₦airaland Forum

The US is playing a dangerous game of putting a public face on a policy of defending Taiwan from China, for which it has zero capability to implement.
Following a recent escalation of tensions between Beijing and Taipei, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to pursue “reunification” with Taiwan by peaceful means and warned foreign nations about meddling in the issue.

For the past several years, the air force of the People’s Republic of China has been flying sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, as a means of sending a signal to Taipei that China does not recognize its claims of independence and, as such, any notion of an ADIZ is null and void. These incidents, which have been escalating over the years, recently reached a crescendo: China, according to Taipei, flew 38 aircraft in two waves into Taiwan’s ADIZ on October 1, 39 more on October 2 (also in two waves), and 16 the following day.

In response, the US State Department spokesman Ned Price issued a statement. “The United States is very concerned by the People’s Republic of China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan, which is destabilizing, risks miscalculations, and undermines regional peace and stability. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.”

China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying replied “Taiwan belongs to China and the US is in no position to make irresponsible remarks. The relevant remarks by the US side seriously violate the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiqués and send an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal.”

On October 4, Taipei said that China sent its largest wave of aircraft yet into Taiwan’s ADIZ, some 56 in total, including 36 J-16 and Su-30 fighter jets, 12 nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, 2 Y-8 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft and two KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.

Alarmed by these developments, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen declared that “Taiwan does not seek military confrontation. It hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable, and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbors. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life.”

‘Whatever it takes’, however, is an infinite concept backed up by the finite reality that Taiwan has a military of about 165,000 active-duty troops and about 1.6 million reserve soldiers which has been equipped with billions of dollars of advanced American-made military equipment.

While Taiwan’s military may look good on paper, it is ill-prepared for the realities of the kind of full-scale combat that will be directed at them if China ever decides to go through with an invasion. As the world learned in Afghanistan, impressive numbers on paper do not automatically translate into an impressive fighting force on the ground. And China would be delivering violence on a scale several orders of magnitude above what the Taliban could ever contemplate.

If China ever decided to invade Taiwan, the working assumption would be that it had conducted an extensive intelligence-based assessment of its chances of victory, which would have to be near-certain in order for China to undertake an action that would bring with it the condemnation of much of the world. China would have located with pin-point precision the garrisons and deployment locations of every major Taiwanese ground combat unit. It would have done the same with every combat-capable aircraft in the Taiwanese inventory. And it would have identified the logistics bases used by Taiwan to sustain its frontline combat forces. All of these would be subjected to extensive pre-assault bombardment by the Chinese air and ballistic missile forces.

Any surviving Taiwanese units would then be faced with the daunting task of repelling a massive invasion which would likely comprise a combination of amphibious and air assault forces. Assuming enough units survived the pre-assault bombardment to put up a competent defense, they would rapidly run through their on-hand stocks of ammunition, fuel, and food. Units that were cut off from resupply would begin to surrender, and the notion of surrender would become contagious. Pockets of die-hard defenders could survive to fight on for a period, but the reality is that Taiwan would fall in less than a week.

Much has been made about the US ability to come to Taiwan’s defense. While the US may have made great waves sailing its navy through the Taiwan Strait, such a maneuver would be suicidal in a time of conflict. The US Navy would be relegated to standing by far to the east of Taiwan, out of the range of China’s deadly ballistic missile capability, launching aircraft which would have limited combat capability given fuel and weight limitations. The same holds true for the US Air Force. The fact is, any aircraft the US dispatched to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion would be rapidly attritted, with no replacements available in a time frame that could change the course of the battle on the ground in Taiwan.

Much has been made about media reports concerning the presence of US forces in Taiwan for the purpose of training the Taiwan military. These forces are not part of any formal alliance or defense pact, but rather part of what is known as “foreign internal defense” training missions, in this case involving a few dozen US Special Forces and US Marines doing small-unit training. This is not the kind of large-scale operational training undertaken by formal alliances such as NATO, where interoperability is essential for any joint combat operations.

The best the US could hope to do when it comes to defending Taiwan would be to modify existing warplanes for the reinforcement of South Korea. This war plan, known as OPLAN-5027, has a subsection known as a Time-Phased Deployment List, or TPFDL, which has identified the forces and equipment necessary to reinforce South Korea in time of war. At one time, the TPFDL had earmarked 690,000 troops, 160 Navy ships, and 1,600 aircraft for deployment from the US to South Korea within 90 days of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula.

Two things come to mind—by the time the US cavalry was ready to arrive in Taiwan, they would be about 83 days too late. And, more importantly, China would have consolidated its hold on Taiwan making any US effort to retake it suicidal. OPLAN-5027 envisions US forces flowing into South Korean ports that are controlled by the South Korean government. It is not an amphibious assault plan, and any effort to transform it into one would fail.

This is the reality-based state of play today when it comes to the defense of Taiwan by the US. The only alteration that could be made would be for the US to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan. This, of course, would trigger a general nuclear war with China, and the US is not prepared to commit national suicide for a nation it doesn’t even have a formal defensive pact with.

Ned Price might want to keep all of this in mind the next time he approaches the microphone to speak about defending Taiwan. He and the rest of the US government are writing checks with their mouths neither Taiwan nor the US military can cash. A better course of action would be to work with China and Taiwan toward the goal of peaceful unification which preserves intact the democratic system of government that exists in Taiwan.

Righteousness2:
USA Today cannot Defend itself talkless of Defending another.
The Destruction of the Sleeping Giant is right from within.
A Nation built on Godly Judaic Principles is now pointing its fist on GOD, and telling HIM we don't need you.
A Nation that is Defunding its Police, advancing abortions , Lgbt and all sorts of Depravity, even right into its Army.
Babylon the Great has Crossed the Line of No return.
Any Nation banking on the US is doing so at its own risk.
Babylon the Great is Gone!

Righteousness2:
USA Today cannot Defend itself talkless of Defending another.
The Destruction of the Sleeping Giant is right from within.
A Nation built on Godly Judaic Principles is now pointing its fist on GOD, and telling HIM we don't need you.
A Nation that is Defunding its Police, advancing abortions , Lgbt and all sorts of Depravity, even right into its Army.
Babylon the Great has Crossed the Line of No return.
Any Nation banking on the US is doing so at its own risk.
Babylon the Great is Gone!

ThatFairGuy:
This is pure insanity [s][/s]

Righteousness2:
bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla bla



Eweeeeeeyyyyy

dermmy:
China is ready to sacrifice whatever it takes to take back what it sees as a rogue province. A territory she lost to Chiang Kai-Shek's treachery and U.S. cold war politics. China is ready to fight to the last soldier standing but is U.S. ready to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of its troops in the defence of an Island that has no historical connection to America?

The motivation of Chinese troops is we are going to take back a territory that belonged to us but was taken away from us when we lost power now that we are up to the task we are ready to posess our possesion. But what would be the motivation of American troops? That they are going to die in a war over an island that does not belong to them right? An island that their 245yrs old country has no historical connection with.

Anyway U.S. always learn the hard way. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I don't see U.S. defending Taiwan in the event of war with China they can only supply weapons and logistics.

after4:
So Japan go fold hand they look, the UK. This guys do not know that even if the US government no gree enter the war, us generals and military contractors will push them into it. Make unah stop to dey over hype this china and their fake technologies that have not being tested. No be who first start fight dey win fight oh. After all the US invaded Vietnam and ran away. Talking about Afghanistan, russia also invaded them too and ran away. If chinko wan invade Taiwan make dem go ahead nah.

after4:
So Japan go fold hand they look, the UK. This guys do not know that even if the US government no gree enter the war, us generals and military contractors will push them into it. Make unah stop to dey over hype this china and their fake technologies that have not being tested. No be who first start fight dey win fight oh. After all the US invaded Vietnam and ran away. Talking about Afghanistan, russia also invaded them too and ran away. If chinko wan invade Taiwan make dem go ahead nah.

Righteousness2:
[s]USA Today cannot Defend itself talkless of Defending another.
The Destruction of the Sleeping Giant is right from within. The Outsiders will only complete the What the insiders have done.

A Nation built on Godly Judaic Principles is now pointing its fist on GOD, and telling HIM we don't need you.
A Nation that is Defunding its Police, advancing abortions , Lgbt and all sorts of Depravities even right into its Army.

Babylon the Great has Crossed the Line of No return.
Any Nation banking on the US is doing so at its own risk.
Babylon the Great is Gone![/s]

after4:
So Japan go fold hand they look, the UK. This guys do not know that even if the US government no gree enter the war, us generals and military contractors will push them into it. Make unah stop to dey over hype this china and their fake technologies that have not being tested. No be who first start fight dey win fight oh. After all the US invaded Vietnam and ran away. Talking about Afghanistan, russia also invaded them too and ran away. If chinko wan invade Taiwan make dem go ahead nah.

after4:
So Japan go fold hand they look, the UK. This guys do not know that even if the US government no gree enter the war, us generals and military contractors will push them into it. Make unah stop to dey over hype this china and their fake technologies that have not being tested. No be who first start fight dey win fight oh. After all the US invaded Vietnam and ran away. Talking about Afghanistan, russia also invaded them too and ran away. If chinko wan invade Taiwan make dem go ahead nah.

rottennaija:
China took back Hong Kong, what did US do? And China was not even as strong as it is today.

olugabbie:
If the US is not going to act. Other countries like UK & Japan would not dare step in to defend Taiwan. China can occupy Taiwan within weeks. Just like US did in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam e.t.c. But keeping it may be hard. Russia could not keep Afghanistan. Same with the US. The same thing may play out in this case. But i think China has learnt alots from Russia and US experience in middle east.

MangekyoAlt:
The UK, Japan, France and others wouldn't enter the war as that would easily trigger a world War. I mean if they do, then obviously North Korea and maybe Russia too would joun. If Russia joins, all the allies of Russia would join also. India would join would join also. Iran would use the rare opportunity to hit back at the US.
Also the next world War would be a nuclear war. No one wants that.

The Chinese will attack last last. It's inevitable.
What the US should do is to try to make sure they don't escalate everything as they always do

The war in Afghanistan wasn't a full scale war please

after4:
oga, Hong Kong is a different story, they were never a nation. the agreement was that they operate a democracy for 50 years and then join china. they just spent 25 years and china broke the agreement. Does Honk Kong have a military?
But Taiwan is a nation even though china refused to accept that. they had an independence, their military might is greater than nigeria with over 300 jet fighters. if china invade taiwan, they will loose at the long run

olugabbie:
If the US is not going to act. Other countries like UK & Japan would not dare step in to defend Taiwan. China can occupy Taiwan within weeks. Just like US did in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam e.t.c. But keeping it may be hard. Russia could not keep Afghanistan. Same with the US. The same thing may play out in this case. But i think China has learnt alots from Russia and US experience in middle east.

dermmy:
China is ready to sacrifice whatever it takes to take back what it sees as a rogue province. A territory she lost to Chiang Kai-Shek's treachery and U.S. cold war politics. China is ready to fight to the last soldier standing but is U.S. ready to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of its troops in the defence of an Island that has no historical connection to America?

The motivation of Chinese troops is we are going to take back a territory that belonged to us but was taken away from us when we lost power now that we are up to the task we are ready to posess our possesion. But what would be the motivation of American troops? That they are going to die in a war over an island that does not belong to them right? An island that their 245yrs old country has no historical connection with.

By the time Chinese troops start dying they won't feel it cause they would see it as a price that is worth it as long as Taiwan is reunified but when American troops start dying over a war that does not concern them Americans at home would start asking their govt questions.

Anyway U.S. always learn the hard way. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I don't see U.S. defending Taiwan in the event of war with China they can only supply weapons and logistics.

after4:
So Japan go fold hand they look, the UK. This guys do not know that even if the US government no gree enter the war, us generals and military contractors will push them into it. Make unah stop to dey over hype this china and their fake technologies that have not being tested. No be who first start fight dey win fight oh. After all the US invaded Vietnam and ran away. Talking about Afghanistan, russia also invaded them too and ran away. If chinko wan invade Taiwan make dem go ahead nah.

compton11:
Wetin concern Japan for these?

timesup234:
Coward America can't even defend her homeland from Chinese assaults'. China will take Taiwan in less than 72hrs and any attempt by vagabond America to intervene will lead to the total and complete destruction of the United Snakes of Amerikka

timesup234:
The greatest mistake Mao made was not invading Taiwan after defeating vagabond America in Korea

compton11:
let assume Chiang Kai-Shek was treacherous,was Mao Zedong also that good?