₦airaland Forum

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (May 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Gold was quite choppy in the first three weeks of April 2016, characterized by short-term upswings and downswings, all in the context of an uptrend. In the last week of April, Gold experienced a sustained trending movement. Price moved upwards by 6500 pips last week alone, breaking one resistance level after another. Last month, price closed at 1292.80, on a strong bullish note. The bullish movement is supposed to continue in this month of May, taking price towards the resistance levels at 1300.00, 1350.00 and 1400.00. Of course there would be transitory dips along the way, but these should be approached as opportunities to go long at better prices.


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Unlike Gold, which moved unpredictably in the first half of April, Silver moved upwards persistently in April, reaching a low of 14.7550 and a high of 17.9300. This was serious bullish movement of about 3000 pips in April, and there is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in 4-hour and daily charts. Last month, price closed above the support level at 17.7000, and it would go upwards from there, reaching the resistance levels at 18.0000, 18.5000 and 19.0000 within the month of May. Any pullbacks witnessed in this market should be taken as being transient, for bulls would come in to push price higher, forming higher lows and higher highs in the market.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 2 - 6, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The EURUSD moved upwards 230 pips last week – an action that has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The resistance line at 1.1450 has been tested and it would be breached to the upside, as price targets other resistance lines at 1.1500 and 1.1550. However, the month of May 2016 would be challenging for bulls because EUR would be weak in some cases. There is an exception of course, like EURAUD, because AUD would be weak against other currencies in May.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair merely went in the opposite direction to EURUSD. Price dropped 220 pips and later closed below the resistance level at 0.9600. There is now a bearish outlook on the market and further southwards movement is possible this week, Bears might push the pair towards the support lines at 0.9550 and 0.9500. There cannot be a reversal of this bearish movement unless there is a serious weakness in EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD was able to rally gradually last week, reaching the distribution territory at 1.4650. Bulls fought desperately at the distribution territory at 1.4600; only to meet another strong opposition at the distribution territory at 1.4650. Bulls should be able to overcome the opposition at this distribution territory, owing to the bullish outlook on GBPUSD (and most other GBP pairs like GBPAUD and GBPNZD) for the month of May 2016. Price would move up further by 200 pips this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument went sideways from Monday to Wednesday, and then dropped like a stone on Thursday. Price dropped by 500 pips, closing below the supply level at 106.50. There has been a bearish signal in the market, including other JPY pairs. This bearish movement is supposed to continue this week as price action is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Short-term rallies can be taken as short-selling opportunities.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Just as it was mentioned in the last forecast, EURJPY cross first trudged upwards from April 25 to 27, and then plummeted. The drop was significant enough to overturn the recent bullish gains, causing a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market. Price has gone below the supply zones at 124.00, 123.00 and 122.00, reaching out for the demand zones beneath them. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of May. Therefore, long trades do not make sense here until there is a strong bullish reversal in the market: something that may take place before the end of May.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." – Dr. Alexander Elder

Source: www.tallinex.com

Toni Hansen: An Indispensable Sage of the Markets

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 7

“Of all of the lies my traders tell themselves, the one that shows up the most frequently is “I don’t think I can do this.” – Louise Bedford

Name: Toni Hansen
Nationality: American
Occupation: Full-time trader and mentor
Website: Tonihansen.com

ADRRESING THE TOUGHEST TRADING QUESTIONS
A respected technical analyst and full-time trader with decent profits from weak and strong markets, Toni started her career as an equity swing trader, after which she mastered other types of financial markets. She has crafted ways to tackle stocks, futures, options, ETFs and Forex, surviving uptrend, downtrend and equilibrium phases in the markets.

She’s spoken at many trade shows and expos. She’s contributed to Real Money Pro, CME Group, Active Trader, Money Show, Trading View, etc.

Toni has always traded and coached many professionals in various fields of financial industry, including other people outside the financial industry. She quotes other great traders in her writings.

Please check her website. Tonihansen.com is rich with very helpful trading articles, insights, lessons and courses, which can help beginner, professional and advanced traders. For example, you can get a one-stop shop for in-depth lessons on introduction to technical analysis, candlestick charting, trends, indicators, fear and greed, money management, advanced courses on trends, various ways of determining resistance and support, Fibonacci levels, market reversals, selecting your trading style, and so on.

Giving answers that work, Toni has also made bold attempts to address the toughest questions in trading, such as:

Which type of market analysis will I employ?
Which markets should I focus on?
Which strategies should I use for trading?
Which time frame should be my primary focus? Etc.

What You Need to Know:
In order to have a taste of insightful tips and lessons Toni has to offer traders, please read the article below. The article was taken from her website and the link is located at: Tonihansen.com/trading-lessons.html#traits

8 Traits of a Successful Trader
The market is an ever-changing entity, each day presenting us with different and unique scenarios with no two days every the same. Nevertheless, the market is more or less a reflection of people's ideas and attitudes and while it is also true that no two people are alike, each and every one of us has something in common with someone else, whether it’s the way we get out of bed in the morning or the foods we prefer to eat. Additionally, we tend to repeat actions, such as preferring to brush our teeth at a certain time of day or making sure we try to catch the Thursday night prime time television shows. No matter which angle you look at it from, humans are creatures of habit and this tendency gets reflected in a security’s price movement. It's what makes technical analysis a reliable and profitable method for analyzing the market.

Unfortunately, technical analysis is not always cut and dry. The same core pattern does not work the same way in every market environment. For instance, one of the setups I often look for on a daily chart is a 3-5 day pullback in an uptrending stock for buying opportunities. Where newer traders tend to get in trouble, however, is taking such a setup to mean that every time an uptrending stock pulls back 3-5 days and then breaks the previous day's highs that it means they should buy it. In reality, there are always exceptions and its learning what these are that can be the dividing line between those traders who are successful and those who fail. In this example, how a security pulls back in a primary uptrend, as well as overall market conditions, will greatly influence whether taking such a pullback as a long is really worth the risk to reward. In some cases it is not.

The ability to adjust to changing market circumstances is just one of the traits of a successful trader. In truth though, there are quite a few. Over the years I’ve mentored quite a few traders. Many succeeded, but many of the traders I have spoken with over the years have failed. I have observed a number of traits which are present in those who succeed. Some of the top traits of successful traders are as follows:

1. Staying Neutral
You're probably wondering away just what do I mean by “staying neutral.” When you are chatting with your trading buddies online or reading a message board and all you hear are how the market maker or specialist is out to get them, or how one minute they are a market god and the next they have what is certifiably the worst luck in the entire world, then you are dealing with a trader that is NOT staying neutral! They are letting each trade or each trading day rule their emotions and this pressure builds upon itself, making it very difficult to succeed.

The professionals don't let the day to day oscillations in their accounts faze them. The results of one day of trading, or even a few weeks or a month are not as important to them as the average over time. Among most of the professional traders I know, you cannot tell by their mere appearance whether or not they had a great day in the market or if they lost. Sure, they may tell you one way or the other.

We are not robots devoid of all emotion after all, but when we leave the market for the day after a difficult session, we are able to disassociate it from the rest of the world and don’t spend the rest of the day complaining or moping around the house thinking that entire world must be out to get us. Similarly, on a great day, we do not call up every person we can think of and tell them how we rule the market universe. Extreme emotional responses either way will often lead to greater difficulty in the market since emotions take over from reason and can often override it, making it difficult to remain objective.

2. Have business Plan
Most successful traders also have a business plan. As in any other profession, it’s important to know what it entails in order to succeed. As in any business, this consists of a set of rules or guidelines to help keep the trader on track and from making decisions purely on a whim.

Would you open a restaurant without a plan? No, or at least I really hope that you wouldn’t! A new restaurant owner must take into account the type of cuisine they wish to serve, the décor of the restaurant, the hours of operation, to whom they are catering as clientele, etc.

As in the restaurant business, traders must also have a business plan. A partial list of the questions you should be asking yourself and including in your trading plan are as follows:

How must time will you spend study and trading?
What techniques and strategies you will focus on?
What are the expenses involved in becoming a trader?
What is your maximum loss limit, not only per position, but on your account as a whole?
What are your objectives?
etc...

The more comprehensive your plan is, the better. You can always go back and change it, modifying it to suit your development as a trader. I find that it is very helpful, for instance, to go back and read over my techniques and goals whenever I am in a slump and my progress has stalled. It helps me maintain the right frame of mind so that I can push forward.

3. Keep a Journal
One of the first questions I ask any of my new clients is whether or not they have a trading journal, and if you, what does it consist of.

Most traders don’t even have a journal. Those that do have one typically keep it in a spreadsheet format. This offers very few insights into a trader’s personal style and strengths and weaknesses. Some things to consider when developing a trading journal are:

What techniques were used in locating the position?
Did you follow your entry, stop and exit criteria?
What pros and cons did the setup have?
What, if anything could you have done better and what are you most proud of?

It is also important to print out a chart of your trade. Mark both the entry and exit on the chart. If necessary, print it out on several time frames to show the details of the position.

4. Focus on Several Techniques that Work Well
Let’s take a minute to look at a typical college student. What kind of person majors in general studies? Unless they go on to focus on a specific occupation in graduate school or law school, etc., well-paying jobs will be hard to find for most of these students upon graduation. Instead, for those who focus their studies in one field, and more specially, one subdivision of that field, demand for their skills will be much higher. If you focus on just a few techniques, it allows you to really become an expert on the technique you are using. Great traders have several strategies that are their bread and butter plays and they will focus on them for as long as the market conditions favor them.

Remember: The jack of all trades and master of none is usually a low-paid, unskilled worker.

5. Being a Great Money Manager
Great traders are also great risk managers. They respect the risks they are taking and on each trade they risk a small amount of capital. Usually this is 1/4% to 1% per position (and no more than 2%). The idea is that you can't trade tomorrow if you blow out today and if you can't trade you won't be a great trader, now will you?

Great traders protect their accounts. It's their baby. Each position is so small they don't really care what happens with it. It's just a nick... win, lose, or draw. So, if they have a 200K account and are risking 1/4% on each trade, if they take a stop they are out $500. That's a very small amount of money compared to the account. They can take a couple of hits and still be in the game.

6. Being Comfortable with Risk and Uncertainty
The sixth trait of great traders is that they are comfortable with risk. Let's face it, trading is certainly risky and if you are afraid of the risk you won't last. If you are afraid you will lose money, then I can say with near-certainty that you will.

Great traders are comfortable trading a pattern that is not a 100% sure-thing, because there simply is no such thing. Many new traders have a terrible time with this: the uncertainty of a trade, but you must overcome it. It is very easy to allow yourself to become frozen with fear over the risks and uncertainties of trading. Great traders get beyond it.

7. Accepting Personal Responsibility
Great traders accept personal responsibility for everything they do, even to an extreme. If I loan you $100 and you never pay me back, then yes, perhaps you are not a very honorable person, but I also made a poor choice to lend you the money in the first place. I made that choice, however, and I must accept personal responsibility for that action.

The same concept applies to trading. Many traders, lacking the expertise and confidence to make all their own decisions to begin with, will rely upon others for advice. The input may come from CNBC or it may come from a newsletter service or trading chatroom or message board. It doesn’t matter where you get the original idea from, it is still up to you to implement it or not and you have the due diligence to stand behind your decisions and make them your own, whether they succeed or fail.

8. Using Risk Capital to Trade
Finally, great traders use risk capital. This should be obvious. They trade with money they can afford to lose. It is very difficult to trade well if you are worrying about paying your mortgage or putting food on the table. I’ve also seen a number of traders over the years take out equity loans to open a trading account. You are supposed to be limiting your risk and outside stressors, not adding to them if you wish to succeed. If you think you can be one of the exceptions, then you should really think again!

Trading with risk capital frees up your mind. It lets you trade and not worry about every little stop you have. You can just focus on trading correctly instead of trying to force yourself to meet certain financial needs. They say scared money never wins. Well, I have yet to see a person who has no other source of income or savings make a living off their $5,000 trading account.

Many of these traits may take a bit of time to acquire. Overcoming the fear of loss, for instance, haunts many, but by focusing upon these traits and characteristics, my hope is that you may model your own frame of mind to those who have come before you and have made the leap to a successful and long-lasting career in the markets. It is said that the majority of successful people in the world became such by following in the footsteps of others, their mentors. Even if you do not have one specific person in mind, familiarizing oneself with the traits of those whom have succeeded before you is a great place to begin!

Conclusion: Many traders have dreams but they don’t act on those dreams. Even when they act, it’s usually one or two attempts, for they give up quickly as soon as they run into difficulties. As far as they’re concerned, there’s nothing like persistence. They think successful traders are successful only because they’re lucky to have easy methods of profitability. NO. Ask successful traders, and they’ll tell you how long or how many years it takes them to achieve consistency in the markets. They’re not luckier than you: they’re only more persistent than you.

This piece is ended with a quote from Toni:

“Knowledge is power. This is as true in trading as any other area of life. Those who don’t know will eventually give their money to those who do know. In this industry we have 90% of the money going to 10% of the players. Do you want to be part of that 10%?”


Source: www.tallinex.com

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Immortal Jellyfish: The Only Known Species Known to Live Forever

While the humans have been looking for the elixir of life throughout every period of history, it appears that there is one species of jellyfish that are actually immortal. Turritopsis nutricula, or sometimes – Turritopsis dohrnii, is able to transform its cells from mature state back to immaturity, in other words – back to youth. The medusa leads a regular cycle of life, but after maturing and mating, it reverts back to its initial state – a polyp colony. The process is referred to as “transdifferentiation”, and it basically makes the jellyfish unable to die.

The bell-shaped immortal jellyfish measures up to a maximum of bout 4.5 millimeters (0.18 in) and is about the same in its length and width. Originating in the Caribbean, it has now spread worldwide, and the discovery of its unique ability has heated up many discussions among the scientists. Some claim that their mystery is soon to be solved and applied to humans, while others only expect it to improve the quality of life at our final stages. Either way, knowing that something out there goes back and forth from being young to old to young again, blows your mind!

Source: http://www.boredpanda.com/turritopsis-nutricula-immortal-jellyfish/

Neteller here: www..com.ng

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (April 28 – May 20, 2016)

USDJPY = Sell

AUDJPY = Sell

CADJPY = Sell

CHFJPY = Sell

EURJPY = Sell

GBPJPY = Sell

NZDJPY = Sell

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 25 - 29, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair was bearish last week. Bulls tried to push price upwards. But as a result of severe opposition from bears, price came down on Friday, following the volatility that occurred on Thursday. There is a “sell” signal in the market, and it may probably go further downwards this week, reaching the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150. Price might even go below these targets, and the “sell” signal would never be invalidated until the resistance line at 1.1400 is overcome.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The current bullish movement on this pair started on Wednesday, April 20, 2016. This has led to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is likely that price would continue its bullish movement this week, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. A movement beyond these resistance levels is even possible: though there is one obstacle in the way of USDCHF, and that is an expected strength in CHF before the end of this week. Please watch CHF pairs.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was mentioned last week, GBP was able to rally against certain majors, which is visible on some crosses like GBPNZD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, EURGBP, etc. GBPUSD also was bullish last week in spite of desperate struggles of bears against it. From the accumulation territory at 1.4150 the price trended upwards, with some pullbacks on the way, reached the distribution territory at 1.4450, before the market closed on a slight retracement. Price moved upwards by roughly 300 pips last week; plus further northward movement is expected this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY went upwards by 370 pips last week. At the beginning of last week, price gapped down slightly into the demand level at 108.00, and since then a rally started gradually (from Monday to Thursday). That rally gained momentum on Friday, April 22, 2016, and this has resulted in an invalidation of the recent bearish outlook on the market. The bias is now bullish and further northward movement of at least, 150 pips, is expected this week. One thing must be noted: There is also a possibility of a strong bearish movement on USDJPY (and of course, other JPY pairs) before the end of this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument also went bullish last week by 360 pips, after price ran into a solid demand zone at 122.00 at the beginning of last week. On Friday, price closed above the demand zone at 125.00, now very close to the supply zone at 125.50. This has rendered the recent bearish outlook on the market useless. The market would continue moving north this week, since there is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but that does not rule out probability00 of a pullback before the end of this month.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Markets are a reflection of rational human behavior — whether 5min or monthly chart. This fractal nature of markets is due to humans’ psychological make-up. Until we evolve into a new species, price action will always be the same.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

Source: www.tallinex.com

Meet the Best Traders in the World

“Although I’ve witnessed uncountable demo contests the world over, these are the most impressive results I’ve ever seen, despite the vagaries of the markets.” – Analyst75

Honestly, my plan for this week was to post an article about Alan Howard, a self-made billionaire trader, in our Master Traders series. Nonetheless, I’d to change my mind and post what you’re reading today, as a result of outstanding results of a just concluded demo contest.

I don’t like to sound like promoting anyone or any firm, but doubting Thomases need to see this. Perhaps they’d admit that trading success is attainable.

A Trading Firm Announces a Demo Contest
In early March 2016, I unexpectedly came across this announcement:

“Get ready to take part in something new... something different! The starting clock is counting down to the first “(company name withheld)” trading competition of 2016... and the prizes are huge!

This is a demo-trading contest because we wanted anyone and everyone to take part... we just decided to make things more interesting by offering bigger prizes than most live-trading competitions. So... if you have ever thought of taking part in a trading competition, then this is the competition to take part in!

Competition entrants will go head-to-head - each trading a $2,500 micro account with 1:400 leverage. There are no restrictions - competitors are free to trade any strategy... whether manual, automated, or both.

Come early, or come late - you will be able to dive in and join the fun right up until April 15th.”

The competition started in March 13, 2016 and ended on the day mentioned in the preceding paragraph. There are no trading/withdrawal restrictions on prize monies.

When a Broker Doesn’t Impose Restrictions
Let’s be frank here, the kind of broker you use really matters in your trading success. It’s one of the big factors in your profitability as a trader. I hate FIFO rules. I hate restrictions on strategies, like hedging, automation, etc.

I like a broker that doesn’t interfere with trading strategies and styles, no matter what they’re. I like brokers that don’t trade against me or manipulate my traders. I like brokers that don’t impose restrictions on me. Let me use any trading styles I like and be responsible for the outcome. Professional traders thrive when they’re uninhibited by unfair restrictions. I saw the most impressive results in my life because a trading firm doesn’t impose any restrictions on traders/competitors.

As far as the trading firm which organized the contest is concerned, their demo accounts are almost similar to live accounts. You receive transactions alerts into your inbox as if you were using live accounts.

The Number One Contestant – A Mad Trader
The contest started, and at the end of the first week, the number one guy had turned 2,500 USD to $63,000 USD. By Thursday of the second week of the contest duration, his equity stood at 106,000 USD. On the following day (Friday), his equity reached 109,000 USD; but he suffered a drawdown that day. His equity dropped to 73,000 USD.

I told my boss in the office: “This guy is an exceptionally good trader. Even if the contest ends now, he’s already made an impressive result by turning 2,500 USD to 73,000 USD just in two weeks.”

My boss nodded in agreement.

In the third week of the contest, the top guy raised his equity from 73,000 USD to 79,000 USD. At the end of the third week, the equity stood at 136,000 USD. In the last week, he raised the equity to 666,000 USD.

On April 14, in the afternoon, I showed the result to my boss. The guy’s equity was already 695,000 USD. Three hours later, I was visiting a friend of mine when I checked the contest results, the guy’s equity was then 1,080,000 USD!

I called my boss on phone to inform him. He was too surprised. Early on Friday – the day the contest was to finish – the guy’s equity had been turned to 1,350,000 USD. At the end of the contest, his closed balance was 1,433,480 USD.

Here is more info about the guy’s results:

Contestant name: A.D.
Position: 1st
Opening balance: 2,500 USD
Volume traded: 34,230.80 lots
Number of trades: 316 trades
Final balance 1,433,480 USD
Gains: 57,239.20%
Contest duration: 4 weeks
Prize money: 5,000 USD

The contestant who came second turned 2,500 USD into 741,365 (29,554.60%). The contestant who came third turned 2,500 USD into 713,076 (28,423.04%). All within 4 weeks. I’ll not mention clean results of many other traders in that contest.

Is This Realistic?
Another popular broker in Europe just finished their demo contest on April 15, 2016; the duration was like that of demo contest detailed here and the person taking the highest position made only 331.78% profits in 4 weeks (though nearly 2500 people registered for the contest).

I can tell you that 331.78% in 4 weeks is an impressive return. But who can argue with 57,239.20% in 4 weeks? It means you could’ve gained at least 57,200 USD in 4 weeks if you invested only 100 USD and got that kind of results in terms of percentage!

Is this realistic? Yes and No.

Yes, because the results are true, and because the trading firm involved allows trading conditions on virtual accounts to be exactly similar to those of live accounts.

No, because contestants used excessive leveraging, which might be too pernicious when trading on real accounts. But I also believe that they would’ve made impressively decent profits even when they risked 1% per trade, using risk control features, and compounding their accounts for one year.

As a professional trader myself, I personally witnessed the vagaries of the markets during the whole contest duration. I witnessed fake-outs, strong trending movements, short-squeezes, false breakouts, reversals, traps, equilibrium phases, random volatility etc. Regardless of these random and unpredictable behavior of the markets, those awesome traders made astounding profits.

Who Is That Mad Genius?
As I said earlier, I’m not advertising anything here. I don’t know the mad genius in person, but I’m a witness to his gargantuan results. I just wanted readers to know that there are talented traders on this planet. I suspect those traders used automated or semi-automated strategies.

The firm that organized the contest might try to interview the top trader or the top three or the top five. I don’t know whether this would be done, but I can guarantee you that if the top trader (that mad guy) is interviewed, the interview would be included in one of my future articles; the Master Traders series.

Conclusion: There are many, many traders who can speculate successfully. If you’re one of those doubting Thomases who think success is impossible in the markets, this article was written to prove you wrong. Can you now see that, while there are losing traders, there are also hugely successful traders? Do you want to be like them? You can be like them if you really want to!

To be candid, I’d no intention of using any link to prove my point, owing to the fact that I don’t want to appear like promoting anything. On the other side, if I don’t show any links, readers who easily come in and say: “You know that blogger/forumer is a smart liar.” I don’t want to claim something that got no proof. It’s sad that many readers wouldn’t believe me if I didn’t make any reference. Nevertheless, if you were curious enough, you might want to see the proof here: www.tallinex.com/leaderboard

As from next week, I’ll resume posting my usual articles. This article is ended with the quote below:

“People lose money for various reasons, mostly they are not ready to compete against the best, it is like a five year old playing basketball against a seven footer, people think it is a even playing field, it is not, MOST are BAIT and the few are WHALES, Whale doesn't have to attack any of the bait, whale just opens his mouth and swims. Some of the brightest people come to the markets thinking their brain will overcome experience, I certainly can't bend microwaves, but I know the probabilities of swing distance of ES in first hour of ES. And there are differences when it comes to bending microwaves, YOU are working for someone and I work for myself.” – Handle123 (Source: Elitetrader.com)


Source: www.tallinex.com

“When I got home that night as my wife served dinner, I held her hand and said, I’ve got something to tell you. She sat down and ate quietly. Again I observed the hurt in her eyes.

Suddenly I didn’t know how to open my mouth. But I had to let her know what I was thinking. I want a divorce. I raised the topic calmly. She didn’t seem to be annoyed by my words, instead she asked me softly, why?

I avoided her question. This made her angry. She threw away the chopsticks and shouted at me, you are not a man! That night, we didn’t talk to each other. She was weeping. I knew she wanted to find out what had happened to our marriage. But I could hardly give her a satisfactory answer; she had lost my heart to Jane. I didn’t love her anymore. I just pitied her!

With a deep sense of guilt, I drafted a divorce agreement which stated that she could own our house, our car, and 30% stake of my company. She glanced at it and then tore it into pieces. The woman who had spent ten years of her life with me had become a stranger. I felt sorry for her wasted time, resources and energy but I could not take back what I had said for I loved Jane so dearly. Finally she cried loudly in front of me, which was what I had expected to see. To me her cry was actually a kind of release. The idea of divorce which had obsessed me for several weeks seemed to be firmer and clearer now.

The next day, I came back home very late and found her writing something at the table. I didn’t have supper but went straight to sleep and fell asleep very fast because I was tired after an eventful day with Jane. When I woke up, she was still there at the table writing. I just did not care so I turned over and was asleep again.

In the morning she presented her divorce conditions: she didn’t want anything from me, but needed a month’s notice before the divorce. She requested that in that one month we both struggle to live as normal a life as possible. Her reasons were simple: our son had his exams in a month’s time and she didn’t want to disrupt him with our broken marriage.

This was agreeable to me. But she had something more, she asked me to recall how I had carried her into out bridal room on our wedding day. She requested that every day for the month’s duration I carry her out of our bedroom to the front door ever morning. I thought she was going crazy. Just to make our last days together bearable I accepted her odd request.

I told Jane about my wife’s divorce conditions. . She laughed loudly and thought it was absurd. No matter what tricks she applies, she has to face the divorce, she said scornfully.

My wife and I hadn’t had any body contact since my divorce intention was explicitly expressed. So when I carried her out on the first day, we both appeared clumsy. Our son clapped behind us, daddy is holding mommy in his arms. His words brought me a sense of pain. From the bedroom to the sitting room, then to the door, I walked over ten meters with her in my arms. She closed her eyes and said softly; don’t tell our son about the divorce. I nodded, feeling somewhat upset. I put her down outside the door. She went to wait for the bus to work. I drove alone to the office.

On the second day, both of us acted much more easily. She leaned on my chest. I could smell the fragrance of her blouse. I realized that I hadn’t looked at this woman carefully for a long time. I realized she was not young any more. There were fine wrinkles on her face, her hair was graying! Our marriage had taken its toll on her. For a minute I wondered what I had done to her.

On the fourth day, when I lifted her up, I felt a sense of intimacy returning. This was the woman who had given ten years of her life to me. On the fifth and sixth day, I realized that our sense of intimacy was growing again. I didn’t tell Jane about this. It became easier to carry her as the month slipped by. Perhaps the everyday workout made me stronger.

She was choosing what to wear one morning. She tried on quite a few dresses but could not find a suitable one. Then she sighed, all my dresses have grown bigger. I suddenly realized that she had grown so thin, that was the reason why I could carry her more easily.

Suddenly it hit me… she had buried so much pain and bitterness in her heart. Subconsciously I reached out and touched her head.

Our son came in at the moment and said, Dad, it’s time to carry mom out. To him, seeing his father carrying his mother out had become an essential part of his life. My wife gestured to our son to come closer and hugged him tightly. I turned my face away because I was afraid I might change my mind at this last minute. I then held her in my arms, walking from the bedroom, through the sitting room, to the hallway. Her hand surrounded my neck softly and naturally. I held her body tightly; it was just like our wedding day.

But her much lighter weight made me sad. On the last day, when I held her in my arms I could hardly move a step. Our son had gone to school. I held her tightly and said, I hadn’t noticed that our life lacked intimacy. I drove to office…. jumped out of the car swiftly without locking the door. I was afraid any delay would make me change my mind…I walked upstairs. Jane opened the door and I said to her, Sorry, Jane, I do not want the divorce anymore.

She looked at me, astonished, and then touched my forehead. Do you have a fever? She said. I moved her hand off my head. Sorry, Jane, I said, I won’t divorce. My marriage life was boring probably because she and I didn’t value the details of our lives, not because we didn’t love each other anymore. Now I realize that since I carried her into my home on our wedding day I am supposed to hold her until death do us apart. Jane seemed to suddenly wake up. She gave me a loud slap and then slammed the door and burst into tears. I walked downstairs and drove away. At the floral shop on the way, I ordered a bouquet of flowers for my wife. The salesgirl asked me what to write on the card. I smiled and wrote, I’ll carry you out every morning until death do us apart.
That evening I arrived home, flowers in my hands, a smile on my face, I run up stairs, only to find my wife in the bed -dead. My wife had been fighting CANCER for months and I was so busy with Jane to even notice. She knew that she would die soon and she wanted to save me from the whatever negative reaction from our son, in case we push through with the divorce.— At least, in the eyes of our son—- I’m a loving husband….

The small details of your lives are what really matter in a relationship. It is not the mansion, the car, property, the money in the bank. These create an environment conducive for happiness but cannot give happiness in themselves.
So find time to be your spouse’s friend and do those little things for each other that build intimacy. Do have a real happy marriage!

If you don’t share this, nothing will happen to you.
If you do, you just might save a marriage. Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.
♥
Remember love is the richest of all treasures. Without it there is nothing; and with it there is everything. Love never perishes , even if the bones of a lover are ground fine like powder. Just as the perfume of sandalwood does not leave it, even if it is completely ground up, similarly the basis of love is the soul, and it is indestructible and therefore eternal. Beauty can be destroyed , but not love.



Source: https://www./married-you-should-read-robert-whitman-lpc-ma-caciii?trk=eml-b2_content_ecosystem_digest-recommended_articles-67-null&midToken=AQF1ZKDGT9_qmg&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=0oBxFt8yjQeTc1


Neteller here: www..com.ng

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 18 - 22, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
EURUSD traded lower last week, testing the support line at 1.1250, to close at 1.1282 on Friday. The movement of the price has essentially been sideways since the beginning of April and there is no significant directional journey till now. However, there is a possibility that bulls would effect a rally this week, which might enable price to reach the resistance lines at 1.1350, 1.1400 and 1.1450. In addition, EUR pairs could be seen strengthening against other majors.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved upwards last week, in the context of a downtrend. Price tested the support level at 0.9500 and later rose above the support level 0.9650, which means the downtrend is currently being threatened. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9750 would mean the end of the downtrend, but that would probably not happen. The outlook on USD for this week is bearish, and as such, further southward movement could be witnessed before the end of the week, which could cause price to reach the support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500. This could cause the existing downtrend to be strengthened eventually.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
The GBPUSD was volatile throughout last week, with neither bulls nor bears having upper hands. There should be a directional movement this week, which would most probably be in favor of bulls. This means the market could rally this week, reaching the distribution territories at 1.4300, 1.4350 and 1.4400. The accumulation territories at 1.4100 and 1.4050 may do a good job in thwarting bearish attempts this week. Some GBP pairs might also rally, like GBPCAD.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
From April 11 to 14, this currency trading instrument trended upwards by 190 pips. On April 15, price got corrected lower, in conjunction with the existing bearish bias. This means the rally that was seen between April 11 and 14 was a mere short-term rally in the context of a downtrend. Further bearish movement is expected this week, which might make price go down by at least 150 pips. Any rallies seen this week should be taken as short-selling opportunities.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross, which dropped steeply in the first week of this month, was caught in an equilibrium phase last week. Price would go out of the equilibrium phase this week, and most likely go further southward, owing to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price closed below the supply zone at 123.00 on Friday. In case price breaks out to the south, the demand zones at 122.00 and 121.50 might be tested. There cannot be a threat to the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern unless the supply zone at 126.00 is overcome.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Support and resistance levels are generally more porous in volatile markets. Common sense suggests that, in these conditions, you should give the trade more room.” - Lee Bohl

Source: www.tallinex.com

The Markets Aren’t to Blame

“In tutoring others, I realized that most of the people attempting to trade had no idea what the markets were about, and no idea of what they were doing.” – Joe Ross

Helping People Is Almost Impossible
Many people disturb trading pros, begging for help in their trading. They want to learn good trading approaches or principles, which can turn things around for them. You’ll feel their plausible sincerity when they desperate call pros for help. But when the pros offer to help them, giving them useful tips and strategies, you’ll discover that they don’t follow the pros advice.

A Latin American guy was disturbing a pro for a long time (who happened to be his acquaintance), asking for assistance. Later the pro arranged how they’d meet and showed him everything as he himself was doing it, including MM recommendations. To his surprise, the pro later found out that the way the guy traded afterwards was quite contrary to the advice he was given. It was a pure suicide trading. Needless to say, the guy crashed his account and quit trading finally.

In an African country, a newbie travelled to take instruction on how to use a pro’s strategy after hearing that the pro was making money with the strategy. The pro was kind enough to explain everything to him free, but he advised him to first try it on demo to see whether the strategy fit his psychology. On the contrary, the newbie applied the strategy to his live account directly.

In one Asian country, a certain young man who’d been struggling with the market for years later came across a winning trader who offered to help him for free. The winning trader showed him the strategy he was using, plus how to control risk with it. A few weeks later, the winning trader found out that the young man was using too high lot sizes and no stops; contrary to the advice he was given. The winning trader called him on phone, warning him against his dangerous trading style, but the young man refused to change. He’d been lucky so far… Nonetheless, he’d soon be found out in crazy market conditions.

A European bought a positive expectancy strategy but failed to use it as recommended. Someone from North America paid a huge amount to a trading coach, but later he did things that were contrary to what the coach taught him.

In Oceania, a lady was coached via the Internet, but later she simply traded in a manner that was quite contrary to how she was coached.

When people know they’ll still do what they’ll do, why do they seek help in the first place? The answer is simple. Majority of struggling traders are difficult to help.

So let people trade according to their beliefs and psychology and face the positive (or negative) results of their actions, taking responsibility for that. But the truth remains that the market can’t be blamed. Blaming the market is like running after the wind, for it’ll do what it’ll do. The market behaves according to its nature without having you in mind.

In spite of this, you can still achieve success in the markets if you really want it.

Why People Discourage Others from Trading
When people tell you that you can’t do something, what they’re really telling you is that they think you can’t do it because they can’t do it. People aren’t going to do something, and they’d like to tell you the reasons you shouldn’t do it either.

If I was hopeless at math, does that mean others can’t master it? If someone fails at programming, does it mean others can’t do it? If you failed at any challenging endeavor, does that mean others will fail if they try the same thing?

I remember a tale from “Baro-san” (of Elitetrader):

Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine but was unable to, although he leaped with all his strength. As he went away, the fox remarked 'Oh, you aren't even ripe yet! I don't need any sour grapes.' People who speak disparagingly of things that they cannot attain would do well to apply this story to themselves.

Those who lose with fundamental analysis say it’s worthless. Those who fail with technical analysis declare it sucks. They can’t do it, and they think nobody can do it. Since I can’t pass an exam so that exam is useless. I find multilevel marketing difficult, and so, it’s impossible to excel at it. I can’t make money from Forex – therefore Forex doesn’t work.

When people fail at something, they develop hatred for it. They look at their screen and say, “this game is a waste of time.” They can’t stand playing games for profits in an uncertain world; and as a result, they can’t put in the necessary effort, doggedness and resources into achieving trading mastery. This is one of the reasons why trading can’t work for so many people.

Stop Blaming the Markets
The world is rife with people who often blame others for their woes (though some have genuine reasons for doing this). The same thing happens in trading; too many traders blame the markets for adverse circumstances they face, rather than accepting responsibility for their poor results.

When a novice makes money in the early days of their trading career, they childishly think the markets are easy to conquer. It’s the nature of the market to trend up, trend down and consolidate, doing this slowly or fast and furiously. It’s the nature of the market to be choppy, to zigzag or to experience fakeouts. It’s the nature of the market to pretend as though it’s going up or down or consolidating – only to do the opposite. That’s the nature of the market in the past and that’s how it’ll be forever.

The markets aren’t to blame. Despite these acts of the markets, many traders have devised ways to pull consistence profits on monthly, quarterly or annual basis. Those who blame the market for their woes would hardly make any progress, but those who take responsibility for whatever happens to them would see themselves as the only solution to their trading problems and take steps to solve the problem.

The true test of someone's character isn't how they handle success. It's how they cope with setbacks. When a trade goes against a good trader, she/he shrugs it off and moves to the next trade. Also, when a trade moves in favor of a good trader she/he shrugs it off and moves to the next trade.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“In the end, you simply have to learn one thing: You cannot force the market, you can only take what it offers.” Todd Gordon

Source: www.tallinex.com

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT PANAMA PAPERS AND ITS EFFECTS IN POPULAR PEOPLE WORLD

The Panama Papers are a leaked set of 11.5 million confidential documents that provide detailed information about more than 214,000 offshore companies listed by the Panamanian corporate service provider Mossack Fonseca, including the identities of shareholders and directors of the companies. The documents show how wealthy individuals, including public officials, hid their assets from public scrutiny. At the time of publication, the papers identified five then-heads of state or government leaders from Argentina, Iceland, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and the United Arab Emirates as well as government officials, close relatives, and close associates of various heads of government of more than forty other countries. The British Virgin Islands was home to half of the companies exposed and Hong Kong contained the most affiliated banks, law firms, and middlemen.

While the use of offshore business entities is not illegal in the jurisdictions in which they are registered, during their investigation reporters found that some of the shell companies may have been used for illegal purposes, including fraud, drug trafficking, and tax evasion.

An anonymous source using the pseudonym "John Doe" made the documents available in batches to German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung beginning in early-2015. The information from this unremunerated whistleblower. documents transactions as far back as the 1970s and eventually totaled 2.6 terabytes of data. Given the scale of the leak, the newspaper enlisted the help of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), which distributed the documents for investigation and analysis to some 400 journalists at 107 media organizations in 76 countries. The first news reports based on the papers, and 149 of the documents themselves, were published on April 3, 2016. The ICIJ plans to publish a full list of companies involved in early-May 2016.

Read more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Papers



Neteller here: www..com.ng

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 11 - 15, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
In the context of a downtrend, EURUSD consolidated throughout last week. One big formidable barrier to further northward journey is the resistance line 1.1400 (though the resistance line at 1.1450 was also tested). Bulls were unable to breach the resistance line at 1.1400 to the upside in spite of many forays into it. This week would be decisive for the pair. First, a breakout to the upside or the downside would happen. It would most probably be to the downside, should bulls fail to push price above the aforementioned resistance line. In case, price goes above the resistance line and remain above it, it would spell a defeat for bears.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair experienced a flat movement last week, not reaching, nor going below the support level at 0.9500 in spite of the fact that the bias is bearish. By the indication in the chart, the market would most likely go further south this week, which would be corroborated by the ability of USDCHF to go below the support level at 0.9500. In case the pair fails to achieve this, a considerable rally would be witnessed.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable was very volatile last week – reaching a high of 1.4319 and a low of 1.4004. The overall sentiment is negative, but bulls are not keeping their fingers crossed in this situation, for they are making attempts to effect a rally. One thing should be noted: The possibility of GBP gaining stamina is very high this week. GBP might be seen strengthening versus other major pairs; an event that could start this week. Therefore, the current bearish bias on the market might be challenged and eventually invalidated.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since March 29, 2016, USDJPY has dropped by nearly 600 pips. Last week alone, price dropped by at least, 350 pips. This has caused a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. After all, it had been forecasted that that JPY pairs might become weak before the end of this month, and the weakness started earlier than anticipated. On USDJPY, bears are still determined to reach the demand levels at 107.50, 107.00 and 106.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped 450 pips last week alone, almost testing the demand zone at 122.50. The shallow northward effort that was witnessed around the end of the weak is cleanly negligible, for price is expected to continue its southwards journey this week, reaching the support zones at 122.50, 122.00 and 121.50. Long trades do not look rational in the market, unless there is a clear sign of Yen easing.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“When you take action, and make enough trades, the odds may work in your favor, and you'll end up with profits. So as you trade, take an action-oriented approach. As Mark Douglas suggests in "Trading in the Zone," the more you find excuses to avoid making trades, the less likely you'll be at actually taking home profits. But if you look for an edge, and use this edge to make numerous trades, you'll increase your chances of success. In trading, there are proven strategies that work under specific market conditions. If you look hard enough, you'll find them, and use them to your advantage.” – Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

Source: www.tallinex.com

Salem Abraham: Nearly Three Decades of Good Performances

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 6[b]

“We do not have a crystal ball, so we do not know when this current losing period will end. However, we can look in the rear view mirror and see that when we experienced periods like this before, not only did we survive, but we thrived.” [/b]– Salem Abraham

Name: Salem Abraham
Date of birth: 1966
Nationality: American
Occupation: Investor and fund manager
Website: Abrahamtrading.com

HE KNEW HE WAS GOING TO BE SUCCESSFUL
Born in Canadian, Hemphill County, Texas, Salem finished studying at Canadian High School, and the Roman Catholic-affiliated University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana. While in College, he developed an interest in the markets, inspired by Jerry Parker, who was also a fund manager.

In January 1988, he started Abraham Trading Company (ATC), with an initial capital of $100,000. The company trades different types of financial markets, including real estate, commodities, stocks, currencies, and interest rates. Owing to good performances in the first years, the company was able to lure more investors. Right now the assets under their management are $302 million.

A friend of Salem said Salem knew he was going to be successful. His assumption has been proven correct. Salem is married to Ruth Ann Dennis, and they’re blessed with 8 kids.

What You Need to Know:
1. Since ATC was founded in 1988, it’s had 7 losing years and 21 winning years. The biggest loss per annum was -10.95% (2005), and the smallest loss per annum was – 0.42% (1996). The biggest profit per annum was 142.04% (1988), and the smallest profit per annum was 0.43% (2013). The targeted annual profit rate was 15% - 20%. Since the company was formed till the end of the year 2008, the average profits were 21.8% per annum. This is a lesson for many of you who’ve irrational and unrealistic expectations from the markets. Please read this paragraph again and see the quote at the end of this article. What can you infer?

2. What is ATC’s trading methodology? On their website it’s stated that, the ATC trading methodology is a systematic approach blending long-term trend following, short-term trend following, short-term momentum and mean reversion strategies. Each strategy is further divided into sub-systems to facilitate smoother entries and exits. They’ve also implemented filtering techniques in some strategies to avoid trades with adverse risk/reward characteristics. While the filter's goal is to capture profits, its selectiveness allows the system to enter markets only during periods when the risk/reward of a trade is heavily in the trade's favor. It’s even possible that if unacceptable risk characteristics exist, the filter could avoid trades with positive profit expectations. The end result is a trading method that has historically provided their investors exceptional returns with low correlation to stock and bond investments.

3. In order to create a winning speculation methodology, you need experience. According to the ATC website, the most common and most dangerous error made in system development is curve fitting. One thing that has been learned over the last 25 years of trading is that curve fitting cannot be understood by theory alone. There are many statistical traps that can only be learned by trading systems real-time. Statistics require many assumptions. It’s extremely difficult to know which of these assumptions are valid in the real world until they are actually put into practice in the real world. This is really an important statement.

4. There are popular trading ideas, theories and strategies that fail when put to tests. These ideas, strategies, theories are, ridiculously, accepted by economists, statisticians and analysts.

5. We want to be sure we’ve an edge. This edge is attained by following the dominant biases, but it doesn’t mean you’ll make money every month (or even every year). It’s still futile to look for magical indicators or chart patterns or price action or trading methodology that works with insane accuracy. Those who manage millions or billions of dollars don’t make money every month (or even every year); yet they’re successful overall.

Conclusion: In one of his past newsletters, Salem revealed how casinos make money. For example, when a roulette wheel is spun, a casino has no way of telling what the outcome will be. Casinos, like trend followers, are not able to predict the future. But, casinos know that if a roulette wheel is spun enough times, they will come out ahead, and this is because the odds are in their favor. On a practical level, one very simple way to put the odds in your favor in the stock market is, again, to trade with trend. A very basic rule of thumb that’s followed in this regard is this: Buy stocks making new highs in bull markets. Short sell stocks that are making new lows in bear markets. There is more to trend following than this, but even if you follow this very simple rule, I think it’ll give you a small edge. If a small edge is repeated over time

I’d like to conclude this article with the quote below. It’s really a food for thought:

“I have noted over the years that it is the lack of realism that brings traders undone. The traditional approach I have seen with traders is that they read a book on the weekend start trading on Monday, expect to buy a Porsche on Wednesday and move to Provence on Friday. When this doesn’t happen they throw their toys out of the pram and give up. Much like they have done with everything else, which is why they are in the position, they are. Trading is a grind, it is not as portrayed either in the news or in other forms of media. You do the same thing in the same way everyday – that is simply the way it is and most cannot cope with this. The reality of time and effort defeats their dream simply because it takes time and effort.” – Chris Tate (Source: Tradinggame.com.au)

Source: www.tallinex.com


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (April 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
On the daily chart, Gold is in an uptrend; whereas a lower timeframe like the 4-hour chart shows that there is bearish pressure on the market. In the context of an uptrend, price was engaged in a bearish correction throughout the month of March, causing price to reach a monthly low of 1208.18. Attempted rallies were often followed by pullbacks, as evident in lower highs and lower lows in the market. Things could turn bearish, in case price goes below the demand level at 1170.00 (which would require a significant selling pressure). Should price fail to drop below the demand level at 1170.00, a protracted rally may start, in conjunction with the recent bullish outlook.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver is bullish on the daily chart and bearish on the 4-hour chart. This is a very volatile market, which means that the current volatility should be taken into consideration, since it could continue for the next several days. In the last month, price reached a high of 16.1100; but the bullish effort is often frustrated by the bearish machination (stronger dips). It is logical to assume that whatever happens to Gold would rub off on Sliver. Should the former go south as mentioned earlier, the latter would test the demand zone at 14.4000, thereby frustrating the current Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. A rally on Gold would also help Silver to assume a considerable amount of bullishness.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 4 - 8, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD moved upwards by 250 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1400. That resistance line has proven to be an obstacle to bulls because price was unable to close above it last week (in spite of forays into it). Price might be able to go above the resistance line eventually, but it might not be able to go far north. There is a possibility that this pair would experience a large pullback this week, which might enable it to reach the support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument went down 200 pips last week, closing below the resistance level at 0.9600. The support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500 could be breached this week. However, there might be a rally – which would be significant enough to threaten the current bearish bias. In case price moves above the resistance level at 0.9850, it would result in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
From Monday to Wednesday, Cable went upwards by 330 pips, reaching the distribution territory at 1.4450. Bears effected further movement at that territory, causing the market to experience a bearish correction of 250 pips. The ongoing bearish correction might make price further downwards by 100 – 200 pips, but there would soon be an exponential rally in the market, which would eventually render the current bearish outlook invalid. The outlook on GBP is bright for the month of April, and as a result of this, we would see GBP gaining strength versus other major currencies. Wild fluctuations with other major currencies like AUD and NZD would be witnessed.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a currently a “sell” signal in this market, owing to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in it. Price closed below the supply level at 112.00, going towards the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00. Long trades do not make sense in this market, until there is a clean indication of bulls’ hegemony, which would only be brought about by serious weakness in Yen. The movement for this month would mostly be bearish.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Bulls were able to push this popular cross to the upside until it reached the supply zone at 128.00. There has been a shallow pullback around that zone, causing the cross to close at 127.24 on April 1, 2016. Further bullish movement is possible this week, though there could be another bearish run before the end of the month. JPY pairs are expected to continue moving upwards this week (and perhaps, next week), but they would begin to go south before the end of the month.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Most traders… will tell you their success came from finding the approach that best suits them and pushing through it to get better and better.” – Elitetrader


Source: www.tallinex.com

Lessons from a Social Trading Program

“I realised that the best way to free myself from worries about uncertain outcomes, is to make sure a negative outcome of a specific trade will not affect me.” - Christiaan van der Meer

I recently came across a popular social trading program that enables signals providers to go through various career levels. This social trading program appeals to me because it doesn’t honor those who achieve most profits over the shortest period of the time without considering risk control methods and survivability of trading strategies used over a long period. The organizers of the social trading programs know what it takes to be a winning trader – unlike most competition organizers who flaunt lucky gamblers as market wizards.

There are 5 categories of traders in the program, namely: street traders, advanced traders, professional traders, risk-adjusted traders and institutional traders. Street trader is the lowest level and institutional trader is the highest levels and that is the level that most followers want to follow. You go through each level one after the other, and gradually.

Traders going through each level must not suffer more than 25% at each level.

1. A street trader must spend 30 days at that level and must make at least 0.5% profits before becoming an advanced trader.
2. An advanced trader must spend 90 days and must make at least 1.5% profits before becoming a professional trader.
3. A professional trader must spend 180 days and must make at least 3.0% profits before becoming a risk-adjusted trader.
4. A risk-adjusted trader must spend 360 days and must make at least 6.0% profits, before becoming an institutional trader, who must spend at least 365 days to get to that level.

Institutional traders are what people want to follow. Honestly, anyone who reaches the institutional trader level really has a proven strategy and safe risk control techniques. One sensible trader follows one institutional trader and he’s happy to have gained 2.1% in a recent month (not 20% or 200% per month that irrational people aspire to).

If trading contests and social trading programs were structured like this, all temporarily lucky suicide traders and gamblers would be prevented from reaching the top: the highest level. Can traders, brokerage firms, trading education websites, and other financial institutions learn anything from this?

A Baptism of Fire
When you buy or develop a new trading methodology, you’re in high spirits, thinking that you’ll soon be soaked in money and you’ll be rich enough to serve your landlord a quit notice. However, your newly-found speculation methodology will sooner or later go through a baptism of fire.

There are merits and demerits of wide stops, tight stops, wide targets and tight targets.

When a take profit level is tight, profits are taken quickly and the hit rate increases. But it’s the disadvantage of missing on larger movements for each trade, therefore making us to miss out on greater profits.

When a take profit level is wide, the hit rate is reduced but few trades that hit the target levels would recover numerous losses. Wide take profit levels are rarely hit in consolidating markets.

When a stop loss level is tight, we’re quickly taken out of the markets in case adverse movements occur and we keep our losses small as well. But it’s the disadvantage of too frequent stop-outs, plus too many small and accumulated losses can become something big with time. We’re also frequently, prematurely stopped out of trades that could end up being profitable.

When a stop loss is wide, we give our open positions enough leeway so that in some cases, we aren’t prematurely stopped out of positions that could end up being winners. This has the potential of increasing our hit rate, but there is a disadvantage of being stopped out eventually, which makes the loss per stop loss trigger a considerable thing because of its width.

If you don’t use stop loss, then you’re a suicide trader and a gambler. This means your risk is unlimited. You may look smart in most cases and for a long time, provided that market are choppy and consolidating, but rare adverse movements will soon occur and your account will go kaput.

If you don’t use take profit levels, then you need patience and discipline to catch rare trending markets which would recover all your past losses and move you ahead. This means your reward is potentially unlimited, though you’re better off using take profit levels.

To sum it up, someone called “loyek590” on Elitetrader.com wrote: “I've traded the chop and I've traded the trend. The chop is nice because you make money every day. Until that one day that wipes out the whole months profits. Now I trade the trend and lose money almost everyday, until I catch that one rare trend and hopefully it wipes out all those small losses.

This is really a baptism of fire which all traders will face. If your trading methodology can come out victoriously in spite of the advantages and disadvantages mentioned above, then you’ve found a pearl of inestimable value.

Conclusion: [/b]There are no perfect trading methods or perfect risk control methods. We simply need to find optimal parameters for our strategies and adapt to the ongoing market conditions. I’m so grateful and happy now that I allow my stops to always protect my capital. I know a trader who’s never had a negative year in his career – this is possible for all us to attain.

This piece is ended by the quote below:
[b]
“Accept drawdowns as part of this business and learn how to deal with them. When you think about increasing your position-size, be aware that more profits usually mean more risk. Get to know your drawdowns and backtest to get an idea of what to expect so that you’re not surprised when it happens.” - Marco Mayer



Source: www.tallinex.com


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 28 – April 1, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
As expected, this pair got corrected lower last week, moving downward by 120 pips before closing while consolidating. The support line at 1.1150 has been tested and it would be breached to the downside this week. EUR would be seen weakening against major currencies before the end of this month, except in the case of EURJPY (making the bias on the market go bearish). Therefore, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 are vulnerable this week and next.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF moved higher by 100 pips last week, closing above the support level at 0.9750. It might be possible for USDCHF to go upwards this week, because further bearish movement on EURUSD could help it to rally. In addition, CHF itself has a probability of becoming weak soon (CHF could be weak versus other majors, save CHFJPY). Thus the resistance levels at 0.9800, 0.9850 and 0.9900 could be attained this week or next.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument went south by roughly 400 pips last week, almost reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4050. Although there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, bulls would be seen trying to push up the price this week, with a measure of success. There is an accumulation territory at 1.4000, which would try to hinder further bearish journey. When price turns and goes upwards, the distribution territories at 1.4200, 1.4250 and 1.4300 could be attained this week or next.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY was seen making bullish effort throughout last week. However, the bullish effort was not significant enough to bring about a change in the dominant bias. It is expected that the pair would continue moving upwards this week, owing to a bullish expectation on JPY pairs. USDJPY would move upwards by a minimum of 100 pips during the week, causing a bullish bias to form in the market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This cross consolidated throughout last week, neither going below the demand zone at 125.00 nor going above the supply zone at 126.50. A breakout is imminent this week, which would most possibly favor bulls. A closer look at the market shows that the bulls are still determined to effect a rally here, which could make price to reach the supply zones at 127.00 and 127.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It's useful to remember that you may not win on any single trade, but after a series of trades you will have enough winners to make a profit in the long run.” - Andy Jordan

Source: www.tallinex.com

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (March 21 – April 8, 2016)

USDJPY = Buy

AUDJPY = Buy

CADJPY = Buy

CHFJPY = Buy

EURJPY = Buy

GBPJPY = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.


Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 21 - 25, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
From Monday till Wednesday, this pair moved south. Price broke upwards on Wednesday as it rose significantly by 280 pips that day and on Thursday. On Friday, price got corrected lower a bit, closing at 1.1269. However, the outlook on EUR is bearish for this week, and bulls would experience serious difficulties in pushing price further upwards. This weakness could also be witnessed on other EUR pair like EURCAD and EURNZD.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week, USDCHF took a serious battering as prognosticated, given what also happened to USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, etc. After consolidating from Monday to Wednesday, price dropped like a stone on Wednesday and Thursday, testing the support level at 0.9650. While further southward moved is not ruled out, the situation could change this week, especially in the case of EURUSD, for USDCHF might rally considerably when EURUSD trends downwards seriously.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable was subjected to strong movements last week. From Monday to Wednesday, price dipped by 320 pips, later to rise on the same day. Within Wednesday and Thursday, price went upwards 440 pips. But bulls have met a stubborn opposition at the distribution territory of 1.4500; they could not push the price beyond that accumulation territory. Should bulls succeed in pushing price beyond 1.4500, the next targets would be the distribution territories at 1.4550 and 1.4600. There are also probabilities of pullbacks along the way.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY, which was quite choppy in the last few weeks, gave in to gravity last week. Price dropped by 300 pips, ramming into the demand level at 111.00. Although there is a clean Bearing Confirmation Pattern in the market, price could rally this week. After all, price has been unable to close below the demand level at 110.00 as it bounced off that level. JPY pairs are expected to rally this week, and USDJPY may not be an exception. So it is rational to assume that the bearish journey that occurred last week simply paved way for the bullish journey that could occur this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross consolidated throughout last week, not moving significantly upwards or downwards. This bullish outlook is still somewhat valid despite the ongoing consolidation, though a breakout is imminent this week. When a breakout occurs, it would most probably favor bulls, because the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week. Traders are advised not to trade against JPY pairs this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“We hope your January through February proves to be profitable. After one more month, March, you can evaluate your quarterly trades to make adjustments. If adjustments are necessary, make sure that they align with your trading plans.” – Tradingeducators

Copyright: Tallinex.com

Liz Cheval: A Legendary Female Turtle Trader

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 5

“Attach yourself to a trading mentor. The cost will be far less than trying to do it yourself. Swallow your pride and get help. If you cannot afford a mentor, then you have no business trading. Why? Because you are starting out undercapitalised. When you start trading you need, at the very least, daily guidance.” – Joe Ross

Name: Liz Cheval
Date of birth: November 1, 1956
Nationality: American
Occupation: Trader and funds manager

FROM TURTLE TO TITAN
Liz Cheval got a degree in math from Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin, and after that, she worked as a clerk at the Chicago Board of Trade. At that time, there were few women in the world of trading.

Richard Dennis and William Eckhard argued about the possibility of training people and making them successful traders. He decided to train some people and give them his capital to trade. Richard made an attempt to test his idea, and so, he put out an advert, looking for those who would be interested in registering for a training program. Liz was among those who applied.

She was the only woman among those who applied. It turned out that the interview was simply the opportunity of a lifetime. She passed through an interview and began training with others. According to one source, she was able to earn the respect of her peers, and believed that working in a group of professional, competitive men helped prime her for professional challenges in the future.

After the training, the trainees (also called “turtles”) started their trading career. Liz founded and chaired EMC Capital in 1988, which was based in Illinois. The firm started with $1 million, and grew to have nearly $150 million in managed futures program.

Liz was a legendary market player as well as generous, and down-to-earth. She was kind to everyone. She once made annual profits of 107% for a period of 5 years; and she continued to perform well after that.

Liz died of aneurysm during a business trip to China. She was aged 56.

What You Need to Know:
1. It’s good for women to become traders. For women considering entering the financial industry, Liz revealed that she’d always encouraged them to manage money because she believed it to be a gender neutral occupation. No one can dispute women’s contribution based on gender investment management. Your performance is there in black and white profit and loss report. With so much trading done electronically now, money management is a good field for women.

2. Liz traded based on price action. There was no need to know what the government reports said, or what OPEC was doing or what other economic figures turned out to be. Whatever the fundamentals brought about would be seen live in the markets. She traded what she saw and she was profitable.

3. Liz was quoted as saying: “You need both a successful trading strategy and, more importantly, a reliable method to adapt the strategy to future market conditions. A successful trading strategy requires robust systems and sound risk management principles. The trading strategy is only as good as your research process. You have to identify robust estimators and develop a process to continually adapt the systems based on these reliable estimators…. You have to be disciplined in executing both trading and research strategies, in good periods and bad. A CTA has to be committed to their strategy whether it is in or out of favor.”

4. Liz believed that the markets, traders, money managers and investors, need to adapt. The ability to adapt to change is the key to long term success in trading. It’s relatively easy to develop a profitable trading strategy over a short time frame. It’s far more challenging to develop a reliable method to continually adapt the strategy to future market conditions.

Conclusion: There are things you need to overcome or give up before you can attain permanent success in the markets. Joe Ross, quote above, says traders have to give up themselves. They’ve to become different entirely, by overcoming pride, lack of patience, greed, selfishness, fear, intolerance, discontent, anxiety, and lust for money. They need to replace those things with self-discipline, self-control, humility, faith in themselves and what they’re doing, willingness to help others, being content with what the market gives them, joy in place of anxiety, and love of trading in place of lust for money (adapted from TRADERS’ magazine, October/November 2015).

This piece is ended with a quote from Liz:

“Go for it. Today the physical advantage of men [in the trading pits] is inconsequential because trading is virtually 100% electronic. I give the same advice to both men and women seeking entry level jobs in managed futures. Technical skills are mandatory. Great thinkers and idea creators need technical applications to test and execute trading strategies. Having those skills is a great way to gain entry or to build your own business.”

Copyright: Tallinex.com

Trading Signals for NZD Pairs (March 17 – April 14, 2016)

NZDUSD = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NZDCAD = Buy

NZDCHF = Buy

EURNZD = Sell

GBPNZD = Sell

AUDNZD = Sell

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Copyright: Tallinex.com

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This is interesting!

This is interesting!

When I was a fool about 7 years ago, I was always a victim of women who had no sympathy for me. I used to ignore those signs, trying desperately to keep their favor – only to end up appearing like an idiot.

But now, I’ve no sympathy for women who did things without considering how they affect me (without showing sympathy for me in spite of my efforts). Anytime a woman shows only two of the signs above, I call it quit.

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 14 - 18, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair consolidated from Monday to Wednesday, breaking out northward on Thursday (March 10, 2016). On that day, price first spiked downwards and then rallied significantly, testing the resistance line at 1.1200. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is possible that the price would continue going northwards this week, going above the resistance line at 1.1200, and testing another resistance lines at 1.1250 and 1.1300.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF was merely consolidating between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0000. On Thursday, the market performed a false breakout above the resistance level at 1.0000 and later trended strongly downwards. This has led to a “sell” signal in the market, which might continue this week. USD will be facing challenges from some major pairs, like EUR and GBP (even NZD will rally this week, for it would be strong versus other currencies). So USD is in for a serious battering this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was mentioned last week, this currency trading instrument rallied, testing the distribution territory at 1.4400 and closing at 1.4383 on Friday. Price is supposed to continue going upwards this week, targeting the distribution territories at 1.4450 and 1.4500. Price might even move beyond these distribution territories, but not without attacks from bears, who would show enough desperation in dragging price south.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
USDJPY went through a turbulent phase within March 7 and 11, with no clear victory between bull and bear. On Monday and Tuesday, price moved downwards. On Wednesday, it moved upwards, while Thursday was full of morbid threats from bears. Bulls dared the bears’ threats on Friday, managing to push price upwards slightly on Friday. What will happen next? The current price action shows that price could continue moving upwards from here, although persistent weakness in USD could cause the anticipated bullish movement to be somewhat limited.


EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross consolidated on Monday, moved downwards on Tuesday and began to rally Wednesday. In fact, the rally that happened on Wednesday took the cross upwards by over 400 pips, as its price tested the supply zone at 127.00. Bulls are still showing willingness to push the cross further north; plus there is a bullish signal in the market. The potential targets for the week are located at 127.50 and 128.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Effective traders are willing to get out of their comfort zones and try new things. I know it might be scary to go into the unknown, but to have more in life, you must take smart risks.” – Louise Bedford

Copyright: Tallinex.com

One of the Most Devilish Conundrums Faced by Traders

One of the most devilish conundrums faced by traders is what to do when an instrument they are following gives a valid signal but this signal is either at an all-time high or low. Such a situation has recently occurred with wheat, which according to my system gave a valid sell signal as it moved to a new low.

Another example of this is the GBPUSD daily chart for November 2015 to February 2016. It can be seen that within the stipulated period, the pair dropped 1500 pips, while rallies along the way offered short-selling opportunities. Now, when everything looked oversold at the end of February 2016, and you trading system gave you a valid “sell” signal, would you sell? Or would you simply go against the trend or buy?

The rues that govern trading often run counter to the rules that seem to govern the rest of society – in our daily lives we seem to have a built in barometer of what we think things are worth. This barometer is generally correct in our daily lives. For example, we know that if on Wednesday we walk into our local baker and the price of a loaf of bread has risen from $5.00 to $15.00 that we are being ripped off. Our value scale in this instance has worked. Similarly, if we walk into a car yard and see a car advertised for a fraction of its value we know that something strange is going on and all sorts of alarm bells go off.

Yet, in trading this inbuilt sense of the economics of life is useless. Granted, there are people who think they know what something is worth and they generate all manner of models and hyperbole to justify this judgment. They make the mistake of believing that the market is somehow listening to their internal narrative. These are the sort of people who are convinced that oil is worth $100 a barrel and that the market is just wrong. The only value in trading that is true and correct at all times is the value given to something by the market. You will often hear statements along the lines that the market is incorrect in its assessment of the value of something. As a basic principle the market can never be wrong – if we assume that the market is a synthesis of all opinions and knowledge then the price and trend it sets for an instrument is correct and anything else is simply tilting at windmills.

As a basic rule we have no idea how high or how low prices will go.

Author: Chris Tate


Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au. For more helpful articles, trading products and services, and to pick up a free 5-part e-course, please visit: Tradinggame.com.au


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