₦airaland Forum

Easter says you can put truth in the grave but it can never stay there.

Truth and forgiveness must be sacred in our dealings throughout this Easter season. My ministry has always followed in the footsteps of my late great father, Elder John Omo-Ikirodah, who preached, "To Be Christlike In All Ways And Always."

This post could have been avoided, but the significance of instilling reason in the supporters of some APC presidential hopefuls has made it crucial for me to state my case openly without fear or favour.

We Shall Abide By The Constitution Of Our Party And Give Everyone The Opportunity To Test His / Her Weight

~PRESIDENT BUHARI On APC Primaries.

With these few words from the president, it is evidently clear that the APC presidential race is not for the lily-livered.

The party made it plain following its emergency NWC meeting yesterday that the party's constitution is supreme, which Buhari reaffirmed when he delivered the new APC constitution with those calming words stated above.

The party also set aside a princely sum of 100 million Naira for the presidential form, thereby separating the men from the boys, but others argue that the cost of the form and expression of interest reflects the current inflation rate in our country.

Yesterday was a watershed day in our nation's history, as the APC appears to be on its way to hosting one of the most exciting and thrilling national conventions in history, one that will define the face of Nigerian politics for years to come.

We discussed the essence of delegates and how it might swing in important states a few days ago.

It's very terrible that supporters of Pastor Osinbajo and Rotimi Amaechi have been fooling themselves into believing that the APC will rely on a consensus mechanism to anoint their preferred candidates.

They have sunk so low in the course of presenting their arguments that they have lost sight of the values of being Christlike always and in all ways.

It grieves my heart to see people from these two political camps organizing stories and insulting attacks on the APC national leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, all in the name of better projecting their aspirants.

Thankfully, the APC put a halt to their antics yesterday by proclaiming the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE open to all parties. The chicken has finally come home to roost after the APC ruled out a consensus.

The act of fooling oneself is known as self-delusion. A guy who believes he is much wiser than he actually is is an example of self-delusion. Self-delusion is the state of having a mistaken impression about yourself or the circumstance you are in.

Yesterday, a list circulated on social media that listed some notable Yoruba sons and daughters as lead strikers in Prof Osinbajo's campaign train. The erroneous list included at least two known presidential aspirants, including Ibikunle Amosun and Kayode Fayemi.

They refuse to understand that someone with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's clout, who is respected as the National Leader of Africa's largest political party, the APC, cannot be demolished by the mere anointing of oil.

The fact that all of the contestants agree is the first condition for a consensus. The second criterion is who can beat the opposition parties, and the final criterion is who has the majority of stakeholders' support.

Who else but Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu fulfils the above description of a consensus candidate? If the truth must be disclosed, who can dare the Lion of Bourdillon in a consensus arrangement?

Now that the APC has sent the consensus agreement to the dustbin of history, let us consider Tinubu's chances and who might dare the Jagaban in the upcoming primaries.

Before I proceed any further, let me state the number of delegates to the national convention that has already been determined.

The overall number of delegates is 7,800, as follows:

North-West: 1, 924

South-West: 1,568

North-Central: 1,278

North-East: 1, 212

South-South 927

South-East: 838

The North West comprises Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

Before we get any further confused on this, let me clarify: what you get with the next government in terms of political patronage and network at this point is the effort you put in before the primaries.

When a consensus arrangement is fully rejected, the true investors in a political party consider their risks. What do we bring to the table, and what do we gain from it? Those pushing for the Vice Presidency at this point must appear to be putting up the effort.

And, since there has been precedent, the topic of a Muslim Muslim ticket is not out of place; this means that those pushing for the position of Vice President are considering all choices; politics is a game of numbers and interests.

Let me add an intriguing point here: the PDP is considering fielding a powerful Northern candidate to marshal the intensity and political savvy of people like the Jagaban so it can effectively turn the election into a North vs. South battle. This leads us to the conclusion that whichever region receives the most votes will likely win.

Now, a Muslim Muslim ticket, which I am not endorsing in any way, could be a reply to this attack, because if the PDP can be unfair to bring this up because it expects it can win the general elections then the APC may experiment with a Muslim Muslim ticket if it is the only way to eliminate the PDP's threat.

This is in line with the cliché that hunters have developed expertise in shooting without missing since birds learned to fly without perching.

Matters Arising:

The North West Zone, which has the most delegates, is in the Jagaban's secure hands. Pay attention to what's being said and you will understand that Kano state is unapologetic with the Jagaban.

Remember that the Kebbi  State Governor hosted Tinubu's meeting with the APC governors just a few weeks ago in Abuja.

We can claim that the North West is secured for the Jagaban, with Wammakko spearheading Sokoto State and Mettawale working in tandem with Tinubu.
Then if you believe El Rufai would abandon Tinubu because of his Vice Presidential ambitions, let me tell you that El Rufai is a viable option for the Northern Oligarchy if a Muslim Mulsim ticket is the only way to end the North-South conflict.

This is politics, and it has nothing to do with emotions; in fact, El Rufai is one of the most realistic politicians we have today.

The South-West is a walkover for the Jagaban, with 1,568 delegates, yet he will face the most opposition from the region due to the candidacies of Prof Osinbajo, Kayode Fayemi, and Ibikunle Amosun. Tinubu's win would be certain in the end.

Tinubu will win Lagos, and Ogun, where Osinbajo is from, will also be won by Tinubu, with Osinbajo coming second only to the Jagaban.

Ekiti would rally behind Kayode Fayemi, with Tinubu close behind, while Osun, Oyo, and Ondo would fall flat for Tinubu, just as the walls of Jehrico did for Israel's children. The South West is a foregone conclusion.

The North-Central region, which includes Benue, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and the Plateau States, would almost certainly go with the Jagaban, with Yahaya Bello winning Kogi.

The governor of Kwara State one time had an issue with his advisers over a poor reportage about him and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; the governor was enraged that his relationship with Tinubu was not being promoted as it should be.

When it comes to Tinubu, Nassarawa and Niger States are unrepentant. Tinubu would always win in Benue and Plateau, both of which have PDP governors at the helm. This is true in every state where the governor is from the opposition party. Tinubu's negotiating strength is incredible, and his appeal is more akin to "MAKING AN OFFER THEY CAN NOT REFUSE."

The states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe make up the North-East, which has just 1, 212 delegates.

The victory of Adamawa with Nuhu Ribadu and his team has been confirmed. Bauchi is set to take first place with Dogara and his entourage.

Borno's only vote against Tinubu will most likely come from Senator Ndume, who is leading Amaechi's campaign. I'd want to use this occasion to congratulate Ndume on his people's affection. I've heard you can't take away his constituency because of how he spends everything he has on the people.

With Tinubu, Professor Zulum and Shettima stand GIDIGBA. Then, as I already mentioned, any state that does not have an APC governor will support Tinubu. Although Yobe is shady, Mai Buni appears to be at ease with a Tinubu's ticket. Gombe is likely to follow suit.

Tinubu would garner at least 60% of the delegates from this zone in the worst-case scenario.

Tinubu would win at least five, if not all, of the 927 delegates up for grabs in the South-South, including Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers.

Because of Rotimi Amaechi's presidential bid, Rivers would be the battleground in the Zone, but Senator Magnus Abe's clout would give Amaechi a run for his money and influence.

Finally, the South-East, with its 838 delegates, would follow in the footsteps of the other zones. If Umahi pursues his presidential ambition, only Ebonyi State may be lost.

As previously indicated, this study would not have been necessary if Osinbajo and Amaechi's followers had not used inflammatory campaign techniques to falsify history and facts.

“Courage is poorly housed that dwells in numbers; the lion never counts the herd that are about him, nor weighs how many flocks he has to scatter.  When a lion is on the prowl for a hunt, one must be ready for a fight."

The truth has the might of a lion, you are not required to defend it. It will defend itself. When it comes to electioneering, Asiwaju has demonstrated that goodwill is far more important than wealth and fame.

Tinubu is a moving train that has since headed for its destination. Let us keep our fingers crossed and see how it goes. Only the strong will survive the war for delegates, not Facebook, Twitter or WHATSAPP  delegates.

You can bury the truth in the grave, but it will never stay there, according to Easter.

Once again my name na Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah and na me be the Principal and Chairman/CEO of Bush Radio Academy.

shigishege:
I didn't read everything stated here but I know for sure that the politically irrelevant people in nigeria obviously knows themselves hence they result into hatting Yorubas. But thier wailing has just started and most of them will hang themselves cos of depression by May ending.

oikirodah:
Assurance: Who Dares The Lion Of Bourdillon As APC Rules Out Consensus Candidacy Matters Arising By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah


https://ireporteronline.com.ng/blog/assurance-who-dares-the-lion-of-bourdillion-as-apc-rules-out-consensus-candidacy-matters-arising-by-osigwe-omo-ikirodah/

NaijaCowFarm:
This author is a neophyte.

Before Osinbajo declared, Tinubu was the winner, but matter changed the day Osinbajo declared. That day, 50% of Tinubu's supposed base shifted base. As of today, Tinubu is holdin less that 45% of what he had before Osinbajo declared.

TRUTH is that NOBODY expected Osinbajo to BOLDLY challenge Tinubu. The singular act of BOLDLY declaring demystified the Jagaban. This was what happened in Edo State.

ironheart:
Poor analysis