.

Adasun:
Good afternoon @geedot...



I want to notify you that I have finished reading the recommended book for the second time boss.


Cc: geedot

Hello big man. Good evening, saw your mention since afternoon, but was busy stucking some trades and by the time I was done trading for the week, I'd forgotten about your mention.

Welldone on reading that book twice, that was a test of how badly you wanted this, and I really commend you on that.

There's little or nothing for me to add for now than direct you to the thread of one of my mentors. www.forexfactory.com/thread/963309-discussions-on-order-flowvolume?

Take your time to read the thread thoroughly, it's just 24 pages long.

I hope you're good at basic naked chart trading already? Market structure? Short/Long intra-day traps? These simplifies everything.

It's all good though, I'm ready to walk this walk with you. Let me know when you're done with this thread I referenced to you as well.

MrNovo:
That's most likely an account under management. It's not one individuals money. Also important to note that the trade doesn't get liquidated immediately as such accounts use cross margin and only utilise around 30% of total funds in their wallet for trades allowing the backup fund to automatically adjust their liquidation point

Thanks so much for the lucid explanation.

doyin01:
He set his liquidation point at $85,300 when he placed the trade. ,and Bitcoin have touched that point and even passed it ..so he will definitely get liquidated ..the only thing that will help him avoid that liquidation is If he closed the trade before this evening..

Even if he got liquidated or stopped out, that amount probable isn't that huge for such an individual. And he's probably made way more than that, that even if he lost this, it's just like you and I losing 2% of our equity.

That tight stop shows he's probably scalping and not some long term traders. That makes it very likely he might have closed out a huge chunk of that position before this upward wave happened.

All in all, the 320M is like $320 to some people in the trading world. Reminds me of one of my early days mentor, man had 100mills as deposit balance and had grown it to 238m. He usually make 1million upwards every fvkcing trading day, that we with our meagre less than $1k in trading account couldn't believe our eyes when he shared his account balance screenshot one day.

And this was back then in 2020 during covid era, you can imagine how much he'd be working with at the moment.

geedot:
It's going to go down to that 74k, I don't even believe the 73k-70k former resistance likely to turn support will be strong enough to hold the fall.
The next stop is the 66-64k zone, this looks more feasible to hold than that of the 73k area.

The one I will be more interested in is the 55-51k, of course price might not get there, but I'm certain price can't blow past there too much before it reverses to the upside.

Bitcoin is currently on free fall, it has turned former support to resistance, the next target now is the 70k down to 50k. Don't be caught trying to catch this falling knife. Trade safe brother.

I remember making this post on March 10th, scrolling through insta just now and saw this screenshot that was posted 19hours ago on my followers story.

If some people out there are opening such a large position with liquidation point that tight, one needs to think twice before trying to go the opposite way.

tweakstar:
Your informed opinion, do you think the bull is run over?

I don't know too much about crypto cycle, I'm just speaking from TA perspective. I only said that based on current market condition, it could change few days time or even few weeks.

Valwezzy:
No more $74k? I’m asking because I’d love to start DCAing from $75k - $74k

It's going to go down to that 74k, I don't even believe the 73k-70k former resistance likely to turn support will be strong enough to hold the fall.
The next stop is the 66-64k zone, this looks more feasible to hold than that of the 73k area.

The one I will be more interested in is the 55-51k, of course price might not get there, but I'm certain price can't blow past there too much before it reverses to the upside.

Bitcoin is currently on free fall, it has turned former support to resistance, the next target now is the 70k down to 50k. Don't be caught trying to catch this falling knife. Trade safe brother.

Meerahbel:
Make these 10 better financial management choices, and things will improve for you:

7. Avoid Forex trading, and Cryptocurrency trading, unless you have mastered the game in it.

If you avoid trading, how are you going to master what you're avoiding? . It's like saying; don't near the swimming pool unless you've mastered swimming.

dauntless15:
but I no agree with your ideology, I make money from surveys aside crypto and I mentor few people does that mean I'm fake or I'm collecting people's money because what I'm doing isn't working? Mentoring is time consuming, no be everything go be free and most times people don't appreciate free things.

You have to understand the angle I'm coming from. If 8-9 times out of 10, it is fake, I don't count the 1 time it's real. Until proven otherwise, I consider it fake. I have mentors that are extremely good, and none of them asked for money because you can't be talking to me about potential of making millions and you're charging me a meagre $100-200. It's b.ullcr.ap.

If you want to charge for your knowledge, go ahead, but don't come here to castigate Habby when you're also almost doing the same thing as he does[charging broke students].

DieRich5:
those habby guys hardly do day trades.......dem have alot of money so dem normally stay on trade for long mostly on spot or very low leverage like X3 to X5 with mad money

I laugh people wey think those guy makes money on trade now, dem have many investment opportunities that give dem money........... just like Mr banks and mayer of ekiti

Stop defending what you have little or no knowledge about. He's a day trader that enter and exits trades every single day.

Nigeria is a country where people worship money and rich people irrespective of how the wealth is gotten, so I won't be surprised seeing people come to his defense despite all his shortcomings.