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The latest Hamas war on Israel is the first in seven years. Many Hamas leaders doubted that they were ready for another offensive because the Israelis had continued to outsmart Hamas, especially after the 2014 attack. That one turned out to be a major embarrassment for Hamas, which proceeded much the same way as the current offensive. Hamas had hoped that a closer relationship with Iran would enable them to more effectively plan another offensive. In retrospect, depending on Iran may not be so wise given the number of times Israel has outsmarted Iran in the last few years. Hamas rivals in the West Bank seem to have appreciated the Iranian fall from grace more quickly and used it against Hamas.

Accepting Iran as a patron, cost Hamas a lot of popular support among Palestinians and with the foreign aid donors. Another interpretation is that rival Fatah in the West Bank deliberately sought to goad Hamas into a war with Israel. The timing of the recent Jerusalem violence created by Fatah seems to indicate that Hamas and Fatah are under enormous pressure to hold elections that will once more produce a unified Palestinian government.

Hamas thought attacking Israel again would help Hamas win this election. But a week after starting that war Hamas now saw the likely end which was another humiliation and this make it more likely that Fatah will win the election. The Hamas war also puts more pressure on both rivals to delay the elections until they were certain they will win. That meant the elections will never be held, unless a new crises emerges that makes Fatah look better and Hamas much worse. This would force Hamas to accept the elections and lose control of Gaza, or risk a civil war in Gaza with Egypt and Israel backing Fatah. Hamas had made itself very unpopular with Gazans, Egypt, Israel and Fatah.

The Reality Check

Hamas was not ready for another war with Israel but Israel was, having tamed the covid19 threat faster than anyone else in the region and were outperforming Hamas in the current conflict because Israel had learned more from the 2014 war than Hamas and was quicker to take advantage of that.

An example of this took place on May 12th when the movement of several Israeli combat brigades to the Gaza border was followed by the announcement that Israeli ground forces had moved into Gaza. Israel knew that the Hamas war plan mandated that all senior leaders head for underground bunkers or tunnels when this happened.

The ground assault was not happening but Israeli airstrikes soon took place with over 400 smart bombs and guided missiles used in less than an hour. Many of the smart bombs were of the ground penetrating variety. It was no secret that Israel had a lot of these ground penetrating bombs and also designed and manufactured them.

It was also no secret that since 2014 Israel had developed new tech for quickly finding underground bunkers. In addition the Israeli informant network inside Gaza had paid a lot of attention to where the new Hamas underground tunnels and shelters were. Hamas finally realized all this when dozens of their underground shelters, now full of key Hamas personnel, were damaged or destroyed by the ground penetrating bombs. These bombs were all delivered, against over a hundred Hamas targets, in less than 40 minutes. That made it difficult for Hamas personnel in the shelters to get word to get out of the shelters because Hamas had been the played and the shelters had become traps which many Hamas personnel did not escape.

Many Hamas leaders also blame Fatah for the timing of this war, because Fatah has gained more support among Palestinians. The current round of violence has spread from Jerusalem for other towns and cities with sizable numbers of Moslem Israelis. About one in six Israeli citizens is an Arab Moslem.

These Israelis lead better, more prosperous and safer lives than Arabs in the West Bank, Gaza or any of the neighboring Arab countries. But the culture of resentment, especially against non-Moslems still survives in Israel as it does among Moslems, especially Moslems living in the west. This is a known, and major, flaw with Islam which is the only major religion whose scripture mandates continuous violence against infidels (non-believers). The Islamic scriptures make it clear that the mere existence of infidels is a threat to Islam and must be attacked, no matter what the cost.

Most Moslems ignore this aspect of their religion, at the risk of being declared a heretic if conservative Moslems near them who decide to get violent and go jihad (war on) against any Infidels within reach. Many Moslems, including Gulf oil state Arab governments are openly seeking a way to reform Islam and eliminate this flaw which has been crippling Islam and killing Moslems for over a thousand years. This is a serious effort and one reason for making peace with Israel.

Allies In Gaza

The first six hours of May 18 was the longest period without any Hamas rocket launches since this war began on the 10th. During this pause Israel continued carrying out airstrikes against Hamas targets in Gaza. The smart bomb attacks continue to trigger even larger secondary explosions from rocket stockpiles. Israel has been systematically working down a long list of known or suspected rocket storage sites. Few are at above-ground military bunkers or warehouses. Many are under civilian facilities or in residential areas.

Israel calls ahead to warn residents of the target to evacuate. Most of the explosive force usually comes from the secondary explosion, which leaves behind rocket parts and some intact rockets, which have to be carefully removed before they accidentally detonate. Secondary explosions from rockets stored in the tunnels Hamas has built since 2014 often cause nearby building foundations to fail and produce many collapsed buildings with no bomb damage.

All these visible evidence of Hamas military spending since 2014, with tunnels built using materials donated for rebuilding housing and infrastructure, is one of the reasons Gazans blame Hamas more than Israel for the damage. If underground bunkers were not filled with Iranian and locally built rockets, there would be less additional damage from secondary explosions. Hamas blames all the damage and casualties on Israel but people in the target area know otherwise as the evidence is all around them.

Israel never made a secret about their priority put on destroying rocket stockpiles. [b]Since 2014 Israel has carried an enormous intelligence collecting effort in Gaza. Using continuous aerial and electronic surveillance and an expanded informant system inside Gaza. [/b]That network has been around as long as Gaza has existed as a Palestinian population center. Hamas was constantly searching for informants and not having much success because[b] informants belonging to some of the powerful clan organizations in Gaza saw the Israelis are reliable employers and willing to go to extremes to develop clan support and protection from Hamas. [/b]The better organized and more powerful clans have to be handled carefully by Hamas. As Hamas power has declined the clan capabilities and influence have increased. As long as the clans stay out of politics, Hamas will not go after them.

Occasional news reports of Israeli special operations troops, in civilian clothes, having to fight their way out of Gaza is one of the few visible signs of the Israeli intelligence network inside Gaza. These teams go in when a personal visit by Arab speaking (and appearing) Israelis is needed. These visits would not be possible without a support network inside Gaza. Hamas only detects and confronts these small teams when a random (unpredictable) Hamas checkpoint is established and staffed with personnel who refuse bribes. That’s increasingly rare inside Gaza as Hamas policies continue to cripple the local economy. Covert Israeli assistance does the opposite, unless Hamas gets a massive case of the stupids and launched another major rocket offensive on Israel.

The UAE (United Arab Emirates), which cut its aid to Gaza in February when it established diplomatic relations with Israel, has told Hamas that if they don’t stop attacking Israel the UAE will not move forward with plans for massive economic and aid after a Palestinian-Israel peace deal was completed. That required Hamas and Fatah to carry out elections to determine which will run a united Palestinian government. Reluctance to proceed with those elections is one reason for the renewed violence against Israel. Most other Arab oil state donors are following the same policy, just not as openly as the UAE.

In the north Palestinians in southern Lebanon fired six rockets towards Israel yesterday. Five landed on the Lebanese side of the border while the other one landed in an uninhabited Israeli area. Israeli sensors detected the launch and quickly determined the launch site and artillery fired at least 22 shells at the launch site. UN peacekeepers on the border and Lebanese border guards conducted a search for who launched the rocks and soon discovered it as some local Palestinians.

Compared to 2014 Hamas was able to launch about three times as many rockets as they did in 2014. But as a result of the Israeli intel efforts and more effective targeting, the larger number of rockets were less effective. Casualties have been lower as well. So far the Hamas attacks have killed ten Israelis, one of them a soldier and one a foreigner. Over 500 Israelis have been wounded. Hamas reports 220 dead and 1,400 wounded. Between 60-80 percent of the Gaza dead are Hamas personnel, although Hamas will, as they did in 2014, claim otherwise. The West Bank violence has left one Israeli and 17 Palestinians dead.

In Gaza it’s a repeat of the 51 day 2014 war but with Hamas fading more quickly this time. In part this is because of the decline in Hamas support within Gaza as well as Israel learning more from the 2014 war than Hamas. In the West Bank Fatah has not prospered because to compete with Hamas they had to double down on their “Israel must be destroyed” rhetoric. That has cost them a lot of foreign aid as more evidence of Fatah using aid money to directly assist and encourage Palestinians to attack and try to kill Israelis.

The 2014 war went on for so long (after Hamas indicated it had had enough) because Israel wanted get a better idea of the Hamas situation in Gaza and better prepare for the next Hamas attack. After eight days Hamas is already searching for a way to surrender and avoid all the embarrassing Israeli scrutiny of 2014. Hamas is still able to launch rockets, but can do so less and less.

In 2014 73 Israelis (six military) and 2,100 Palestinians died during 51 days of fighting, including Israeli tanks and infantry moving in to some areas of Gaza.

In 2021 Israel appeared to be threatening a ground attack but held back. The reason is because they collected more and better BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) from the air and sources on the ground than in 2014.

theTranslator:
https://www.nairaland.com/6567418/arabs-keep-decieving-palestinians-israel

Very interesting